It’s getting late early in the 2022 class. We’re still several weeks away from mid-November and the early signing period, but dominoes continue to fall with top-100 prospects flying off the board every week. In fact, we’re still in September and only 33 players in the ESPN 100 — and just eight five-star prospects — are still available.
The race for the No. 1 class is essentially down to two teams. Every top-five player is already committed. That’s highly unusual at this point in the cycle.
It doesn’t necessarily mean teams are scrambling to fill scholarship openings (especially with 1,500 or so transfers likely to enter the portal in a few months), but the contingency options and Plan Bs are dwindling for some of the bigger programs chasing top-50 players.
So what’s the latest on the top remaining prospects, potential marquee classes and other trends to keep an eye on in the senior class?
Here are the biggest unanswered questions left in 2022 — questions that might be answered a bit earlier than usual this fall.
1. Who ends up at No. 1, Duke or Kentucky?
Duke leapfrogged Kentucky for the No. 1 recruiting class in 2022 following the commitment of No. 2 overall prospect Dereck Lively, who chose the Blue Devils over the Wildcats earlier this month. Lively was the key battle between the two recruiting powerhouses in the 2022 class, and Duke edging out Kentucky for his commitment gives the Blue Devils the inside track to end up atop the rankings. Coach-in-waiting Jon Scheyer now has three top-10 prospects — Lively, Dariq Whitehead and Kyle Filipowski — as well as elite shooter Jaden Schutt. Kentucky sits at No. 2, but the Wildcats have overall No. 1 prospect Shaedon Sharpe, along with five-stars Chris Livingston and Skyy Clark.
Both programs have two priority targets left in 2022. Duke is going for top-30 prospects J.J. Starling and Mark Mitchell, while Kentucky is eyeing Cason Wallace and Adem Bona.
If Duke lands its top two guys and Kentucky lands its top two guys, who ends up at No. 1? Our database team ran the numbers … and Duke would be on top. With the way our formula weighs higher-ranked prospects, the Blue Devils landing three top-10 prospects gives them the edge.
Now, if Kentucky lands both Wallace and Bona and Duke only gets one of Starling or Mitchell, the Wildcats would retake the top spot.
2. Can anyone else compete for the top spot?
Probably not. Part of the reason is the lack of elite prospects still available in 2022. The top six players in the ESPN 100 are already committed, along with three other players in the top 12. Only nine of the top 25 prospects are still on the board — and Duke and Kentucky have already combined to land six of the top 16.
The better question might be which teams could push for the No. 3 spot, currently occupied by Kansas and its three ESPN 100 prospects — including two ranked in the top 25. The Jayhawks are certainly a threat, given who they already have in the fold and the fact they’re heavily involved with ESPN 100 prospects Jordan Walsh, Bona, Yohan Traore and Ernest Udeh.
UCLA has a top-five pledge in Amari Bailey, as well as borderline top-50 point guard Dylan Andrews. The Bruins are involved with five-star Bona, as well as Mitchell, Traore and Udeh. Crosstown rivals USC have the No. 7 class in the country and the Trojans recently hosted Julian Phillips and Bona.
Texas was as busy as any program in the country back in June when it came to getting prospects on campus for visits, and the Longhorns remain in the mix for Walsh, Dillon Mitchell, Jarace Walker and others. Arkansas recently entered the discussion, landing top uncommitted prospect Nick Smith Jr. on Wednesday. The Razorbacks now have four ESPN 100 prospects in the fold and are recruiting Walsh and Anthony Black.
Another one to watch could be Alabama, despite missing out on Smith on Wednesday. The Crimson Tide are heavily involved with a number of five-star prospects, including Jaden Bradley, Brandon Miller and Walker, and recently had ESPN 100 Noah Clowney on campus. North Carolina and Ohio State are currently in the top five, but are closer to being done with their classes than adding too many more players.
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Check out highlights from Duke commit Dereck Lively, the No. 2 player in ESPN’s 2022 basketball recruiting class.
3. Is it surprising that the top six players are all committed already?
In a vacuum, absolutely. In 2021, of the top six prospects, only Paolo Banchero committed before October. In 2020, only Evan Mobley was committed to a school this early in the process. And now we have all six. So what’s changed? Visits in June, for one. While previous classes have been allowed to take campus trips before their senior year, the 2022 class took advantage of it more than ever before.
Because of the coronavirus pandemic, official and unofficial visits had been off-limits since March 2020. Those restrictions were lifted on June 1. Schools raced to get prospects on campus and players were itching to get out on the road and see coaches and campuses. Players were allowed to take up to five official visits in June and early July, and then were able to take another five official visits after August 1. As a result, recruitments have been sped up this cycle.
Is it a lasting trend or a pandemic-influenced blip? That remains to be seen.
4. Which remaining five-stars are expected to decide before the early signing period?
It’s unlikely we will have too many five-star prospects waiting until the spring to make a decision. Jordan Walsh (No. 7), the nation’s top uncommitted senior, has taken visits to Arkansas, TCU, Oklahoma, Arizona State, Texas and Memphis and is set to visit Kansas in early October. There is growing buzz that a decision could come soon from Jaden Bradley (No. 8), with Arizona and Alabama best-positioned for the nation’s top-ranked point guard. Another elite point guard, Cason Wallace (No. 9), has set a decision date for later this fall — Kentucky is the perceived leader there, with Tennessee and Texas behind the Wildcats.
