These are boom times for NFL-bound wide receivers. The past three NFL drafts have seen a total of 17 wideouts taken in the first round (the three drafts before that: seven), and nearly half of them (seven) have been picked 12th or higher. Each year the NFL collectively acknowledges the importance of the passing game a bit more — the last time a running back was picked higher than 24th: 2018 — and receivers have benefited from that almost as much as edge rushers.
Incredibly, almost none of these 17 first-rounders turned out to be reaches. Five produced 1,000-yard rookie seasons, five of the remaining 11 picked in 2020-21 did so in their second year, and three of the five from 2020 (not including Henry Ruggs) did so in their third, while a fourth came within 28 yards of that mark. Pick a wide receiver in the first round, and the odds are good that he’ll play like a first-round pick.
Is the receiver position easier to project than others? Perhaps. Of the 124 wideouts that (A) were drafted since 2016 and (B) have seen at least 50 targets in the NFL — admittedly a somewhat self-selecting sample, since some busts might not have hit that mark — there are some decent correlations between college and pro production. There’s a correlation of 0.47*, for instance, between a player’s catch rate in college and his catch rate in the pros and a correlation of 0.39 between yards per catch at the two levels. Sports Info Solutions has been collecting detailed college route data since 2018, and for players drafted in 2021 or 2022, a player’s yards-per-route-run average at the two levels correlates quite nicely (0.60 within this sample).
*Correlations run from minus-1 to 1. If a correlation is close to 1, the two variables in question rise and fall in solid alignment; if it is close to minus-1, the two variables are aligned in inverse — one rises while the other falls. If it is close to 0, there is almost no relationship between the two variables.
Some more correlations: minus-0.38 between a player’s combine or pro day 40 time and his yards per catch in the NFL (so the lower the 40, the higher the yards per catch), 0.33 between college and pro drop rates. And while these are more personality traits than quality traits, there’s a correlation of 0.55 between air yards per target at the two levels, 0.51 for yards after catch per reception.
In other words, we can glean something from a player’s college stats, even if the picture is incomplete.
What can we learn about the top of the 2023 draft class? While this crop might not have the same upside as last year’s — while ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. lists four receivers among his top 25 overall prospects, the first one doesn’t show up until No. 16 overall — the statistical differences between prospects are intriguing.
The top five receivers in Kiper’s rankings are unique prospects who stood out in different ways at the college level. Let’s talk about what makes each distinctive.
Jump to a wide receiver:
Addison | Flowers | Hyatt
Johnston | Smith-Njigba
Kiper ranking: No. 16 overall (No. 1 WR)
Measurables: 5-foot-9, 182 pounds, 4.42 40 time (NFL combine)
Career stats: 48 games, 358 targets, 200 catches, 3,056 yards, 29 TDs, 8.5 yards per target, 2.2 yards per route
2022 stats: 12 games, 127 targets, 78 catches, 1,077 yards, 12 TDs, 8.5 yards per target, 2.3 yards per route
It’s pretty easy to make a peripheral case against picking Flowers. The four BC offenses on which he played got progressively worse over his career, from 58th in offensive SP+ in 2020 (when he caught 56 balls for 892 yards) to 94th in each of the past two. His career averages — 8.5 yards per target, 63.7 yards per game — are perfectly solid but don’t really stand out among top prospects. His success wasn’t really connected to his team’s success either: In nine career 100-yard performances against FBS competition, Flowers’ Eagles went 4-5 and averaged just 23 points per game.
Any context you add, however, shines a positive light. And there’s quite a bit of context to add. In 2022, he was the key player for the BC offense. The Eagles’ leading rusher averaged 3.1 yards per carry, and his 127 targets were nearly three times higher than those of the No. 2 target (44 targets). BC quickly and constantly fell behind schedule, and 45% of Flowers’ targets came on what I define as passing downs (second-and-8 or more, third- or fourth-and-5 or more). He averaged a respectable 8.0 yards per target with a 35% success rate on those passing-downs targets, which is impressive considering his team averaged just a 28% success rate on those downs (98th in FBS). On second- or third-and-long (11 or more yards to go), Flowers caught 11 of 16 balls for 199 yards (12.4 per target). The degree of difficulty was high, and Flowers still produced 1,077 yards and 12 scores.
