Will Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, Duke’s Paolo Banchero or Auburn’s Jabari Smith hear their name called first when commissioner Adam Silver takes to the podium for June’s 2022 NBA draft? Or will it be someone else entirely?
Plenty of time and much debate are still to come as those questions are considered. Which NBA team is on the clock at No. 1 — a question we won’t have answered until the night of the NBA draft lottery on May 17 — could have much to say about the makeup of the top of the draft. But before that event occurs, there is still a great deal of basketball left to play, with the final two months of the 2021-22 college basketball season likely to elicit major movement, and the concurrent exploits of draft-eligible players from the NBA G League Ignite, Overtime Elite and overseas leagues all part of the tapestry that will shape the eventual selection order.
ESPN’s NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz are tasked with keeping it all straight. Givony’s latest 2022 NBA mock draft is below, and Givony and Schmitz also weigh in on a handful of players who have seen their stock rise in recent weeks.
Note: The projected 2022 draft order is based on ESPN BPI draft projections as of Monday. The full 1-58 order also reflects picks owed and owned.
Jonathan Givony’s NBA mock draft
Chet Holmgren | Gonzaga | PF | Age: 19.7
Paolo Banchero | Duke | PF/C | Age: 19.2
Jabari Smith | Auburn | SF/PF | Age: 18.7
Jalen Duren | Memphis | C | Age: 18.1
Jaden Ivey | Purdue | PG/SG | Age: 19.9
Keegan Murray | Iowa | PF/C | Age: 21.4
Shaedon Sharpe | Kentucky | SG | Age: 18.6
Johnny Davis | Wisconsin | PG/SG | Age: 19.9
TyTy Washington Jr. | Kentucky | PG/SG | Age: 20.1
10. Atlanta Hawks
Bennedict Mathurin | Arizona | SF | Age: 19.6
11. New York Knicks
A.J. Griffin | Duke | SF/PF | Age: 18.4
Ochai Agbaji | Kansas | SF | Age: 21.7
13. Memphis Grizzlies (from Lakers)
Jean Montero | Overtime Elite | PG/SG | Age: 18.5
14. Toronto Raptors
MarJon Beauchamp | G League Ignite | SG/SF | Age: 21.2
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers)
Patrick Baldwin Jr. | Milwaukee | SF/PF | Age: 19.1
Dyson Daniels | G League Ignite | PG/SG | Age: 18.8
17. Boston Celtics
Jaden Hardy | G League Ignite | SG | Age: 19.5
18. Chicago Bulls
Trevor Keels | Duke | PG/SG | Age: 18.4
19. Denver Nuggets
Kendall Brown | Baylor | SF | Age: 18.7
JD Davison | Alabama | PG | Age: 19.3
21. Houston Rockets (from Brooklyn)
Blake Wesley | Notre Dame | SG | Age: 18.8
22. Dallas Mavericks
Nikola Jovic | Mega Mozzart | SF | Age: 18.6
Mark Williams | Duke | C | Age: 20.1
E.J. Liddell | Ohio State | PF | Age: 21.1
25. Milwaukee Bucks
Kennedy Chandler | Tennessee | PG | Age: 19.3
26. Memphis Grizzlies
Ousmane Dieng | NZ Breakers | SF/PF | Age: 18.6
27. Memphis Grizzlies (from Utah)
Hugo Besson | NZ Breakers | PG/SG | Age: 20.7
28. Miami Heat
Wendell Moore Jr. | Duke | SF | Age: 20.3
Christian Braun | Kansas | SG/SF | Age: 20.7
30. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Phoenix)
Walker Kessler | Auburn | C | Age: 20.5
31. Orlando Magic
Bryce McGowens | Nebraska | SG | Age: 19.2
32. San Antonio Spurs (from Detroit)
Ismael Kamagate | Paris | C | Age: 21.0
33. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Houston)
Jeremy Sochan | Baylor | PF | Age: 18.6
34. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tari Eason | LSU | PF | Age: 20.7
35. Sacramento Kings
Christian Koloko | Arizona | C | Age: 21.5
36. Cleveland Cavaliers (from San Antonio)
Khalifa Diop | Gran Canaria | C | Age: 20.0
37. New Orleans Pelicans
Justin Lewis | Marquette | SF/PF | Age: 19.7
38. Orlando Magic (from Indiana)
Yannick Nzosa | Unicaja Malaga | C | Age: 18.1
39. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Cleveland via Washington)
Harrison Ingram | Stanford | SF/PF | Age: 19.1
40. Atlanta Hawks
Max Christie | Michigan State | SG | Age: 18.9
41. New York Knicks
Caleb Houstan | Michigan | SF | Age: 19.0
42. Portland Trail Blazers
Peyton Watson | UCLA | SF/PF | Age: 19.3
43. San Antonio Spurs (from Lakers)
Matteo Spagnolo | Cremona | PG | Age: 19.0
44. Golden State Warriors (from Toronto)
Allen Flanigan | Auburn | SF | Age: 20.7
45. LA Clippers
Trevion Williams | Purdue | C | Age: 21.3
46. Minnesota Timberwolves
Zach Edey | Purdue | C | Age: 19.7
47. Boston Celtics
Michael Foster | G League Ignite | PF | Age: 19.0
48. Sacramento Kings (from Chicago)
Trayce Jackson-Davis | Indiana | PF/C | Age: 21.9
49. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Denver)
Keon Ellis | Alabama | SG/SF | Age: 22.0
Drew Timme | Gonzaga | PF/C | Age: 21.3
51. Detroit Pistons (from Brooklyn)
Gabriele Procida | Fortitudo Bologna | SG | Age: 19.6
52. Dallas Mavericks
Andrew Nembhard | Gonzaga | PG | Age: 22.0
53. New Orleans Pelicans (from Cleveland)
Roko Prkacin | Cibona Zagreb | PF | Age: 19.1
54. Utah Jazz (from Memphis)
Julian Champagnie | St. John’s | SF/PF | Age: 20.5
55. New Orleans Pelicans (from Utah)
Dominick Barlow | Overtime Elite | PF/C | Age: 18.6
56. Indiana Pacers (from Miami)
Orlando Robinson | Fresno State | C | Age: 21.5
57. Golden State Warriors
Johnny Juzang | UCLA | SF | Age: 20.8
58. Phoenix Suns
Matthew Mayer | Baylor | SF/PF | Age: 22.3
*The Bucks and Heat forfeited their 2022 second-round picks for violating rules governing the timing of free-agency discussions.
TyTy Washington Jr. | 6-3 | PG | Age: 20.1 | Kentucky | No. 9
Washington has hit his stride in a major way after a slow start, making a case for not only SEC freshman of the year consideration, but also potentially conference player of the year honors. He broke John Wall‘s single-game assist record at Kentucky by dishing out 17 assists against Georgia on Jan. 8, and had his best game of the season in a blowout win over Tennessee last week, posting 28 points on just 13 shots to go along with 5 assists and 3 steals.
An unfortunately timed sprained ankle caused him to exit midway through the first half of Kentucky’s eventual loss at Auburn, but is not expected to keep Washington out of the lineup for long.
Coming off a disappointing year in which Kentucky registered the worst offensive efficiency of John Calipari’s head coaching career, the Wildcats have rebounded in a major way to rank among the very best offenses in college basketball. Washington has quite a bit to do with that, not only due to how efficiently he scores but also the poise he shows running a team and creating easy looks for teammates.
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Kentucky extends its lead over Texas A&M thanks to this jump shot by TyTy Washington .
