For the first time since the first week of the season, we’ve made a change in the top two of the Power Rankings.
It has been Gonzaga then Baylor all season — and for most of the season, it looked like there was an enormous gap between the top two and everyone else. But Michigan exited its COVID-19 pause looking as good as it has all season, while Baylor really struggled in its first two games out of its own pause. Despite the momentum building for the Wolverines, Baylor would have remained solidly at No. 2 as long as it didn’t lose — but the Bears suffered their first setback of the season on Saturday night to Kansas, so it was time to officially move Michigan to No. 2.
Breaking down résumés, it’s tough to pick against Michigan. The Wolverines are ahead of Baylor in strength of record and KenPom, and behind the Bears in BPI and Sagarin. They’re No. 2 in NET, one spot ahead of Baylor. Michigan is 7-1 in Quadrant 1 games and 5-0 in Quadrant 2 games, compared to Baylor’s 6-1 and 2-0 records, respectively. Granted, Michigan’s lone loss — by 18 at Minnesota — looks significantly worse now than it did then, but that doesn’t stop them from moving up to No. 2.
Let’s pump the brakes on the Michigan No. 1 talk, though. Gonzaga is still atop the nation in nearly every relevant metric, and it’s 7-0 against Quadrant 1 opponents, 5-0 against Quadrant 2 opponents and still hasn’t lost a game yet.
So there won’t be a change at the top just yet, but it’s time to welcome Michigan into the top two.
Team of the Week: Arkansas Razorbacks
Had the week ended before Sunday, Michigan State would have been the easy choice for this award. The Spartans’ 48-hour stretch between Tuesday night and Thursday night, when they knocked off Illinois and Ohio State in back-to-back games, was as impressive a two-game run as anyone will have this season. But then they lost by 18 at Maryland on Sunday, and their terrific week ended with a bit of a sour taste.
But Arkansas is absolutely deserving to be the pick. The Razorbacks had one of the best wins of any team in the SEC this season, hammering Alabama in the second half en route to an 81-66 win. There was no letdown effort on Saturday, either, with another big second-half performance in an 83-75 win over LSU. Arkansas outscored the Crimson Tide and Tigers by a combined 93-66 margin in the second half of their games this week.
Eric Musselman’s team has now won nine straight SEC games (its lone loss in the last 10 games came at Oklahoma State in the Big 12/SEC Challenge). Musselman has this team humming, as he has found the right mix of transfers, freshmen and returnees in his rotation. The Razorbacks are making a legitimate push for a top-three seed and are playing their best basketball at the right time.
Player of the Week: Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Maybe Cunningham heard the talk about Evan Mobley being the best freshman in the country or making a case to be the No. 1 pick in this year’s NBA draft. Because his performance against No. 7 Oklahoma on Saturday was one of the best individual games we’ve seen from anyone this season: 40 points, 11 rebounds, 12-for-21 from the field, 13-for-14 from the free throw stripe, two blocks and three steals — all in a 94-90 overtime win.
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Cade Cunningham notches 40 points and 11 rebounds as Oklahoma State edges Oklahoma 94-90.
Cunningham was terrific, making big play after big play down the stretch at both ends of the floor. That game would have been enough on its own to give Cunningham the Player of the Week honor, but the star freshman also had 20 points and five rebounds in an overtime win over Texas Tech on Monday. Taking care of the ball has been an issue for Cunningham this season, and that didn’t change in the two games this past week, but his overall production greatly outweighs the turnovers. He ranks in the top 10 of the Big 12 in usage rate, total shooting percentage, free throw rate and 3-point percentage. Jared Butler is going to win Big 12 Player of the Year, but Cunningham is closing the regular season on a tear.
Win of the Week: Kansas Jayhawks 71, Baylor Bears 58
How can it be anything else? Baylor suffered its first loss of the season on Saturday night, falling at the hands of a resurgent Kansas team. The Jayhawks were in control for most of the game, never leading by fewer than three points in the second half. They were elite on the defensive end, holding Baylor to its lowest point total of the season and forcing the Bears into a 6-for-26 night from the 3-point line.
Baylor’s three-week COVID pause certainly had an effect; the Bears simply had no legs late in the game when they were trying to cut into the lane. But Kansas’ defense also played a major role, as did its domination on the glass. The Jayhawks outrebounded Baylor 48-28 and grabbed 14 offensive rebounds.
