The 2022 NBA draft will give a selection of the league’s worst teams a chance to select a player who can improve their fortunes for next season and beyond. The Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons each have 14% odds to obtain that No. 1 pick, and it stands to reason that each is in the process of planning for that scenario and others of a less favorable variety.
But compared to previous drafts, there is less of a consensus in this year’s event on who the first pick in the draft should be. There will be no Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards or Zion Williamson at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn on June 23, but rather a handful of potentially elite prospects including Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith and Paolo Banchero.
The three teams mentioned above — or another team, should the lottery balls align in a certain way at the May 17 draft lottery — will have a tough choice at No. 1.
What should each member of this group of three do if they win the top pick in the 2022 NBA draft? What if they fall out of the top three? ESPN’s NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz considered these questions with the draft lottery just two weeks away:
Houston Rockets
No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-three odds: 40%
Player the Rockets should select with the No. 1 pick: Chet Holmgren
The Rockets would surely be excited to add any of the elite frontcourt players projected at the top in Holmgren, Smith or Banchero. You could make an argument that each of them is an ideal fit considering their strengths. Smith’s combination of dynamic shooting and perimeter defense is just as much of a need as the shot-creation, passing and shot-making Banchero offers.
Holmgren gets the nod here in my view as the most talented player in the draft, as well as having the most potential to impact the Rockets’ defense, which ranked last in the NBA last year, as no other team gave up more points in the paint last season.
Holmgren’s elite combination of mobility, length and timing, which helped him average 5.3 blocks per-40 minutes, should help alleviate Houston’s defensive struggles immediately.
Holmgren also looks like an ideal fit next to franchise cornerstone Jalen Green, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, with his ability to both space the floor (39% 3P%), and finish around the basket (74% 2P%). He’s lethal busting out off the defensive glass, and holds significant potential as a shot-creator and passer himself, something we didn’t see as much of at Gonzaga where he was asked to play more of a complementary role.
Holmgren is also a good fit alongside Houston’s 2021 first-rounder Alperen Sengun, an extremely skilled offensive player who desperately needs to be paired with the right frontcourt partner to be most effective. He’d also have no issues playing alongside incumbent starter Christian Wood, the Rockets’ leading scorer, who is very skilled in his own right.
Most important is the impact Holmgren could make on helping the Rockets establish a winning culture. He plays a selfless style of basketball while bringing the type of toughness and unselfishness the team sorely lacks.
– Givony
Player the Rockets should select if they fall out of the top three: Jaden Ivey or Keegan Murray
Despite having the NBA’s worst record, the Rockets still have a 60% chance of falling to the No. 4 or 5 slot, which would be an incredibly disappointing outcome, but would still leave them in position to draft an impact player.
The prospect of pairing Ivey with Jalen Green in the backcourt is one the Rockets will have to closely study in this scenario. They’d form, arguably, the most explosive backcourt in the NBA with their transition-scoring prowess, ability to powerfully beat opponents off the dribble and highlight-reel finishing operating above the rim. They also duplicate each other somewhat with their streaky shooting, inconsistent decision-making and defensive lapses, but would have quite a bit of room to grow together long-term, as both are just 20 years old (born four days apart). While big men are the strength of this draft, there’s no question that shot-creating guards are the engines behind the best teams in the NBA. For Houston, a chance to have two all-star caliber guards in the same backcourt has to be attractive, duplicative or not.
Murray is also someone the Rockets will surely look at. As the best player in college basketball last season, he presents perhaps the most straightforward path back to respectability as a plug-and-play, soon-to-be 22-year-old power forward with elite scoring instincts and a complete all-around game.
Murray averaged a scorching 29 points per-40 (best in this draft class) on outstanding efficiency (65% true shooting) without a real point guard alongside him and often without all that many plays being called for him. He’s a versatile defender who spearheaded Iowa’s press while also showing the ability to operate as a small-ball center, making him a strong fit alongside Houston’s existing frontcourt options.
– Givony
Orlando Magic
No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-three odds: 40%
Player the Magic should select with the No. 1 pick: Chet Holmgren
While you could make an argument for Banchero or Smith, Holmgren makes the most sense for the Magic at No. 1 given what he offers both as a rim protector, a lob threat and a floor spacer. Then add in that Holmgren was high school and AAU teammates with Magic guard Jalen Suggs, and there’s a cultural fit and level of familiarity in play as well.
On one hand, a Magic team that ranked 30th in the NBA in points per possession and 28th in eFG% could use a mismatch shot creator like Banchero or a versatile scorer like Smith. But the Magic have no shortage of shot creators in Suggs, Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, and adding Holmgren would only enhance the rest of Orlando’s pieces. Holmgren would give those guards — and Franz Wagner — more space to operate while providing a vertical threat in pick-and-roll.
Wagner and Holmgren in 4/5 pick-and-rolls would give opposing defenses fits, and head coach Jahmal Mosley could even use Holmgren as the primary handler in ball screens to spring free Magic shooters for open looks since the 7-footer boasts strong ball handling and feel for the game. Holmgren also offers the type of rim protection that Wendell Carter Jr. historically hasn’t, while the 23-year-old Magic center has the 250-pound frame to handle the physical bigs the lean Holmgren figures to struggle with. Because of his skill set and agility, Holmgren can function in jumbo lineups alongside Suggs (6-4), Wagner (6-10), Jonathan Isaac when healthy (6-11) and Wendell Carter Jr. (6-10), giving the Magic the type of length and versatility its front office typically covets.
