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John GasawayESPN Insider
Just three weeks ago, Michigan State was 4-9 in the Big Ten. The Spartans had already been swept by both Iowa and Purdue, and Tom Izzo’s team had needed a 6-0 run at the end of the game to escape with a two-point victory at home over Penn State.
With that 4-9 conference record, MSU next played on the road at Indiana and fell behind the Hoosiers by 13 in the first half. From that moment, however, everything changed, somehow, for Michigan State. The Spartans came back and defeated Indiana by seven. It was the start of a seven-game stretch that appears to have saved MSU’s season.
Wins at home over Illinois and Ohio State came next. Road losses to Maryland and Michigan were offset by victories in East Lansing over Indiana and the Wolverines.
The difference during this late push has plainly been a significantly improved offense. Michigan State has turned the ball over less often and has shot a bit better on its 2s in the past seven contests.
Now, the Spartans are 15-11 overall and 9-11 in the Big Ten, right in the major conference sweet spot, historically speaking, for the lower tier of at-large bids. In the past 10 NCAA tournaments, the men’s basketball committee handed out 16 at-large invites to teams that finished under .500 in conference play.
All 16 of those teams were members of “major” conferences and, on average, they were seeded on the No. 10 line. The Spartans might be headed for a double-digit seed, as well. Compared to where they were three weeks ago, they’ll take it.
Here’s our current projection of the bubble:
Bids from traditional one-bid leagues (minus the Ivy): 20 teams
Locks: 32 teams
The bubble: 25 teams for 16 available spots
Should be in: 7 teams
Work to do: 18 teams
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others
ACC
Locks: Virginia, Florida State, Clemson
Should be in
The day before a scheduled home game against Louisville, Virginia Tech announced that the contest was canceled due to a COVID-19 “contract-tracing review” in the Hokies’ program. The news landed at a time when Mike Young’s team was coming off a dominant 38-point win over Wake Forest. Virginia Tech is projected as a No. 8 seed. Bubble Watch HQ sends best wishes to the Hokies for good health and a return to action sooner rather than later.
Work to do
When the Cardinals defeated Georgia Tech 74-58 in Louisville on the first day of February, it didn’t seem like a big deal. Now, however, that victory fairly stands out as the best selling point on Louisville’s profile. The nominal Quad 1 win at Duke, for example, looks a little less impressive now that we know the Blue Devils will be the No. 10 seed at the ACC tournament. The Cardinals have played just 19 games in their abbreviated season, and Chris Mack’s team was seen as a likely No. 10 seed in the NCAA tourney before the 10-point loss at home to Virginia. In the ACC tournament bracket, Louisville will face either Boston College or Duke.
Let us have no more of this “struggling blue-chip programs” talk. Feast your eyes instead on North Carolina. Yes, for reasons that remain obscure, Marquette is clearly UNC’s kryptonite. But as long as the Tar Heels can safely avoid the Golden Eagles in the field of 68 (Roy Williams may be watching the Big East tournament closely), it bears mention that this rotation is looking increasingly potent as Selection Sunday draws nearer. It’s been three weeks since an ACC opponent scored a point per possession against this defense, and the one-possession loss at Syracuse was bracketed by wins over Florida State and Duke. The projected No. 10 seed is a new experience for North Carolina, no doubt, but the basketball being played by the Tar Heels is looking more and more familiar.
Anyone wondering how a team should go about playing its way into the tournament would do well to study Georgia Tech. Following victories over Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Duke, the Yellow Jackets went from “first four out” status to a projected No. 11 seed in the space of just three days. Josh Pastner’s team closed out its regular season with a 12-point win at Wake Forest, and the final numbers from conference play testify to a dramatically improved offense led by Moses Wright and Jose Alvarado. Georgia Tech is within striking distance of the program’s first NCAA appearance in 11 years.
There are two forms of suspense attached to the Orange in 2021. There is, of course, the question of whether Syracuse can lift itself out of its current “next four out” status and reach the NCAA tournament. In addition to that uncertainty, however, there’s the issue of whether this team will record a Quad 1 win this season. That answer can change, literally, daily. One day not long ago, NC State was ranked No. 75 in the NET, rendering the Orange’s win over the Wolfpack in February a Quad 1 win. The next day, Kevin Keatts’ group slipped to No. 76, and the game against Syracuse retroactively shifted into the Quad 2 category. There’s a similar spectator sport to be had with regard to the win at home over Clemson and whether the Tigers are above or below No. 30 on a given day. Grab some popcorn and watch those rankings.
