Here come those red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers!
Fresh off a homestand that saw them deliver a pair of three-game series sweeps and taking over the National League West division lead in the process, the 19-13 Dodgers now head south to face the rival (and preseason pick to give them the stiffest challenge for said division title) San Diego Padres.
The Dodgers have loaded up for this series, with rookie Gavin Stone‘s Wednesday debut having afforded them the luxury of perfectly aligning their rotation such that Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and (presumably) Julio Urias will start these three games. For the Padres, it will be Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, their top three starters as well, with the series finale on ESPN’s “Sunday Night Baseball.”
They’re not the only division rivals squaring off: The second-place Cleveland Guardians host the American League Central-leading Minnesota Twins for three games, while the AL West-leading Texas Rangers, after completing their series in St. Louis, visit the second-place Los Angeles Angels. Sadly, there’ll be no Shohei Ohtani (he pitched Wednesday) or Jacob deGrom (he’s on the IL… again) pitching in the latter series.
What advantages do our fantasy analysts see in the weekend matchups ahead? Tristan H. Cockcroft and Eric Karabell offer their lineup advice.
Cockcroft: Whenever I see matchups like Dodgers-Padres, title contenders with stocked rosters, I tend to play the “go with your stars” strategy, and there’s really no difference here. One thing that has pleased me about the Dodgers’ recent hot streak is the improved play of Miguel Vargas, who is 7-for-24 (.292) during the homestand, with two homers and nine RBIs. It’s timely considering the tough matchups stretch the team is entering. Over the next 24 days, the Dodgers face the Padres (two series), Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals (theoretically they should improve), Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays.
Seeing this team drop double-digit scores in three straight, plus Vargas specifically playing better (and I’ve been reminding folks all year how the hairline fracture in his pinky that he suffered in February delayed his spring buildup, making a sluggish start understandable) gives me more confidence in the team’s lesser-heralded fantasy options, James Outman being another.
Yes, I admit it. I’m deflecting from my Yankees’ injury-riddled, sluggish recent performance. Can we borrow some of those surplus Dodgers bats? I can’t say I’m confident about a three-game series at Tampa Bay, when Willie Calhoun is shaping up as our No. 5 hitter.
Karabell: What’s wrong with Calhoun, this week’s version of Franchy Cordero? Yeah, a Yankees lineup sans that Aaron Judge fellow does look a bit different. The Rays remain the story, though, and half of their impressive lineup remains largely available in ESPN standard leagues. OF Josh Lowe sure looks legit. OF Luke Raley provides power. OF Manuel Margot steals bases. OF Harold Ramirez leads the team in OPS! I am interested to see this offense perform against Yankees RHPs Jhony Brito, Domingo German and, of course, Gerrit Cole, who is off to a great start.
You mentioned the Cardinals and yes, they should improve, starting this weekend with a Tigers team that gave the Mets some trouble. The Cardinals are a mess, with many people to blame, from 3B Nolan Arenado to the rotation to perhaps the organization’s decision making. Why is Jordan Walker back in the minors? What is Paul DeJong doing handling shortstop? We should see franchise icon Adam Wainwright (groin) make his 2023 debut this weekend and I wonder if his presence changes everything. Put simply, I find it to be a wise time to trade for Arenado, OF Tyler O’Neill, RHP Ryan Helsley and others. What struggling team (other than your Yankees) are you watching?
Cockcroft: Arenado’s Statcast dots in key categories read 14 (average exit velocity), 19 (hard hit rate), 16 (barrel rate) and nine (expected wOBA), and those are percentile ranks — he’s blue-da-ba-dee-da-ba-di (the original will always be the better one, if that song had such a thing as “better”). And I wonder why my Tout Wars team is off to a positively dreadful start? (Max Scherzer‘s performance hasn’t helped, nor has Brandon Woodruff‘s injury.)
Perhaps I’m speaking from a lack of alternatives, or merely the blind hope that Scherzer quickly rebounds to save me, but I’ll throw some love across town to the Mets, at least as far as struggling teams are concerned. You mentioned their struggles in Detroit, which surprised me (though we’ll see how Justin Verlander fares in his Mets’ and 2023 debut on Thursday). The problem with the Mets, Cardinals, Yankees and other teams in a funk is that these things get amplified nowadays. Everyone piles on and there’s the danger that fantasy managers follow suit.
Out of the Mets’ 50%-and-over rostered players, four saw their rates drop in the past week, and it gets worse on that front when you go to lower roster percentages. And quick reactions do make more sense in our new format — Todd Zola wrote a great piece this week talking about this experience and resulting strategies in our staff league.
Still, I simply cannot give up on a Mets team that was widely predicted to go deep into October, draws a terrible Colorado Rockies team at Citi Field, and then gets it pretty easy thereafter with series against the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals. I’m a Brett Baty guy, and recommend the pickup à la Vargas. Who’s your guy this weekend?
Karabell: I agree that the Mets are going to hit — and pitch — and all it takes is an easier schedule. The same goes for the White Sox. They get those Reds this weekend and I can’t help but notice all seven of the Chicago hitters rostered in at least 10% of ESPN standard leagues are among the most dropped at their respective positions. This includes star OFs Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez. It also includes SS Tim Anderson, who just returned to the lineup this week. The White Sox remind me of the Cardinals. They shouldn’t be this terrible. Facing RHP Hunter Greene and LHP Nick Lodolo shouldn’t be fun, but now that basically all Chicago hitters are values in fantasy, it is time to invest, starting with Anderson, who has hit .300 each of the last four seasons and probably will again!
On the other end of Chicago, the Cubs get to face Marlins pitching, which wasn’t supposed to be a good thing, but apparently it is. I like Chicago’s lineup, starting with their middle infielders Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson. I believe Cody Bellinger can actually have the second-best season of his interesting career and cannot wait to see 1B prospect Matt Mervis debut. It may not be much longer. Mervis is clearly ready for the majors. I continue to enjoy Cubs 3B Patrick Wisdom, as he trends toward a 30-HR season.
Miami sends Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara to the mound Sunday, and I wonder if another rough outing here starts his path to free agency in more leagues. I know it seems ridiculous — and I certainly would not entertain those thoughts — but ESPN has smaller rosters and Alcantara has just one win in six starts, along with a 5.09 ERA that he mostly deserves. His walk rate is up, while his K rate and ground ball rate are down. I think it’s a wise time to trade for him, but he did have biceps tendinitis recently and he has carried a huge workload in recent years. I’m hoping and expecting the best, but this is also a numbers game.
Cockcroft: Karabell always brings Wisdom to this space. And I’m with you on the Cubs, as I’m surprised they flopped in D.C. I’ve got “Cubs lefty bats” in my notes, and it’s mostly because the Forecaster grants them a 10 grade, which says a lot when, as you mentioned, Alcantara is on the schedule. Keep riding that Bellinger bandwagon!
Speaking of righty/lefty opportunities, the Rangers draw three Angels lefty starters while, again, missing Ohtani. Josh Jung is a .333/.344/.730 hitter with seven homers in 64 big-league trips to the plate against lefties. Get on board, people! Jonah Heim has also picked up the pace, has favorable splits for this series and he plays that tough-to-fill catcher spot.
Since we shouldn’t forget the also-rans, I like what I’ve been seeing from the Kansas City’s Edward Olivares and Oakland’s Mason Miller, their teams squaring off in K.C. this weekend. They’re both available in 90%-plus of ESPN leagues. It’s a weekend opportunity, but one to take.