We’re just over a week into the 2021-22 men’s college basketball season, but we already have surprises, disappointments, victory laps and wrong predictions. While you might say it’s too early to truly evaluate anything, I would counter with the fact there’s no better time for overreactions and knee-jerk assessments.
After one weekend of the 2020-21 season, it became clear that Jeremiah Robinson-Earl was ready to be a star, and Illinois had maybe the best backcourt in college basketball. But Kentucky also looked the part of a preseason top-15 team, and Arizona State was perhaps the most entertaining team in the country. So yes, some observations that eventually look like ill-advised hot takes are going to come with the territory. Hopefully we limit those, though.
Here’s a look at several surprise narratives and potentially noteworthy trends coming out of the first week of the college basketball season — and whether they have staying power throughout the next four months.
Purdue‘s Trevion Williams is going from All-American candidate to reserve
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Trevion Williams crashes the offensive glass for a putback dunk, plus the foul.
What’s going on? Williams was one of the best big men in the country last season, putting up an efficient 15.5 points and 9.1 rebounds in 25.1 minutes. During the offseason, however, steady buzz about Zach Edey — who backed up Williams last season — continued to grow. Edey averaged 15.1 points and 14.1 rebounds in seven games with Canada at the FIBA U19 World Cup in Latvia, then dominated preseason practices. How Matt Painter planned to use these two together was a big October storyline.
Well, he simply hasn’t. Williams and Edey have played just 16 possessions together, according to Hoop Lens, with Edey displacing Williams in the starting lineup. Through three games, Edey is averaging 18.7 points, 10.3 rebounds and 2.0 blocks — with Williams putting up 11.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists in 18.3 minutes off the bench.
Will it last? As long as Williams is happy and producing off the bench, he and Edey are going to form the most imposing one-two post punch in the country. Tuesday’s performance against Wright State was the perfect example of it working: Edey started and put up 18 points and 12 boards, while Williams came off the bench to finish with 20 points and 13 rebounds. Obviously, they’re not going to combine for 38 points and 25 boards every night in Big Ten play, but it’s entirely conceivable they can each play 20 minutes or so and be dominant when they get their time on the floor.
“We make each other better, these past two years,” Williams told reporters after Tuesday’s win. “Playing against a bigger guy, a bigger defender, somebody we probably won’t see in the Big Ten besides, like, Kofi [Cockburn]. He’s made me adjust my game and stretch my game out a little more. I just appreciate him for that. We probably get anywhere if we don’t push each other in practice. There’s a reason for everything.”
Andrew Nembhard might be the best point guard in the country
What’s going on? In 2020-21, Nembhard took a back seat at Gonzaga following his transfer from Florida. He didn’t move consistently into the starting lineup until the second half of the season, and shared playmaking duties with NBA draft picks Jalen Suggs and Joel Ayayi. This season, Nembhard is taking on a bigger role when it comes to creating for teammates. And he’s excelling. Through three games, he totaled 15 assists to 5 turnovers — including 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 1 turnover in a win over top-five Texas.
While some of the other candidates for top point guard — André Curbelo (Illinois), Marcus Carr (Texas) and James Akinjo (Baylor) — have been inconsistent early, Nembhard has looked assured in running the show for the best team in the country. He’s right there in the conversation with Villanova’s Collin Gillespie.
Will it last? While he’s unlikely to score at the same clip as some of the other elite point guards nationally, Nembhard will be required to get buckets. He is capable of that, with six 20-point performances under his belt at Florida. And with Suggs, Ayayi and Corey Kispert also gone, Nembhard might have to be the one taking big shots late in games if Drew Timme isn’t free down low.
“To me, he is the best true, most steady point guard in the country,” said one opposing coach who scouted Gonzaga last season and watched them this season. “He isn’t a ‘sexy’ guy, so he has been somewhat overlooked. He doesn’t get sped up. Ever. The key for him this year is, he will need to be more aggressive and understand when he needs to go make plays when their offense needs it.”
