‘Don’t play and go seventh?’: College coaches on NBA draft surprises, best values

The headline for ESPN’s first 2022 mock draft last summer posed the question: Will it be Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero or someone else at No. 1? Holmgren was projected to go first overall, with Banchero right behind him at No. 2. Jabari Smith was seventh, although he moved up to fourth after the college season started in early November.

In other words, things were pretty stable at the top of this draft class for a long time — and the top three of Holmgren, Banchero and Smith, in some order, have been set in stone since very early in the college season.

Everyone has their specific preferences, but the general vibe was that this was a draft with three No. 1-caliber players, and there wasn’t much separation. And in conversations with college coaches after the draft, that sentiment continued. Some thought Banchero was the correct No. 1 pick, some thought Smith should have stayed at No. 1 as anticipated and some thought Holmgren’s uniqueness and ceiling were too much to pass up at the top.

What coaches had to say on Banchero:

“He’s the most complete of those top three guys, especially on the offensive end. He’s not a great defender, he’s going to have to continue to evolve as an offensive player, so he doesn’t get caught positionally as an old-school power forward. I think he’s got more wing potential, kind of in a poor man’s Carmelo Anthony mold. He needs to find a way to play to that instead of playing to like, I don’t know, a Paul Millsap. I understand the pick because guys like him, with that skill level — although you can look at a guy like Jabari Parker, who was like that and picked second but was out of the league quickly — but on a team with more upside athlete players, he can be more of a polished skillful player and be able to come in and make a big impact and put points on the board.”

“I thought he was a No. 1-caliber pick since Peach Jam in 2019. The versatility, the ability to make plays with the ball at his size. Good passer, can play in the post, can play facing the basket. He’s such a mismatch problem, whether it’s guarding him with a bigger guy or smaller guy. He’s got more toughness than people give him credit for. I think he’s a really tough player.”

“It went in the exact order I’d rank it. Paolo 1, Chet 2, Jabari 3. Paolo can handle the ball, you could put him in middle pick-and-roll, he can be the screen-setter, he can see over the defense, he’s a phenomenal passer. Offensively, he can do a little bit of everything, gets to the free throw line at a high rate. He did a good job of rebounding his position, he can be a grab-and-go guy.”

Coaches on Holmgren:

“I think he’s well worth the risk. I would’ve taken him No. 1. His ceiling is so high. He can do so much, he oozes potential. The draft is just one way to acquire talent. For most of those teams picking in the top of the draft, it’s the best way to pick a star. Chet can be the biggest star. Paolo is the best bet, but the largest upside pick is Chet. They’re swinging for the home run upside.”

“You’d watch and scout Gonzaga, he was never out of position defensively. He had tremendous patience on the offensive end. Playing with other experienced guys, whether it was Gonzaga wanting to go into [Drew] Timme, [Andrew] Nembhard in pick-and-rolls, there wasn’t a time Chet was like, “I didn’t touch the ball, I’m gonna jack up a shot.” Really high basketball IQ on both ends. Incredible shot-blocker. Great second jumper. He’s a guy that feels comfortable grabbing a defensive rebound and he doesn’t necessarily have to outlet the basketball. He brings a lot of versatility. The knock on him is his body hasn’t filled out. But there’s other examples of that. Giannis his first few years in Milwaukee had a body very similar to Chet. I don’t expect Chet to put on 50 pounds of muscle, but there’s a precedent.”

“It’s hard to say with Chet. You just haven’t seen anyone like him. He’s obviously got great length, great shot-blocker, he can rebound and push it, he can pass out of the short roll. He will make 3s. The physicality on the defensive end of the floor, whether he can stay healthy, what he’s able to hang his hat on offensively, those are the concerns.”

“Chet’s build is a concern to me. That’s a potential issue. At No. 2, you need to be a multi-time All-Star. It’s going to take time.”

Coaches on Smith:

“Jabari is going to be a great prospect. But offensively he’s a jump-shooter … just a jump-shooter. Paolo is further ahead and probably a little bit more ready. Jabari is a better down-the-line prospect based on his real potential as a 3-point shooter and rim protector. And he’s a better rebounder than he gets credit for.”

“He’s as talented as anybody in the draft. His shooting form is impeccable, he was a 40% 3-point shooter at his size. On the defensive end, he’s switchable, keeps guys in front, can guard one through five in the college game. In the NBA, you’re going to be able to utilize his defensive versatility, put him on a four or a two depending on matchup. He’s a righty, but wasn’t overly confident handling the ball, even with his right hand. He doesn’t utilize the dribble. He’s essentially a spot-up shooter right now. To get to that next level, he has to work on ball handling. He has to be able to handle the ball in traffic.”

