Following an 82-79 loss at Georgia on Dec. 1, Memphis coach Penny Hardaway compared his group to an AAU team.
“I’m really gutted from looking at this,” he told reporters. “We look like an AAU team. It looks really bad, and I don’t really understand what these guys are thinking.”
Three days later, following a 67-63 loss at Ole Miss, Hardaway said the vibe in the Memphis locker room has been “miserable.”
“We’ve got so much negativity in our locker room with veterans being jealous,” Hardaway told The Athletic.
If the results raised eyebrows, the quotes sent the college basketball world into overdrive. The tweets and texts all had a similar theme to them: What the heck is going on at Memphis? Who’s at fault? Can it be fixed? Is everyone overreacting?
It’s only Dec. 9, but Memphis’ season is already at a crossroads. After being ranked No. 12 to start the season, the Tigers are an unranked 5-3, on a three-game losing streak and have games against Murray State, Alabama and Tennessee in the next week and a half. By the end of that stretch, this discussion could feel irrelevant, prescient or something in between.
To get a handle on what’s happening with the Tigers, we spoke to a handful of opposing coaches and NBA scouts.
The offense is a mess
Memphis brought back three starters from last season’s NIT champion, and added two top-five recruits and a couple of impact players from the transfer portal. It stood to reason the Tigers’ offense would improve just by having more talented scorers on the floor.
That hasn’t happened. Memphis has scored fewer than one point per possession in four of its past five games, it ranks near the bottom of the national rankings in turnover percentage and the Tigers are not getting enough production from the perimeter.
“They just turn it over so much,” one opposing coach said. “Last year I thought they were disciplined, they were well-oiled, they knew where the ball was going. They ran clean sets, those kids cut and moved really, really hard. This year it’s back to being more free-flowing.”
“Guys are trying to make plays for themselves,” another coach added. “Just trying to score the ball. They don’t really screen or cut or reverse the ball. They try to play one-on-one.”
Part of the issue is the lack of a point guard. When Emoni Bates committed to Memphis late in the summer, it was apparent the Tigers sold him on becoming the next Penny Hardaway — a playmaker with size who could also score on his own. The expectation was that Bates was going to be the team’s primary point guard. One month into the season, there have been significant growing pains. Bates has one assist and eight turnovers in his past four games.
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Memphis freshman Emoni Bates burns an NC Central defender to throw down a powerful dunk.
Aggravating that problem is the lack of anyone else to consistently take the pressure off Bates, both from a point guard and shooting perspective. Veterans Alex Lomax and Tyler Harris have shown flashes of being able to run the show, but they’re inconsistent. And Bates is the only player on the team to make more than nine 3-pointers this season.
“I don’t think Lomax or Tyler Harris is a point guard, and Bates is a wing. They have no point guard,” one opposing coach said. “Just because they’re 5-foot-9 and 5-foot-10 doesn’t make them point guards. They don’t have anybody that can play for a teammate. Or nobody that tries to.”
There were a couple of related observations from a college coach and an NBA scout. The coach said Memphis likely spent most of the spring and summer working on an offense — and then that went out the window when Bates and Jalen Duren joined the team in August. Adding to that, the scout mentioned that it looked like the Tigers were looking to install a very NBA-esque offense back in October.
“They’ve scrapped the whole thing. They’re not running any of that stuff,” he said. “I don’t know what they’re running now. It’s completely unclear what the offense is.”
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Jalen Duren meets Keve Aluma at the rim with a massive Memphis block.
The defense isn’t creating as much as last season
Memphis ranked No. 1 in the country last season in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom. The Tigers are extremely aggressive at that end of the floor, looking to force turnovers and constantly disrupt the opposition. And that hasn’t changed. Memphis can overwhelm teams at times with its length, physical ability, depth and aggressiveness.
