Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday’s MLB games

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Wednesday’s MLB games

By Todd Zola

• Wednesday’s games start at 1:10 p.m. ET with a pair of former teammates squaring off. Eduardo Rodriguez and Rich Hill both played for the Red Sox in 2015. Rodriguez was in Detroit when Hill returned to Boston last season. Rodriguez is one of the season’s feel-good stories, as he’s enjoying a career year after working through issues last season, both on and off the field. Hill (3.3% rostered in ESPN leagues) was one of the reasons the Pirates got off to such a hot start, but like the team, he has cooled lately. Despite matching up with the tough Rodriguez, this is a spot for Hill to get back on track. The Tigers are averaging the third fewest runs per game, in part due to the 10th lowest wOBA versus left-handers, with an above average strikeout rate.

• The slate’s top-ranked pitching streamer is another veteran with Adam Wainwright (12.5% rostered) taking the hill at home against Milwaukee, in what has suddenly becomes an important series. Granted, this is a battle between a first- and last-place team, but despite being in the NL Central cellar, based on run differential and the Bill James Pythagorean Theorem means of predicting wins and losses, St. Louis and Milwaukee should have nearly identical records. With fewer games between divisional rivals this season, every chance for the Cardinals to make up ground is key, as is the opportunity for Milwaukee to keep distance between the rivals. Willson Contreras‘ return behind the place sparked Jack Flaherty on Monday night; perhaps it can do the same for Wainwright in his third start of the season. The Brewers’ offense is predictably less potent away from hitter-friendly American Family Field.

• Last season as a 27-year-old, J.P. France (11.5%) posted a 3.90 ERA and 1.36 WHIP for Triple-A Sugarland, the Astros’ top affiliate. Fanning 136 with 51 walks in 110 2/3 innings is encouraging, but France was several years advanced for the level, and he yielded 15 homers. He opened this season with 26 punchouts and 11 walks in 19 1/3 innings for the Space Cowboys with no homers. With Houston down a couple of starters, France got the call and has held his own in two outings, whiffing eight with two walks in 11 2/3 innings. A .156 BABIP has certainly helped, but France has exhibited solid command and control. On Wednesday he’s slated to pitch his first game at home with the club continuing an interleague set with the Cubs. It won’t be easy as the Cubs offense is perhaps surprisingly above average just past the quarter mark of the season, but France has exhibited enough to be trusted at home.

• Over his first four starts, MacKenzie Gore walked 14 batters in 21 innings. In his last four, Gore has issued a more palatable seven free passes on 20 stanzas, fanning 26 over that span. Gore is in a great spot to keep pitching well with a date against the Marlins in South Beach on tap. Miami has recorded the fifth-worst wOBA against right-handers, with an above average strikeout rate.

• The Reds finally called up one of their prized middle infielders earlier in the week, handing Matt McLain (9.6%) the keys to shortstop, a position Cincinnati has struggled with for several seasons. Granted, Coors Field is a nice place to debut, but a 1-for-4 effort with a walk and two runs is an encouraging way to start a career. McLain enjoys the platoon advantage with the Rockies sending lefty Austin Gomber to the hill on Wednesday. The Reds are mid-pack in stolen bases, which suggests they’ll give the green light to those capable of swiping a bag. Last season, McLain was 27-for-30 with Double-A Charlotte, and he was 10-for-15 for Triple-A Louisville prior to his call-up. Sure, a 67% success rate is low, but attempting 15 steals in just 38 games is telling. McLain batted second in his MLB debut, another promising reason to believe he could run.

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Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

• Spencer Steer (CIN, 3B — 4%) at Gomber

• Nick Senzel (CIN, CF — 8%) at Gomber

• Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 4%) vs. Graham Ashcraft

• Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF — 21%) vs. Ashcraft

• Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 10%) vs. Ashcraft

• Josh Naylor (CLE, 1B — 41%) at Mike Clevinger

• Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 47%) at Gomber

• Mike Moustakas (COL, 3B — 1%) vs. Ashcraft

• Kevin Newman (CIN, 2B — 1%) at Gomber

• Wil Myers (CIN, RF — 4%) at Gomber

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Thursday

• Adolis Garcia (TEX, RF — 91%) vs. Spencer Strider

• Jonah Heim (TEX, C — 82%) vs. Strider

• Josh Lowe (TB, RF — 54%) at Kodai Senga

• James Outman (LAD, LF — 69%) vs. Sonny Gray

• Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 84%) vs. Strider

• Marcus Semien (TEX, 2B — 100%) vs. Strider

• Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 84%) at Nathan Eovaldi

• Tommy Edman (STL, 2B — 82%) vs. Corbin Burnes

• DJ LeMahieu (NYY, 3B — 71%) at Chris Bassitt

• MJ Melendez (KC, C — 59%) at Yu Darvish