As nicknames go, “The Human First Down” is probably as endearing as it gets for a running back, and it took Arizona State‘s Rachaad White all of four games to earn the moniker.
That’s the abridged story, anyway. White’s 2020 campaign lasted just four games as Arizona State, and the Pac-12 in general, were beset by COVID-19 setbacks, but he made the most of his first season in Tempe by racking up 571 yards on just 50 total touches — an astonishing 11.4 yards per touch, hence the nickname — and led the Sun Devils in rushing and receiving. He averaged nearly 2 yards per touch more than any other player in the country with at least 40 rush attempts. Coaches define an explosive play as a rush of 12 yards or a reception of 16. More than a quarter of White’s touches last season were explosive.
In short, White’s four-game introduction was as electric as anyone else’s in 2020.
“I was just blessed to get four games,” White said. “I was just having fun practicing and treating that like it was my only chance, really.”
Chances were tougher to come by in 2020 for everyone, as COVID-19 played havoc with the schedule, and White is one of 10 players we’re pegging as potential breakouts in 2021 after a sneak peek at greatness last season.
For White, however, the trials of the 2020 season hardly tell the full story. He’s no overnight success, and while his Pac-12 résumé is still just four games long, he has proved himself again and again along the way.
Coming out of high school in Kansas City, Missouri, White had a handful of conversations with coaches at FBS schools, but offers never materialized. He was skinny, and he’d largely been used as a receiver. He hadn’t found a niche, and no one was willing to take a risk on him. He landed at Division II school Nebraska-Kearney, and he couldn’t get on the field, redshirting as a freshman in 2017. Still, he believed he had more to offer.
“I had dreams and aspirations to play in the NFL,” White said. “I was training, and I was hurt I didn’t get a Division I scholarship, and I started seeing improvement. I saw my body change. And that led to a chain of events that I went to juco.”
White transferred to Mt. San Antonio Junior College and, in his sophomore season, ran for 1,264 yards, blossoming into a legitimate prospect. Suddenly he had offers from schools that had ignored him during high school. He landed at Arizona State, where he quickly found himself enmeshed in a backfield-by-committee waiting for a season that almost never started.
“He went about every rep as a professional,” running backs coach Shaun Aguano said. “And just watching his fluidness as a runner, but because he was a receiver, also his route-running and his vision and his lateral quickness, the way he one-cuts, we just knew we needed to get him the ball.”
White’s first game at Arizona State came on the road against USC. He got 12 carries for 76 yards and added 70 yards and a touchdown through the air. Then came the long break. Arizona State didn’t play again for nearly a month. White kept practicing, kept getting better. In his next game, against UCLA, he added 106 all-purpose yards. A week later against Arizona, he ran for 133. In the Sun Devils’ finale, against Oregon State, White had his best game yet, rushing for 158 yards and two touchdowns.
But, of course, it was just four games. It was a trailer for a blockbuster movie, nonstop highlights that don’t really explain the full plot. It was the appetizer for 2021’s main course.
“I’m the type of guy where the past is in the past, and if I averaged 10 [yards per carry], I’m trying to beat that,” White said. “I’m trying to get better every year.”
This offseason, White has bulked up — he’s checking in at 210 pounds now — and worked on his blocking, where Augano said he’d already excelled, all in hopes of being an every-down performer for a full 12-game season. He’s well aware of the challenges of meeting such high expectations and doing so again and again over the course of a much longer campaign.
But White that challenge is what motivates him. Two years ago, he had a dream of playing big-time college football, but he might’ve been the only one who truly believed the dream could be realized. Now, building on that stellar four-game start doesn’t seem like such a tall mountain to climb.
“I know it’ll be hard, but that’s the type of ballplayer I am,” White said. “I always feel like it’s not enough.”
While White looks like a safe bet for a big 2021, here are nine more rising stars aiming to turn 2021 into a breakout campaign.
Stat comparison: Gibbs forced a missed tackle every 1.8 carries last season, tops in the country, while averaging 3.7 yards per carry after first contact. The only other running back in the country to approach those marks was North Carolina‘s Javonte Williams, who was selected 35th in this year’s NFL draft.
Why he’s poised for a breakout: An ESPN 300 recruit, Gibbs looked terrific as a freshman in 2020, but injuries and a shaky offensive line limited his impact. He missed three contests but still finished with 763 scrimmage yards in seven games. With the ball in his hands, he was electric, averaging an explosive play (12-yard run, 16-yard catch) on 18% of his plays, trailing only Texas’ Bijan Robinson among returning running backs with at least 100 touches. More impressively, Gibbs did it all while sharing a backfield with a true freshman quarterback (Jeff Sims) and behind an offensive line that struggled badly. Gibbs averaged just 1.5 yards before contact per rush, 130th among backs with 75 or more carries. But Gibbs is now healthy, Sims has a year of experience under his belt, and the Yellow Jackets have added serious heft to their line, including Vanderbilt transfer Devin Cochran. There may not be a more dynamic runner in the country than Gibbs, and if the supporting cast takes a step forward, too, this season could be something special for the Yellow Jackets sophomore.
