College basketball fans and NBA draft enthusiasts have plenty of rankings to tell them who the best teams in the men’s game are and plenty telling them who the best college players and NBA prospects are. But which teams have the most guys who will eventually make money playing basketball, whether in the NBA or elsewhere? ESPN’s draft analysts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz examined that question, identifying which teams have the most talent in the college game in 2021-22 via a formula based on our own NBA draft Top 100 rankings for 2022 as well as early evaluations of the 2023 class (hello, Emoni Bates) and beyond. In our formula, points were awarded on a weighted basis according to the position of players in the top 100.
If you’re wondering whether your team is overachieving or underachieving relative to its talent this season, here’s some hard evidence to frame that perspective. If you only care about the draft, we’ve given you a viewer’s guide for the most important college teams to which you’ll need to pay attention during the season:
2022 Top 100 players: PF/C Paolo Banchero (No. 2), PG/SG Trevor Keels (No. 14), C Mark Williams (No. 23), SF/PF A.J. Griffin (No. 26), SF Wendell Moore Jr. (No. 60)
Prospects for overseas or other pro leagues: PG Jeremy Roach, SG/SF Joey Baker, PF/C Theo John
Duke claims the top spot in our rankings as the only team with four players projected in the first round, including potential No. 1 pick Banchero. The Blue Devils have very little depth, especially in the backcourt, but have two bona fide stars and some excellent role players with a significant platform to improve their NBA standing via a deep NCAA tournament run. Once considered a potential one-and-done candidate, the junior Moore could be in line for a breakout season if he can finally find some consistency with his decision-making and outside shooting. After an injury-plagued high school career, Griffin’s skill level and feel for the game are still catching up with his physical tools, making him a candidate to return for his sophomore season. — Givony
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Check out Chet Holmgren breaking down his defensive prowess and what makes him such a skilled offensive player.
2022 Top 100 players: PF/C Chet Holmgren (No. 1), Nolan Hickman (No. 34), Drew Timme (No. 40), Andrew Nembhard (No. 56)
Other NBA scouting targets: Hunter Sallis, Julian Strawther
Prospects for overseas or other pro leagues: Kaden Perry, Ben Gregg, Rasir Bolton, Anton Watson
While not quite as loaded as Duke, Gonzaga offers a strong combination of star power at the top in projected No. 1 pick Holmgren and steady veterans in future All-American and low post savant Timme and floor general Nembhard, both of whom could solidify themselves as second-round locks with productive seasons. Freshman point guard Hickman made a great impression at the high school level and alongside close friend Banchero on the AAU circuit, but Hickman might have to wait his turn behind Nembhard before ultimately breaking out as a sophomore. Sallis, an explosive guard who came in highly touted, is more of a long-term prospect who will take time to fine-tune his skill set. The 6-foot-7 sophomore scoring wing Strawther is one to keep an eye on, as he’ll have an opportunity to prove he belongs in the prospect conversation as a 19-year-old starter under Mark Few. — Schmitz
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Auburn’s K.D. Johnson sends a sweet pass to Dylan Cardwell for a basket down low.
2022 Top 100 players: PF Jabari Smith (No. 3), SF Allen Flanigan (No. 31), C Walker Kessler (No. 37)
Other NBA scouting targets: PG/SG K.D. Johnson
Prospects for overseas or other pro leagues: PG Wendell Green Jr., C Jaylin Williams, SF/PF Devan Cambridge
Bruce Pearl’s attractive style and track record of player development has helped him lure two McDonald’s All Americans in Smith and the UNC transfer Kessler, despite the presence of a not-yet-resolved NCAA investigation. Smith has shown early fireworks that might warrant consideration for the No. 1 pick if he continues to evolve in SEC play, while the 7-foot-1 Kessler’s combination of size, shooting and shot-blocking instincts will always be attractive to NBA teams. The question marks surrounding the return of potential first-rounder Flanigan from an Achilles tendon injury will help determine how high this team’s ceiling is in March as well as the evolution of bowling ball-like scoring machine Johnson as a decision-making combo guard. — Givony
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UCLA’s Peyton Watson swats the ball out of bounds in the first half.
