Our college football conference preview continues with a closer look at the Group of 5 and independent schools.
Now that the win totals, conference title odds and national championship odds for every FBS team have been released, our experts — Bill Connelly, David Hale, Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh and Tyler Fulghum — give their best best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Group of 5 and independents Best bets
Notre Dame Fighting Irish under 9 wins (-125)
Kezirian: The Irish answered the call in 2020 and ripped through the ACC schedule undefeated, which included a win over Clemson. I do not envision similar success this season, even without a full conference schedule. This comes down to the Irish losing quarterback Ian Book (the school’s all-time QB wins leader) and numerous opportunities for the Golden Domers to stub their toe. The Irish will get everyone’s best shot and I think highly of Brian Kelly but we cannot assume the team’s best version on a weekly basis. Even the opener in Tallahassee is not an automatic win, and there are plenty of similar opponents throughout the season. The Irish face four schools currently ranked in the preseason Top 25 and still have road games against Virginia Tech, Virginia and Stanford. Yes, not much is expected from the Cardinal but that’s the regular season’s final game and they will be much better by then. If Notre Dame manages double-digit wins, then so be it. I think we have a strong chance for a push or win.
UNLV Rebels under 1.5 wins (-115)
Kezirian: The Rebels get to play in beautiful Allegiant Stadium but that’s the only special element the program can advertise. They went 0-6 (0-5-1 ATS) last year with an offense and defense that each ranked near the bottom in most categories. UNLV doesn’t have much relief in sight, although QB transfer Tate Martell is a giant wild card. My money is on Martell not being the savior, however, considering he’s already bounced around several programs before returning to his home state. I realize UNLV only needs two wins and maybe they catch a break with a visiting team violating curfew and hitting the Las Vegas strip, but this sure looks like another disappointing season. The Mountain West has some solid teams so the schedule doesn’t provide any winnable games, aside from the opener against formidable FCS school Eastern Washington.
Memphis Tigers to win the AAC (+1200)
Connelly: Cincinnati is an obvious AAC favorite at -220, and it would make sense that UCF is in the No. 2 spot at +450. But Memphis is a potential second-year leap candidate under Ryan Silverfield, and even without longtime starting QB Brady White, the Tigers bring enough back to rank 47th in SP+ with an average projected win total of 5.1 games in conference play. That’s third overall and only 0.5 wins behind UCF. That suggests they’re a single upset, at most, away from the conference title game … and that +1200 is a pretty good buy.
San Diego State Aztecs to win the Mountain West (+1200); over 6.5 wins (-105)
Connelly: These lines confuse me quite a bit. SDSU has been one of the surer things in the MWC in recent years, and while they slipped to 4-4 in Brady Hoke’s first season last year, (a) the defense was still dynamite, and (b) the four losses were all competitive games against an 11-2 BYU, 4-2 Colorado, 7-1 SJSU and 7-2 Nevada. The offense still isn’t trustworthy, but it doesn’t need to be very good to justify taking a flier on +1200 conference title odds, and even with the offensive concerns SP+ gives the Aztecs a 77% chance of winning at least seven games.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs over 4.5 wins (-130)
Kezirian: The Bulldogs have gone bowling in seven straight seasons with Skip Holtz at the helm, and I am not about to buck that trend. Even Bill Connelly’s season preview conceded he may be underestimating this program and they just find ways to win. The schedule has a lot of winnable games and it will come down to execution in the fourth quarter to cash this over. A lot is also riding on the shoulders of QB Luke Anthony, the Conference-USA Newcomer of the Year who suffered a leg injury during the season, but all signs point to his suiting up for the opener. I will bank on Holtz and company to find a way to five wins and maybe an eight straight bowl appearance.
Western Michigan Broncos to win the MAC (+800)
Connelly: With Buffalo (+280) and Ohio (+700) each losing their head coaches at awkward times this offseason — Buffalo lost Lance Leipold to Kansas in the spring and Ohio’s Frank Solich retired over the summer — the MAC might be pretty wide open this year. But without any sort of adjustment in that regard, SP+ still projected WMU with the second-most conference wins (5.2) behind Toledo (5.6). The No. 2 projected team with the sixth-best conference title odds? Sounds like an opportunity to me.
Florida Atlantic Owls to win Conference USA (+1200); over 7 wins (-110)
Connelly: FAU brings back almost everyone from a team that started 5-1 last season and played some of the best defense in the Group of 5. The offense was absolute dreck, but Willie Taggart brought in quite a few Power-conference transfers to raise the competition level, and SP+ projects the Owls to improve from 95th to 75th overall and gauges them — and not Marshall (+260 to win the league) — as the C-USA East favorite.
UTEP Miners over 2.5 wins (-150)
Connelly: It would take some incredibly rose-colored glasses to think that UTEP is going to be particularly good in 2021. The Miners are just 5-27 in Dana Dimel’s three seasons in charge, 2-26 against FBS foes. But when you play eight schools projected 104th or worse in SP+, you’re going to find some win opportunities. SP+ projects UTEP just 125th overall but gives them a 90% chance of winning at least three games. Beat New Mexico State and Bethune-Cookman in your first two games, and you’re already two-thirds of the way there.
UMass Minutemen over 1.5 wins (-150)
Connelly: Same thought process as UTEP. There’s no reason to expect huge things from Walt Bell’s Minutemen, but they play two FCS opponents, plus both UConn (127th in SP+) and New Mexico State (130th). Go 2-2 against those teams, and you hit the over whether you’re competitive against anyone else or not.
Temple Owls over 3 wins (-110)
Connelly: My SP+ projections don’t take “How much did COVID testing and tracking wreck your depth chart last year?” into account, but boy howdy, did Temple struggle in that regard. And that had a role to play in the way that they were competitive for three weeks — they beat USF and lost tight ones to Navy and Memphis — and then completely collapsed. Without making an adjustment for that, SP+ still gives the Owls a 78% chance of winning four or more games. If they’re better than the numbers think because of the depth chart issues, those odds only increase.