David McCormack was terrific, scoring 20 points — including 14 in the first half — before fouling out. Kansas has now won six of its last seven games and is playing some of the best basketball in the Big 12, if not the country. This win is going to vault Kansas into the top-three-seed discussion.
Coach of the Week: Josh Pastner, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
When Georgia Tech lost its first two games of the season to Georgia State and Mercer at home, it looked like the preseason optimism for the Yellow Jackets was a mistake. Three months later, the Yellow Jackets have played their way into the NCAA tournament hunt after winning four straight games — including wins this past week at Virginia Tech and over Syracuse.
Moses Wright was sensational for Georgia Tech in the two wins, going for 26 points and 10 rebounds against the Hokies and dominating Syracuse’s 2-3 zone en route to 31 points and 16 rebounds, with nine of those on the offensive end. The Yellow Jackets are squarely in the bubble picture right now. This is a team ranked in the 30s at KenPom and in the NET and owns a marquee win over Florida State. The Yellow Jackets have four seniors starters, including Wright and Jose Alvarado, one of the best point guards in the ACC. Pastner and Georgia Tech have a chance to truly place their stamp on the national stage against Duke on Tuesday.
Three teams with questions
Seton Hall Pirates: Losses to Georgetown and Butler last week put Kevin Willard’s team squarely on the bubble. There’s not a ton of meat on the Pirates’ at-large résumé, with the best win coming at UConn. There’s zero room for error now.
Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers’ at-large hopes are essentially finished at this point. Losing at Rutgers and vs. Michigan isn’t an issue in a vacuum, but they’re now 12-12 overall and 7-10 in the Big Ten with road games at Michigan State and Purdue remaining. Can they win three or four in a row?
Belmont Bruins: Belmont entered this past week with a 21-game winning streak and exit it with a two-game losing streak. The Bruins lost by 14 at Eastern Kentucky and then fell in overtime at Morehead State. They’re still the Ohio Valley champs, and both losses came without leading scorer Nick Muszynski, but at-large hopes are now nonexistent.
Power Rankings
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-0)
Previous ranking: 1
This week: None
ESPN Stats & Information included several great nuggets in its piece on Gonzaga’s undefeated regular season on Saturday night. Over the past 60 seasons, only one program has produced a 21-game streak of double-digit wins. That program is Gonzaga — and the Zags have now done it three times. And this season’s Bulldogs are the first AP No. 1 team to win 21 games in a row by double digits. Sure, share all your caveats about their lack of competition in the WCC — but this is a historically good team no matter which way you slice it. If the season ended today, they would be the second-best team in KenPom’s database, with only the 38-1 Kentucky team in 2014-15 ahead of this season’s Zags. That will be tested starting in two weeks, but they’re still very much the favorite to win it all.
2. Michigan Wolverines (18-1)
Previous ranking: 3
This week: vs. Illinois (Tuesday), vs. Michigan State (Thursday), at Michigan State (Sunday)
After Hunter Dickinson dominated Ohio State last weekend, all eyes were on the Wolverines’ freshman big man this past week — and he passed his tests in impression fashion. Dickinson won his battle against Iowa’s Luka Garza, finishing with 14 points and eight boards and holding Garza to 6-for-19 shooting. Against Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis, Dickinson had 13 points and seven rebounds, while Jackson-Davis finished with just 10 points on 3-for-12 shooting and four boards. Kofi Cockburn is up next for Dickinson. I watched Dickinson more than a dozen times at the high school level — he was a touted prospect since he was younger — and it was obvious he had the skill set to be in the mix for the No. 1 ranking … if this was 20 years ago. But could his old-school game translate to today’s game? Juwan Howard has obviously done a good job utilizing a system to get the best out of Dickinson, but that skill set has also translated. He’s walling up defensively, crafty with his left hand with his back to the basket and is a high-level passer and rebounder. Sometimes good players are just good players and will find a way to thrive.
3. Baylor Bears (18-1)
Previous ranking: 2
This week: at West Virginia (Tuesday), vs. Oklahoma State (Thursday), vs. Texas Tech (Sunday)
The unbeaten run came to an end on Saturday night at Kansas, but the signs were there on Tuesday against Iowa State, too. Against the Cyclones, Baylor’s high-level players were simply able to make enough high-level plays at both ends of the floor to bring the Bears back into the game and grab a win. That wasn’t enough against Kansas. The biggest issue in the two games was Baylor’s inability to make shots from the perimeter. The Bears rank No. 1 nationally in 3-point shooting, making 43.2% of their attempts entering the weekend. But in the two games since returning from its pause, Baylor went 14-for-51 from behind the arc, including 6-for-26 on Saturday night. The Bears have the nation’s best backcourt, but Jared Butler really struggled against Marcus Garrett, and there wasn’t enough firepower elsewhere.