2022 Top 100 players: Peyton Watson (No. 8), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (No. 30), Johnny Juzang (No. 41)
Other NBA scouting targets: Jules Bernard
Prospects for overseas or other pro leagues: Tyger Campbell, Cody Riley, Jaylen Clark, Myles Johnson
UCLA sits at No. 4 in part due to the fanfare that freshman Watson brought to Westwood as a fluid 6-foot-8 wing with two-way potential. Coming off the bench on a national title contender under a hard-nosed coach like Mick Cronin, however, won’t make it easy for Watson to live up to his ranking, potentially making him more attractive for NBA teams drafting in the teens that have time to wait on his development. The Bruins aren’t just Watson from a prospect perspective, though, with scoring wing and midrange artist Juzang and tough-minded forward Jaquez both potential first-round picks. Juzang should lead the Pac-12 in scoring, while NBA scouts are drawn to Jaquez’s toughness, physicality and ability to impact winning without much offensive volume. Campbell is one of the most underrated guards in the country, and 6-foot-7 lefty guard Bernard has turned into an invaluable player for Cronin on the perimeter by refining his shooting and decision-making. — Schmitz
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Kennedy Chandler shows off the swagger with deep 3-pointer
2022 Top 100 players: PG Kennedy Chandler (No. 17), SF Josiah-Jordan James (No. 44) SG Justin Powell (No. 65)
Other NBA scouting targets: PF Brandon Huntley-Hatfield
Prospects for overseas or other pro leagues: PF/C Olivier Nkamhoua, PG/SG Santiago Vescovi, SG Victor Bailey Jr., PF John Fulkerson, C Uros Plavsic, SG Quentin Diboundje, PG Zakai Zeigler
Rick Barnes has made Knoxville a destination for NBA scouts with the success he has had in developing pros. He has one of his deepest, most talented teams ever this season, which includes the No. 1 point guard recruit in the freshman class in Chandler. Fellow McDonald’s All American Huntley-Hatfield will have a chance to show he is worthy of one-and-done consideration, as well, while current second-round candidates Powell and James have much to gain from a NBA standpoint by helping the Vols make a deep NCAA tournament run. — Givony
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Jalen Duren gets the ball in transition and converts at the rim despite being fouled.
2022 Top 100 players: PF/C Jalen Duren (No. 5), SF/PF Earl Timberlake (No. 43)
Other NBA scouting targets: Emoni Bates, Josh Minott
Prospects for overseas or other pro leagues: Landers Nolley II, Lester Quinones, DeAndre Williams
Although not exactly flush with high-end 2022 prospects outside of Duren, Memphis gets a boost from projected 2023 top-3 pick Bates, who isn’t draft eligible next year given his age. Bates and Duren make up one of the more entertaining pick-and-roll pairings in the country. The 17-year-old Bates offers deep shot-making and underrated passing chops, while Duren is a physical, explosive finisher who can space the floor vertically and offer the type of defensive versatility NBA teams covet. Memphis’ other top-100 prospect, Timberlake, is a physical wing who can handle and pass and has the strength to defend multiple positions, but he needs to show any promise as a shooter to prove he is worthy of draft consideration. The 18-year-old, 6-foot-8 forward Minott is the long-term prospect to track in Memphis. While still evolving as a shooter, ball handler and decision-maker, the Jamaican-born Minott is long, explosive and active, with the tools NBA teams look for in combo forwards. — Schmitz
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Daimion Collins elevates for a fast-break dunk vs. Robert Morris.
2022 Top 100 players: PG TyTy Washington Jr. (No. 11), PF/C Daimion Collins (No. 28)
Other NBA scouting targets: C Oscar Tshiebwe, SF Bryce Hopkins
Prospects for overseas or other pro leagues: SG Kellan Grady, SG Davion Mintz, PF Keion Brooks Jr., PF Jacob Toppin, PG Sahvir Wheeler, SG Dontaie Allen, PF/C Lance Ware, SG CJ Fredrick
After a disappointing season, John Calipari went all in on the transfer portal, leading to by far the oldest team he has had in Lexington. That could directly correlate to the fewest number of Calipari players who will hear their names called on draft night since 2007, due to the spotty track record of transfers in the NBA. Kentucky’s complement of picks will depend in part on the evolution of raw but ultra-talented freshman Collins, as there is not a great deal of NBA intrigue around Kentucky’s upperclassmen (who could nonetheless help the team win plenty of games). Kentucky has already signaled its intent to shift back to the Wildcats’ previous strategy centered around blue-chip freshman recruits by hauling in the No. 1 recruiting class in the country in 2022. — Givony
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Alabama’s JD Davison races up the floor and dishes a pass to Jaden Shackelford in the corner for 3.