Some other observations from coaches we surveyed:

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Eleven months ago, Shaedon Sharpe emerged as the No. 1 prospect in the 2022 high school class. Jaden Hardy, rated as the best guard in the 2021 class, was being projected as a top-three pick in the NBA draft.

Since then, Sharpe enrolled early at Kentucky and didn’t play a minute of college basketball, while Hardy went the G League Ignite route and averaged 19.8 points on inefficient shooting: 42.2% from 2, 31.7% from 3.

Sharpe went No. 7 on Thursday; Hardy at No. 37.

Sharpe is the better prospect — there’s very little debate about that — but a 30-pick gap?

“People are going to be as creative as possible to protect their draft status,” one college coach said. “You go somewhere and don’t play and go seventh, you go somewhere and do play and go 37th? I hope the model of going to school and not playing doesn’t take hold. As a basketball fan, I think you want to see these guys play.”

Focusing on Sharpe, the last time most coaches saw him play was at last summer’s Peach Jam, when he averaged 22.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and was generally the most dominant player every time he stepped on the floor. Going inside the top 10 despite being the draft’s mystery man was completely warranted according to coaches — and seventh might have been low.

“His explosiveness stands out,” one coach said. “He really has pop off the floor. He spent the better part of the last year really honing the rough edges in his game [in practice], smoothing out the rough edges in his game … as a jump-shooter, in terms of his ability to play in the pick-and-roll game. Early on in his career … he was more of a wing athlete. Heading into last summer with UPlay and then throughout the year at Kentucky, he smoothed out his off-the-dribble game, got more shot-creation.”

Sharpe wasn’t a bad shooter last summer, making 36.1% of his 3-pointers and 67.4% of his free throw attempts. But it was an area to improve upon.

“He needs to become a more consistent shooter,” one coach who scouted him last summer said. “The feedback is he’s improved in that area. He’s got pretty good shot mechanics, it’s been the focus of his skill development program for the last year or so. I would anticipate he’s a better shooter than the last time we saw him on a big stage at the Peach Jam. … If he can get to the point where he can be a pick-and-roll player, make high-level passing reads, his game can evolve. If he’s playing off his athleticism and is a transition player, he can be solid as well, but how he gets himself into the upper echelon of young guards is determined by whether or not he becomes more complete with the ball in his hands.”

As for Hardy, the Dallas Mavericks might have gotten a steal in the second round. Despite his G League struggles, Hardy is still considered one of the elite scorers in the draft class

“I think he’s really good,” one coach said. “I think Hardy might be more skilled than Shaedon Sharpe. Sharpe is bigger and more explosive, but in terms of skill level with ball in his hands and ability to create shots and the potential to get buckets, I would say Hardy is either equal or potentially further along. Jaden Hardy — as a young player playing against older, more experienced players [in the G League] — struggled with efficiency and consistency. Depending on the sort of opportunity he has early on, could really outplay his draft status.”

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Santa Clara product’s big rise: ‘His intangibles are insane’

As recently as late February, Jalen Williams was nowhere to be found on ESPN’s 2022 mock draft. Even in April, he was only in the 50s.

Last Thursday, Williams was the 12th pick in the NBA draft, with the Oklahoma City Thunder nabbing him with the third of their three lottery picks.

A 6-foot-6 small forward, Williams was arguably the biggest winner of the pre-draft process, excelling at the NBA draft combine and also measuring a 7-foot-2 wingspan. It’s a remarkable story, going from a player without much college interest for the first half of his high school career, and averaging 7.7 points two years ago as a freshman.

“When we played them, we thought, ‘How is he not a first-round pick?’ Now, we didn’t think we would be proven correct or that he would go in the lottery,” one WCC coach said. “But he’s what you look for in the draft. 6-5, 6-6, can shoot, pass, dribble. Guards multiple positions. I think it’s a home run pick. His offensive feel with that size and length is incredible. He’s an awesome offensive player.”

“Even at a young age, he was freakishly long and could make 3s,” said one coach who recruited him in high school and followed his career. “His intangibles are insane. He wasn’t even on the map until the combine. It went from, ‘He’s an intriguing guy in the second round’ — and then he shot up there. But if you watched him play Gonzaga, from an athletic and basketball standpoint, he fit right in with the Gonzaga players.”

One coach posed a comparison for the first-team all-WCC selection who averaged 18.0 points and 4.2 assists last season.