Oscar Tshiebwe will lead the nation in rebounding
What’s going on? Entering last season, Tshiebwe looked like someone who had only a few months left in college before entering the NBA draft. He averaged a near-double-double as a freshman at West Virginia and was picked as the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year. Ten games later, Tshiebwe was in the transfer portal. Kentucky landed him shortly after, but there were questions on how good he would be in Lexington. Was he more 2019-20 Tshiebwe or 2020-21 Tshiebwe?
Three games into the season, we have an answer. Tshiebwe had 17 points and 20 rebounds in the Wildcats’ season-opening loss to Duke, then followed it up with 14 points and 20 boards against Robert Morris — and then 24 points and 16 boards against Mount St. Mary’s. Of those 56 rebounds, 27 of them came on the offensive end. He has been impossible to keep off the glass.
Will it last? Tshiebwe has been an absolute force this season, and it doesn’t seem likely to slow down. While you can point to the level of competition for his most recent double-doubles against Robert Morris and Mount St. Mary’s, he also dominated Duke and its post duo of Mark Williams and Theo John. There are very few players in college capable of handling him physically.
“He was really good on the glass,” one NBA Western Conference executive said. “He has to be an elite rebounder to make it at our level because he’s not overly skilled. Physically, he is in better shape and he is able to sustain playing at a high level longer.”
“He’s doing the same stuff he did at West Virginia, it’s just there isn’t a [Derek] Culver to vulture all the rebounds away from him,” another NBA scout said. “He still struggles to finish in traffic. A lot of his rebounds have been off of his own misses. But his numbers are impressive. And he’s a man amongst boys.”
Florida‘s defensive improvement makes it a factor in the SEC
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Colin Castleon totals 15 points, 16 rebounds and six blocks to lead Florida to a 71-55 win that is its first over No. 20 Florida State since 2013.
What’s going on? Defensive solidity was the major tentpole of Mike White’s first four seasons at Florida. The Gators ranked in the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency according to KenPom.com in each of his first four seasons, which helped them win five NCAA tournament games during that span. Over the past two seasons, that number fell. In 2020-21, when Florida entered the season with Final Four hopes, it ranked in the 60s nationally, and finished seventh in the SEC.
Florida wanted to get back to basics on the defensive end of the floor, so the Gators went out and signed the best defensive transfer class in the country. Brandon McKissic (Kansas City) and Phlandrous Fleming Jr. (Charleston) each won Defensive Player of the Year honors in their respective conferences last season, while CJ Felder (Boston College) blocked 2.2 shots per game and was one of the best defensive players in the ACC. Through two games, this team has made an impact. The Gators held Florida State to 0.81 points per possession over the weekend, including 35.1% from inside the arc.
Will it last? Some of the individual stats might slow down — i.e., Colin Castleton blocked six shots in each of his first two games — but Florida has the ingredients to be a highly effective defensive team. White has a history at that end of the floor, his top six players are veterans who know how to guard and there’s physical ability and versatility.
“They were much better defensively in that game against Florida State,” said one coach who scouted Florida last season and this season. “They have taken transfers that are much better on-ball defenders. Castleton has developed and become a hell of a rim protector. In the past, they haven’t been a good shell defensive team, and I think that still holds true from watching the two exhibitions, Elon and Florida State. They played hard. Give them credit. They guarded the s— out of Florida State.”
The ACC might have its worst season in nearly a decade
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Marcus Sasser drops 19 as Houston wins its third in a row to start the season.
What’s going on? Nearly every power conference has taken its lumps to start the season, with rampant upsets from coast to coast. The ACC has certainly fallen into that category. On the opening night of the season, Pittsburgh, Virginia and Georgia Tech all suffered surprising home losses. Then over the weekend, Louisville lost at home to Furman, North Carolina squeaked by Brown (more on that later) and Miami, Pittsburgh and Florida State all also lost.
It was unclear entering the season whether the league had a legitimate national title contender, and while Duke seems to be in that mix now, nearly everyone else is a mystery. Virginia and Florida State are going to take some time getting it together, and the likes of Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Notre Dame haven’t been tested yet. In the 2011-13 NCAA tournaments, the ACC received between 4-5 bids and didn’t have any Final Four teams. The league could be trending in that direction in 2022.
