Louisville vs. Kentucky for the No. 1 prospect, Mikey Williams’ next steps and more recruiting storylines

The most important recruiting month of the year is set to begin Wednesday, as thousands of high school players and hundreds of coaches from every level of college basketball hit the road for the first of two live evaluation periods.

It’s a month that has changed in form several times over the past couple decades, starting as a 25-day marathon, then going from two 10-day periods to three five-day periods, mixing in one summer of short-lived NCAA-run events — and now settling on two five-day periods. For now, at least.

Frequent flier miles and Marriott points will be accrued, scholarships will be offered and reputations will be solidified.

What are the biggest storylines we’re watching over the next few weeks?

1. Is there real competition for the No. 1 spot?

Entering most July periods, there’s a debate for the top spot, a potential opening for someone to emerge and claim No. 1 — or at least make a strong case for it. Shaedon Sharpe did just that last summer, averaging 22.6 points on the Nike EYBL circuit and skyrocketing all the way to No. 1 in the class. Back in the 2020 class, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Evan Mobley were locked in a battle at the top.

Is that the case in 2023? D.J. Wagner has sat atop the rankings for most of his high school career and has done nothing in the past few months to make anyone question that status, leading Camden High School (New Jersey) to the state championship and then averaging better than 20 points during the spring EYBL circuit with the NJ Scholars AAU team.

Meanwhile, Wagner’s stiffest competition hasn’t really closed the gap. Kwame Evans, the current No. 2, had an inconsistent spring performance, averaging 8.2 points. No. 3-ranked senior Mackenzie Mgbako has looked terrific — including one day in April when he had 25 points and 15 rebounds against the Albany City Rocks and 32 points against Team Takeover — but he plays on the same team as Wagner, and Wagner is clearly the star of the group. Fellow top-five prospects Ron Holland and Robert Dillingham are also in the mix; Dillingham has the takeover ability like Wagner, while Holland’s relentless motor and two-way ability make him a threat.

So can anyone make a run at Wagner? North Carolina commit G.G. Jackson (No. 6) could be a real candidate. He nearly averaged a double-double during the spring and then earned MVP of the prestigious NBPA Top 100 Camp.

Speaking of Wagner, the biggest recruiting battle in the class has centered around Wagner, and it’s an in-state fight between Louisville and Kentucky. John Calipari coached Wagner’s father, Dajuan Wagner, at Memphis, while new Louisville coach Kenny Payne played with Wagner’s grandfather, Milt Wagner, on the Cardinals’ 1986 national championship team.

Payne also took the step of hiring Milt, the former Louisville star, as the program’s director of player development and alumni relations.

“It’s going to be D.J.’s decision. I’ll be happy regardless,” Dajuan Wagner said in April. “My dad loves Louisville. And D.J. loves Louisville, too, because that’s where his grandpa went. Cal, that’s family. D.J.’s been coming to his camps since he was 5, 6 years old. I’d take him to the father-son camp and all that stuff. But Cal knows the relationship with Kenny. Kenny was there when we were going to the camps.”

3. Bluebloods off to a hot start in the race for No. 1

It’s a blueblood party at the top of the 2023 class. Five of the top 10 prospects in the class are already committed — it was six before Mookie Cook decommitted from Oregon last week — and all five are committed to either Duke, Kentucky or North Carolina.

Jon Scheyer’s momentum in the 2022 class has carried over to 2023, with Duke having pledges from Mgbako (No. 3), Sean Stewart (No. 7), Caleb Foster (No. 22) and Jared McCain (No. 24), all four considered five-star prospects.

North Carolina also has a pair of top-10 recruits in Jackson and Simeon Wilcher (No. 10). Kentucky landed elite guard Robert Dillingham (No. 5) in late June, joining top-30 guard Reed Sheppard (No. 29) in the Wildcats’ class.

Given its quartet of five-star prospects, Duke has a clear leg up in the race for No. 1 in the recruiting class rankings, but it’s not over yet. Kentucky is considered the favorite for five-star center Aaron Bradshaw (No. 20), while the Wildcats are also in pursuit of top-ranked Wagner, Ron Holland (No. 4), Justin Edwards (No. 13), Ugonn Kingsley-Onyenso (No. 36) and others.

One potential school to watch could be Arizona, which already has a five-star commitment from Kylan Boswell, another ESPN 100 pledge in K.J. Lewis (No. 61) and is heavily in the mix for Evans (No. 2) and Cook (No. 8).

4. Can spring and early summer risers back it up in July?

Since our last rankings update in April, we’ve had the spring grassroots circuit, two scholastic live periods, the NBPA Top 100 Camp, USA Basketball training camp. Needless to say, things have changed dramatically.

But can the spring stock-boosters repeat those performances in front of hundreds of college coaches this month? Here are some names to watch.