“I think he can be a better version of Caris LeVert,” he said. “Elite secondary ball-handler, makes plays for others, better shooter than LeVert. That’s the idea. Elite secondary playmaker, probably not your first ball-handler.”

There are some concerns, however. Even among the coaches who are huge fans of the pick, there were questions as to why he didn’t consistently dominate against theoretically inferior individual competition in the WCC and wasn’t perceived as a first-round talent until well into the process.

“There’s something a little off with his toughness. I can’t exactly put my finger on it,” one coach said. “He didn’t exactly dominate games. Teams could hedge ball-screens, mess up rhythm, and he wasn’t able to adjust. He’s awesome, but he wasn’t dominant.”

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Patrick Baldwin Jr. and Peyton Watson were both five-star prospects in the 2022 high school class, and both made interesting college decisions. Baldwin Jr. spurned offers from blue bloods to play for his father, Pat, at Milwaukee, while Watson opted to go to an experienced UCLA team coming off a Final Four appearance.

Neither move worked out. Baldwin Jr. played in just 11 games because of an ankle injury, and struggled when he was on the floor. Watson averaged 3.3 points and saw double-digit minutes just six times in the final two months of the season for UCLA.

Yet both players heard their name called on Thursday night by Adam Silver, not second-round MC Mark Tatum, with Baldwin going No. 28 and Watson going No. 30.

Naturally, college coaches were mixed on the picks.

Baldwin had been considered a top-10 recruit for most of his high school career, and was the highest-ranked recruit to ever commit to a Horizon League program.

“I thought Baldwin did enough to harm his reputation by playing as poorly as he did,” one coach said. “For him to go in the first round, I’m sure he feels that’s a great success. He’s got a really clean-looking jump shot, but he hasn’t consistently made shots recently at USA Basketball and Milwaukee. That has to be his calling card.”

“He settled for a lot of jumpers,” added one coach who faced him this season. “He hit some hard, rhythm-dribble pull-ups. I don’t think he played well. He seemed talented but teams forced him to make tough shots. I was surprised he went in the first round.”

Meanwhile, Watson was a late-riser who entered the season as a top-10 pick after flashing elite tools as his high school career progressed.

“I was never a huge Peyton Watson fan. People were really impressed by him in a USA Basketball setting, made him a projected lottery pick, but maybe did not expect a huge statistical year at UCLA,” one coach said. “UCLA gave him opportunities, but they were built to win, they had a lot of experienced players. There wasn’t room to live with the mistakes and immaturity that he played with on the floor sometimes. But he had people that are staunch believers, that’s why he went in the first round. There’s never been a first-round pick that averaged three points a game. I would’ve thought you had to be a little more productive. If UCLA feels that putting you into the game hurts their chances of winning, that seems bad.”

One Pac-12 coach might have been one of those “staunch believers” to which the other coach alluded.

“I think the first round was about right,” he said. “He wasn’t made for UCLA’s system. He had the bad luck of finding a UCLA team that went to the Final Four and brought back everyone. He is not skilled, but he’s a long, big wing and you can bet on him. I think his defense and open-floor game can be successful. But he needs to become a real player.”

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What to make of Duke’s big night

Duke earned many of the headlines on Thursday night; the Blue Devils had the No. 1 pick, four first-round selections and five players picked in total. Although their national championship hopes ended in the Final Four, they were clearly the pace-setters in the draft.

Banchero went No. 1, Mark Williams was No. 15, AJ Griffin went No. 16, Wendell Moore Jr. was picked at No. 26 and Trevor Keels dropped to No. 41.

One of the bigger talking points coming out of this group was Moore going 15 spots ahead of Keels despite Keels ranking higher on many mock drafts — including ESPN’s pre-draft rankings. Coaches were split on which player should have gone higher.

“I thought Moore was a better prospect than Keels,” one said. “He’s a better athlete. Moore was like that swiss army knife. Versatility. He can do everything. He had a triple-double. He’s just a little bit more complete than Trevor Keels — and AJ Griffin, in my opinion. So the late first round makes sense to me. That didn’t surprise me. He’s a professional guy.”

“I thought Keels would maybe go a little bit higher,” another coach said. “He needs to continue to get himself into better shape, be consistent with his 3-point shooting. I thought Wendell Moore went a little bit [too] high. I viewed him as more of a second-round pick. I think Keels is the better player, but I think people look at Moore as maybe being a little bit further along in terms of being able to assimilate into a role, defend, be a utility guy. Keels needs the ball in his hand and scoring opportunities might be harder to come by.”