A 40% 3-point shooter, Washington has one of the best in-between games in the country, ranking No. 1 among high-major players in accuracy for runners and floaters (59%) according to Synergy Sports Technology, and top-five in pull-up jumpers (46%). While not possessing blow-by speed, Washington gets to his spots thanks to strong ball-handling skills and an ability to change pace skillfully, decelerate in the lane and use his size and strong frame to create space, while never looking sped-up.
Washington’s passing has equally stood out, particularly operating out of pick-and-roll, where he again ranks as the most efficient player in college basketball, per Synergy. He uses both sides of the floor, finds secondary cutters along the baseline and is just as adept at throwing lobs over the top as he is hitting the roller in stride with well-timed pocket passes, or the pop-man over the shoulder for an open jumper. Few players in the college game play with the pace he does, and the way he simplifies the game and takes what defenders give him is rare for a freshman and gives him a high floor as an NBA guard.
Washington’s defense, once considered a major weakness, is starting to come around too. What makes him special offensively — how relaxed and calm he is — tended to work against him on the other end, where his intensity level often left something to be desired, particularly off the ball. He is increasingly showing terrific instincts digging down for steals, is doing a better job getting over screens and recovering to get back in plays and is learning to use his size and frame more effectively to make things difficult on opponents, something that will likely continue to evolve moving forward.
Washington’s outstanding play has moved him firmly into our top 10 and gives him a chance to be the first guard picked on draft night after Jaden Ivey. NBA scouts say they still have some question marks about just how much star power he has to offer and what the extent of his long-term upside is due to his age (20, older than sophomores Ivey and Johnny Davis) and average explosiveness, but his game and especially his size and versatility as a passer and scorer who can play either guard spot is undoubtedly tailor-made for the modern NBA.
— Givony
Ochai Agbaji | 6-6 | SF | Age: 21.7 | Kansas | No. 12
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Ochai Agbaji splashes a clutch 3-pointer in overtime for Kansas against Texas Tech.
Following in the footsteps of upperclassmen such as Chris Duarte, Corey Kispert and Davion Mitchell last year, Agbaji is using his senior season to propel himself into lottery conversations with a first-team All-America-caliber campaign.
Agbaji initially entered the 2021 draft but elected to return to Kansas after an underwhelming showing at the NBA Combine that left him no guarantees he’d hear his name called.
He’s since developed into a national player of the year candidate, establishing himself as arguably the best shooter in college basketball (62-for-132, 47% from 3) while leading Kansas to a top-5 ranking and 16-2 record.
While Agbaji started previous seasons hot, then cooled off significantly once Big 12 play rolled around, he only seems to be getting better as the 2021-22 season moves on. He comes off a career-high 37-point effort in a double-overtime win over Texas Tech, a top-five defense per KenPom. He’s been just as efficient against top-tier competition as he has against low-level opponents, a great sign for the Jayhawks as they prepare for a huge week that includes two top-10 opponents in Kentucky (Saturday, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN) and Baylor.
Agbaji is physically ideal for an NBA wing, measuring 6-foot-6, 215 pounds with a 6-foot-10 wingspan and a 42-inch vertical leap. He’s turned himself into one of the most dynamic shooters in the draft, regularly pulling up off the dribble in transition, setting his feet quickly while ducking behind handoffs and showing deep range and zero hesitation stepping into open 3s with his feet set, either on the hop or the 1-2 step. Agbaji’s inconsistent free-throw shooting (69% this season and for his college career) leave some question marks about how sustainable his scorching shooting is, but the confidence he’s exuding at the moment, especially in clutch situations, and the level of difficulty of attempts is hard to argue with.
While not an advanced ball-handler or passer, Agbaji has been highly efficient operating inside the arc as well, converting 58% of his 2-pointers and turning the ball over on a miniscule 8.5% of his possessions. He makes just enough plays handling in transition, attacking closeouts with his head up and using his strong frame to draw fouls and play above the rim to not be labeled strictly a shooter. He still has work to do on his skill level, but the progress Agbaji has made over the past few years has been remarkable.
