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Dalen CuffESPN
February is upon us and with only the Super Bowl left to wager on, we’re here to fill that void with College Hoops insight and opportunity as we build into the sport’s crescendo in March. We’ll begin with the futures market, a few conference champ races that provide great value.
Big 12
Kansas: +140
The Big 12 is the best conference in the country with a true round-robin, 18-game schedule with possibly nine tournament teams (would be 10 if Oklahoma State wasn’t ineligible because NCAA sanctions). Kansas is in the lead right now at 6-1, but they’ve shown weaknesses especially on the defense end (52nd Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, 6th in league play).
This was on full display as Kentucky dismantled them at Phog Allen Fieldhouse this past weekend. That said, Big 12 play is different. The Jayhawks 2OT win over Texas Tech was huge for their poll position in the conference, but this will be a battle to the end.
Ochai Agbaji has National Player of the Year potential and helped close out huge wins against the Red Raiders with 37 points, including a game tying 3 to force OT and key plays in the late comeback road win over Kansas State. With Plus money, worth an investment here.
Texas Tech: +500
Texas Tech has a 5-3 conference record and some books have them at 5-1 odds.
However, they’ve already beaten Baylor on the road, have Kansas at home, are now finally fully healthy and are the third best team in the county in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
First year coach Mark Adams has the Red Raiders playing inspired basketball and they continue to improve offensively. Just ask Mississippi State who got trounced 76-50 in the Big-12/SEC Challenge this past weekend. The split with Kansas and the home game with Baylor to remain put them in good position to grab a share of the Big12 title in the end as every game is a battle and a 5 loss team can win this league.
ACC
Miami: +480
Miami is tied atop the ACC standings at 8-2 with Duke, who the Hurricanes beat at Cameron Indoor Stadium last month. The Canes have great guard play led by Isaiah Wong, Kameron McGusty and Charlie Moore. They spread you out, take you off the bounce, play well off each other and are surrounded by teammates who can make shots. Miami has several six-year seniors (including Moore and McGusty) and don’t commit many turnovers. They are good enough defensively to win games in an ACC that s just flat out not good.
With so much inconsistency and teams still searching for an identity. Miami has both those things and a tie breaker over the Blue Devils. Couple all that with +480 odds and I’m in.
Trends/Teams To Watch
Big 12 Unders
As I mentioned previously, the Big 12 is the best league in the country and it’s most clear on the defensive end as 9 of the 10 teams are in the top 36 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
However, in conference games the under is sub .500 at 34-40-2. Be weary of assuming there will be less points scored in these games. There are a few gems at not outputting points and limiting their opponents. Oklahoma State is 6-2 and TCU is 4-1-1. Stay away from West Virginia, who is 1-6 when playing the under and has allowed 77 points per game, losing 4 of their last 5.
North Carolina’s Inconsistency
The Tarheels usually get the big brand treatment and are favorites a lot or are laying more points than they should be this year. They’re 9-12 ATS but have been wildly inconsistent and usually just terrible, especially away from home against other power conference teams. North Carolina is 2-6 in such games outright losing by an average of 18 points per game.
This team has talent on paper but lack toughness and leadership which is evident away from the Dean Dome.
Respect Marquette
Marquette had a 7 game winning streak snapped in their last outing but are 14-8 ATS on the season and oddsmakers have undervalued them, particularly in league play. I expect that despite beating Villanova in the Pavilion two weeks ago, Marquette will be a home underdog when they play Wednesday. It’s Shaka Smart’s first year and his team has adopted the identity of his good VCU team’s of the past. It’s not havoc, but they’re tough, they play together, they defend and make shots. They lead the Big East in offense and defense Effective Field Goal Percentage. This league is tough but if they keep getting points especially at home take them.
Resilient Houston
The Cougars lost their two best players Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark to season ending injuries over a month ago and are still dominating teams. They’re 18-2 and 13-7 ATS. After the injuries, oddsmakers seemed to respond early and adjust some lines but Houston has continued to impress and rout a weak American Conference. Look at them ATS or with team total unders as their defense has remained outstanding, ranked 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.