But there are some negatives. One, the Tigers tend to commit fouls at an obscene rate and this year, they rank in the bottom 20 nationally in defensive free throw rate. They’re just giving opponents too many free chances. Two, once a team beats the pressure, they’re getting open shots, especially from behind the arc. And finally, they’ve forced a below-average number of turnovers over their past four games.
“They’re exceptional at turning people over, and they have great length at the rim,” one opposing coach said. “We told our guys, when we break the pressure, quickly get into the offense and score the ball. Punish them and get them to question each other in the process. Use different attacks. We needed to attack them in transition against their press, so they couldn’t turn us over in the half court, and they didn’t have rim protection.”
One coach thinks the defense will improve as the season progresses.
“It’s hard to be a really, really good pressing team unless you’ve got really, really good chemistry,” he said. “When you press, there’s a randomness that makes it really hard to deal with, and that comes with chemistry.”
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Emoni Bates is looking the part so far vs. Tennessee Tech, nailing his second triple of the game.
The Bates/Duren Conundrum
Much of the preseason hype in Memphis centered on Bates and Duren, two elite high school recruits and projected top-five NBA draft picks. Both players were in the 2022 high school class but opted to reclassify in August and then committed to the Tigers.
Naturally, both players — particularly Bates, given the attention he garnered over his high school career — have been used as scapegoats for Memphis’ slow start.
Bates averaged 16.0 points on 57.7% shooting in his first three college games but is at 8.8 points on 28.8% shooting in his past five games.
ESPN NBA draft analyst Jonathan Givony broke down what he has seen from Bates though one month.
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Emoni Bates shows off his vision with nice dish vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
“[Bates’] numbers are actually pretty similar to high school. There’s just a lot less volume for him,” Givony said. “His true shooting percentage is 51%, which isn’t good. But in EYBL, it was 49%. He’s playing very similarly, but it’s much more difficult of a situation. They have zero shooting around him, that’s tough. But you have to keep reminding yourself, he’s only 17 years old. This is how a lot of 17-year-olds would look.
“I’ve been pleasantly surprised with how quick he’s adapted defensively. He was very much a negative at that end in AAU and high school, but he’s turned into this guy who just plays his tail off. He’s not easy to score on. Now, he’s got issues. He can be very naive, over-helping, gambling, he’s not strong enough to get over screens, he runs into screens. But I think he’s been pretty solid. Definitely in terms of effort. Plays really hard, has got some instincts.”
Duren was dominant early, averaging 15.0 points, 10.8 rebounds and 4.8 blocks in his first four games — numbers that have dropped to 5.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in his past four games.
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Jalen Duren gets the ball in transition and converts at the rim despite being fouled.
“It’s tough, because he’s not an offensive reference. He’s not going to save you offensively, he’s not a solution to the problem,” Givony said. “You’re not going to throw the ball to him and ask him to make plays with his back to the basket. He doesn’t know how to set screens right now, he’s not physical at all. That takes time to learn, learn how to play pick-and-roll, know to set at the right moment, know when to roll. He doesn’t know any of those things right now. And that makes sense, because he just turned 18 like three weeks ago.
“He’s dominant on the offensive glass, he’s [exceptional] defensively. He makes mistakes there too, but he can really switch. He’s a ridiculous shot-blocker sometimes. Even when he gets beat he can block a shot into the third row. In terms of movement, he’s absolutely special. I’m not as down on him [as Bates], because we knew going into the year he was a major project. But you can’t teach that size, length, body, mobility, hands. There’s only so many like that on this planet. Whether he goes fourth or he goes ninth [in the draft], he’s gonna go high.”
Nearly every coach and scout we spoke to for this piece thinks Bates and Duren are being unfairly scapegoated for Memphis’ early-season issues. And based on Hardaway’s quotes to The Athletic about his veterans, the blame is apparently being cast not just by outside observers but by other members of the Tigers’ team.
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Emoni Bates connects on a 3-pointer for Memphis with a hand in his face.
