College football coaching showdown: Is Oregon or Washington the better job?

NCAAF

The Oregon-Washington rivalry doesn’t garner as much national attention as Michigan-Ohio State, Alabama-Auburn or Oklahoma-Texas, but the roots of hostility run just as deep.

The bordering schools don’t like one another, and their series has featured plenty of flashpoints, as well as success on both sides. Since 1990, Washington and Oregon have combined for 16 Pac-12 championships (outright or shared), including the past three and five of the past seven. They are the only Pac-12 schools to appear in the College Football Playoff: Oregon reached the inaugural title game in 2014, and Washington went to the semifinals two years later.

The third installment of ESPN’s coaching jobs showdown heads to the Pacific Northwest. After examining Oklahoma-Texas and Alabama-Ohio State, Washington and Oregon are up next.

Despite the schools’ proximity and history, each job has several distinctive features, including Washington’s leafy, lakeside location appropriately dubbed “The Greatest Setting,” and Oregon’s uniform combos and special connection to Nike.

Both schools have recruited at a high level under multiple coaches, and receive some of the best fan support on the West Coast. Both also aren’t immune to mediocrity.

Like the other pairings, these two coaching jobs will be evaluated in four areas: history (both recent and long-term); resources and administrative support; recruiting location and access to talent; and expectations and climate around the program. In addition to my own research, I spoke to coaches and other sources familiar with each program to gain a better understanding from the inside.

So, will it be #GoDucks or #BowDown? Let’s begin.

History

Past 10 years: Oregon 93-34; Washington 81-43

Oregon entered the decade in the middle of a historically great run under coach Chip Kelly, who went 46-7 with three Pac-12 championships, three top-4 finishes and a national runner-up between 2009 and 2012. The program’s success continued under Mark Helfrich with another national runner-up in 2014, before an 11-14 stretch during the transition from Helfrich to Willie Taggart to Mario Cristobal, who has again elevated the program with consecutive league titles and a Rose Bowl championship (plus a No. 5 AP finish) in 2019. Oregon has four AP top 5 finishes in the past decade, while Washington has only one (2016).

Washington hasn’t had a losing season, like Oregon did in 2016, and the Huskies established stability under coach Chris Petersen (55-26 from 2014 to 2019). Petersen guided Washington to the CFP in his third season and went 32-9 with two Pac-12 titles and three AP top-16 finishes between 2016 and 2018. The Huskies made bowls every year from 2010 to 2019 and would have continued the streak last year if not for the COVID-shortened season. A COVID-19 outbreak at Washington ended the team’s 2020 season after four games, and allowed Oregon to represent the North Division in the Pac-12 title game. Washington went 3-6 in bowls the past decade, falling in the Peach (CFP semifinal), Fiesta and Rose.

Past 50 years: Washington 361-231-3; Oregon 342-248-4

Here’s where Washington stands out. The Huskies won or shared seven conference championships between 1977 and 1995. Oregon’s 1994 Pac-10 title, meanwhile, marked its first since 1957. Coach Don James led Washington to a national title in 1991 and six AP top-10 finishes between 1977 and 1991. After a lull in the mid-1970s, Washington averaged 8.4 wins per season from 1977 to 2001. Then, the program fell off a cliff, going 17-54 from 2004 to 2009 and bottoming out at 0-12 in 2008. While another Washington collapse seems highly unlikely in the next few decades, the program can’t erase the sorry stretch. Oregon also hasn’t been immune to struggles, logging eight consecutive losing seasons from 1971 to 1978 and looking utterly mediocre through the 1980s and early 1990s until coach Mike Bellotti started to break through and Nike chairman Phil Knight became more directly involved. Oregon has had only two losing seasons since 1993.

“Phil Knight decided Oregon was going to be relevant in football,” a Power 5 coach said. “And over the course of the next two decades, it’s become that. It’s the ‘Field of Dreams’ thing.'”

The 50-year history between the programs is incredibly close, although Washington ranks second among original Pac-8/Pac-10 teams in win percentage (.609), while Oregon is fourth (.579). Oregon and Washington have played 48 times since 1971, with each team winning 24 contests. Washington is 16-16 in bowls since 1971, while Oregon is 13-15. Oregon recently has been better, and since 1991, the Ducks’ highs have generally been higher than Washington’s. They also avoided a truly awful stretch, unlike the Huskies.

Edge: Oregon

Resources/administrative support

Both Oregon and Washington are striking places to watch football. Washington’s Husky Stadium is one of the most beautiful football venues on the planet, both structurally and because of its surroundings. The school has made the necessary investments, namely a $280 million stadium renovation completed in 2013. Washington completed a $1 million locker room upgrade in 2017. All football operations are based in the stadium, capitalizing on an incredible view and location.

“It’s probably one of the prettiest gameday settings you can see,” a Pac-12 administrator said. “A lot of their coaches have boats and they take recruits on the lake. I don’t know if they have a true ceiling. They’ve got great facilities, you’re in Seattle. They should be more dominant than they are.”