Williams, a 7-foot center, made major strides between his freshman and sophomore seasons. He established himself as one of the best shot-blockers in the country and one of the most efficient inside scorers in college basketball, averaging 2.8 blocks and shooting better than 72% from the field.

“I loved Mark Williams,” one ACC coach said. “I thought he was as valuable to their team as anybody. He just made it so hard to get to the basket and finish at the basket. You had to worry about where he was. I think there’s a role for a guy who can run, he can pass, he can be a flip-up lob guy in pick-and-roll. I think he can be a Bam Adebayo type of guy. I would’ve taken him ahead of Jalen Duren.”

“His game is kind of against the grain for an NBA big guy, because the NBA wants guys that can step out and shoot it, but every NBA team needs a guy like him that can come in and bring energy,” another opposing coach said. “He should have a long career in the NBA. Maybe not a star. But a guy that can contribute.”

Griffin got off to a slow start after suffering a knee injury in the preseason, but he worked his way into the starting lineup in mid-January and averaged 12.1 points on 44.7% 3-point shooting the rest of the way.

“I honestly think AJ Griffin is — not a top-five guy, but six through 10, he’s just as talented as anybody in that range,” one coach said. “He’s a really good shooter, can score off the bounce, moves well without the ball, has a high basketball IQ. The concerns with him are the injuries in high school, the injuries this year. But he’s probably the one guy of those Duke guys that had to sacrifice the most. He would get stuck in the corner sometimes because he was such an elite-level shooter. Didn’t really get a chance to showcase his game at times.”

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Five-star SEC guards suffer noteworthy falls

Tennessee’s Kennedy Chandler and Kentucky’s TyTy Washington Jr. were considered arguably the two best guards entering college basketball last season, with the two stars ranking as the No. 1 and No. 2 point guards, respectively, in the ESPN 100 for 2021.

And both players backed up that billing as freshmen, with Chandler averaging 13.9 points and 4.7 assists and Washington putting up 12.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.9 assists.

Chandler opened the season as a lottery pick, floated around the first round for most of the campaign and settled in as a mid-first round pick. Washington was a borderline lottery pick nearly all season. Both players saw their stocks dip during the pre-draft process, however, with Washington waiting until No. 29 to hear his name called and Chandler lasting all the way until the eighth pick of the second round.

Will one or both be considered a steal when we look back, or were the drops warranted?

Washington generated more positive feedback from opposing coaches.

“His stock dropped recently, hasn’t worked out well for teams,” one said. “It’s curious. I feel like Patrick Baldwin got drafted in large part to his reputation as a 15, 16-year old. He didn’t play to that recently. TyTy Washington was a big name, came into the season as a projected top-10 player and had a pretty good season at Kentucky. It seems a little bit arbitrary. Some teams really value the workout process, having guys in their building goes a long way to making their evaluations. It swings these ranges so dramatically.”

An ankle injury that hampered the second half of his season was the likely culprit for his fall. Prior to the injury, Washington was shooting around 40% from 3 and also posted 17 assists in one game.

“He was a guy that was a lottery talent,” an SEC coach said. “He’s got good size, he was probably the most complete player on that Kentucky team. He played on both ends. Offensive end, he could drive it, set the table for guys, make 3s. Really good, really solid player. Part of the reason he fell is his injury. He wasn’t the same in the SEC games, SEC tournament and then the one game in the NCAA tournament. Thought he would’ve been 12-to-16 range if he stayed healthy. Not a top-10 talent, but borderline lottery. We’re talking about a minor injury, it’s not a lingering thing. Getting him at 29 because he came back too soon from an injury? That’s a steal.”

Chandler doesn’t have quite the same physical profile as Washington, measuring at just over 6-foot in shoes at the combine. But he’s answered some of the questions about his perimeter shooting, making better than 38% of his outside attempts as a freshman with the Volunteers. However, his 60.6% clip from the free throw line is mildly concerning.

“I think he’s a rare combination of a guy who’s faster with the ball than he is without the ball,” an SEC coach said. “Part of the reason his stock dropped, there were times Tennessee had three ballhandling guards out on the floor with him, [Zakai] Zeigler and [Santiago] Vescovi. If you watched Tennessee the first eight or 10 games of the year when Chandler was showcased, he was making plays, he was the primary ball handler. As the season went on, they found success with the three-point guard lineup. Chandler was the better driver, Zeigler was the shooter, it changed things up. From a defensive standpoint, he has quick hands, he could switch out. He obviously doesn’t have ideal size, but he can switch out and guard bigger players. For NBA people, his size probably came into the equation more than anything. But he’s a first-round talent. I was surprised to see him fall into the second round.”