4. Illinois Fighting Illini (18-6)
Previous ranking: 5
This week: at Michigan (Tuesday), at Ohio State (Saturday)
Tuesday could have been a turning point in Illinois’ quest for a 1-seed. The Fighting Illini lost to Michigan State, but they also lost Wooden Award candidate Ayo Dosunmu to a facial injury. But in stepped Andre Curbelo, and Illinois didn’t miss a beat, cruising past Nebraska and hanging on late at Wisconsin. Curbelo came off the bench in both games, as he has done all season, but he saw a season-high 31 minutes against Nebraska and then played 25 minutes against Wisconsin. He had 10 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists against the Cornhuskers, and then followed it up with 17 points — including some late free throws — and seven rebounds to hold on against the Badgers. There’s no timetable for Dosunmu’s return, but now Illinois goes into one of the most difficult weeks for any team to face this season: at Michigan, at Ohio State.
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (18-7)
Previous ranking: 4
This week: vs. Illinois (Saturday)
With three losses in a row, the Buckeyes drop one spot behind Illinois in the Power Rankings — and fall behind in the race for the fourth 1-seed as well. They do own a head-to-head win over the Fighting Illini, but they’ve also now lost three more games in Big Ten play and have defeats to Northwestern, Minnesota and Michigan State. Metrics are also on Illinois’ side in the debate. But Ohio State can get back on track this weekend when it faces Illinois for a second time. A sweep of Illinois would be hard to ignore on Selection Sunday. The Buckeyes will have to slow down Kofi Cockburn on the inside; Cockburn, Luka Garza, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Hunter Dickinson and Trevion Williams have all hurt Ohio State’s interior defense. At the other end, the Buckeyes have to start making shots from the perimeter. They’re just 9-for-33 from behind the arc in the past two games.
6. Alabama Crimson Tide (19-6)
Previous ranking: 6
This week: vs. Auburn (Tuesday), at Georgia (Saturday)
Alabama earned a split with a road loss at Arkansas and a road win at Mississippi State, but offensive issues continue to plague the Crimson Tide. They’re not making 3s at the same clip they were earlier in the season, and they’ve failed to hit one point per possession in seven of their last nine games. The performance of John Petty Jr. and Joshua Primo are microcosms of Alabama’s offense of late. During the Crimson Tide’s winning streak, Petty was averaging 15.3 points and shooting 52.5% from 3. In the last eight games, in which they’re just 5-3, Petty is averaging 10.8 points and shooting 30% from 3. It’s a similar story for Primo, who played only eight minutes in Saturday’s game. He averaged 10.5 points and shot 44.4% from 3 during the winning streak; that’s down to 6.5 points and 37.5% from 3 in the past eight games.
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John Petty Jr. swats a shot off the backboard on defense, then Jahvon Quinerly feeds James Rojas for an Alabama jam.
7. Iowa Hawkeyes (18-7)
Previous ranking: 7
This week: vs. Nebraska (Thursday), vs. Wisconsin (Sunday)
Sunday’s win in Columbus over Ohio State was an awfully impressive bounce-back performance after the 22-point defeat at Michigan on Thursday. Iowa came out ready to battle on the road, hit the Buckeyes in the mouth early and withstood any runs to come away with a comprehensive 16-point win. Luka Garza was excellent and Joe Wieskamp provided his usual complementary scoring, but role players Joe Toussaint and Keegan Murray provided solid minutes off the bench for the Hawkeyes. Toussaint had seven assists in just 14 minutes, while Murray had eight points and five boards. It was another stellar defensive effort, as well. Iowa held Ohio State to its lowest scoring output of the season — it was the fifth time in seven games the Hawkeyes have held an opponent under one point per possession.