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Joe Lunardi breaks down Duke’s slim NCAA tournament chances after losing to North Carolina.
Say Duke makes it all the way to the ACC tournament title game before losing. Can the Blue Devils still earn an at-large bid? If Duke reaches the ACC title game, it will be because the Blue Devils have defeated Boston College, Louisville, Florida State and Virginia Tech. The Eagles notwithstanding, those other three potential opponents are all ranked in between Nos. 10 and 60 on the NET. So, sure, those three wins would give Duke a nice boost — but Mike Krzyzewski’s team is instead trying to leap a vast canyon. While Duke is going on its theoretical four-game win streak, other bubble teams will have to lose. It would be an easier lift for the Blue Devils to just win five games (which, to be clear, is no easy lift) and grab the automatic bid.
Big 12
Locks: Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is shown here as a “lock” to make the tournament. OSU is appealing an NCAA ruling that would prohibit the men’s basketball team from postseason play. As long as that appeal is still under consideration by the NCAA, this season’s team would be allowed to participate in the tournament.
Big East
Should be in
Now that Villanova is trying to find its way without the injured Collin Gillespie and Creighton is dealing with a coaching suspension, there’s a fair possibility the best team in the Big East at this moment is UConn. The Huskies have been blowing opponents off the floor, with the latest example being a 98-82 dismantling of Georgetown in Storrs. With their Big East season completed, Dan Hurley’s men can lay claim to easily the league’s best defense as well as an increasingly dominant scorer in James Bouknight. Purveyors of mock brackets have noted all of the above, and in the space of eight days UConn ascended from the No. 12 line to a No. 9 seed. Some unlucky top seed could get more than it bargained for in the round of 32 from the Huskies.
Work to do
Take away Xavier’s win over Creighton (a game that has become notable for its aftermath in the Bluejays locker room) and you are looking at a Musketeers team that over the past three weeks has lost UConn, St. John’s, Providence, Georgetown and Marquette. During that same span, Travis Steele’s group recorded victories over CU and Butler. It’s the win over Creighton that has kept the Xavier men in the projected field, albeit as a No. 12 seed. The 2-5 finish and 6-7 Big East record, however, will in all probability pull the Musketeers down and out of the mock brackets and create a classic “work to do” situation at the Big East tournament.
The wheels have come off at Seton Hall. Consecutive losses at Georgetown, at Butler, at home to UConn and at St. John’s have dropped the Pirates to 13-12. Kevin Willard’s team had already been pushed out of the projected field prior to the 10-point loss in Queens, and the slide down the pecking order of bubble teams will now continue. Wins recorded in December at Penn State and Xavier still qualify as Quad 1s. But the one game that’s keeping the Pirates anywhere near this discussion is the 80-73 victory they recorded at UConn one month ago (a contest in which, to be sure, James Bouknight did not play for the Huskies).
You just can’t keep St. John’s out of Bubble Watch. Six straight wins landed the Red Storm here in early February. Then three losses in four games earned them a brief period of invisibility around these parts. Now, Mike Anderson’s men are back, thanks to victories at home over Providence and fellow bubble aspirant Seton Hall. Wins on the road at UConn and at home over Villanova give this profile enough heft to get St. John’s in the conversation. Yet there’s work to be done at the Big East tournament.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue
Should be in
Bubble Watch did not expect to be discussing Maryland again. After all, a win at home for the Terrapins over Penn State would have resulted in “lock” status. Instead, the Nittany Lions closed the contest on a 20-11 run to post a five-point victory. The result leaves the Terps 15-12 overall and 9-11 in the Big Ten. That’s very similar to the numbers Michigan State is showing and, like the Spartans, Mark Turgeon’s team has some outstanding wins, up to and including road victories at Illinois and Wisconsin. Still, the loss to Penn State is a bad look at the end of the season, as is the fact that Maryland was swept by the Nittany Lions. While the Terps are staying here in “Should be in” for now, Bubble Watch is closely watching this unexpected developing situation.