Washington also has invested in coaches, hiring Petersen from Boise State and paying his staff well. In 2018, Washington made defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake the highest-paid assistant in team history ($1.4 million), and promoted him to succeed Petersen after the 2019 season. Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski ($1 million) was the Pac-12’s highest-paid assistant in 2020 before leaving for the same role at Texas. Washington has stable department leadership with Jen Cohen, who has served as athletic director since May 2016 after a lengthy career in fundraising and development. She joined Washington’s athletics staff in 1998.

The difference between Oregon and other well-resourced programs is the visibility of its investments. The influence of Nike and Knight, an Oregon alum, can be seen in and around Autzen Stadium. As a Pac-12 coordinator noted, “It’s over the top. Some of it’s just gross over the top, as far the opulence. But they set you up for success in recruiting.”

“On a national scale, they have a better brand than Washington, as far as what Phil Knight and Nike have done,” an industry source added. “Oregon’s just out there more. Oregon is more flash, flash, flash. If Washington had the same branding message, people would be like, ‘Washington, of course, is the better job.’ But Oregon has really created a national brand in the last 15 years.”

Long before Clemson’s nap room and slide, LSU’s locker-room movie theater or Northwestern’s lakefront view, Oregon opened a building that changed the college football facilities game. In 2013, Oregon unveiled a Football Performance Center that drew national attention from outlets such as The New York Times, which described “rugs woven by hand in Nepal, couches made in Italy and Brazilian hardwood underfoot in the weight room that is so dense, designers of this opulent palace believe it will not burn.”

“Oregon, to me, has been a really impressive case in marketing,” a Power 5 coach said. “That was Phil: We’re going to be relevant, we’re going to push the envelope, it’s Joey Harrington in Times Square, and facilities, facilities, facilities. That changed it. They’re the Texas of the West.”

The facility, combined with the ever-changing uniform combinations and other Nike-branded accessories — some of which Oregon can access before other programs — provides a distinct branding look. Oregon athletes should have strong opportunities with name, image and likeness.

“They’re all aligned because they’re serving one master,” a Pac-12 insider said. “So whatever that person wants, that’s what’s going to happen. Oregon has one leader, no matter who the president is.”

Knight is 83, though, and how Oregon’s relationship with Nike evolves in the coming decades will be interesting. Oregon’s athletic department has strong and stable leadership with Rob Mullens, the school’s AD since 2010. Mullens attended West Virginia, spent years in Kentucky’s athletic department and has been mentioned for AD vacancies in the SEC. But he has remained in Eugene and begins his second decade at the helm.

“An excellent athletic director,” an industry source said of Mullens. “The investment in their athletic program, it’s been obvious. If Oregon hadn’t done that, what makes them different from Arizona State? They’ve proven to double-down and really invest in all their athletics.”

Oregon also has increased its investments in the staff. The Ducks made the splashiest coordinator hire of the 2019-2020 offseason by landing Joe Moorhead, previously an SEC head coach at Mississippi State.

Edge: Oregon

Recruiting/access to talent

Washington celebrates and promotes its location for good reason. While the scene around Husky Stadium — boats, water, plenty of green — doesn’t look very urban, Washington’s campus is located only miles from the Space Needle and downtown Seattle. The program directly accesses the Seattle-Tacoma recruiting market, and often lands most of the state’s top recruits, such as recent All-America defensive back Budda Baker (Bellevue). Sam Huard, ESPN’s top-rated quarterback recruit in the 2021 class, is from Burien, Washington (his father, Damon, and uncle, Brock, both played quarterback for UW). Washington signed four of the eight ESPN 300 selections from the state in its 2021 class, landed three of the state’s top four recruits in 2020 and two of the top three in 2019.

Like all Pac-12 programs not located in California, Washington doesn’t have enough local talent to fill out its roster and must recruit the Golden State and other areas. Washington has a long history of California recruits, including Warren Moon, Napoleon Kaufman, Lincoln Kennedy and Dave Hoffmann. Being located near a major airport gives Washington a clear advantage over the other Pac-12 schools in the Northwest, including Oregon.

“I’d probably take the Washington job,” an industry source said. “Proximity to good kids, a city, the campus at Washington crushes the campus at Oregon. If I’m a kid, which place would I rather be with culture and life going on? I would rather be in Seattle.”

Eugene is about 110 miles south of Portland, and a two-hour drive from the Portland airport. There are nonstop flights from Eugene to most key Pac-12 recruiting areas — Seattle, San Francisco, Denver, Los Angeles, Phoenix — but not as many as Seattle has. Oregon still does a very effective job of filling its roster with mostly out-of-state talent.