Will it last? At this point, it’s hard to see where a second potential Final Four threat comes from in the ACC. Virginia seems a long way away from having a consistently efficient offense, while North Carolina is adjusting to a new system and has real defensive problems. Florida State is filled with freshmen and transfers on the perimeter, which will take some time. Virginia Tech is a potential second-weekend team, given the Hokies’ experience and balance.
But the league has to hope someone from the middle of the pack emerges as a factor, whether it’s Louisville or Syracuse or Notre Dame or someone else. The concern is more nights like the season’s opening night, or even this past Tuesday, when every team outside of the Blue Devils was tested into the second half by inferior opponents (Virginia losing to a superior Houston team notwithstanding).
Illinois’ Coleman Hawkins could be this season’s surprise breakout star
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Illinois moves the ball around to set Coleman Hawkins up for a two-handed jam.
What’s going on? Hawkins has had a steady ascent over the past couple seasons, and it has come to a head as a sophomore in Champaign. He had a strong season as a high school senior, showed flashes in very limited minutes as a freshman and has now taken an enormous jump. Some of that might have to do with Kofi Cockburn being sidelined for the first three games due to suspension, but Hawkins is an intriguing, versatile frontcourt player. Through three games, he’s averaging 14.3 points and 9.3 rebounds, and had one game with four assists and four blocks. He has also hit three 3s during that span.
“Coleman’s problem last season was just strength. He would get tired and fatigued,” coach Brad Underwood told me before the season. “Now having an offseason, having a summer, Coleman’s a really good player. He’ll make a big jump. He got just enough to understand what he needed to do, but now he’s gained enough confidence. He’s super skilled.” That’s coming to fruition so far.
Will it last? We’ll find out a lot more next week, when Cockburn returns from suspension. Hawkins has done some of his damage this season alongside another post player in Omar Payne or Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk, which provides plenty of optimism that Hawkins will remain productive even with Cockburn on the floor. One thing to monitor is Illinois’ smaller lineups, when Underwood uses 6-foot-6 Jacob Grandison and Da’Monte Williams at the forward spots. In those circumstances, that likely leaves Hawkins on the bench.
“He’s buying into what he is instead of settling for the perimeter game,” an NBA scout said. “You can tell that he’s playing with supreme confidence. His body looks entirely changed, too. That confidence works hand-in-hand with strength. He’s improved. He’s more of a three-, four-year guy, but he’s inching in the right direction. We will see how they really feel about him when they get Kofi back.”
North Carolina has major defensive issues
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Brown Bears vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: Full Highlights
What’s going on? All the usual small sample caveats apply, but through one week, there’s just one team ranked in the top 50 at KenPom that sits outside the top 100 on adjusted defensive efficiency: North Carolina. Much of that has to do with the Tar Heels giving up 170 points in a five-day span to Brown and Charleston.
Last Friday, the Bears — who hadn’t played a Division I opponent in about 20 months — scored 50 first-half points and put up 87 total in a seven-point loss. Brown shot nearly 56% from inside the arc, turned the ball over only five times and scored 1.23 points per possession. According to KenPom’s database, that would have ranked as the second-worst defensive performance by North Carolina all of last season, with the NCAA tournament loss to Wisconsin being the only one worse. That effort wasn’t a blip, either, as the Tar Heels then went to Charleston on Tuesday night and gave up 83 points. The Cougars made 11 3s, scored in transition and led by double-digits in the first half.
Will it last? There are always going to be hiccups after a coaching change, especially one with a different system. Hubert Davis is clearly trying to modernize the offense and play two traditional bigs together less than Roy Williams did in Chapel Hill, but that could be leading to some growing pains — even if the Tar Heels look dangerous and highly efficient on the offensive end. They don’t have much time to improve defensively over the next few weeks either, with games against Purdue, either Villanova or Tennessee, Michigan and UCLA all on the docket.
“They’re not as physically imposing inside,” one coach who scouted North Carolina’s opening games said. “They look harder to guard at the other end with the skill from those guys [Dawson Garcia and Brady Manek]. Both are skilled, high IQ, both really talented and they help them a lot at the other end. But they probably give up some physicality and rim protection, they’re not as imposing inside other than [Armando] Bacot. Their ball-screen defense was shaky against Brown, and I also thought Loyola did a better job than Brown did, but with good off-ball cutting and screening, you can take advantage of some things there. They’re not where they need to be defensively, but nobody is.”
