There weren’t many programs in the country hotter than Michigan as the 2021-22 college basketball season began. The Wolverines were coming off a season in which they won the Big Ten regular-season title, came within a basket of the Final Four and Juwan Howard — who was coming off winning the national coach of the year award last season — had signed the No. 1 recruiting class in the country.
A little over two months into the season, things have unraveled. Michigan, which entered the season ranked No. 6 in the country, has dropped completely out of the top 25 and sits at just 7-6 after losing three of its past four games. The Wolverines have one win over a team ranked inside the top 120 of the NET, and four losses by double digits.
Perhaps the only reason Michigan’s record isn’t worse is the Wolverines went on pause due to COVID-19 issues and saw their home game against No. 10 Michigan State and road trip to No. 7 Purdue postponed this past week. Their next scheduled game is at No. 25 Illinois on Friday, when dropping to .500 overall is very much a possibility.
But the pause might also have come at a good time for Michigan. Can the Wolverines come out of their break ready to turn things around?
We asked opposing coaches how Michigan has changed from last season, where the Wolverines are particularly struggling and whether they can rescue a season that appears to be slipping away.
Personnel losses, offensive issues
While Michigan entered the campaign as the consensus Big Ten favorite, the Wolverines needed to overcome a slew of departures from last season’s No. 1-seed. Franz Wagner was picked No. 8 overall in the NBA draft, while Isaiah Livers was selected in the second round. Other key figures from last season’s group included Chaundee Brown, who has played with the NBA’s Los Angeles Lakers and Atlanta Hawks this season; Mike Smith, who is playing in the G League; and Austin Davis, who is playing professionally in Poland.
That’s three players who started every game when they were healthy, the team’s sixth man and a backup big who started five games. As one veteran Big Ten coach succinctly responded when asked why Michigan has struggled thus far: “That’s easy. They simply lost five pros.”
To compensate, role players were elevated in the rotation, while five-star recruits Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate were expected to make an impact quickly. Howard dipped into the transfer portal for a point guard, coming out with DeVante’ Jones (Coastal Carolina).
The pieces haven’t quite fit so far. The Wolverines haven’t had the same production and consistency from the point guard spot vacated by Smith; Houstan hasn’t been overly dynamic offensively; Diabate has brought energy and rebounding, but not the same perimeter threat; and last year’s complementary parts haven’t filled the old shoes as effectively.
“They play very similar,” one opposing coach said of the Michigan scheme. “They’re very organized, they run a lot of sets. But those sets were very effective when they had four guys on the perimeter who were all dangerous, could all make plays. You had Franz Wagner, a lottery pick, playing the 4. The spacing was really good. Look at the team this year, they’re playing a 4 [Diabate] who can’t make a shot and can’t make plays. A 3 [Houstan] who can potentially make shots but he can’t make plays. All those plays and sets became very ordinary. There’s a clear blueprint to beat them. You get them out of what they do. You can get them out of their plays. They run good plays, but you don’t really have to guard [everyone].”
The lack of spacing and shooting due to the personnel changes was mentioned by multiple coaches. After ranking 13th nationally in 3-point percentage last season, at better than 38%, the Wolverines are middle of the road nationally at 34.0%.
“Looking at their numbers in Big Ten play, Moussa Diabate has made one 3 and [senior holdover] Brandon Johns [Jr.] has made two. So at the power forward spot, they’re making one 3 a game in Big Ten play,” another coach said. “When you don’t have to [guard] the 4 man, you can shrink the court and cut off driving lanes. That’s part of Michigan’s issues. If they make one [3-pointer], so be it. You don’t see them as capable of making five or six.”
When Michigan was at its peak last season, much of the Wolverines’ offensive success came not only from clean sets, but from a slew of shooters and playmakers who could create something if a play broke down. Smith, Livers and Brown all shot around 42-43% from 3-point range and Wagner was a matchup nightmare for most opponents.