“You’re adding two new guys, and not just two new guys, but those guys should still be in high school. They’re not just new, they’re young,” one coach said. “They’re trying to win high, high-level games. You’re getting everyone’s absolute best effort, and these guys are six months removed from playing in the Peach Jam. Everyone’s expectations were a little unfair.”
Another coach who faced Memphis already this season thinks some of the things Bates and Duren need to work on will come with more time against college-level opponents. Right now, they’re relying on skill sets developed against inferior high school and AAU competition.
“With Emoni, how hard you have to play to win in college is a different level than what those guys have probably seen in the Peach Jam and all that other stuff,” he said. “People know your weaknesses, they’re playing the scouting report, guys aren’t letting you get what you want. With Duren, he has to understand he has to be a physical 5, high-motor rebounder and rim protector. Just a force at the rim. Double-figure rebounder. He probably shouldn’t touch the ball unless he’s about to dunk or lay it in. Bates has to be a willing passer and move without the ball. When he doesn’t have it, he stands.
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Emoni Bates knocks down the tough jumper over a couple defenders.
“For both guys, they’re young, they just don’t know how hard you have to play yet. People being critical of them isn’t fair yet. Every year the guys ranked 1-2-3, they’re not instantly going to be Kevin Durants. Some years those guys are instant-impact guys, some years they’re not.”
While both players looked like surefire top-five picks entering the season — ESPN’s 2022 top 100 in October had Duren at No. 4 and Bates as one of the best prospects in 2023 — the discourse around Bates’ and Duren’s draft stock is already changing. But should it? Duren is still No. 4 in ESPN’s 2022 rankings, and Bates is still 19 months from being able to enter the NBA draft.
Will being on a team in turmoil impact either player? Based on recent history, it won’t. Markelle Fultz was on a 9-22 team at Washington before being selected first overall in 2017, while Ben Simmons was part of an LSU team ranked in the preseason top 25 that missed the postseason entirely. Simmons, of course, was also drafted No. 1 overall in 2016.
“I really don’t think there’s much of a shadow on either of the two,” one NBA executive told me. “Duren won a ton in high school, and Bates doesn’t come off as the type of guy you can label as a loser. It’s more about how they impact the game and if they’re willing to battle through some adversity. How do they handle it all? Do they hang their heads? Do they become part of the problem? How are they with their teammates? That is more intangible, but I don’t really see it impacting their draft stock. Now, it would help if they were on a winner. Look at a guy like Jabari Smith. He found a nice spot for him and as Auburn climbs this year, his stock should only get stronger.”
Chemistry issues?
There are obvious chemistry problems within the Tigers’ team right now. And if that wasn’t clear from watching games, Hardaway brought it to the public following the Ole Miss game.
One coach in the AAC who has watched Memphis multiple times this season said that shouldn’t come as a surprise. Over the final two months of last season, the Tigers were playing as well as any team in the country. They went 10-2 from the start of February, with the only losses coming to eventual Final Four team Houston by a combined five points, and won the NIT in convincing fashion.
And how did that happen? Hardaway shortened his rotation to seven or eight guys and ran the offense mostly through versatile forward DeAndre Williams. That has flipped this season, with Memphis playing 11 or 12 guys most nights and going away from the Williams-centric offense.
“At the end of last year, he got his rotation air tight,” the coach said. “Boogie Ellis knew he was going to play 30 minutes a night. [Lester] Quinones knew he was going to play 30 minutes. [Landers] Nolley knew, DeAndre Williams knew. Right now, rotations are a little funky. Guys don’t know when their opportunities are coming. The veterans [from last season] were ready to roll as a team.
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Jalen Duren fights off the defender for the and-1
“Then you add two people that [the rest of the team] had no summer school with. Two guys that had a chance to take them to another level — or this happens. They were playing and practicing all summer, then when school starts, all that’s out the window because you’re trying to incorporate these two new guys. That takes some time. And now you kind of have to cater to them.”
