We’re about 10 days into the 2022-23 men’s college basketball season — so what better time for overreactions and sweeping assessments about teams?
The first week featured a surprising number of upsets, while the last few days have offered a few more marquee matchups between potential March difference-makers. Sure, it’s still too early to truly gauge teams and players, but there are certainly trends and narratives worth monitoring moving forward — and whether they have staying power over the course of a season.
When I did this column a year ago, I identified the early signs of Oscar Tshiebwe‘s dominance at Kentucky and Andrew Nembhard’s importance to Gonzaga … but hints of Coleman Hawkins breaking out for Illinois and Florida‘s defense making it a factor in the SEC were wide off the mark, in retrospect.
Here are the trends to keep an eye on after a week and a half of college basketball.
What’s going on?
A top-50 recruit coming out of high school, Sissoko barely played a role during his first two seasons in East Lansing. He played double-digit minutes just five times in the first 55 games of his career, totaling 60 points in those games. But Tom Izzo and the Spartans needed him this season, and he has stepped up dramatically. He had just four points and six boards in the opener against Northern Arizona, but against two of the best big men college basketball has to offer — Gonzaga’s Drew Timme followed by Tshiebwe — Sissoko held his own.
Will it last?
Sissoko went toe-to-toe with Timme in the first half of last week’s game before Timme got going and Sissoko went to the bench with foul trouble. But he still finished with 14 points and nine boards. Then during Tuesday’s Champions Classic double-overtime game against Kentucky, Sissoko made winning plays throughout the 50 minutes of action — finishing with 16 points and eight rebounds, and seeing Tshiebwe foul out. He’s getting to the free-throw line, finishing lobs at the rim and running the floor effectively. He’s a huge part of the reason Michigan State looks like it will exceed expectations this season.
What they’re saying
“The game has slowed down for him,” one NBA scout said. “It’s kind of comparable to his high school career, where he started off and struggled early. Wasn’t a high-major player when he was a sophomore and junior. The game slowed down for him there. And then he got to college, and the game needed to slow down again. He’s not looking over his shoulder anymore. He’s just playing with confidence. They must have done a great job this offseason infusing him with confidence. They had to get him going. And now momentum is working in his favor. He’s doing the simple things: rim-running, shot-blocking, screen-and-roll. He needs another year or two, but with how big and long he is and what he can do around the basket, it’s not out of the question [that he becomes an NBA player].”
0:17
Brandon Miller nails long 3 from downtown
What’s going on?
There was consistent buzz coming out of Tuscaloosa in the preseason that Miller was starting to put it together in practice. Miller was a five-star recruit, one of the most naturally-gifted prospects in the country — but his biggest issue was consistency. If he could bring it every night, there were few players in the class more talented. And thus far, he’s bringing it. He had 14 points and 13 rebounds in the season opener against Longwood, then went for 20 points, eight rebounds and three assists against Liberty, and rounded it off with 19 points, eight rebounds and three assists against South Alabama.
Will it last?
Like any freshman, Miller will have some bouts of inconsistency at some point this season, but his ceiling is as high as that of any NBA draft prospect in the country. He’s 6-foot-9, has good ball skills, can make shots from the perimeter (he went 4-for-5 from 3 against Liberty and made another four against South Alabama) and has been efficient on the offensive end so far. With fellow freshman stars Nick Smith Jr., (Arkansas), Cameron Whitmore (Villanova) and Dariq Whitehead (Duke) injured to start 2022-23, Miller is laying down an early marker.
What they’re saying
“I think Nate [Oats] has done a great job with him,” a scout said. “Giving him the ball and letting him play through mistakes. Getting him the ball in his hot spots. He’s talented as hell, man. He’s old for his grade, his body is kind of thin, but as far as pure talent and scoring ability, it’s not a great surprise. Consistency has been his Achilles heel. And not just game to game, but half to half. There were games in high school where he had 17 at the half and finished with 19. Does he have that killer mindset, does he have that dog, can he take over a game? Or is he better off as a really good No. 2? It’s been a really good sign that he’s already shown some consistency scoring the basketball and also with the effort.”
0:26
Jalen Wilson glides in for the and-1 for Kansas
Jalen Wilson can be the best player on a Final Four team
What’s going on?
With Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun leaving Kansas after last season’s national championship and taking about 33 points per game with them, Bill Self needed a high-usage player who wanted the ball in key spots. Wilson was the most likely candidate, and has been that guy so far. He hasn’t been overly efficient, but he hasn’t shied away from big moments or struggled to get a clean look when Kansas needs a basket, either. Through three games, Wilson is averaging 21.7 points, 10.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists and has been consistently aggressive on the offensive end.