The defensive end is where Agbaji initially established himself as an NBA prospect, which makes sense considering his build and ability to slide between checking guards, wings and big men in undersized Kansas’ switch-heavy system. He’s been inconsistent in that area this season, which is partially explained by the heavy minutes and usage he’s asked to shoulder offensively. Agbaji is very effective defensively in 1-on-1 situations and makes spectacular plays at times when rotating from the weakside to protect the rim, but does lack a degree of awareness and reaction speed in processing things happening off the ball at times. He’s prone to biting on shot-fakes and getting back-cut and is not the rebounder you might expect considering his tools.
Agbaji has positioned himself to be the first upperclassman hearing his name called on draft night and fits a mold NBA teams are looking for as a prolific shooting wing who guards multiple positions and can do a little more than just make open shots offensively. How he finishes will be important, but it’s increasingly difficult to overlook the spectacular season Agbaji is having.
— Givony
Kennedy Chandler | 6-1 | PG | Age: 19.3 | Tennessee | No. 25
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Kennedy Chandler slips between defenders to drop a nice bounce pass to Uros Plavsic, who leaves the hoop shaking after a big dunk.
Chandler has had a roller coaster of a freshman year, coming up flat in some of Tennessee’s biggest games this season while showing significant potential in others. Opinions on how to view him as an NBA prospect vary drastically from team to team and scout to scout, which may be partially due to the Vols’ extremely difficult schedule. No team has played tougher defenses thus far according to KenPom, which has surely provided for a difficult learning curve for the skinny 19-year=old point guard.
At his best, Chandler is clearly one of the most talented point guards in the college game, blessed with incredible speed and burst, shifty ball-handling ability, terrific creativity as a finisher and passer and flashes of real shot-making ability. His quickness, basketball instincts and length are evidenced by the way he gets in passing lanes, averaging more steals than any player in the final ESPN 100 for 2021.
With that said, he’s looked surprisingly tentative for big parts of the season, passing up open looks regularly, appearing reluctant to use his speed to his advantage, struggling from the free-throw line and looking too often to the sidelines for guidance instead of playing off his outstanding instincts. Some of that may be due to the rigid system he plays in, where he’s mostly surrounded by non-shooters in traditional lineups with multiple big men. That doesn’t explain why Chandler, a career 80% free-throw shooter entering college (on a healthy sample size) is making just 60% of his attempts at the stripe this season, though.
Scouts will hope to see Chandler’s confidence grow as the year moves on and he hopefully finds a little more swagger and on-court personality to match his terrific talent — sometimes it takes longer for freshman guards to find their footing. Questions already exist about Chandler’s size (measured 5-foot-11 barefoot), thin frame and his struggles shooting off the dribble, leaving teams to ponder whether he projects as a solid backup or if he can evolve into more than that as his NBA career progresses.
With 11 SEC games still left to play, along with the SEC and NCAA tournaments, there’s quite a bit of time left for Chandler to show growth, especially with many of the team’s toughest games already in the rearview.
— Givony
Christian Braun | 6-6 | SG/SF | Age: 20.7 | Kansas | No. 29
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Kansas’ Christian Braun knocks down a 3-pointer that gives the Jayhawks the lead with 10.9 seconds left.
Like his Kansas teammate Agbaji, Braun has also taken a major step forward as an upperclassman, becoming one of the most versatile wing players in college basketball and a bona fide first-round candidate.
It’s easy to envision Braun on an NBA floor when looking at his strong size, build and explosiveness. He’s had several memorable dunks this season and ranks as the No. 1 shot-blocker in this draft class among guards and wing prospects. He’s also tasked with considerable playmaking responsibility for a team that lacks great shot creation, serving as the Jayhawks’ best post-entry passer and lob-thrower and showing quite a bit of creativity attacking closeouts with his head up and whipping passes off a live dribble with either hand.