As for Hardaway’s comments, they could galvanize the group or backfire. And we won’t know which way it turns until the Tigers get back on the court. But one coach who faced Memphis this season thinks Hardaway did the right thing in going public. On this occasion, at least.
“He’s played a lot of basketball and coached a lot of basketball, and I think he would know what he needs to motivate them and inspire them to play better,” he said. “Every team is different, but I believe in direct [communication]. If he believes those are the issues and he’s being transparent, I believe him. But then, what are you doing to solve the problems? We’re in the business of trying to solve them and find solutions. Your job as a coach is to solve them.”
Is it fixable?
That brings us to the biggest question for the Memphis program in 2021-22: What needs to change, and is it possible to fix the issues on the fly?
Most of the coaches and scouts we spoke with think some of the problems will be naturally fixed as the players get more time with one another, but the biggest thing will be getting back to the basics offensively. Simply taking care of the ball and getting good shots.
“And this is what Penny is kind of saying on the record. Guys aren’t running the offense,” one NBA evaluator said. “That’s what could change, if they start looking a little bit more organized, stop turning it over so much. A lot of these turnovers are just really silly mistakes. It looked like a team that met three days prior to the game [I watched]. If they develop some kind of structure and coherence as a basketball team, start figuring out how to play with each other and stop making so many silly mistakes. … It’s not easy to clean that up, but a lot of those turnovers are just throwing the ball away. Careless stuff.”
The roster isn’t the only area of the program that underwent massive changes during the offseason, either. Hardaway hired Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown as an assistant coach in early July and added longtime NBA veteran Rasheed Wallace to his staff in late August. Brown and Wallace replaced Tony Madlock, who was hired as the head coach at South Carolina State, and Jermaine Johnson, who was recently hired to another role in the Memphis athletic department.
Like player chemistry, staff chemistry takes time, especially when it comes to figuring out roles on the bench. From our vantage point near Memphis’ bench during the Virginia Tech game, Hardaway and assistant coach Cody Toppert handled most of the in-game instruction, but sources told ESPN that the entire staff is very involved during practice and Hardaway effectively delegates duties.
One coach thinks the conversation surrounding Memphis will look dramatically different by the time conference play heats up in a month or two. If the Tigers get back to how they were playing toward the end of last season, with the added dimension of Bates, Duren and Earl Timberlake, there’s still an awfully high ceiling for this group.
“They gotta get back to figuring out easy baskets. That might be more pressing. All the things they’re not very good at right now are fixable,” one coach said. “They’re not executing at a high level, that’s fixable. Their defensive rotations and their defensive identity, they’ll get better at as they get more and more familiar with each other. And they got some individual dudes that, one-on-one, in big moments, they’re going to be able to make plays and get baskets. That’s the scary part about those guys. They have guys that can beat good defenses. They’re just not right now. That doesn’t mean they won’t in six weeks.”
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Freshman Emoni Bates leads all scorers with 17 points as Memphis took care of Tennessee Tech 89-65.
It’s worth pointing out that Memphis had a similar sluggish start to last season. The Tigers lost two of their first three games in South Dakota, and were just 9-6 at the end of January. They flipped it toward the end of the season, becoming more efficient on the offensive end and really dialing it up defensively.
“By the end of every year, they’re really good defensively. They’re doing what they always do. This isn’t anything new for them,” one opposing coach said. “They always kind of have a couple rocky weeks in late November, early December. Then Christmas Break, they iron some things out and then by the time the middle of the conference rolls around, they’re a handful.”
The issue with that approach is that even though the Tigers were playing like a potential second-weekend NCAA tournament team in mid-March, they were barely even a bubble team on Selection Sunday.
That could be the case again this season, especially if Memphis loses to Alabama and Tennessee in the next two weeks. The AAC is just not good enough this season for the Tigers to stack quality, profile-enhancing wins.
As one coach asked, “By the time they’re really, really good, what does their résumé look like?”