Hunter Dickinson was one of the nation’s best freshmen last season and his offensive numbers are equal or better across the board this season, but instead of being the third name on an opposition scouting report, he’s at the top of the list — and he hasn’t received the help he did last season.
“Last year, he was an efficient player on an efficient team. This year, he’s an efficient player, but you can’t give him the ball to create offense. It’s hard to go through those players when they’re your best player,” one coach said. “Once you take them out of what they run, who on their team is going to create a basket for them? And I don’t know the answer.”
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Hunter Dickinson notches a layup, 3-pointer and dunk for Michigan in the first three possessions.
One coach harkened back to Michigan’s mid-November game against Seton Hall, when the Wolverines were relying on senior guard Eli Brooks to make plays late in crunch time. Brooks has been a consistent piece for Michigan for his entire career, but go-to-guy seems like a step too far.
“Brooks is a winner and knows the system, but you can’t ask him to lead the team offensively,” he said. “He’s been around the block, he’s been to a Final Four. He’s going to take and make big shots for him. He’s got [courage]. But the other guys are unproven.”
One player who was expected to help shoulder some of the offensive responsibilities was Houstan, the No. 8-ranked prospect in the 2021 class. He reclassified up from 2022 and was a projected lottery pick entering the season. Houstan was terrific for the Canada U19 team at the FIBA U19 World Championships last summer, averaging 17.0 points and 5.7 rebounds and creating buzz for his freshman season in Ann Arbor.
It hasn’t happened consistently for Houstan so far this season, however. He opened the campaign with double-figure scoring efforts against Buffalo and Prairie View A&M, but he has scored in single digits in seven of the past 11 games and is shooting 43.5% from 2 and 31.2% from 3 on the season.
“I think he’s a guy where a lot of the hype is what he’s going to be four or five years from now,” one opposing coach said. “[He is] 6-foot-8, he can shoot. But he reclassified, so he should be playing against IMG [Academy] and Sunrise [Christian Academy] now, not a Big Ten schedule. There’s a lot of expectations placed on a kid like that. He’s a few years away from physically getting there. He’s a high-level shooter for his size, but you take that away …”
The point guard situation
Mike Smith was the exception, not the norm.
The grad transfer arrived in Ann Arbor before last season after averaging nearly 23 points per game during his final season at Columbia but he completely adjusted his game to better suit what Howard needed for the Wolverines. Smith’s scoring dropped from 22.8 points as an Ivy Leaguer to 9.0 points, but his assists went up, his turnovers went down and he shot nearly 42% from 3-point range.
Howard hoped to replicate that this season with Coastal Carolina transfer Jones, the Sun Belt player of the year in 2020-21. While Jones hasn’t come close to repeating his 19.3 points per game from last season, he hasn’t been bad — just inconsistent. On the season, he’s averaging 7.5 points and 3.8 assists while shooting 45.8% from 3-point range, but in three Big Ten games, those numbers drop to 5.7 points and 14.3% on 3-point shooting.
“The biggest difference is a lot of people assumed Jones would fill in where the kid from Columbia did,” one opposing coach said. “For every kid that transfers up, out of 10, there’s nine kids that just don’t have the same kind of success. I thought Smith was really good at setting the tone, he could make a big 3 when they needed it. Jones is solid, but he’s not someone you’re overly worried about.”
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Hunter Dickinson connects with DeVante’ Jones on the full-court pass for the easy layup.
Jones was actually playing some of his best basketball before the pause, averaging 14.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists — while shooting 58.3% from 3 — during a three-game stretch leading into the loss at Rutgers on Jan. 4.
And one opposing coach pointed out that some of Jones’ early-season struggles tie directly to the aforementioned lack of spacing and shooting in Michigan’s frontcourt.
“It’s hard for them to create pick-and-roll advantages, because you’re not guarding the 4 man,” he said. “It’s easy to point fingers at Jones, but last year you had Wagner [rolling or popping] and you couldn’t help.”