Brandon Miller (No. 13) was originally expected to announce his decision earlier this week, but pushed back his commitment. There are only two colleges in the mix for him, Alabama and Tennessee State, with the pro route also an option. If he does go to college, the Crimson Tide are the heavy favorite. We’ve mentioned Julian Phillips (No. 14) a few times already, as he took trips to Clemson, LSU and Florida in June, and USC and Tennessee this month. He cut his list to four — Florida State, LSU, Tennessee and USC — on Wednesday. Adem Bona (No. 17) is another five-star in the midst of a visit spree, with expected trips to Kansas, Baylor, Kentucky, USC and UCLA this fall. Kentucky was the perceived leader, especially after the Wildcats missed on Lively, but UCLA has generated plenty of recent buzz. Bona will visit Lexington this weekend.
Dillon Mitchell (No. 18) cut his list to Tennessee, Florida State and Texas earlier this week, while Jarace Walker (No. 19) has fall trips planned to LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Texas and Houston. Houston and Auburn were garnering most of the buzz around the industry.
While there’s a chance every five-star prospect has enough information to make a decision by the time the early signing period rolls around on Nov. 10, there will undoubtedly be a few wrinkles over the next six weeks. Recruiting is never as simple as it appears.
5. Is the professional route a legitimate option for anyone in particular?
Unlike 2021, when it was clear going pro was a real option for Jaden Hardy and Michael Foster, there aren’t too many remaining 2022 prospects considering it at this point. The main reason? They’ve already left. Elite guard Scoot Henderson signed with the G League, while Jazian Gortman, Amen and Ausar Thompson, Bryce Griggs and Dominick Barlow went with Overtime Elite.
The main five-star to keep an eye on is Brandon Miller. Miller has four options on his list: Alabama, Tennessee State, the G League and the NBL in Australia. Momentum has swung back and forth for Miller between the college and pro routes, but going pro is certainly in play for him.
6. What are Michigan, Gonzaga and Memphis — the top three classes in 2021 — up to in 2022?
It may seem conspicuous that we’ve barely mentioned any of the Wolverines, Zags or Tigers so far in this piece. Juwan Howard had Michigan atop the rankings in 2021, with top-15 forwards Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate leading the way. Gonzaga landed overall No. 1 prospect Chet Holmgren and two other five-star prospects. And Memphis dominated late in the process with the commitments — and reclassification decisions — of Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren.
Let’s start with Michigan. The Wolverines already have ESPN 100 pledges from Tarris Reed and Dug McDaniel. They recently hosted top-30 prospect Yohan Traore on campus, and it stands to reason they’re the heavy favorite for top-50 prospect Jett Howard — he’s the head coach’s son. Michigan has also hosted Ty Rodgers, Colin Smith and others.
Gonzaga isn’t fishing in quite the same waters it was in the 2021 class, but the Bulldogs landed their first commitment of the cycle earlier this week in forward Braden Huff. They’re squarely in the mix for borderline five-star prospect Anthony Black, battling with Oklahoma State and Arkansas. Mark Few’s program also hosted Jaden Bradley for an official visit earlier this month.
To be fair to Memphis, few thought the Tigers would end up with a top class at this stage of the 2021 cycle. Penny Hardaway has two commitments already in the fold in ESPN 100 guard Amarr Knox and fellow perimeter player Noah Batchelor. Zocko Littleton decommitted earlier this month. But Memphis is making moves in 2022. The Tigers hosted top uncommitted prospect Jordan Walsh last weekend and just brought Yohan Traore to campus. They are making strong inroads for ESPN 100 guard Zion Cruz and are recruiting local guard Chandler Jackson. It’s also worth noting they’ve made up a lot of ground for top-10 2023 guard Robert Dillingham and had him on campus earlier this month.
7. Which non-five-stars have the most interesting recruitments?
In terms of mystery and intrigue, it doesn’t get better than Yohan Traore (No. 29). One of the summer’s biggest breakout stars, Traore took visits to Texas and TCU in June and then blossomed into a borderline five-star prospect. So far this month, he’s taken visits to Texas Tech, Michigan and Memphis, with a trip to Kansas coming up. Coaches involved and sources with knowledge of his recruitment have told ESPN there’s been no clear indication of a leader or favorite at this point.
Gonzaga and Oklahoma State — the two schools to land No. 1 prospects in the previous two classes — don’t normally get into recruiting battles against each other, but the Zags and Cowboys are the favorites for Anthony Black (No. 26). Arkansas made up some ground after hosting him on a visit earlier this month, and Georgia has also brought him on campus officially.
Zion Cruz (No. 56) is an interesting case. He had a decision date set for early September, but pushed it back at the last second and has reopened his recruitment. Memphis has made a strong move since the decision postponement, while previous favorite Auburn no longer appears to be involved.
It’s also worth noting that J.J. Starling (No. 27) and Mark Mitchell (No. 30) could ultimately decide the No. 1 class if both commit to Duke. Notre Dame, Northwestern, Syracuse and Stanford are still very much in play for Starling, while Mitchell is also taking official visits this fall to UCLA, Kansas and Missouri.