Nothing helps a struggling bubble team quite like a struggling opponent that has already played its way out of at-large contention. Rutgers appeared to be in a bit of bracket peril after a profile-damaging 21-point loss at Nebraska capped off a stretch of three defeats in four outings. But Steve Pikiell’s men managed to pick up an overtime win at Minnesota in the season finale. The Scarlet Knights were being projected as a No. 10 seed at tipoff, which suggests that the program has indeed secured its first NCAA tournament bid in 30 years. An 0-1 showing by Rutgers at the Big Ten tournament, for example, would not appear to be a bid-stopper if, as seems plausible, the winning team in that game is a NET top-75 opponent.
If you had somehow been deprived of all college basketball scores and news for the entire season only to be shown Michigan State’s record for the first time today, you would likely say something like: “Wow, down season, but now Tom Izzo will probably make the Final Four as a No. 11 seed.” The Spartans have played no fewer than 13 Quad 1 games and won four of them. That’s not a great winning percentage, but when you beat Michigan, Illinois and Ohio State, you will get the committee’s attention. Mock brackets were already showing MSU as one of the last four teams in the field before its win at home over the Wolverines. Then, in the wake of that victory, Joe Lunardi promoted Michigan State to “last four byes.” Bubble Watch isn’t ready to call the Spartans a lock, but Izzo’s men have certainly earned their upgrade to “Should be in.”
Pac-12
Should be in
The Bruins have been shown as a No. 9 seed in mock brackets for three weeks, but that might be about to change for the worse. Mick Cronin’s men closed the season by losing three in a row, and the most recent defeat, in particular, was a heartbreaker. USC’s Tahj Eaddy drained a 3 with one second left in Saturday’s game to lift the Trojans to a one-point win over their archrival at Pauley Pavilion. The end-of-season skid means this Bruins team could be projected as a double-digit seed sooner rather than later. That’s not the end of the world, of course, for a group that’s still comfortably in “Should be in” territory. It is, however, a different March outlook than the Bruins expected just three games ago.
SEC
Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, LSU
Work to do
Yes, 15-10 Ole Miss has work to do at the SEC tournament. Plenty of work, in fact, but the Rebels should see this glass half full. At a time when six SEC teams are already locks at Bubble Watch and when both Alabama and Arkansas are being shown on the top three seed lines of mock brackets, this league offers ambitious bubble teams everything they could wish for in terms of quality opponents. The SEC is arguably stronger, top to bottom, than it has been in over a decade, meaning Ole Miss doesn’t have to fret about where it lands in the bracket: Take a spot anywhere and win some games.
American
Locks: Houston
Work to do
With a win at home over Houston to its credit, Wichita State entered mock brackets in the last week of February as one of the last teams in the field. The Shockers have maintained that position ever since, and, barring a bad loss at the American tournament, Isaac Brown’s group might not get an opportunity to improve its projected seed to any significant extent. Any rematch with the Cougars, for example, could take place in the American title game, in which case another “big” victory over Kelvin Samson’s team would also hand WSU the automatic bid.
Maybe someday in the far off future the committee will be replaced entirely by a metric that measures how difficult it would be to duplicate any team’s wins and losses given the opponents and venues where that record was compiled. When that happens and “strength of record” (SOR), “wins above bubble” (WAB) or something similar is in the driver’s seat, it will be good news for SMU. In a SOR world, the 11-4 Mustangs would be a No. 10 seed. In the real world, however, Tim Jankovich’s men rank in the high 50s on the NET and inhabit the far outer fringes of the bubble. Keep winning, SMU.
A spectacular finish at Houston may have finished off any at-large hopes for Memphis. The Tigers’ Boogie Ellis tied the game with a 3 with 1.5 seconds remaining. After a timeout, the Cougars then won on a buzzer-beating 3 off glass by Tramon Mark. When Mark’s game-winner cleared the net, mock brackets were showing Memphis as a member of the “next four out” list. That means Penny Hardaway’s team has work to do at the American tournament. This is the part where Bubble Watch usually says, “[Bubble Team X] can only face [Lock Y] in the title game, so anything short of an automatic bid won’t work.” Not true for Memphis! In what amounts to a really good break for the Tigers, the top seed in this bracket is Wichita State. That means No. 2 seed Houston, by far the strongest opponent in the field in NET terms, could be waiting for the No. 3 Tigers in the semifinals. Go strong in that quarterfinal, Memphis, and then let’s talk.