Then there’s the versatility. There’s nothing a pro team can ask him to do that he hasn’t already done.
Flowers’ snap distribution, aka where he lined up in relation to the ball.
Flowers’ 2022 routes distribution.
A translation of the two charts above: Flowers lined up almost literally everywhere and ran nearly every route imaginable. He was virtually unscoutable — there were tendencies in how Boston College deployed him because they asked him to do pretty much everything at one point or another.
He was targeted 31 times behind the line of scrimmage (he caught 26 for 80 yards and two touchdowns) and 22 times on passes 20 or more yards downfield (10 catches, 442 yards, 4 touchdowns). Sports Info Solutions categorizes receiver routes, and he was targeted between 10 and 26 times on screens, hook routes, shallow routes, crosses, vertical routes, outs and corners. (His best routes? He caught 10 of 14 passes for 205 yards on crossing routes, and he caught 4 of 5 for 238 yards and four scores on post routes. My professional analysis: BC should have had him run more post routes.) When BC was an underdog, Flowers was targeted more frequently on short, quick routes to get him involved; when the Eagles were favorites, he ran more deep routes and laid more hammer blows.
Flowers’ superpower is that he’s a totally blank canvas. If he fails to live up to his draft status, one figures it’s because he ended up in the “jack of all trades, master of none” category, but producing good stats from a bad situation has certainly prepared him for the increase in degree of difficulty prospects encounter when jumping to the pros.
Kiper ranking: No. 17 overall (No. 2 WR)
Measurables: 6-foot-1, 196 pounds, 4.53 40 time (pro day)
Career stats: 23 games, 135 targets, 110 catches, 1,698 yards, 10 TDs, 12.6 yards per target, 3.4 yards per route
2021 stats: 13 games, 113 targets, 95 catches, 1,606 yards, 9 TDs, 14.2 yards per target, 4.1 yards per route
In 2021, Smith-Njigba put together one of the greatest seasons ever for a college receiver, and it somehow sneaked up on us.
Smith-Njigba was a former blue-chip recruit for whom plenty was expected, but he had caught just 10 balls in seven games as a freshman in 2020, and he entered 2021 behind future first-rounders Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave (who combined for 155 catches, 2,145 yards and 8 touchdowns as NFL rookies last fall) in the Buckeyes’ pecking order. But while both players battled injuries here and there, Smith-Njigba became an increasingly reliable receiver out of the slot. And when both receivers opted out of the 2022 Rose Bowl against Utah, he produced maybe the greatest single-game performance we’ve seen: 15 catches, 347 yards and three vital touchdowns in a 48-45 victory.
He entered 2022 as the presumptive Biletnikoff Award winner but suffered an injury in the first game of the year and barely played, finishing the season with just five catches. His presence could have easily impacted the national title race — without him, Ohio State lost 42-41 to eventual national champion Georgia in the CFP semifinal — and his absence deprived us of watching him for one more season at the collegiate level. But when healthy, he is a ready-made star out of the slot, and there was almost literally nothing he could do to top his 2021 season.
Smith-Njigba’s passing bins.
Unlike Flowers, Smith-Njigba’s usage was a bit more consistent in 2021. He, too, shined on a variety of routes, but 87 of his 95 catches came out of the slot, and only 13 of his 113 targets were thrown 20 or more yards downfield. (He was outstanding on those deep balls, mind you, catching 9 of 13 for 288 yards and three scores.) His superpower? Low-risk explosiveness. On 25 passes thrown between 6 and 10 yards downfield, he caught 24 for 403 yards (16.8 per catch). He averaged nearly 12 yards per catch on screen passes and more than 22 per catch on hook routes.
Yards per route is a lovely summary statistic. It ties together both explosiveness and frequency of use, and as mentioned in the introduction, it translates pretty well from the college to pro level. And if it translates in Smith-Njigba’s case, he will immediately become one of the NFL’s best receivers.
Over the past four seasons, there have been 122 1000-yard seasons for receivers at the FBS level. These receivers averaged 2.8 yards per route, and only three topped Smith-Njigba’s 4.1 average: North Texas’ Jaelon Darden in 2020 (4.4), Louisville’s Tutu Atwell in 2019 (4.4) and the yards-per-route gold standard, Alabama’s DeVonta Smith in 2020 (4.5 and one Heisman Trophy).
