College Football Playoff executive director Bill Hancock has made it clear — repeatedly — that the playoff isn’t changing this season or next, which means it’s still an exclusive club reserved for four.
While the usual suspects remain at the top heading into this fall, the field of contenders runs deeper than Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma. Teams like Georgia and Oregon are looking to return to the CFP, while Iowa State and Texas A&M are seeking to make their debuts.
And they’re not alone.
Here’s a look at the favorites in each league — and the teams with a shot at challenging them:
Jump to a conference: ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | Independents/Group of 5
ACC
Best chance: Clemson. Been there, won that. Twice. With six CFP appearances and two national titles, the Tigers have made the ACC a mainstay in the playoff conversation. The Sept. 4 season opener against Georgia will reveal which team — and conference — takes an early lead in the race to the top four.
Outside chance: North Carolina, Miami. Both UNC coach Mack Brown and Miami’s Manny Diaz have elevated their respective programs to the point where an upset of Clemson shouldn’t be considered shocking. Miami’s game at UNC on Oct. 16 will help determine the Coastal Division winner, but it’s the two teams’ nonconference schedules that could derail their playoff hopes. Miami opens the season Sept. 4 against Alabama and North Carolina has a tough trip to Notre Dame on Oct. 30.
Don’t forget about: Virginia Tech, Pitt. They’re listed here for their upset potential — and it starts on Sept. 3 with the Hokies’ home opener against UNC. With Lane Stadium preparing for a full-capacity crowd, the hype surrounding the Heels could disappear quickly. The role of Coastal spoiler is likely the ceiling for Virginia Tech, though, as the Hokies have a Sept. 18 road trip to West Virginia and the Oct. 9 game against Notre Dame. Pitt has an extremely difficult October, with an Oct. 16 trip to Blacksburg, followed by the Oct. 23 crossover game against Clemson and Miami on Oct. 30. Even if Pitt can win one of those three, it will change the picture.
Conference analysis: If it weren’t for Clemson (and the fleeting 2020 season of Notre Dame), the ACC would be irrelevant in the national championship conversation. The Pac-12 — which takes far more grief — is arguably a better conference from top to bottom, but lacks a great team. So the reality remains that it’s “Clemson and everybody else” until proven otherwise. The difference this fall, though, is that UNC and Miami have quietly gotten better, and if one of them can get a shot at Clemson in the ACC championship game, anything is possible if they get through the regular season unscathed or with one loss to a ranked opponent.
Big 12
Best chance: Oklahoma, Iowa State. The Big 12 could have a chance at placing two teams in the semifinals this year if OU and Iowa State can avoid losing to anyone but each other. Both teams have Heisman hopefuls and are projected to have two of the top three offenses this fall, along with Ohio State.
Outside chance: Texas, Oklahoma State. It could go either way for first-year coach Steve Sarkisian, but the first step is naming a starting quarterback to replace four-year starter Sam Ehlinger. Sarkisian said he hired defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski because he’d always been difficult to coach against. The Longhorns will be tested early with back-to-back games against Louisiana and Arkansas. Oklahoma State has consistently had spoiler potential, but quarterback Spencer Sanders has to be more consistent if the Cowboys are going to contend for the title. The defense has made noticeable strides.
Don’t forget about: TCU. The Horned Frogs were one of the playoff’s biggest stories in its inaugural season, but have been an afterthought since. They won five of their last six games in 2020, and quarterback Max Duggan returns along with a deep backfield. A return to the top 25 is possible if the defense can reload.
Conference analysis: This could be the year of the Big 12, as the league has two legitimate contenders and better depth than it has in the past. The question is if Iowa State can parlay last season’s Fiesta Bowl win and top-10 AP finish into even more. If nothing else, it should be one of the most entertaining conference races of the season.
Big Ten
Best chance: Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won four straight conference titles and are favored to do it again, but coach Ryan Day will have an unproven starting quarterback replacing Justin Fields. The five signal-callers on the roster have combined to throw just three career FBS pass attempts. Whomever earns the starting job will make an immediate impact — for better or for worse — with games at Minnesota and home against Oregon to start the season.
Outside chance: Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa. Indiana pushed the Buckeyes in 2020 before losing 42-35 in Columbus, and 19 starters return with something to prove. A nonconference win against Cincinnati would also carry weight with the selection committee. Wisconsin, which had three games cancelled last year because of COVID-19 and finished with a weird 4-3 record, will most certainly look different. The Badgers have a 47.7% chance to win the Big Ten West — the highest percentage in the division. If Iowa starts the season 2-0 with wins against IU and rival Iowa State, start paying attention to the Hawkeyes. They get Penn State at home, don’t face Ohio State during the regular season and their most difficult games will be behind them.
Don’t forget about: Penn State. The Nittany Lions started 0-5 in 2020, but ended the season on a four-game winning streak. The truth lies somewhere in between. Road trips to Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State will determine how much of an anomaly last season really was.