What they’re saying: “He’s a really talented guy. He didn’t play against us last year, but just watching the film, he was probably the most talented tailback we saw. I thought he was elite. I’m glad we don’t play them [in 2021].” — NC State coach Dave Doeren
Stat comparison: Billingsley played sparingly through Alabama’s first six games, but prorate his numbers over the same number of snaps that Texas A&M‘s Jalen Wydermyer received, and Billingsley would’ve had an edge in yards (737 to 506), TDs (8 to 6) and first downs (35 to 30).
Why he’s poised for a breakout: There was a time when tight ends like O.J. Howard and Irv Smith were dynamic focal points of the Alabama offense, but it has been a few years since the position made that type of impact. That could change in 2021, as Billingsley looks to build on a terrific finish to his sophomore season. Despite seeing minimal action until late November, he finished with seven grabs of 16 yards or more — the same total as Wydermyer, the Texas A&M star. At 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, Billingsley can line up anywhere on the field — even kick returner, where he fielded five kicks for 89 return yards last season. The key, Nick Saban said, is buy-in. “He’s also got to buy in to the principles and values of the team and be a good teammate,” Saban said. It’s not fun getting on Saban’s bad side, but it also suggests the coach is invested in getting the most out of a talented player.
What they’re saying: “Jahleel is kind of a special talent in terms of what he can do. He has tight end size but really kind of wide receiver athleticism.” — Alabama coach Nick Saban
Stat comparison: Oklahoma’s Isaiah Thomas is a preseason All-Big 12 selection, but Duke’s pass-rush performance was every bit as good. Duke had a pressure rate of 12.8% compared to Thomas’ 12.5%. Duke’s rate of getting first pressure per pass rush was 11.1%, just a tick behind Thomas (11.2%). Duke had pressure on 13 plays that resulted in an incomplete pass, same as Thomas. The difference? Much of Duke’s effort was wasted, as K-State recorded just a single sack on his pressured snaps, while Oklahoma had 10 on Thomas’.
Why he’s poised for a breakout: Astonishingly, Duke finished the 2020 campaign with just three tackles for loss to go with his lone sack. Those numbers simply don’t match his underlying performance. Indeed, his own linemate, Wyatt Hubert, racked up 13 TFL despite a far lower pressure rate of 9%. Duke’s offseason has been strong, according to K-State coaches, however, and eventually the increasingly productive input is going to translate to a better stat line, too. It also suggests something about Duke that his best game of 2020 — nine tackles, two QB hurries and a TFL — came against Oklahoma.
What they’re saying: “He’s still polishing things up, all the things that make you a great football player. He has a lot of ability. He loves football, and that’s a big thing. It’s about attention to the details. When you become a guy people are going to game-plan for, you’re only going to have so many opportunities, and you can’t afford not to take advantage of them. But he’s very talented and has all the physical ability to be a really good pass-rusher.” — Kansas State line coach Buddy Wyatt
Stat comparison: Battle didn’t see action for Ole Miss until its fifth game of the season against Auburn. From there, he played 62 coverage snaps, was targeted eight times and didn’t allow a completion. The rest of Ole Miss’ defensive backs surrendered a 55% completion rate in that span.
Why he’s poised for a breakout: Five games into the 2020 season, Battle, a onetime blue-chip recruit at wide receiver, switched to defense. It was a trial by fire, as Battle admitted that the finer points of the position were far from refined, and his tackling technique needed improvement. But sheer skills — and a 6-3, 195-pound frame — were more than enough to make an instant impact. Battle played just 62 snaps in coverage but managed to break up four passes on eight targets. None of those eight targets resulted in a completion. That’s a high bar to set for his follow-up performance, but Battle appears ready. He ran with the starting defense throughout spring practice, and he’s added some heft to his frame to better handle the physical requirements of the job. More importantly, he’s had an offseason to learn the position. If Ole Miss is going to take the next step toward competing for an SEC West title, the defense — particularly the secondary — needs to make a major stride. Battle could be exactly the piece the Rebels are looking for.
What they’re saying: “He’s got great length and ability, and he’s done well in the transition from wide receiver.” – Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin
Stat comparison: Mafe recorded a pressure rate of 12.6% last season, with six sacks created, and he did it in less than half the snaps of Miami’s edge rusher Jaelen Phillips (11.6% pressure rate, 11 sacks created), who went on to be taken with the 18th pick in the 2021 NFL draft.