2022 Top 100 players: PG JD Davison (No. 15), Keon Ellis (No. 59), Jahvon Quinerly (No. 62)
Other NBA scouting targets: C Charles Bediako, SF Darius Miles, SG Jaden Shackelford
Prospects for overseas or other pro leagues: SF/PF Noah Gurley, SF/PF Juwan Gary
Davison is the headliner here as one of the most explosive guards in the country who is perfectly built for Nate Oats’ up-tempo offense. The 6-foot-3 Davison has a chance to be the first point guard selected come June if he is able to show enough promise as a perimeter shooter — his biggest question mark — to go along with his dynamic style and impressive floor game. The 21-year-old Ellis is the breakout candidate in line for a big senior season thanks to his explosiveness, improved shooting stroke, defensive energy and elite positional rebounding as a springy 6-foot-6 guard. Expect 22-year-old point guard Quinerly to also enter the draft conversation with a big junior year. An absolute wizard with the ball who is almost impossible for opposing guards to keep in front, Quinerly gets wherever he wants on the floor, can shoot or pass off the dribble and has the type of touch necessary to finish in the trees at 6-foot-1. Sharpshooter Shackelford should be in line for a productive season scoring the ball, while Miles is a long-term prospect to track given his size (6-foot-6) and shooting stroke at just 20 years old. — Schmitz
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James Akinjo shows off his passing skills to set Matthew Mayer up for the two-handed slam.
2022 Top 100 players: PF Jeremy Sochan (No. 32), SF Matthew Mayer (No. 39), SG Adam Flagler (No. 92), C Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (No. 100)
Other NBA scouting targets: Kendall Brown, Langston Love
Prospects for overseas or other pro leagues: PG LJ Cryer, PG James Akinjo, C Flo Thamba, C Dain Dainja,
The reigning national champions built their winning culture around player development and structure rather than relying on recruiting top-tier NBA talent, and their roster this season continues to reflect that. Another deep NCAA tournament run could help Scott Drew develop his first one-and-done first-rounder, with forwards Sochan and Brown both candidates to do so depending on how they evolve throughout the campaign. Last season’s success has already had a marked influence on the recruiting trail, as Drew reeled in his highest-ranked prospect ever in Keyonte George, a candidate for the No. 1 spot in the 2022 class. — Givony
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Moussa Diabate throws down powerful dunk vs. Buffalo Bulls
2022 Top 100 players: SF Caleb Houstan (No. 6), PG DeVante’ Jones (No. 73)
Other NBA scouting targets: C Moussa Diabate, SF/PF Terrance Williams II, G Kobe Bufkin
Prospects for overseas or other pro leagues: C Hunter Dickinson, PG Eli Brooks, PG Frankie Collins
Houstan is Michigan’s lone projected first-rounder and one of the safest prospects in the draft as a 6-foot-8 forward who spaces the floor, defends his position and doesn’t need much volume to have an impact. Coastal Carolina transfer Jones opened some eyes at the G League combine with his defensive energy, and he could certainly emerge as a potential second-round candidate or popular undrafted free agent if he proves he can run the show effectively and make enough 3s to force guards over the screen. One potential breakout candidate is 19-year-old French big man Diabate, A mainstay on the FIBA circuit, Diabate is a 6-foot-10 energizer who runs the floor incredibly hard, can switch ball screens, protects the rim at a decent clip and has improved as a passer during his time at IMG Academy. Diabate will be tough to keep off the floor this season and projects as a two-and-done prospect. One other name to watch is sophomore forward Williams. With the NBA starved for wing defenders who can make a shot, Williams fits a clear prototype as a long-armed 6-foot-7 forward who defends multiple positions, plays with great energy and shows potential as a standstill shooter. Likely one of the most productive bigs in college basketball, Dickinson appears better suited for the international game given his struggles defensively and lack of shooting offensively. — Schmitz
Next 5:
Purdue Boilermakers (148)
Arizona Wildcats (126.5)
Kansas Jayhawks (125)
Milwaukee Panthers (94)
Michigan State Spartans (82)
Alternative pathways:
G League Ignite (350.5)
Overtime Elite (213.5)
New Zealand Breakers (Australian NBL) (155)
Mega Mozzart (Serbia) (141.5)
Unicaja Malaga (Spain) (88)
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.