Ohio could be better despite Jason Preston’s departure
What’s going on? Ohio captured the nation’s attention last season, winning three games in three days to win the Mid-American Conference tournament and then upsetting 4-seed Virginia in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The headliner for that Bobcats team was Jason Preston, a unique 6-4 point guard with unbelievable vision and playmaking ability who was picked early in the second round of the NBA draft. With Preston gone, what was coach Jeff Boals’ plan?
Just turn to rotation guard Mark Sears, evidently. And so far, it’s worked. Sears, who started just five games last season, has seamlessly taken over the point guard duties and been terrific. Through three games, he’s averaging 19.3 points and 3.3 assists and shooting 75% from 3-point range. The Bobcats are 3-0 entering Friday’s game at Kentucky, with wins over mid-major darling Belmont and defending Horizon champ Cleveland State.
Will it last? There’s a few ways to look at this. On the one hand, Ohio finished fifth in the MAC last season, going 9-5 in conference play. So, yes, this season’s Bobcats are likely going to finish with a better league record. On the other hand, they won six of seven to end the regular season, ran through the conference tournament and then beat a good Virginia team in the national tournament. Will this season’s Bobcats team achieve those heights? It’s impossible to tell.
But Sears has helped Ohio not miss a beat from a playmaking standpoint. The double-double presence of Jason Carter — who spent three seasons at Ohio before transferring to Xavier for two and then returning to Athens — has been a huge boost inside. And Ben Vander Plas remains one of the more underrated players in the MAC.
“The thing with Mark is he played at Hargrave Military Academy, so he’s played in big games against high-level kids,” Boals told ESPN. “Nothing fazes him. He’s a laid-back, mellow kid. He shot 29% from 3 last year, but this summer he stayed and made 15,000 3s. He had a great summer, and I think the start of this season has given him a lot of confidence.
“It’s kind of crazy. Not many mid-major programs can lose their point guard early to the NBA and not have a drop-off. We’re fortunate to have Mark Sears. But everybody’s a year older. It’s their third year in the system. Last year we were so ball-screen-heavy, but this year, the balance and depth are there.”
Is the Atlantic 10 a one-bid league?
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Jaren Holmes takes off on the fast break and finishes a big dunk plus the foul.
What’s going on? The Atlantic 10 has received two or more bids to every NCAA tournament since 2005, but is already at risk of ending that streak. Only three of its 14 teams remain undefeated. Richmond, No. 2 in the preseason, lost by 11 to Utah State. Saint Louis, No. 3 in the preseason, is 3-1 but lost Player of the Year candidate Javonte Perkins for the season to injury, and also got blown out by Memphis.
The next three teams in the preseason poll — VCU, Dayton and Davidson — suffered losses to Wagner, UMass Lowell and San Francisco. Even St. Bonaventure, a preseason top-25 group that should be the clear-cut best team in the league, needed a late 17-1 run to overcome a double-digit second-half deficit against Canisius on Sunday. It’s far from an ideal start for the league.
Will it last? There are still chances for Atlantic 10 teams to build résumés before conference play begins — and Wednesday night was a huge step in the right direction. George Mason had the marquee win of the night, winning on the road at No. 20 Maryland, and Rhode Island knocked off Boston College and VCU took down Vanderbilt. The latter two victories won’t move the needle in a major way, but getting wins over the Big Ten, ACC and SEC in the same night is a boost. In particular, George Mason’s start is worth watching. The Patriots are 4-0 under new coach Kim English, with three blowout wins preceding the victory over the Terps.
Moving forward, arguably the best opportunity for a big nonconference performance (besides St. Bonaventure) might come from Richmond. The Spiders are an experienced group, and in the coming weeks, they’ll head to Drake to face a likely NCAA tournament team and then will play Maryland and either Louisville or Mississippi State in the Bahamas. They also play NC State in December. Chris Mooney’s team can’t afford too many more nonconference slip-ups, but they’ll get their swings. And, hey, if no team separates itself besides the Bonnies, there’s always the conference tournament to steal a second bid.