Although Kelly was not a recruit-first coach, he found standout players from Texas (LaMichael James, Josh Huff), California (De’Anthony Thomas, Kenjon Barner) and other areas who thrived in his cutting-edge schemes. Cristobal, long regarded as a nationally elite recruiter, has landed top-10 recruiting classes in two of the past three seasons, adding standouts such as Kayvon Thibodeaux, ESPN’s top-rated prospect in the 2019 class (Westlake Village, Calif.) and Justin Flowe, ESPN’s No. 10 player in the 2020 class (Upland, Calif). In addition to California, Oregon also has accessed states such as Alabama, Arizona, Maryland and even Nebraska (the Ducks’ top-rated 2021 recruit Avante Dickerson is from Omaha).

But Oregon has to work at recruiting more than a school like Washington, which signed ESPN’s No. 15 class from 2018 to 2020 before slipping to No. 23 this year.

“Not everybody fits Oregon,” a Pac-12 administrator said. “They can go after the top of the top, but not all of the top like what they’re selling. It’s a very specific person who likes that flash. It rains a ton, it’s dreary most of the year, Eugene’s a decent city but it’s not out of this world, crazy cool. They do have some limitations. Despite the uniforms, despite the facilities, it cuts down on what kids actually want to go to Eugene, Oregon.”

Several people noted Oregon needs coaches like Cristobal, who never let off the recruiting gas pedal, to overcome its location and other issues.

“There’s one drawback and it’s location, relative to having in-state kids that can win at the highest level,” a Pac-12 assistant said. “But because of the influence of Nike and because of what Mario does, that changes the equation big time.”

Edge: Washington

Expectations/program climate

A common critique of the Pac-12 is that its fan bases aren’t invested enough, and are easily swayed by other entertainment options, both in sports and beyond. Washington and Oregon fans don’t fit in this category. They remind me more of the groups in leagues like the Big Ten and SEC whose devotion is rarely, if ever, questioned. In College Football News’ five-year attendance study from 2015 to 2019 (the Pac-12 did not allow fans in 2020), Washington led the league with 66,527 fans per game. Oregon ranked fourth in attendance but first in capacity, consistently selling out 54,000-seat Autzen Stadium. Both stadiums are extremely loud, especially Autzen, and difficult for visiting teams.

Oregon is a new-money program, boosted by Nike dollars at a time where cool uniforms and swanky facilities are important. Some label their fans as entitled, while others think the “O” symbol flaunted at Ducks games should stand for obnoxious.

“Some of the things you see and hear in that stadium, it’s a different kind of place,” a Pac-12 coach said.

Oregon’s success the past few decades has also sparked a lack of patience with coaches. In December 2016, Helfrich became the first Oregon football coach fired since 1976. The move came just two years after he had the Ducks in the national championship game, behind Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota. If Oregon doesn’t blow a 31-0 lead in the Alamo Bowl in 2015, it finishes 10-3. But after a 4-8 clunker in 2016, the Ducks were done with Helfrich.

“That’s the new Oregon,” a Power 5 coach said. “That’s when everything changed. That’s a significant decision that puts you in a different category.”

Washington football isn’t the biggest show in Seattle, but fan support there has been strong over the years. Washington led the Pac-12 in revenue in the most recent fiscal year reported, edging Oregon for the top spot.

The foundation is very strong at UW, which celebrated the 100th year of Husky Stadium in 2020 and has a Rose Bowl history that stretches back to the mid-1920s.

“Washington has probably a more traditional approach,” a Pac-12 coach said. “You’ve got the city. You’ve got a big academic institution, good school, a lot of history, and still very interested in winning. Kind of a blue-blood mentality.”

Washington has been somewhat understated in the Seattle market. Petersen disliked social media and restricted access to his program. He also didn’t get wrapped up in recruiting rankings or hype, and instead focused on OKGs — Our Kinda Guys — who he felt could lead Washington to the top. But there’s a sense that Washington could do more with the location and environment around its program.

Lake, a charismatic personality who is good with the media and leans into recruiting, has a chance to combine the best parts of Petersen’s philosophy — he coached under Petersen from 2012 to 2019 — with a more fresh, more visible approach.

Edge: Washington

Conclusion

Oregon has overcome limitations with location and even long-term history — the program was thoroughly mediocre in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and half of the 1990s — to become a formidable, flashy and noticeable program the past 20-plus years. Knight and the Nike connection have been a game-changer in branding, along with what Chip Kelly did on the field. But it’s clear Oregon needs a recruiting-centric coach like Cristobal to keep pace in personnel. The question is whether Oregon holds an edge long term or slips behind programs with greater access to talent.

Washington, meanwhile, is fitted with more natural advantages. Next to USC, no West Coast program has a better combination of long-term, high-level tradition, a favorable location, beautiful facilities and strong fan support. But things seem too quiet in Montlake right now. As one person told me, “There’s something off there. They aren’t finding ways to get it done.”

Oregon has found the formula to be an annual Pac-12 contender and, most likely, a more frequent future CFP participant. But there’s more untapped potential with the Washington job.

“Who should have a better opportunity? Washington,” a Power 5 coach said. “What couldn’t they do if they decided? Where would they be behind Oregon? Nowhere. You’ve got a better foundation.”

Better job: Washington

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