There’s at least a slight chance that Smith-Njigba’s slot reliability ends up a hindrance of sorts. Of the NFL’s 22 1000-yard receivers in 2022, only two saw more than 50% of their snaps out of the slot (Jacksonville’s Christian Kirk and Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin), and none were higher than 63%. Even Smith, whose usage for Bama in 2020 was a nearly 50-50 split between slot and wide, lined up outside on 74% of snaps for the Eagles last season.
Then again, 101 of Justin Jefferson‘s 111 catches at LSU in 2019 came out of the slot, too. His skills seem to have translated just fine to the higher level.
Kiper ranking: No. 22 overall (No. 3 WR)
Measurables: 5-foot-11, 173 pounds, 4.49 40 time (NFL combine)
Career stats: 35 games, 313 targets, 219 catches, 3,134 yards, 29 TDs, 10.0 yards per target, 2.7 yards per route
2022 stats: 11 games, 81 targets, 59 catches, 875 yards, 8 TDs, 10.8 yards per target, 2.8 yards per route
The transfer portal era has certainly made college roster management a lot trickier and more involved than it used to be (and it was never particularly un-tricky), but Addison’s career is a portent of sorts, a hint that in the future we’ll have a lot more data about how certain draft picks perform in different offensive or defensive systems.
Addison won the Biletnikoff Award in 2021 at Pitt mostly as an explosive weapon in a reasonably old-school, pro-style attack, lined up primarily in the slot and utilized on both sides of the field. In 2022, he teamed up with quarterback Caleb Williams at USC and, while battling injuries, served a more high-efficiency role from a wider position, primarily on the right, in Lincoln Riley’s modern (and high-level) scheme.
Addison’s receiver radar chart from 2021 at Pitt. Note the high performance in explosiveness categories like yards after catch and explosiveness percentage and the lower performance in success rate, a primary efficiency measure.
Addison’s receiver radar chart from 2022 at USC. His success rate rose, and his per-target and per-catch averages remained about the same while his explosiveness opportunities dropped.
Addison’s full-career stats are excellent. He was an immediate role player as a true freshman (60 catches, 666 yards), erupted as a sophomore and maintained his averages despite major change as a junior. And we’ve seen him produce in a few different ways.
2020: 93% of routes from slot (2.1 yards per route), 7% other (0.8 yards per route)
2021: 80% of routes from slot (2.8 yards per route), 20% other (3.7 yards per route)
2022: 29% of routes from slot (3.5 yards per route), 71% other (2.4 yards per route)
Honestly, Riley probably should have deployed Addison more from the slot than he did, but he had two other productive receivers, Tahj Washington and Mario Williams, doing plenty of damage there already. Regardless, Addison was a key member of two productive and very different offenses — the 2021 Pitt offense that leaped from 65th to eighth in offensive SP+ and the transfer-heavy USC offense that surged from 35th to first.
If there’s a concern here, it’s that, besides the experience in multiple systems, his production doesn’t really stand out. He wasn’t nearly as explosive as Smith-Njigba on shorter routes (5.8 yards per catch on screen passes, 11.3 on hook routes), and his catch rate on deeper passes was solid but far worse than that of either Flowers or Smith-Njigba (48% on vertical routes and posts). He’s an ultrasmooth athlete, and he has got very useful experience, but he might have some questions to answer regarding overall upside.
Kiper ranking: No. 24 overall (No. 4 WR)
Measurables: 6-foot-3, 208 pounds, no official 40 time
Career stats: 32 games, 203 targets, 115 catches, 2,168 yards, 14 TDs, 10.7 yards per target, 2.8 yards per route
2022 stats: 14 games, 98 targets, 60 catches, 1,069 yards, 6 TDs, 10.9 yards per target, 3.0 yards per route
There are plenty of successful receiver prototypes out there in the wild — the ultraefficient inside receiver, the speedy vertical routes master, the stocky and versatile Z-receiver and so on. But one prototype still prevails if you can find the right one (and there aren’t many right ones): the physically intimidating and dominant X receiver, a Calvin Johnson- or Julio Jones-style marvel who lines up against the other team’s No. 1 corner all game and wins a healthy share of one-on-ones. They might not be as efficient as others — though, hell, they sometimes are — but every team wants one.