Holmgren offers many elements that the Orlando brass hoped for when they selected Mo Bamba (a free agent after next season) 6th overall in 2018, but with a more advanced feel for the game, sharper ball skills and more revved up motor.
– Schmitz
Player the Magic should select if they fall out of the top three: Paolo Banchero or Shaedon Sharpe
I’d be looking long and hard at Murray, who I actually think belongs in the conversation with Banchero and Smith when we look at the top of the draft behind Holmgren. Although the Magic just drafted a 6-10 combo forward in Wagner, Murray can fit in pretty much any lineup because of his ability to knock down spot 3s, defend multiple positions and impact winning without needing much volume.
Murray is arguably the most NBA-ready prospect in the draft, and adding the Iowa forward would instantly make Orlando more competitive on both ends of the floor. It’s easy to envision him playing a similar role to what we see from Raptors star Pascal Siakam. He’s big and long enough to even slide up to the small-ball 5 spot for stretches, which he did regularly at Iowa on his way to 1.9 blocks per game in 31.5 minutes.
Murray was the most efficient scorer in college basketball last season with 23.5 points per game on 65% true shooting, and you don’t need to run much offense for him to get buckets, which makes him an excellent fit alongside Orlando’s shot creating guards. Murray, Wagner and a healthy Isaac would give the Magic three switchable forwards who can fill a variety of different roles on both ends.
18-year-old Sharpe is another prospect I’d strongly consider. Although he’s not as experienced as Murray or even Jaden Ivey, Sharpe has as high of an upside as any prospect in the draft at 6-6 with a 7-0 wingspan and the shot creation you look for in a No. 1 option. Sharpe’s effortless scoring ability, length, burst and leaping ability would perfectly complement the hard-playing Suggs, whose toughness and playmaking would take less pressure off of Sharpe in those areas.
If the Magic can remain patient and are looking to take more of a swing, Sharpe is the play. If they feel the pressure to get more competitive and aren’t worried about drafting another versatile forward, I’d lean Murray. – Schmitz
Detroit Pistons
No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-three odds: 40%
Player the Pistons should select with the No. 1 pick: Chet Holmgren
Holmgren is the ideal prospect to unlock the best parts of Cade Cunningham while addressing some of the Pistons’ most pressing issues. Until they added Marvin Bagley III, Detroit sorely lacked a lob catcher for Cunningham, as they shot just 60.6% at the rim last season, 28th in the league. Holmgren shot 80% at the rim last season, far and away the best mark in the NCAA among players to take at least 100 shots at the rim. He’s the best vertical spacer of the potential top-3 picks.
The Pistons also ranked 30th in the NBA in non-corner 3 accuracy at 32.1%, and 28th in frequency on above the break 3s. Smith addresses this need immediately, but he doesn’t offer the lob-catching AND rim protection as Holmgren, who shot 39% from beyond the arc as a freshman.
Adding a pick-and-pop threat like Holmgren will give Cunningham the necessary space to use his size, strength and skill level to score more efficiently inside the arc than he did as a rookie. Offensively, Holmgren also perfectly complements both Isaiah Stewart and Bagley III, while giving Saddiq Bey more space for mid-post isolations, where he’s really effective.
Smith is a strong fit on both ends given his stellar defense and ability to function as more of a piece early on in his career. While adding a 6-10, 250-pound offensive talent like Banchero would make the Pistons incredibly dynamic, he isn’t quite as natural of a fit alongside Cunningham. Banchero is still improving his ability to play off the catch, with much of his success coming from self-created shots.
On top of all that, the Pistons are sorely missing a true rim protector, and don’t have any real shot blockers. Holmgren wouldn’t have to worry about checking the NBA’s bruisers like Joel Embiid if he’s playing alongside a physical big like Stewart.`
So while Smith is an excellent fit alongside Cunningham and Bey, and adding an offensive talent like Banchero would take pressure off Cunningham and make the Pistons even more exciting, Holmgren plugs the most holes and can function as a complement to Detroit’s star point guard.
– Schmitz
Player the Pistons should select if they fall out of the top three: Jaden Ivey
No player projected outside the top 3 complements Cunningham quite like Ivey. His open-court speed, sudden burst and tremendous leaping ability meshes perfectly with Cunningham’s more methodical pace. Think James Harden and Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City from 2009 to 2012. Pistons general manager Troy Weaver has long been credited for pushing for Westbrook leading up to the 2008 draft, and I’d have to imagine he sees some similarities — at least physically and athletically — between the former UCLA guard and Ivey.
Cunningham rocks defenders to sleep and beats them with skill and deception like Harden, while Ivey can offer the type of peak-Westbrook speed in transition that’s so dangerous in the regular season. Although an incredibly efficient offense, Purdue ranked 237th in pace according to Kenpom.com, and Ivey’s ability to change ends in the blink of an eye figures to come to life even more in the wide-open NBA game.
Ivey has also greatly improved as a perimeter shooter, and he’s proven capable of adding value in multi-guard lineups like he did at Purdue. With Cunningham as the primary ball handler and on-court leader, Ivey can stick to his strengths early in his career while not being thrust into a lead guard or leadership role, which are both areas he still has considerable room to improve. Simply put, Ivey would give the Pistons an injection of excitement on a team that isn’t exactly loaded with high-flyers other than Hamidou Diallo. A young core of Cunningham, Bey and Ivey immediately makes the Pistons a League Pass favorite.
– Schmitz