Defensively, Braun shows real toughness holding his ground in the paint, crashing the glass and locking up guards and wings on the perimeter in 1-on-1 situations. He’s always in the right spots off the ball, fights over screens aggressively, gets in passing lanes frequently and just forced potential draft pick Terrence Shannon Jr., (Texas Tech) to one of the worst games of his college career.
While fairly efficient as a scorer (61% true shooting percentage on the season), Braun’s offensive struggles in Big 12 play (50% TS%) have been a bit concerning after his red-hot start. It appears he’s nowhere near the 3-point shooter his freshman season (46% from 3) suggested, making just 33% of his attempts from beyond the arc in the past season-and-a-half, something that is clearly his swing skill at the NBA level. Braun’s excellent free throw percentage (81% this season, 79% for career) and the general touch he shows around the basket is encouraging, but he passes up more open looks than you’d expect and doesn’t have as quick a release or ability to make pullup jumpers as you might hope.
Finding more consistency in this area would make Braun the type of plug-and-play all-around wing every NBA team is looking for, and how he finishes the year and performs in the pre-draft process (if he elects to declare) will be important. His competitiveness, swagger and fiery demeanor has earned him a lot of fans in NBA circles regardless, and it’s likely a matter of when he’ll find himself in an NBA uniform, not if.
— Givony
Mike Schmitz spent 10 days in Europe evaluating some of the top international prospects both for this draft and the future, as we outlined in the latest 2023 mock draft. What did he learn about the international prospects eligible for the 2022 NBA draft?
Nikola Jovic: The top international prospect?
Although this international class doesn’t have an elite passer (Josh Giddey) or a low-post savant (Alperen Sengun), there are still several prospects bound to develop into productive NBA players. None of them intrigue me quite like Serbian forward Nikola Jovic (No. 22 in Givony’s latest mock), who has as good a chance as any to be the first international prospect to hear his name called on draft night. Due to COVID-19 cancellations in the Adriatic League, we weren’t able to see Jovic play in a game like originally planned for Mega Mozzart in Serbia. But we did see him practice with the team and conducted a 30-minute film session with the 18-year-old after diving deep into his game tape, continuing to build our scouting file on him that began in 2019.
Of all the international prospects in this draft, Jovic has the most seamless NBA fit as a modern forward who can shoot, handle and pass. Every bit of 6-10 with an improved 215-pound frame and a 7-0 wingspan, Jovic’s measurements are similar to forwards ranging from Michael Porter Jr. to Kevin Knox to Sam Dekker to Darius Bazley. With the size to function as a four once his body matures, the late-blooming Jovic looks the part of a legitimate NBA floor-spacer with the shooting stroke to back it up, as he’s now up to 40% from the international line through 14 games, often earning comparisons to Nemanja Bjelica (drafted No. 35 in 2010) in the process.
But what makes Jovic a bit more intriguing than your typical catch-and-shoot forward is the potential he shows off the dribble, regularly bringing the ball up the floor for Mega Mozzart, displaying sharp pick-and-roll vision going to his right while also knocking down several deep hesitation pull-up 3s with bigs switched onto him. His high center of gravity with the ball and finishing struggles in traffic (46% at the rim) limit him as a primary shot creator. And teams have also found quite a bit of success just defending him with small guards and daring him to punish that mismatch on the low block, which he hasn’t done with much success. But because Jovic can make hesitation and step-back 3s, find his teammates on the move when willing and occasionally drop in Dirk-like fallaways from inside the arc, it’s not out of the question that, in time, he can eventually evolve into a Danilo Gallinari-style second or third creator who can function as a big wing or a mismatch four.