Conference analysis: The Big Ten will be better than 2020 because it couldn’t possibly be much worse. Nine teams finished with losing records amassed during a shortened season disrupted routinely by COVID-19, including Penn State, Michigan and Nebraska. The brand-name schools have to be better, and Penn State should be with 82% of its offensive production returning, including starting quarterback Sean Clifford. Michigan is projected to have a top-25 offense this season, but the defense has to make significant strides.
Pac-12
Best chance: Oregon. The massive Sept. 11 game at Ohio State will reveal if Oregon can compete for something bigger than the conference title. The offensive line returns four starters and there’s depth returning at the skill positions. Mario Cristobal and his staff have recruited well, but might still be a year away from reaping the rewards.
Outside chance: USC. The Trojans have dominated their division, but since the conference expanded to 12 teams in 2011, USC has just one Pac-12 title in three championship game appearances. The talent is there. The pressure is on Clay Helton to make the most of it.
Don’t forget about: Arizona State, Washington. Washington could have one of the best offensive lines in the country, and with a manageable schedule, could also be one team nobody sees coming. The Nov. 6 game against Oregon is at home, but it’s followed by what should be another tricky home game against Arizona State. A promising season for the Sun Devils has been overshadowed by an NCAA investigation into alleged recruiting violations, and it’s unclear at this point how and when that will impact the team and the coaching staff.
Conference analysis: The Pac-12 hasn’t reached the playoff since 2016, and it’s likely that streak continues. Depth is not the issue — the league has plenty of good teams, just not a great one. Scheduling, exposure, public perception and exclusion from the playoff are problems, but only so much of that falls onto the coaches. If Oregon or USC — or ideally both — emerge as top-10 teams with one as a true playoff contender, everything else will quietly fix itself with a new commissioner and athletic directors who understand the challenges. Last year was an anomaly. The Pac-12 champion usually won’t finish No. 25, but it has to be in the top 10.
SEC
Best chance: Alabama, Georgia. They’re on a collision course again. The question is if Georgia can unseat the Tide this time on the sport’s biggest stage. When the two played for the national title following the 2017 season, Alabama won 26-23 in overtime. The Bulldogs should have one of the league’s better quarterbacks in JT Daniels, who will be surrounded by playmakers. Georgia’s legitimacy as a playoff contender will be tested in the season opener against Clemson.
Outside chance: Texas A&M. The Aggies felt the pain of the No. 5 spot last fall, but it’s not going to be easy to unseat the favorites with a new starting quarterback AND four new starters on the offensive line. There are high expectations, though, for tailback Isaiah Spiller and a stingy defense.
Don’t forget about: Ole Miss, LSU. At Ole Miss, Lane Kiffin should have one of the most explosive offenses in the country, but the Rebels won’t be a factor unless the defense improves. Matt Corral led the nation in total offense and ranked top five in the FBS in completion percentage, passing yards per game and Total QBR last season. He lost his top two targets, though, and has to cut down on the 14 interceptions he threw last year. LSU will have two new coordinators and a new quarterback but plenty of talent returning all over the roster. There remains a cloud of uncertainty looming with a major Title IX lawsuit that recently included Ed Orgeron as a defendant.
Conference analysis: The SEC is in its usual spot at the top and should have the most playoff contenders once again this season. No conference has a better chance to place two teams in the top four. Still, the SEC East could be one of the weakest divisions in the country. There’s a lot of hype surrounding Florida as a top-25 team, but is it warranted? The Gators have to replace key starters on offense, and the defense last year allowed 30 points per game and six yards per play. Florida has until Oct. 30 to put it all together for Georgia.
Independent/Group of 5
Best chance: Notre Dame. There’s some overlap here, as the Irish face Cincinnati on Oct. 2 — and they hired the Bearcats’ defensive coordinator. Marcus Freeman, who spent the past four seasons with Cincinnati, led the Bearcats to a top-15 ranking last fall in both scoring defense (16.8 points per game) and total defense (324.6). Notre Dame will need to rely on its defense as a new quarterback replaces Ian Book. Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan is the favorite, and he could help the Irish open it up a bit. Notre Dame also returns running back Kyren Williams, the 2020 ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Outside chance: Cincinnati. Schedule is everything for a Group of 5 contender, and the Bearcats might have it. If Cincinnati can beat both Indiana and Notre Dame en route to an undefeated season, it would have the résumé of a playoff contender. The average top-25 team would have a 15% chance to go 12-0 against the Bearcats’ schedule.
Don’t forget about: Coastal Carolina, Louisiana. The Chanticleers captured the nation’s attention last year, and are again favored to win the Sun Belt, but Appalachian State might have something to say about it. Their Oct. 20 game should determine the East division winner — setting up a likely championship game against Louisiana.
Overall analysis: It’s going to remain a long shot for any Group of 5 team to make the CFP as long as it remains a four-team field. Coastal’s strength of schedule is currently No. 116. Louisiana is No. 77, but opening the season with a win at Texas would resonate with the selection committee all season. It probably still wouldn’t be enough, though, for anything more than New Year’s Six bowl consideration.