Last week at the Maui Invitational, Arkansas looked like a potential Final Four team. The Razorbacks lost by just three points to Creighton, then beat San Diego State in overtime to secure third place at the event. It was a positive sign for the ceiling of a newcomer-heavy team still figuring things out.
And now, coach Eric Musselman is adding arguably the nation’s best NBA prospect to the fold.
Nick Smith Jr., the No. 3-ranked recruit in the 2022 class, missed the first six games of the season out of precaution over his right knee, but he played five minutes in Arkansas’ win over Troy on Monday. He’s set to increase his minutes this weekend against San José State, and there’s optimism he’s not far from being 100% healthy.
The 6-foot-5 guard from Arkansas is No. 4 in ESPN’s 2023 NBA draft rankings — the highest-ranked prospect currently playing college basketball. Is he the player to push the Razorbacks into the Final Four after back-to-back Elite Eight appearances?
He’s an elite offensive player
When he is fully healthy, Smith immediately becomes one of the best scorers in college basketball. Down the line in the NBA, he likely projects as more of a primary playmaker, but at the college level, he’ll be tasked with scoring at a high clip. He boosted his recruiting stock the summer before his senior year of high school, separating himself because of his size, length and ability to make shots.
“It’s his shot creation,” a college coach who scouted Smith said. “The best players in the NBA are guards that can create their own. He can get buckets in a multitude of ways.”
Smith averaged 17.6 points and 3.0 assists on the Nike EYBL circuit with Brad Beal Elite, shooting 37.5% from 3-point range. He then went out and had a stellar senior season, followed by standout performances on the high school all-star game circuit. His showing at the Jordan Brand Classic — 24 points, three assists, 4-for-6 from 3 — caught a lot of attention.
“He can create his own shot, he can hit shots off the bounce,” one NBA scout in attendance said. “This translates, this is what people are looking for. He did it when the lights were turned on; he did it behind closed doors.
“If he never played a game, he still doesn’t get out of the top 10 [in the draft].”
In conversations with scouts, comparisons ranged from Jamal Murray on the high end to Jordan Clarkson as his floor to D’Angelo Russell in between. Given that Clarkson is a career 15-point-per-game scorer, that’s a pretty good low-end scenario.
“The worst case is I’m getting Sixth Man of the Year potential,” one scout said. “Can score 15 to 20 every night. That’s a win. If next year as [an NBA] rookie he wins Sixth Man of the Year, I wouldn’t be shocked.”
How does Smith fit?
We can throw out the five minutes he played against Troy, but we’re also not flying blind when it comes to discussing how Smith will mesh with the existing players on Arkansas’ roster. The Razorbacks went on a four-game summer tour of Spain and Italy and also played two exhibition games in the preseason — and Smith played in all six.
He led the team in scoring in three of the four games on the European tour — in the fourth, he played just 12 minutes. Overall, he averaged 16 points and three assists on the trip, shooting better than 40% from 3. Smith then scored nine points in the exhibition game against Rogers State, and he had 12 points in the blowout exhibition loss to Texas.
Arkansas isn’t the same team it was in those preseason games, though. Five-star recruit Anthony Black has emerged as one of the elite freshmen in the country, averaging 22.3 points and 4.3 assists in the three Maui Invitational games and shooting 40% from 3 — considered the 6-7 point guard’s weakness entering the season. And former Wichita State transfer Ricky Council IV has established himself as the team’s top scorer, averaging over 20 points through the first month of 2022-23.
“Him and Anthony Black is the perfect combo,” one NBA scout said. “I’ve always looked at Black as a big point guard. On the foreign tour games, the ball was in Nick Smith’s hands and they let him go. He was trying to get others involved, play out of his comfort zone. And he can do that, but he’s better as a scorer. He just needs other facilitators around with him.”
The expectation from scouts is that Black will have the ball in his hands more as the primary ball handler and someone who can initiate the team’s half-court offense. Smith, meanwhile, will be used more in ball-screen situations and more similarly to how Council has operated early in the season — with Arkansas running plays to get him in advantageous situations that force defenses to adjust or overload one side of the floor.
One scout wondered whether Black would play with the same freedom he did in Maui, knowing Musselman now has other options to make plays.
“He finally began to shoot the ball knowing even if he missed, the ball had to be in his hands,” he said.
Expectations for the rest of 2022-23
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Anthony Black goes baseline for Arkansas dunk
There are plenty of minutes to go around on the perimeter, even if Davonte Davis is fully back with the team (the junior guard missed Monday’s game after “taking some time away from basketball” but released a statement Wednesday saying he had rejoined the team). A lineup with Black, Davis, Smith, Council and one of the team’s bigs is certainly viable, as is a more conventional look with three guards, freshman Jordan Walsh and a big man, or even a two-big lineup.
The last time we saw Smith, it was in the 90-60 exhibition loss to the Longhorns on Oct. 29. As one scout said, the game was fairly useless from an evaluation perspective due to the margin of victory and format of the game (20 players saw double-figure minutes, 26 players played). Another onlooker said Smith was efficient shooting the ball but really struggled defensively.
“The offense looked rigid. It wasn’t fluid. They got popped in the mouth before they had any chance to really recover and respond,” the scout said. “Texas’ guards attacked Black a bit, and it shrunk the floor. Smith had a few nice iso plays and showed the ability to get downhill with it and finish at the basket.”
After the first month of the season, though, the exhibition result has been long forgotten, and Arkansas has established itself as a team that should make a deep run in March. Black has been fantastic at the point guard spot, Missouri transfer Trevon Brazile looks like an NBA player and Council has been effective on the offensive end. Davis is an experienced two-way player and Walsh is another five-star recruit who should hit his stride later in the season. Then there’s a deep stable of bigs who produce when called upon: Makhi Mitchell had 14 points and nine boards on Monday, while Kamani Johnson went from back-to-back DNPs to getting seven points and seven rebounds against San Diego State.
And now Musselman is adding a truly elite offensive player, the type of X factor who can take and make big shots when it matters in the NCAA tournament.
“I’ve been down this situation a lot,” Musselman told reporters after Monday’s win. “Player’s on a minutes restriction, really good player, team has played pretty well and then there’s all these dynamics you’re trying to work in. And then you also want the player to be healthy too.
“Nick’s really anxious to play and we’re really anxious to have him.”