8. West Virginia Mountaineers (17-6)
Previous ranking: 10
This week: vs. Baylor (Tuesday), vs. TCU (Thursday), vs. Oklahoma State (Saturday)
After a couple of bumps in the road following Oscar Tshiebwe‘s departure, West Virginia has hit its stride with its smaller lineup. The Mountaineers have won eight of their last nine Big 12 games, their lone loss coming by one point against Oklahoma in mid-February. According to BartTorvik.com, the Mountaineers are No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency since Tshiebwe left, after ranking No. 36 with him. They were No. 155 in free throw rate with Tshiebwe, No. 11 without. And the biggest change without Tshiebwe has been the perimeter shooting. They shot just 30.3% from the 3-point line with Tshiebwe in the fold; since he left, they’re making 3-pointers at a 40.4% clip, good enough for No. 13 in the country over that span. Defensively, they’ve regressed a bit, but the uptick offensively from improved shooting has more than made up for it.
9. Kansas Jayhawks (18-8)
Previous ranking: 13
This week: vs. UTEP (Thursday)
There have been two big talking points when it comes to Kansas’ recent stretch of six wins in seven games: David McCormack and the team’s improvement defensively. McCormack has been a real factor throughout most of Big 12 play after an inconsistent start to the campaign, but his 20 points against Baylor on Saturday night was a statement performance. Over the past seven games, McCormack is averaging 15.0 points and 6.3 rebounds and shooting 56.8% from the field. Defensively, Kansas has prevented its last seven opponents to reach one point per possession, and Baylor’s 58 points on Saturday were its fewest of the season. The Bears’ 6-for-26 effort from behind the arc was also indicative of the Jayhawks’ recent stifling ways; Kansas’ last seven opponents have shot a combined 35-for-155 from the 3-point line, a 22.6% clip. Over a full season, that would rank No. 1 in the country by a wide margin.
10. Houston Cougars (20-3)
Previous ranking: 12
This week: vs. Memphis (Sunday)
With the top nine teams in the most recent AP poll going 10-9 over the past week, the door is open for Houston to quietly rise up the seed list. A victory over Memphis in the season finale, followed by a conference tournament title, could move the Cougars to the 2-line come Selection Sunday. Meanwhile, Quentin Grimes‘ inconsistent stretch from late January to mid-February seems to be in the rearview mirror. The former Kansas transfer had a terrific week in wins over Western Kentucky and South Florida, totaling 33 points, six rebounds and eight 3-pointers against the Hilltoppers and following that up with 22 points and six 3-pointers in just 20 minutes on Sunday vs. the Bulls. This comes after Grimes had 20 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists and three 3-pointers last weekend against Cincinnati. He’s ready for March.
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Houston guard Quentin Grimes hits his 6th three of the first half from the logo.
11. Villanova Wildcats (15-4)
Previous ranking: 8
This week: vs. Creighton (Wednesday), at Providence (Saturday)
Villanova had become the sneaky potential 1-seed over the past couple of weeks, with Big Ten teams not named Michigan beating up on each other and losses by Alabama, Florida State and Oklahoma. But the Wildcats couldn’t take advantage, losing on Sunday at Butler by 12. Hinkle Coliseum hasn’t been kind to Jay Wright, as Villanova has lost there in four of its last five trips to face the Bulldogs. Road woes are nothing new to the Wildcats, either; they went 0-3 on the road in February. Nova has a relatively underwhelming résumé for a team in the mix for a top-four seed. The Wildcats have just two Quadrant 1 wins, with their best victories coming against Texas, UConn and Seton Hall twice. They’re still the favorites to win the Big East title, but a win Wednesday vs. Creighton would help their seeding.
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (19-5)
Previous ranking: In the waiting room
This week: at South Carolina (Tuesday), vs. Texas A&M (Saturday)
Arkansas is going to get most of its production from its perimeter group, led by projected first-round pick Moses Moody, transfers JD Notae and Jalen Tate and freshman Davonte Davis. But it’s the frontcourt duo of Justin Smith and Jaylin Williams that make me optimistic come March. Smith had an uneven three years at Indiana but has made an impact in Fayetteville that goes beyond his points and rebounds. He has provided some veteran leadership and toughness and is one of the best defenders on the team. The Razorbacks are 18-2 with a healthy Smith. Williams, the 6-foot-10 in-state freshman, has developed over the past few weeks. He comes off the bench behind Connor Vanover, but he turned things around with 13 points and eight boards against Alabama and then had eight points, six rebounds and four blocks against LSU.