For Michigan to turn its season around, though, Jones becoming consistent and finding his form from last season — or even from the three-game stretch in late December — is imperative.
“The bottom line for them is they hit big on transfers last year and haven’t had the same production this year, which hurts,” one Big Ten coach said. “Point guard play last year was huge. That ingredient is missing.”
What’s behind the defensive drop-off?
Michigan has been one of the elite defensive teams in college basketball for most of the past four seasons. In John Beilein’s final two seasons, the Wolverines ranked No. 3 and No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom. Former assistant Luke Yaklich, now the head coach at UIC, was widely credited for the defensive strength but it carried over when Howard took charge in Ann Arbor, with Michigan ranking No. 28 in 2020 and No. 4 nationally last season.
That ranking is down at No. 49 this year, with Michigan allowing more than nine more points per 100 possessions in Big Ten play. The Wolverines’ most noticeable difference at that end of the floor is their inability to stop opposing teams inside the arc. Opponents are shooting better than 48% on 2-pointers this season after making less than 43% of their attempts last season.
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Cristian Koloko rises and stuffs home the alley-oop over Michigan.
Multiple coaches said Michigan’s ball-screen defense is the biggest area of concern. Dickinson isn’t elite in ball-screen coverage and guys like Houstan and Johns don’t offer the same length, skills or ability to switch that Michigan’s forwards did last season.
“Two years ago, [Jon] Teske would drop to protect the rim. Guards were fighting through screens, their bigs were dropping,” one coach said. “This year, they’re coming very high on ball screens, the 5 man is coming high. If you ask me for a difference, that’s the one. Maybe it’s because Teske was an elite rim protector.”
It comes down to individual defense, too. Wagner was considered one of the best defensive players in the country last season; multiple coaches considered Livers an underrated piece of Michigan’s defense; Brooks is a terrific defender; and Smith was capable of providing pressure at the point. It allowed Dickinson to wall up in the paint and not have to chase players away from the rim. Only Brooks and Dickinson are back from that group.
“They’re well-coached, but they don’t have a bunch of elite on-ball defenders, shot-blockers, guys jumping in passing lanes,” one coach said.
Another reason for the drop-off could simply come from a lack of cohesion at that end of the floor. Houstan, Diabate, Jones and Kobe Bufkin are all guys who weren’t in the program last season and are now playing roles, while Terrance Williams went from spot minutes to a key rotation member.
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Justin Kier throws the alley-oop to Dalen Terry to pad Arizona’s lead over Michigan.
It takes time and experience for elite defenses to come together.
“They have had to rely on a lot less experience this year, with highly talented freshmen, and whenever you have to rely on freshmen, it will be a lot more chaotic,” a Big Ten coach said. “They’ll still win games, but they’re not going to ride the wave they had going.”
Can it be fixed?
The COVID pause is the big variable in Michigan’s season moving forward. Had the Wolverines not postponed their past two games, coming off less-than-impressive performances in road losses to UCF and Rutgers, a 7-9 start wasn’t out of the question. At that point, a disappointing season might have been assured.
But by the time Michigan takes the floor again, it will be at least 10 days removed from its most recent game, which might have given the team time to tweak things.
There are some clear issues that aren’t going away — inconsistent shooting and playmaking, ball-screen defense — but there’s also enough talent and experience to turn things around. Dickinson is still a dominant force inside and Brooks is a solid option on the perimeter, so much of the season will come down to whether Houstan and Diabate can become impact players moving forward.
“Defensively, they can get better. There is upside there. They have a good coaching staff and Howard has been great the last two years. He hasn’t forgotten how to coach in four months,” one opposing coach said. “Those freshmen were just not as good as they thought. They could stay one more year and suddenly this becomes a really good team with experienced guys who understand their role. They just haven’t figured it out yet. But it can happen.”