METAIRIE, La. — No, quarterback Drew Brees has not officially announced his retirement yet. And yes, Russell Wilson’s agent has identified the New Orleans Saints as a preferred destination if he gets traded.
But if you’re handicapping the Saints’ quarterback field for 2021, Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill remain the odds-on favorites to compete for the job this summer.
Of course the Saints could consider a splash move like trading a truckload of draft picks for Wilson (if he actually becomes available) or moving up 20-plus spots in the NFL draft to get their hands on a top-five QB prospect. The position is important enough to weigh all scenarios.
But Winston and Hill are the most realistic and affordable options. More importantly, the Saints have given every indication they believe both have the potential to grow into playoff-caliber starters.
Here’s a closer look at New Orleans’ options:
Any chance Brees stays?
Only if he has a change of heart. So far, both Brees and the team have been operating as if he will retire at age 42. He lowered his salary last month to the veteran minimum of $1.075 million to create as much salary-cap space as possible for the Saints. And the team has been approaching free agency as if it has a vacancy to fill.
Of course it’s possible Brees could change his mind. That’s essentially what he did last year when he was leaning toward retirement before he decided to come back. But sources suggested to not read much into Brees’ trainer Todd Durkin posting a workout video last week (we’ll be seeing competitive workout videos like those long after Brees is done playing). And it shouldn’t be surprising Brees is taking his time with this decision. He has always been diligent about the “process” with everything he does.
Trade for a superstar?
If Wilson wants to come to New Orleans, the Saints (and New Orleans’ mayor) would welcome him with open arms. And they would make an aggressive offer, despite the fact they were still about $60 million over the projected salary cap as of Tuesday. The same goes for Deshaun Watson if he becomes available via trade. If the Saints have to trade or release some of their current starters, they’ll do it to acquire an elite quarterback.
There are two problems, however. One is neither the Seattle Seahawks nor the Houston Texans are openly shopping Wilson and Watson at this point, so it seems highly unlikely a deal could come together before the start of free agency. The bigger hurdle is the Saints can’t offer a premium draft choice or a young developmental QB in return.
Other quarterbacks could become available on the trade market depending on how the game of musical chairs plays out around the league — potentially including Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota, Sam Darnold or Tua Tagovailoa. The Saints obviously like Bridgewater after he spent two years in New Orleans, and they liked Garoppolo when he was coming out in the draft. But Bridgewater is due $39 million over the next two years, while Garoppolo is due more than $50 million over the next two years.
The Saints could re-sign Winston in free agency for a much lower price without having to give up any draft picks to acquire him. It will be hard to sway them to anyone that isn’t an elite upgrade.
The case for Winston
Coach Sean Payton made it clear the Saints want Winston back in free agency after he spent one year in the building as a backup last season. Not only was Payton enamored with Winston’s “tremendous arm talent” (which he showed off with a 56-yard touchdown pass on a trick play in New Orleans’ playoff loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), but Payton also called Winston “fantastic as a leader.”
Of course there are some well-known shortcomings with Winston’s game, including accuracy issues and a turnover epidemic. But he was the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft for a reason; he led the NFL with 5,109 passing yards in 2019; and he just turned 27 in January. He has also made strides toward improving his game, including LASIK eye surgery, improved diet and fitness — and the humble decision to come to New Orleans to learn under Payton and Brees for a year.
Winston is no sure thing, but he probably has as much potential as anyone the Saints could acquire in this year’s draft. He would have to win the job against Hill in training camp. But the fact that he is younger than the 30-year-old Hill, with a higher ceiling — and Hill could continue to be used in his versatile role as a runner/receiver — could give Winston an edge.
The case for Hill
All those nice things Payton said about Winston pale in comparison to the glowing praise Payton has heaped on Hill over the years. However, Hill neither secured nor lost his grip on the long-term job when he went 3-1 as a starter last season while Brees was injured.
Hill was better than most outsiders expected as a passer, completing 71.9% of his throws for 834 yards, four TDs and two interceptions in those four starts. But he needs to improve his anticipation and decision-making once he gets past his first or second read. And he definitely needs to improve his ball security after fumbling 10 times and losing five of them in 2020. Most of his trouble came when he held onto the ball too long in the pocket — a surprise, considering his outstanding rushing ability.
All of those things could improve with more experience, though, especially since he hadn’t played regular snaps at quarterback since he was a senior at BYU in 2016. And both Payton and Hill could do a much better job of exploiting Hill’s legs by either designing more run plays or encouraging him to scramble sooner. The only drawback to that approach would be injury risk, since Hill seems to relish contact rather than sliding or running out of bounds.
What about the draft?
ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay had quarterbacks going at Nos. 1, 2, 3, 4 and 9 in his latest mock. So the price would be exorbitant for the Saints to move up from No. 28 — even if someone like Alabama’s Mac Jones or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance falls a little farther than expected.
If the Saints decide to go the draft-and-develop route, one name ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. suggested as a possibility is Jamie Newman — who started 16 games at Wake Forest from 2018-19, then opted out of last season over coronavirus concerns after transferring to Georgia.
“Here’s a kid who showed a lot of talent and promise,” Kiper said. “Had he played at Georgia, he might have been a first- or second-round pick. Now you’re getting him in the third or fourth round possibly.”
ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller also listed Florida’s Kyle Trask and Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond as likely Round 2 picks with the potential to develop into starters.