Potential new faces to the rankings

C JP Estrella: The 6-foot-11 highly skilled post player has been making significant progress with his legitimate inside touch and face-up range with footwork. He needs to make rebounding and defense a focus.

SF Kaden Cooper: Cooper brings noticeable two-way ability and defends both on and off the ball with a low and wide base while being a productive rebounder. While he needs to be more efficient as a scorer, he manages to find opportunities.

SF Andrej Stojakovic: The son of former NBA All-Star Peja, Andrej stands at 6-foot-7 and has excellent positional size and ball skills. He is a confident player on the offensive side and can defend multiple positions as he improves.

C Xavier Booker: Booker is long with speed and mobility, an example of today’s archetype big who displays real perimeter skill, finishes well and changes shots. He has huge potential with more functional body strength and rebounding skills.

Players due for a rise in the rankings

C Brandon Garrison (No. 57): Oklahoma State, Texas and Oklahoma are all heavily involved in Garrison’s recruitment. He is a big post presence and rim runs effectively.

SF Stephon Castle (No. 54): The UConn commit has brought consistent leadership qualities with the ability to take over a game with his scoring prowess. He can play on or off the ball with feel.

SG Wesley Yates (No. 48): Yates had some very impressive games during the spring. His 3-point shot has confidence and range. He has made official visits to Washington, Stanford and Auburn, and unofficials to Houston, LSU and Baylor. He plans on visiting Arkansas in August, while Gonzaga and Memphis are also involved.

PF Milan Momcilovic (No. 51): Momcilovic is fluid and crafty with skill to open the floor or make the right play. His decision-making and positional size at 6-foot-9, 200 pounds, are intriguing. Iowa State, Minnesota, Michigan State and Virginia are involved.

5. Are there any surprise reclassifications in the cards?

The college basketball offseason was thrown into upheaval last August, when elite prospects Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren announced they were reclassifying from the 2022 class and enrolling in college right away. Both players ended up at Memphis, and while the Tigers — and Bates — didn’t live up to the preseason hype, it was a massive storyline at the time. They weren’t the only two players to reclassify after the July period either, with the likes of Justice Williams (LSU) and Corey Floyd Jr. (UConn) opting to move up a class.

Will any prospects in the 2023 class play the July period and then announce they’re going to enroll in college and play college basketball next season? Five-star prospects Elijah Fisher (Texas Tech) and Tyrese Proctor (Duke) already did so, as did Tennessee-bound Tobe Awaka. Kingsley-Onyenso has been rumored to be considering a move to 2022, but the most recent info had him sticking in ’23.

The biggest name to watch is elite prospect G.G. Jackson. Reclassification rumors have followed him for months, but he has continued to maintain that he has no plans to move into the 2022 class. In recent weeks, though, the rumors have kicked back up. North Carolina just picked up a commitment from Northwestern transfer Pete Nance in Jackson’s position, though, so would Jackson still go to Chapel Hill a year early? Or elsewhere? It’s worth noting he has yet to select a high school for next season after winning a state championship at Ridge View High School (South Carolina).

Jackson’s father told ESPN they’re choosing between Oak Hill Academy (Virginia), Legacy Early College (South Carolina) and Prolific Prep (California) for next season.

Williams has been one of the biggest stories in high school basketball for years. The five-star guard has 3.7 million Instagram followers, and his highlight videos on YouTube dating back to middle school have millions of views. One has 10 million views on its own.

Due to his immense fame — and his history of bouncing around to different high schools — Williams has long been considered a prime candidate to sidestep college and take an alternate route to the NBA, whether that’s via the G League Ignite or Overtime Elite paths. But he has also maintained in multiple interviews with a variety of outlets, both this summer and last summer, that he would like to play college basketball. And then Williams took an official visit to Kansas in late June.

One complicating factor in Williams going to college could be the multiyear Puma deal he signed last October, when he became the first American high school basketball player to sign a sneaker deal of that caliber. How would that impact his ability to suit up for a Nike-, Adidas- or Under Armour-sponsored college program?

7. Other recruiting nuggets to monitor

Five-star point guard Isaiah Collier (No. 14) will be back on the court in August as he is rehabbing a meniscus injury. He has been to Alabama, Cincinnati, USC and UCLA, and is scheduled to visit Michigan after the July evaluation period. Collier was also recently contacted by Kentucky.

“I will be visiting Michigan [at the] end of the month,” Collier told ESPN. “They have a rich history from the basketball tradition and have coaches that know how to get to the next level, and the education is top tier. I am potentially looking at November to make my decision.”

Evans, currently the No. 2 player in the class, plans to make his decision in August. He is down to Arizona, Auburn, Kentucky and Oregon.

Cook, who decommitted from Oregon last week, is looking at Arizona, Gonzaga and Kentucky if he goes the college route. But he also told ESPN he’s in the process of setting up a videoconference with the G League.