13. Florida State Seminoles
Previous ranking: 11
This week: vs. Boston College (Wednesday), at Notre Dame (Saturday)
The Seminoles’ hot stretch came to a halt in the second half against North Carolina on Saturday, when Florida State blew a 12-point halftime lead to fall to the Tar Heels. It won’t happen often, but Carolina matched FSU on the interior — and the Seminoles’ turnover issues also reared their head again. One thing to note: Florida State’s 3-point shooting has also fallen off a bit in recent games. It ranks in the top 15 nationally in 3-point shooting, but over the past three games, the Seminoles have made just 18 of 56 attempts from behind the arc. It’s likely just a blip, and upcoming games against Boston College and Notre Dame should help them break out entering the ACC tournament. The regular-season title is still Florida State’s to lose with a one-game lead in the loss column over Virginia, Virginia Tech and Louisville.
14. Texas Longhorns (14-7)
Previous ranking: 16
This week: at Iowa State (Tuesday), at Oklahoma (Thursday), at TCU (Sunday)
Texas notched a massive win over Kansas on Tuesday, a win that looks better after the Jayhawks beat Baylor on Saturday. But the Longhorns have some noticeable issues, and they’re just 4-6 in their past 10 games. Their saving grace is a résumé that includes a sweep of Kansas, plus wins over West Virginia and Oklahoma State. The defense that looked so elite at the start of the season has now allowed at least one point per possession in eight of the Longhorns’ past 11 games; in fact, they’re just middle of the pack in the Big 12 in adjusted defensive efficiency and are the third-worst team in the league guarding inside the arc. Offensively, they’re mostly inconsistent. They’ve become more 3-point reliant in conference play, but that’s to be expected when the offense revolves around three guards. Shaka Smart just needs to get them all on the same page.
15. Oklahoma State Cowboys (16-6)
Previous ranking: Unranked
This week: vs. Oklahoma (Monday), at Baylor (Thursday), at West Virginia (Saturday)
Oklahoma State is going to have one of the weirder résumés on Selection Sunday. Its NET is in the 30s, as is its KenPom, and its BPI is in the 50s. (The 50s!) But on the other hand, the Cowboys have a strength of record — which measures résumé — in the top 20 and they have seven Quadrant 1 wins, tied for second most in the country. Either way, Mike Boynton’s team is riding a four-game winning streak after overtime victories against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. The Cowboys are now 4-0 in overtime games this season. They do face one of the more difficult final stretches to the season, with another game against Oklahoma on Monday and then road games at Baylor and West Virginia. Their profile could be much easier to read after those three games.
16. Texas Tech Red Raiders (15-8)
Previous ranking: In the waiting room
This week: vs. TCU (Tuesday), vs. Iowa State (Thursday), at Baylor (Sunday)
The Big 12 pecking order after Baylor, West Virginia and now Kansas is becoming difficult to differentiate. Texas has solid metrics, zero bad losses and several good wins. Oklahoma State swept Texas Tech and has seven Quadrant 1 wins, but mediocre metrics. Oklahoma has two Quadrant 3 losses and metrics that are fading every week. Then there’s Texas Tech, which has sweeps of Texas and Oklahoma and very good NET and KenPom numbers — but a 5-8 record against Quadrants 1 and 2. That said, the Red Raiders have a chance to pad their league record with home games against TCU and Iowa State coming up, before finishing on the road at Baylor — which by then should have its sea legs back. And they will need to pad that record, as right now they’re seventh in the standings, which means a first-round game instead of a bye in the conference tournament.
Dropped out: Oklahoma (No. 9), Virginia (No. 14), Creighton (No. 15)
In the waiting room
Virginia Cavaliers: That’s now three straight losses for Virginia, and the Cavaliers are really struggling on the defensive end of the floor. They’ve allowed at least 1.08 points per possession in three straight games. The big issue with their profile? A lack of marquee wins. Their best wins are over Clemson, Georgia Tech and North Carolina.
Creighton Bluejays: Creighton falls a couple of spots after its road loss at Xavier on Saturday. The Bluejays scored below one point per possession for just the second time in their past 10 games, while also allowing Xavier to make better than 65% of its 2-pointers. Wednesday at Villanova is a big statement opportunity.
Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners’ underwhelming metrics could be overlooked when they were rolling through the Big 12, but with back-to-back losses — including one at Kansas State — those eyesores stand out a little bit more. They’re just 8-7 against the top three quadrants, with a KenPom ranking in the 30s.