Will it last?
Wilson’s shot totals might drop as Kansas gets healthy and its freshmen become more acclimated to the college game (MJ Rice falls into both buckets), but his aggressiveness and confidence on the offensive end don’t seem to be going anywhere. After notching 19 points, 11 boards and seven assists against Omaha, he had 21 points and nine boards against North Dakota State. And under the spotlight against Duke on Tuesday, he finished with 25 points (on 26 shots), 11 rebounds and five assists. In Kansas’ small-ball lineup, his ability to stretch the floor from the perimeter and also put the ball on the deck has made him a difficult matchup.
What they’re saying
“He knows he’s the guy,” an NBA scout said. “He’s the next Kansas guy to become an older, go-to player. You want to see him shoot the ball better, of course, which is interesting because he used to be known as a 3-point shooter and now he’s a small-ball four, he’s versatile, he can rebound, he can play off the catch. A lot of it is maturity. He’s been through it all, he knows how to deal with it now. He’s going to play through his mistakes. Taking 26 shots is something that wasn’t happening last year, two years ago. He’s grown up and matured some. I think he can be a role guy in the NBA, seeing how far he’s come over the last few years. He went from a shot-jacking wing to a do-it-all forward who can guard different spots and play different spots. There’s a role for him.”
0:25
Marcus Sasser makes a beautiful lob to Jarace Walker who skies to the rim for a powerful jam.
Kelvin Sampson has his best chance at a national championship
What’s going on?
Houston has been as consistently successful as any program in college basketball over the last five seasons under Kelvin Sampson. Three Sweet 16s, two Elite Eight appearances and a Final Four run in 2021 — with at least 27 wins in each of the four seasons that featured an NCAA tournament run. But this year might be his best group yet. Sampson-coached teams are always going to be elite defensively and on the offensive glass, but this squad has hoopers on the offensive end too. Marcus Sasser is an All-American, Jarace Walker was a five-star prospect and Jamal Shead is a high-level playmaker.
Will it last?
While other preseason top-10 teams have struggled, Houston has been absolutely dominant. The Cougars beat a Northern Colorado team that won 21 games last season by 47, Saint Joseph’s Hawks by 26 and Oral Roberts by 38. They scored at least 81 points in each, and didn’t allow more than 55. The schedule stiffens up starting on Sunday at Oregon, but this team is the real deal. In fact, they moved up to No. 1 in ESPN’s Power Rankings earlier this week.
What they’re saying
“You’re overwhelmed by them. You can sit there and watch them on film, but it’s different,” one opposing coach said. “They’re comfortable in iso. There’s no spacing with Houston. When they’re in iso, everyone is running to the rim. They’re not trying to drive and kick. They want to get a shot up. [Tramon] Mark, [Marcus] Sasser can make shots. Jamal [Shead] hasn’t made a 3 but he’s got like 24 assists to two turnovers. They just go. They shoot 15-foot floaters. If you play your traditional defense, they don’t care about any of that stuff. The one thing I didn’t anticipate is their speed. [Jarace] Walker is fast. Shead, Mark, Sasser. They have tremendous speed. Teams that beat them in the past hold them on the offensive glass. I don’t know how you do that to this team.”
“They play the same no matter who they are playing,” one coach who scouted them this season said. “You never have to worry if they play down to a lesser team and get upset. They shoot it well, they are more athletic now and the defense and rebounding are non-negotiable.”
0:20
UCLA piles it on against Sacramento State, courtesy of Jaylen Clark on the defensive end.
Jaylen Clark‘s emergence makes UCLA a Final Four contender
What’s going on?
Clark was a pretty easy pick as a potential breakout candidate this season: During a five-game stretch of starts in 2021-22 (he only started six total), he averaged 14.8 points and 6.4 rebounds. But would he be able to do that consistently as a full-time starter? In the first three games of this season, Clark has averaged 17.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 4.3 steals in 27.0 minutes. He’s also made seven 3s in three games after making nine across the first 60 of his career.
Will it last?
During his first two seasons in Westwood, Clark established himself as one of the premier defensive players in the Pac-12 as well as a solid option off the bench for Mick Cronin. In the starting lineup, though, Clark has brought a different dimension to the Bruins at both ends. He can space the floor and provide more driving lanes for Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Amari Bailey, and he’s also bringing a bit more aggressiveness to UCLA’s halfcourt defense.
What they’re saying
“If I had my NBA hat on, Jaylen Clark would be the guy I would look at,” one opposing coach said. “He is a 3-and-D guy and does all the dirty work that NBA teams like. He reminds me of a P.J. Tucker. If and when his 3-point shot gets consistent, he does so much to affect the game without them running any plays for him. The kid knows who he is. Mick coaches him hard and he does all the little things that show up and equal winning.”