Why he’s poised for a breakout: The 2020 season was supposed to be Mafe’s breakthrough, but COVID-19 delayed the start and interrupted the schedule even after the Gophers got back on the field. The result was just a six-game sneak peek at what could be in store for 2021. Mafe finished with 18 solo tackles, 5.5 of them for a loss, two pass breakups, two forced fumbles and two QB hurries. He got pressure on nearly 13% of his pass rushes in 2020, putting him behind only Ohio State’s Zach Harrison and Tyreke Smith and Indiana’s Micah McFadden among Big Ten edge rushers. His disruption rate (sacks, turnovers, incompletions and penalties drawn per pass rush) of 10.7% puts him in the top 10 nationally.
What they’re saying: “It’s too bad the season got cut short last year because he had 4.5 sacks in six games that he played in, and that’s without training camp and everything else. He was destined for a true breakout year last year, just happened to get shortened. This year, I think people are going to really see what he can do.” — Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck
Stat comparison: Last season, Zappe threw for 1,833 yards and 15 TDs, which puts him on par with Penn State‘s Sean Clifford (1,883 yards, 16 TDs). Only difference is Clifford needed nine games to post those numbers. Zappe did it in four.
Why he’s poised for a breakout: You’re forgiven if you’re not familiar with Zappe, who played his first three seasons at FCS school Houston Baptist, but he got a taste of the limelight early last season as the Huskies played a shortened schedule against three FBS opponents in the wake of COVID-19 cancellations. Zappe threw for 1,453 yards and 12 TDs in those three games, including a ridiculous 567 against Texas Tech. Now he’s at Western Kentucky, along with his former Houston Baptist offensive coordinator Zach Kittley, and the air-it-out system could take the Conference USA by storm.
What they’re saying: “If you look at the Air Raid tree — Mike Leach, Kliff Kingsbury, Lincoln Riley, Zach Kittley — it’s a very special, productive tree. The game always evolves and is always changing, and you have to be on the forefront of that. That’s why I wanted to go get Zach Kittley. I think we’re at a good place. And you’ve got to have a trigger man to make it happen, and that’s why we went and got Bailey. We’re very excited about him.” — WKU head coach Tyson Helton
North Carolina receiver Josh Downs
Stat comparison: In his only significant action last season, Downs caught four passes for 91 yards and two touchdowns in UNC’s bowl game against Texas A&M. That stat line looked nearly identical to that of Florida’s Kadarius Toney (7 catches, 92 yards, 2 TDs) against the Aggies. Toney went on to become a first-round draft pick.
Why he’s poised for a breakout: North Carolina waved goodbye to its two most established receivers in Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome, but there’s little concern about the Tar Heels’ passing game. With QB Sam Howell still at the helm, the yards are going to come, and there seems little doubt that Downs, a speedy slot receiver, will get his fair share of them. His coming-out party in the Orange Bowl — a game Brown missed because of an opt-out — was just the first taste. UNC’s defensive backs have raved about the competition in 7-on-7s, lauding Downs as a potential All-ACC star for 2021.
What they’re saying: “We know what people expect from us. We talk here and there, pushing each other. We talk about our goals. You can speak it into existence, and Josh Downs, he’s going to be something special.” — UNC corner Tony Grimes
Stat comparison: Stogner had 11 explosive plays last season for Oklahoma, more than Clemson’s Braden Galloway (9), Georgia’s Arik Gilbert (8) or Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer (7) despite having far fewer targets than any of them.
Why he’s poised for a breakout: Stogner was off to a terrific start to 2020, topping 70 yards in four of seven games with three touchdowns, before a knee injury and a dangerous infection forced him to miss the final two regular-season games and the Big 12 title game. He’s worked his way back into shape, however, and he has a chance to be one of the most perplexing matchup problems in the country. His versatility makes him a problem as both an outside receiver and coming out of the backfield, but at 6-6, he’s genuinely one of the best blockers in the country, a rare perk for offensive-minded tight ends.
What they’re saying: “Austin has fought through so much to get back on the field for us this season. He’s got an unusual skill set that we’re looking forward to using.” — Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley
Stat comparison: Only six corners return for 2021 having allowed less than 33% of completions and 4 yards per target on at least 19 targets, as Boykin did. The one other corner with those numbers from 2020 who doesn’t return is Northwestern’s Greg Newsome, who was selected with the 26th overall pick in this year’s NFL draft.
Why he’s poised for a breakout: The onetime blue-chip recruit for Notre Dame transferred to UMass and was forced to sit out the 2019 season. His 2020 season offered only a small window into his ability, as COVID-19 upended the Minutemen’s season, which boiled down to four road games spread over a month and a half in late October and November. That sneak peek was impressive, however. Opposing QBs targeted Boykin 19 times but completed just one pass for more than 20 yards. Boykin finished with three pass breakups, a forced fumble and a tackle for loss, to boot. All of this while playing on a defense that surrendered 40 points per game. In 2021, Boykin and UMass will have a far better foundation underneath them, and while it’s unlikely the Minutemen are the surprise team of the season, their star-in-waiting cornerback will be well worth watching.
What they’re saying: “He knocked the rust off last year with an abbreviated schedule and very limited practice. He’s doing great now.” — Walt Bell, UMass head coach