Another coach thought the second round was a pretty fair valuation for Chandler.

“I think he is a really good player, but I’m more in line with where he got picked, not the late teens, early 20s,” he said. “He’s very small, I know he’s got long arms and maybe he plays a little bit bigger, but there’s not a lot of people that have had success with that physical profile in the NBA, unless there’s something incredibly dynamic about them. He has a great understanding for the position, had a very good freshman year, but I think [second round] is probably right.”

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Good picks, bad picks

The top three picks have been set in stone for months, if not the entire college season — but at least one coach thought someone from outside that top trio should have received more consideration for the No. 1 selection.

“I would’ve considered Jaden Ivey at 1,” he said. “The game is dominated by guards and wings. Ivey has the speed, athleticism and size of an NBA All-Star. He’s gotta fine-tune elements of his decision-making and passing, he can stand to give a much better effort defensively. But he has defensive potential based on his athletic profile. He has unbelievable offensive potential as a transition player, downhill attacker, he can play out of pick-and-roll. If he can evolve as a playmaker and as a passer, you have a potential All-Star.”

One player who drew rave reviews from multiple coaches as a potential value pick was Gonzaga point guard Andrew Nembhard, who went with the first pick of the second round to the Indiana Pacers.

“I love Nembhard at 31,” one coach said. “He’s a really good player. I don’t know if he’s ever a star or a starter in this league, but he has incredible basketball IQ, he’s a magician in pick-and-rolls, he can read every coverage. He finds a way to attack the weakness of pick-and-roll. He’s a guy that’s going to contribute to winning at the next level. He’s just a really good player.”

Notre Dame’s Blake Wesley going No. 25 to the San Antonio Spurs generated differing opinions. Wesley started his college career with a terrific first two or three months, but was inconsistent down the stretch and didn’t blow onlookers away during the NCAA tournament. One coach thought it was surprising to see the Spurs go for him after already picking Malaki Branham earlier in the first round, while one ACC coach sung Wesley’s praises.

“I like Blake Wesley,” he said. “He’s dynamic, he can score in a variety of ways. He can make plays with the ball. He can jump up and make a shot from anywhere. He played fearlessly. He competes. You feel him in the game.”

Memphis’ two first-round picks raised some eyebrows, trading a first-round pick to move up three spots to take Wake Forest’s Jake LaRavia at No. 19 and then snagging David Roddy at No. 23. There’s a chance both would have been there at the Grizzlies’ original selections, and maybe even in the second round in Roddy’s case. As one coach pointed out, though, Memphis isn’t afraid to go against the grain in the draft — and likely has a specific plan for Roddy. As for LaRavia, the former Indiana State transfer really boosted his stock in the pre-draft process.

“Was LaRavia the 19th-best player in the draft? I don’t know. But was it too early? No. I think that was the top end of his range,” one coach said. “The biggest knock on him was the shooting. He didn’t have the volume of 3s made. But he proved that he could shoot it, then he went to the combine and wore it out. A guy like that, he has good shot mechanics, he’s going to work and improve on it. And he can do so much stuff. And if that’s what you need — like Memphis, they have a dynamic guy in Ja [Morant], they have their other pieces — he fits what they need, he’s terrific at that.”

Other picks coaches liked:

Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona (No. 6 to Indiana): “I think Benn Mathurin is going to be really good. I think he fits in nicely with guys like [Tyrese] Haliburton and [Chris] Duarte, I think he’s going to impress people early on. He’s a better shooter than people realize, I think he’ll come in and make a real big impact.”

Christian Koloko, Arizona (No. 33 to Toronto): “I was surprised he didn’t get more first-round consideration. He’s trending in a good way.”

E.J. Liddell, Ohio State (No. 41 to New Orleans): “I liked that pick at 41. I would’ve considered him in the late first, early second. He’s got a lot of game.”

Christian Braun, Kansas (No. 21 to Denver): “I know the Nuggets are really excited about Christian Braun. It was maybe a reach, but he’s overachieved every step of the way. I wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes a real player.”

MarJon Beauchamp, G League Ignite (No. 24 to Milwaukee): “I think he’s got a lot of maturing to do, but he’s really talented. Milwaukee can use some help on the wing, so if he can get his footing, he can be a guy that, in a few years, we look back and say, ‘That was a good one.'”

Dalen Terry, Arizona (No. 18 to Chicago): “I loved the Dalen Terry pick. When we’re talking about guys outside of the lottery, years down the road, he’s going to be looked at as a steal. Great versatility, he’s got everything. Made major strides from his freshman year to his sophomore year.”