Johnston is 6-foot-3 and 208 pounds, and he looks about 6-foot-6, 235 in the open field. In the outstanding 2022 TCU offense — the Frogs jumped from 29th to fifth in offensive SP+ in head coach Sonny Dykes’ and offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s first year in charge — Johnston was effective enough in quick-passing situations to keep defenders honest. On passes thrown within five yards of the line of scrimmage (about half of which were screens), he averaged 8.1 yards per catch with a 74% catch rate, and his most famous catch of the 2022 season was a ball he caught two yards behind the line of scrimmage.
That stutter-step catch-and-run put TCU up 10 in the fourth quarter of the CFP semifinal against Michigan and eventually made the difference in a 51-45 win.
One of the few blue-chippers on the Horned Frogs’ team, the former top-75 recruit was asked to come up the biggest in the biggest games, and he did so. He caught a combined 22 passes for 386 yards and two scores in tight, early-season wins over Kansas and Oklahoma State, he caught four for 139 in the Big 12 championship game against Kansas State, and he caught six for 163 against Michigan. (He had a terrible game against Georgia in the CFP championship game, but so did almost every single TCU player.) He is a rare size-and-speed package, and his best moments were also TCU’s best moments.
Success as an X prototype typically requires some big, downfield grabs. Johnston was solid in intermediate areas, and he was well above average on deeper shots. On passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield, he caught 10 of 23 balls for 427 yards and five touchdowns. On shots taken to his familiar left side, he was all-or-nothing in just the way you’d envision from a guy attempting to reel in 50-50 balls against other teams’ No. 1 corners.
Johnston’s efficiency levels aren’t quite the same as the names above, but he’s a completely different type of receiver too. A team looking for pure upside over guaranteed early production might be more likely to have his name atop their list.
Kiper ranking: Outside top 25 overall (No. 5 WR)
Measurables: 6-foot, 176 pounds, 4.4 40 time (NFL combine)
Career stats: 35 games, 154 targets, 108 catches, 1,769 yards, 19 TDs, 11.5 yards per target, 2.5 yards per route
2022 stats: 12 games, 91 targets, 67 catches, 1,267 yards, 15 TDs, 13.9 yards per target, 3.3 yards per route
After a couple of years of getting lost in the shuffle directly before and after a coaching change, Hyatt turned into the slot man of coach Josh Heupel’s dreams in 2022. He was basically two receivers at once — a safe and steady possession man (passes of 10 air yards or less: 90% catch rate, 8.4 yards per catch) and the best deep threat in college football. On passes 11 or more yards downfield, he caught 24 of 43 (56%) for 907 yards (37.8 per catch!) and 12 touchdowns. Half his downfield catches went to the house!
Hyatt’s targets heat map. He lined up primarily on the right side and thrived on quick passes on the interior and deep sideline balls.
Hyatt was nearly perfect in 2022. Not only did he top 130 receiving yards in five games, but he scored 12 touchdowns in those games with his Vols averaging 58 points per game. (The sample included games against good Alabama and Kentucky defenses, too.) If a defense didn’t focus on stopping Hyatt over the top, he burned them repeatedly.
As incredible as he may have been, though, history has provided plenty of examples of players producing mediocre numbers, thriving for a single season, then getting overdrafted, so to speak, and struggling. Hyatt caught just 41 passes for 502 yards in his first two seasons, and his junior season produced more than 70% of his career totals. That’s a bit of a concern, as is the fact that, well, Josh Heupel offenses tend to produce explosive numbers out of the slot.
Heupel’s attack is known primarily for its relentless tempo and its ability to stretch defenses all the way from one sideline to the other. And within these huge gaps, he looks to attack defenses deep with slot receivers as much or more than anyone else. Over the five years before Hyatt’s breakout, four top receivers in Heupel’s system — Missouri’s Johnathon Johnson, UCF’s Dredrick Snelson and Marlon Williams and Tennessee’s Velus Jones Jr. (career NFL catches among them: nine) — combined to average 54 catches per season at 14.7 yards per catch, mostly from the slot. Hyatt zoomed past those numbers thanks to a midseason explosion, and his upside is quite obviously higher.
But he was playing in one of college football’s most-likely-to-succeed positions. How do his skills translate against better (and less spread-out) defenses? And even if he eventually succeeds, does it take him a little while?