To earn those reps, Jovic will have to improve drastically on defense, as he’s a bit too upright to consistently stay with perimeter players yet not quite physical enough to bang with true bigs on the interior. Evolving his off-ball defense and stabilizing his often-fluctuating motor will really help him win the margins, as he’s likely never going to quite have the range or flexibility to be a 1-on-1 stopper. He has shown signs of growth lately, bodying up forwards like Rodions Kurucs on penetration and using his positional length to change shots in the paint. After a slow start to the season, Jovic has turned into a valuable player for Mega, scoring 14 points and dishing out 4 assists in just 22 minutes in a huge upset win over Partizan, showcasing character and fight in the road win with a much younger, undermanned team. Although he was off for a month due to COVID and an ankle injury, Jovic has now reached double figures scoring in each of his last six games. He’s made at least two 3s in eight consecutive contests, shooting 18-for-42 from 3 (43%) during that stretch.
Great showing from projected 1st rounder Nikola Jovic in his 1st game since Dec 19, scoring 14 PTS + handing out 4 AST in a huge road win over Partizan. Gutsy performance from the 18-year-old on a Mega team missing several players. Scoochie Smith game-winner. Fun one in Belgrade. pic.twitter.com/kA3oPJgSQy
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) January 20, 2022
Displaying outright horrible body language at times during the U19 World Championships last summer and not always managing his emotions in the best way in other events, the 18-year-old Jovic is starting to show more signs of maturity both in his game and demeanor, which will play a big role in the type of NBA player he can become.
“I want to be consistent through the second half of the season,” Jovic said of his goals for the season, and five years down the line. “The thing I’m trying to accomplish is go to the NBA … stretch-4 with a lot of dribbling. I don’t know, we’ll see, I hope All-Star.” — Mike Schmitz
Ismael Kamagate: The most talented international big man
French center Ismael Kamagate (No. 32) has quickly emerged as the top international big man prospect in this 2022 class, opening eyes with his Jarrett Allen-like poster dunks and flashes of skill. After seeing Kamagate practice and conducting a film session with him our last time abroad in October, we were able to watch the 6-11, 21-year-old play a France Pro A (first division) game against the top team in the league, Levallois, which also competes in the EuroCup.
Footage of Ismael Kamagate’s pregame workout yesterday in Paris. The 20-year-old French center has a lot of the ingredients you look for in a young big man prospect. pic.twitter.com/x9A0dPctmM
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) January 16, 2022
Watching Kamagate go through an individual workout pre-game, it’s easy to see the long-term intrigue given his huge hands, massive reach, ability to handle the ball and natural touch, splashing step-back mid-range jumpers with ease. He looks like he’s dunking on a Nerf hoop in warmups, which he also translated to live action with a poster dunk in the second half. Kamagate has dunked on several players over several victims this season, and is one of the draft’s best finishers, converting 72.4% of his shots at the rim. He’s a jet in the open court when he decides to run hard, and in addition to the rim runs and hard rolls, he’s also comfortable using touch shots or creating off the bounce in short roll situations.
After battling foul trouble in the first half, Ismael Kamagate gave us this poster dunk in the 3rd quarter. His big reach, soft hands and touch around the basket along with his mobility gives him excellent potential as a finisher. pic.twitter.com/JZl5hOzFXC
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) January 15, 2022
As has been the case at times throughout his career, however, Kamagate struggled with early foul trouble against Levallois. He’s still very much learning how to defend pick-and-roll effectively and isn’t the forceful rim protector that his reach and bounce suggest. Too often lost off the ball and not the most physical defensive rebounder, Kamagate is a couple years away from being able to consistently impact a game defensively at the NBA level, even though he’s blocking 2.4 shots per 40 minutes and is relatively quick off the floor for his size.
With that said, the fact that Kamagate shows more flashes of skill than the majority of run-and-jump style bigs is what makes him the most intriguing international big man in this class. Despite often playing without a true point guard and alongside more traditional bigs, Kamagate has made a handful of eye-opening passes this season, firing overhead skips to the corner out of the short roll, hitting cutters with one-handed passes, or locating weakside shooters off a live dribble out of the post. He’s starting to take more mid-range jumpers also, and, although flat, his stroke has potential (70% from the free-throw line). A true late-bloomer who wasn’t even considered for youth national teams not too long ago, Kamagate’s growth rate is staggering, and his capacity to learn is noteworthy, despite being older than several of the bigs ranked behind him.
