FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — Quick-hit thoughts and notes around the New England Patriots and NFL:
1. Culture first: Last year at this time, it was all about the cash for the Patriots. They guaranteed more money in free agency than any team in history.
This year, the primary theme of the team’s free-agent activity projects to be more about culture.
Two pillars of what it means to be a Patriot — Devin McCourty (34) and Matthew Slater (36) — are among those scheduled to be free agents. While closer to the end of their careers, they have decided to play in 2022, according to sources.
And thus, before considering anything else, Bill Belichick and his staff must first ask, “Is it time to turn the page on two future Patriots Hall of Famers?”
The educated guess: Belichick will determine it isn’t.
And for a Patriots team with limited cap space compared to last year, bringing back Slater (minimal cap charge) and McCourty (who still figures to command a significant contract) could turn out to be their signature moves, resulting in them picking spots judiciously in other areas of free agency. It doesn’t rule out a big signing, but it would have to be viewed as a rare opportunity, similar to 2017 when the Patriots surprised by landing cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
Culture has been a critical component of the Patriots’ success in Belichick’s 22 seasons, and McCourty and Slater are two of the greatest leaders and tone-setters in the history of the organization. Once they depart, who carries the torch in their place?
Buying more time with them to help groom the next generation — perhaps led by quarterback Mac Jones — has merit as long as the team has another strong draft and develops others already on the roster.
2. Free-agent forecast: It’s always risky business to predict how things will unfold with Patriots free agents, but let’s have some fun and share this reporter’s viewpoint.
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More likely to depart: LB Ja’Whaun Bentley, OT Trent Brown, LB Jamie Collins Sr., LB Dont’a Hightower, CB J.C. Jackson
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More likely to stay: QB Brian Hoyer, McCourty, Slater
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Could go either way: RB Brandon Bolden, K Nick Folk, C/G Ted Karras, RB James White
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Bold predictions: Hightower in Pittsburgh, with the Brian Flores connection … Karras playing himself into a $5 million per-year range deal … Restricted free agents Gunner Olszewski and Jakob Johnson signing two-year deals instead of being tendered.
3. Hoyer’s value: Just as McCourty and Slater add value from a culture standpoint, Hoyer’s steady hand as a veteran mentor to Jones does, too. Also, a case could be made that Hoyer knows the offense as well — if not better — than most members of the offensive coaching staff after the departure of Josh McDaniels and three other assistants. Those are reasons Hoyer’s potential re-signing is more important to the Patriots than it might have been otherwise. Hoyer still wants to play, and it seems like a no-brainer for the Patriots to bring him back at a modest contract that still shows him a level of appreciation.
4. Folk’s future: When Adam Vinatieri became a free agent following the 2005 season, many in New England figured it was a fait accompli that he would re-sign with the Patriots. But Vinatieri made an agent switch, to Gary Uberstine, and ultimately shocked many by leaving for the Colts.
Could Folk, also represented by Uberstine, be headed down the same path 17 years later?
Similar to Vinatieri in ’05, the market for kickers of Folk’s caliber is forcing the Patriots to determine how willing they are to extend themselves to retain him, with developmental kicker Quinn Nordin already on the roster.
Folk, who has made 55 straight field goals within 50 yards, has been one of the NFL’s best bargains with cap numbers of $705,000 in 2020 and $1.3 million in 2021. He’s a top-5 kicker, but in the bottom half at his position in terms of compensation.
While he has developed a rapport with snapper Joe Cardona and holder Jake Bailey, and appreciates the Patriots’ belief in him after two years out of the NFL, it is expected to take more to entice him to sign this year. And with the league’s legal negotiating period beginning Monday, it is a surprise to some around the NFL that the sides have yet to come to an agreement.
The two-year, $4.5 million contract that Zane Gonzalez agreed to with the Panthers last week is the league’s most recent kicker contract. Some informed observers believe that’s a ballpark of where Folk can realistically expect to be. To others, it might not be enough because Folk, while older and not one to regularly kick off, has been better.
This is the essence of free agency for players and teams — understanding the market, seeing if a competitive bidding situation presents itself, and then each side adjusting accordingly. Thus, Folk as a potential flight risk — similar to Vinatieri in 2005 — might warrant more attention than perhaps it’s been getting.
5. Flowers’ roots: The Lions informed defensive end Trey Flowers that they intend to release him when the 2022 league year begins on Wednesday, according to the Detroit Free Press. Flowers was a fourth-round pick of the Patriots in 2015, and I’d expect them to explore bringing him home. A team can never have enough pieces up front to fortify the line of scrimmage, and Flowers is a prototype Patriot, on and off the field.
6. Mac and Andrews: A quarterback-center bond can be unique, with Tom Brady once describing it this way: “I’ve got my hands on their butts probably more than their wives, so it’s a pretty unique trust and relationship you have.” That line came to mind after learning that Jones and center David Andrews (recovering from shoulder surgery) are working out at the same facility this offseason.
7. Restricted market: Because the lowest tender offer for restricted agents is $2.4 million, which is a significant jump from the base salary of $850,000 many of those players were earning in 2021, more teams are declining to tender players and thus making them unrestricted free agents (e.g. Rams and LB Troy Reeder; Raiders and RB Alec Ingold etc.). This is a market the Patriots figure to monitor closely — for non-tendered players, or those who entered the NFL undrafted and wouldn’t require them to give up compensation if signing an offer sheet. Eagles offensive lineman Nate Herbig and Lions safety/special teamer C.J. Moore are two players who fit New England’s profile.
8. Coaching shuffle: When Patriots defensive coaches visited Boston College last week, notably missing was Ross Douglas, who had filled an NFL coaching fellowship role with the D last season after spending 2020 on Greg Schiano’s Rutgers staff as a graduate assistant. Although nothing has been announced, word is that Douglas could be moving to offense. That could then lead Belichick to fill another staff opening with an entry-level coach, perhaps tapping the pipeline through the Bill Walsh Minority Internship program.
9. Patriots and TAPS: On Tuesday, the Patriots hosted 20 young adults from the Tragedy Assistance Program for Survivors (TAPS), an organization that provides compassionate care to those grieving the death of a military loved one. The young adults heard from different members of the organization — from Pro Football Hall of Famer Andre Tippett, linebacker Jahlani Tavai, head athletic trainer Jim Whalen, director of organizational development Daryl Nelson, and others in finance, construction, analytics, media and more. The hope was to give them tools to succeed in life. It was well done, and a reminder that a franchise’s impact can extend far beyond the field of play.
10. Did You Know: McCourty is third on the Patriots’ all-time list for interceptions (31), behind Ty Law (36) and Raymond Clayborn (36). His 515 interception yards are also third, behind Law (583) and Clayborn (555).