Others
Locks: Gonzaga, BYU, Loyola Chicago, San Diego State
Should be in
In the space of just 19 games played during a paused and shortened season, St. Bonaventure has made a commendably strong case for an at-large bid. Mark Schmidt’s team was already in the top 30 of the NET rankings before the Atlantic 10 tournament semifinal win over Saint Louis, and mock brackets were showing the Bonnies as a No. 10 seed. The decision over the Billikens goes into the books as a Quad 1 win, the team’s third this season against just two defeats. With each postseason victory, there will be more talk of Schmidt as a candidate for other positions (possibly Boston College). For now, St. Bonaventure will gladly take the “each postseason victory” half of that bargain.
Work to do
The Atlantic 10 title game is going to have a heavy major conference vibe, because it would appear that, win or lose, both VCU and St. Bonaventure will make the field of 68. The Rams are projected as a No. 11 seed, and the team has received a lift from the return of Bones Hyland, after he missed two games with an injured foot. The strong showing at the A-10 tournament has been a welcome turn of events for a program with unfinished postseason business. In 2019, VCU breezed through conference play at 16-2 only to lose to Rhode Island in the A-10 quarterfinals. The Rams were then given a No. 8 seed on Selection Sunday, and they lost by 15 in the round of 64 to UCF. Mike Rhoades’ current team has already outperformed that precedent in the conference tournament and will seek to do the same in the NCAA’s bracket.
The Bulldogs were being projected as one of the last three teams in the field at the final horn of their loss to Loyola Chicago in the Missouri Valley tournament title game. There is zero profile damage incurred in losing to a NET top-20 opponent such as the Ramblers on a neutral floor, so for the sake of discussion, say that Drake is still one of the last three teams in the theoretical field. There’s a good deal of basketball to be played between now and Selection Sunday, and Drake can earn an at-large bid if “first four out” teams fail to climb higher in the bracket. The Bulldogs do have one win over Loyola in three tries, a NET ranking in the top 50 and a 25-4 overall record. It’s going to be a close call for the committee, and the Bulldogs will quite rightly worry about each bid thief and every strong run by another bubble team.
The Rams ended their regular season with an 85-82 loss at Nevada after the Wolf Pack’s Grant Sherfield hit a 3-pointer in the final seconds. The outcome qualifies as a Quad 2 defeat, and it capped off an intense stretch run in which CSU played four games within seven days. Wins at home over Air Force (twice) and New Mexico were followed by the setback in Reno. Niko Medved’s team was projected as a No. 11 seed prior to the loss, and it’s probable Colorado State will now enter the Mountain West tournament forecast as one of the last teams in or first teams out of the field of 68.
After Craig Smith’s men lost two games at Boise State by a total of 13 points, the bubble outlook looked grim indeed. Then a funny thing happened. Projected Nos. 11 and 12 seeds started falling out of the bracket, while a few “first four out” and “next four out” programs also encountered difficulties in winning games. Meanwhile, USU was quietly taking care of business with three wins at home, two against Nevada and one against Wyoming. The Aggies then capped off this sequence with a come-from-behind victory at Fresno State in the season finale. This combination of faltering competitors and steady performance on Utah State’s part has lifted the Aggies back into the picture. The 50-something NET ranking still looks adequate, and the “sweep” of San Diego State (both games were played in Logan, Utah) is still impressive. USU has a chance.
The “Quad 4 loss on the second day of March” thing is not a good look. Boise State was being projected as a No. 11 seed before losing at home by three points to Fresno State. Now BSU’s tournament fate is very much open to question. Prior to the loss, the Broncos seemed as “safe” as a team on the No. 11 line can be, meaning Boise State had appeared in the consensus projected field every day over the course of the past month. That streak in the “fake” bracket will likely end, and the previously top-35 NET ranking will take a hit. BSU is very much in need of a strong showing at the Mountain West tournament.
After SLU’s loss to St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic 10 semifinals, coach Travis Ford said his team was looking to schedule a game in the coming week. The impulse to improve this profile is sound because, as it stands, there may not be enough here for a 14-6 team with a top-50 NET ranking to earn an at-large bid. The win over LSU is significant, of course, as is the regular-season win over the Bonnies in St. Louis. If the Billikens do come up short, however, one telling of the story could hold that even one win against VCU or one more against St. Bonaventure may have made a significant difference within the small number of games the Billikens played. So yes, schedule wisely, Coach Ford. In NET terms, the highest-ranked team that has already ended its season without realistic hope of a bid would appear to be Davidson. Just a suggestion.