Kamagate might not be a carbon copy of Allen or Clint Capela like his go-go-gadget dunks suggest, but there’s a clear archetype for some of the things he does well (see Daniel Gafford, Richaun Holmes) and because he can handle, pass and maybe shoot down the line, it’s hard to get a perfect gauge on what exactly his upside might be. I’d expect Kamagate to start picking up more steam among scouting circles, getting real looks toward the end of the first round come June. — Schmitz
Matteo Spagnolo: The best international playmaker
Few international prospects have improved their respective draft stock more than 19-year-old Italian Matteo Spagnolo (No. 43), who is in the midst of a breakout season with Cremona in the Italian first division and is in the running for the best European lead guard in this class. On loan from Spanish powerhouse Real Madrid, Spagnolo is one of only five teenagers in all of high-level Europe playing at least 25 minutes per game, leading that group in scoring (12.0 PPG) and 3-point percentage (48.6%). We evaluated Spagnolo during a home game against Sassari and conducted an hour-long film session with him after, getting a better feel for how he sees the game and his approach, which coaches and evaluators have long raved about.
Made it to Cremona to get eyes on 18-year-old Italian PG Matteo Spagnolo. The 6-5 Real Madrid product is in the midst of a breakout season on loan in the Italian League: 11.2 PTS, 3.2 REBS, and 2.3 AST in 25.3 MIN while shooting 47% from 2 and 50% from 3 in 10 games as a starter. pic.twitter.com/usaQkYMEnN
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) January 9, 2022
In his first real professional season, Spagnolo has dazzled with his off-the-dribble shooting, creativity in pick-and-roll and flashes of ball screen brilliance. More comfortable with his patented crossover, mid-range pull-up than long-range 3s coming into this season, Spagnolo is starting to knock down step-back triples with more regularity, even pulling from NBA range with teams darting under screens. Calm and even keel on the floor, he’s able to use his 6-5, 198-pound frame to keep his defender on his hip before making an off-the-dribble pass to an open teammate or re-accelerating to the rim into a finesse finish. Although more wired to score than facilitate, he snakes ball screens like a veteran, crediting hours studying guards such as Luka Doncic, Milos Teodosic and Trae Young, while picking up little things from practicing with Facundo Campazzo during his time in Madrid. Like many of the aforementioned guards, he’s not afraid to try and fit passes into tight windows or take big shots down the stretch of important games, which have been key traits for successful international guards before him.
Italy isn’t known as the most athletic league, however, and Spagnolo’s finishing struggles (46% at the rim) and lack of blow-by speed figure to be even more pronounced as the level of competition rises. Cremona is also toward the bottom of the Italian League standings, fighting to avoid relegation to the second division, so his production does come with a caveat. Spagnolo has a long way to go on the defensive end of the floor, as he doesn’t always play with the necessary energy and discipline to overcome his average foot speed and limited overall range, both on and off the ball.
But, like we saw with Lithuanian guard Rokas Jokubaitis last draft (No. 34 to the New York Knicks), there’s clear draft-and-stash value in an international guard with positional size, shooting touch, creativity, feel and confidence. With Spagnolo under contract with Real Madrid for two additional seasons, whoever drafts him wouldn’t have to use a roster spot on the Brindisi native until he’s almost 22 years old, giving him the time and in-game reps to continue improving as a defender, finisher, and spot-up shooter (he’s made only three catch-and-shoot jumpers all season). Should Spagnolo make a run at the NBA as a 21-year-old, there’s a better chance he’d be able to have an Austin Reaves type of impact as a rookie.
Spagnolo — an Italian national team mainstay — has firmly planted himself on the NBA radar this season, and will remain a player team executives study closely as he continues to produce in Italy. — Schmitz