0:16
Damian Dunn denies Villanova Wildcats with stuff
Villanova is taking a step back in the post-Jay Wright era
What’s going on?
In its first season since Jay Wright suddenly retired last spring, Villanova is off to a 2-1 start — with the loss coming at Temple and one of the wins coming at home over Delaware State Blue Hens in a game that was nip-and-tuck for about 37 minutes. Delaware State hasn’t won a Division I game since March 6, 2021, to be clear. So, it’s not really clicking for Kyle Neptune’s team at either end of the floor. Over the last two games, Villanova has made just seven of its 34 3-point attempts after going 13-for-20 in the season opener against La Salle. The Wildcats allowed more than 1.04 points per possession in each of their first two games.
Will it last?
Neptune doesn’t have a complete roster at his disposal right now. Justin Moore, a first-team All-Big East selection in 2021-22, is out until at least the second half of the season after tearing his Achilles in the Elite Eight, while freshman Cameron Whitmore, a projected lottery pick, underwent right thumb surgery in October and hasn’t played yet. Caleb Daniels, Brandon Slater and Eric Dixon are back, but the rest of the roster just isn’t top-25-caliber yet.
What they’re saying
“They’re allowing a ton of open shots. It’s just way more undisciplined defensively,” said one coach who scouted them last season and this season. “[Their struggles] also show the importance of amazing point guard play, obviously — which they do not have. Whitmore will help a lot. And [Mark] Armstrong showed some life at the end of the last game.”
0:35
Northwestern State holds on in final seconds to grab an upset victory over TCU.
A preseason top-25 ranking was too lofty for TCU
What’s going on?
After bringing back every key player from last season’s NCAA tournament team, TCU found itself ranked inside the top 20 entering 2022-23. But the Horned Frogs have struggled more than any top-25 team in the country thus far. They had to erase a 20-point deficit to beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff by one, beat Lamar by 11 and then lost to Northwestern State on Monday night. All three opponents were ranked in the bottom 10 nationally at KenPom before facing TCU. The Horned Frogs’ defense has been fine, but their offense has been poor: they’re 14-for-74 (18.9%) from 3-point range.
Will it last?
TCU beat too many top-25 teams last season for this version of the Horned Frogs to be as good as it gets. They were without All-American Mike Miles Jr. for Monday’s loss and starting guard Damion Baugh is suspended for the first six games of the season for signing with an NBA certified agent last spring. At full strength, Jamie Dixon’s team will look much more dangerous offensively and should more closely resemble last year’s group.
What they’re saying
“Baugh is really important to them because he takes pressure off Mike Miles,” one Big 12 coach said. “They definitely have some shooting issues if both are out. [Micah] Peavy, [Emanuel] Miller and even [Shahada] Wells are average shooters if I’m being nice.”
Saint Mary’s is staking its claim as the best non-Gonzaga mid-major again
What’s going on?
Saint Mary’s earned a 5-seed in last season’s NCAA tournament and throttled Indiana in the first round. But after the departures of Matthias Tass and Tommy Kuhse, the Gaels were not expected to reach the same heights this season. Yet, Randy Bennett’s club has quietly had one of the most impressive first weeks of the season, beating Oral Roberts, Vermont and North Texas — three teams that could find themselves in the 2023 NCAA tournament. Saint Mary’s is shooting better than 42% from 3 as a team, and freshman Aidan Mahaney is averaging 12.3 points and had 25 points in the season opener.
Will it last?
San Diego State, Dayton and perhaps even Saint Louis could make an argument to be the best mid-major team not named Gonzaga, but Saint Mary’s will be in the conversation. Bennett has won 162 games over the last six non-pandemic seasons, and the Gaels have the combination of experience, depth and (potentially) a top-20 defense to be a factor once again come March.
What they’re saying
“If you look at them last year, that’s a team that beat Gonzaga by 10. Three of their guys started on a team that beat Indiana by 40 and beat Gonzaga. They have a style of play,” one opposing coach said. “Mitchell Saxen is good. He scores over size and length. Seeing a guy that size being able to score like that around the block. Logan Johnson and the others, Kyle Bowen and Alex Ducas, were all there a year ago. Those guys are better. They start [Augustas] Marciulionis and bring [Aidan] Mahaney off the bench. But their post player is good and Mahaney makes 3s. I don’t know if Mahaney is there yet when you pressure him, but he makes open shots. And Randy Bennett-coached teams control the tempo. Vermont was No. 1 in defensive rebounding last year and Saint Mary’s throttled them. They get a lot of rebound kick-outs.”