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John GasawayESPN Insider
Atlantic 10 teams have been fixtures for weeks here at Bubble Watch. Now St. Bonaventure, VCU and Saint Louis are each vying to get out of “Work to do” and become a lock by winning the league’s automatic bid at the A-10 tournament.
Among the 13 A-10 teams that don’t cut down the nets, there will be at least two and possibly three programs still here at the Watch that are hoping to hear their names called on Selection Sunday. While bubble hopefuls can on occasion see their chances diminished by a poor showing at the conference tournament, that doesn’t figure to be an issue in the A-10 this year.
The league’s bracket gave every A-10 bubble team a bye into the quarterfinals. From there, the Bonnies, the Rams and the Billikens all won their games and made their way to the semifinals.
Naturally, there is always the possibility that the automatic bid could be won by a team not featured here at Bubble Watch. This year, that team would have to be Davidson, which has made its way to semifinals. If Bob McKillop’s team does win the A-10 tournament, it will be correct to term Davidson a bid thief — again. The A-10 has a rich history of producing bid thieves. The last two winners of the league tournament (which did not take place in 2020) took NCAA at-large bids off the board: Davidson in 2018 and Saint Louis in 2019.
Still, even if no bid thief emerges from the A-10, the league has a shot at putting three teams in the field of 68. Last year the pandemic wiped out what may have been a No. 1 seed for Dayton. In 2021, the A-10 hopes to return to the NCAA field in force.
Here’s our current projection of the bubble:
Bids from traditional one-bid leagues (minus the Ivy): 20 teams
Locks: 31 teams
The bubble: 26 teams for 17 available spots
Should be in: 5 teams
Work to do: 21 teams
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others
ACC
Locks: Virginia, Florida State, Clemson
Should be in
The day before a scheduled home game against Louisville, Virginia Tech announced that the contest was canceled due to a COVID-19 “contract-tracing review” in the Hokies’ program. The news landed at a time when Mike Young’s team was coming off a dominant 38-point win over Wake Forest. Virginia Tech is projected as a No. 8 seed and scheduled to finish the regular season with a road date at NC State. Bubble Watch HQ sends best wishes to the Hokies for good health and a return to action sooner rather than later.
Work to do
On consecutive Saturdays, Louisville played road games at North Carolina and Duke. In the game against the Tar Heels, Chris Mack’s team was playing its first competitive basketball in 19 days due to a COVID-19 pause. It showed. The Cardinals lost by 45 to UNC, and missing the NCAA tournament entirely suddenly seemed a tangible, if remote, possibility. But then, in the second leg of its Tobacco Road visit, Louisville prevailed over Duke 80-73 in overtime. That gives the Cards a season sweep over the Blue Devils and halts a slide in the projected bracket that landed this team on the No. 10 line. Louisville will close the season at home against Virginia.
Who knew the win at home over Florida State would be even larger for North Carolina than it appeared in real time? Flip that single outcome from a win to a loss and you’re looking at a UNC team that now would be sitting on a three-game losing streak. Instead, Roy Williams’ team is merely coming off a hard-fought 72-70 defeat at Syracuse. The Tar Heels were shown as a No. 10 seed in mock brackets before the trip to upstate New York, so, to be sure, things could become uncomfortable for UNC in the event of a loss in its upcoming home game to a certain storied rival. Has Duke-North Carolina ever been a bubble showdown? It is now.
Anyone wondering how a team should go about playing its way into the tournament would do well to study Georgia Tech. Following victories over Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Duke, the Yellow Jackets went from “first four out” status to a projected No. 11 seed in the space of just three days. Josh Pastner’s team closed out its regular season with a 12-point win at Wake Forest, and the final numbers from conference play testify to a dramatically improved offense led by Moses Wright and Jose Alvarado. Georgia Tech is within striking distance of the program’s first NCAA appearance in 11 years.
Mike Krzyzewski’s team is ending its regular season with back-to-back Quad 1 win opportunities, and the Blue Devils have already swung and missed, barely, on the first one. Duke took Georgia Tech to overtime in Atlanta before falling short, and now more or less everything rides on their its at North Carolina. Could the Blue Devils conceivably earn an at-large after a loss in Chapel Hill by going all the way to the ACC tournament title game? Anything is possible, but one thing to price in there is that the ACC is not offering its usual menu of “big” neutral-floor wins. It’s not clear that beating Florida State or Virginia in Greensboro would, by itself, get the job done. Better to pair a win like that with one over the Tar Heels at the Dean Dome.
There are two forms of suspense attached to the Orange in 2021. There is, of course, the question of whether Syracuse can lift itself out of its current “next four out” status and reach the NCAA tournament. In addition to that uncertainty, however, there’s the issue of whether this team will record a Quad 1 win this season. That answer can change, literally, daily. One day not long ago, NC State was ranked No. 75 in the NET, rendering the Orange’s win over the Wolfpack in February a Quad 1 win. The next day, Kevin Keatts’ group slipped to No. 76, and the game against Syracuse retroactively shifted into the Quad 2 category. There’s a similar spectator sport to be had with regard to the win at home over Clemson and whether the Tigers are above or below No. 30 on a given day. Grab some popcorn and watch those rankings.
Big 12
Locks: Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is shown here as a “lock” to make the tournament. OSU is appealing an NCAA ruling that would prohibit the men’s basketball team from postseason play. As long as that appeal is still under consideration by the NCAA, this season’s team would be allowed to participate in the tournament.
Big East
Should be in
A late-season charge has lifted the Huskies all the way to coveted “should be in” status. UConn has won five of its past six, a trend that commenced even before James Bouknight returned to action from his elbow injury. Now, with a full rotation at his disposal, Dan Hurley has seen his team record three consecutive victories by double-digit margins. Powered by excellent offensive rebounding and by far the best defense in the Big East, the Huskies will likely soon be found in mock brackets as a No. 9 seed.
Work to do
If there’s one team that is really puzzling the committee right now, it might be Xavier. Wins over Oklahoma and Creighton are highly impressive. Yet the victory over the Bluejays came in the midst of a stretch in which the Musketeers have now lost four of their past six. Xavier’s NET ranking topped out in the high 40s even after taking down Creighton, but it will now slide back into the worrisome 50s. Travis Steele’s team was envisioned as a No. 11 seed prior to the loss at Georgetown. Now the Musketeers are hanging by a thread, and the season finale at Marquette takes on added importance.
When Bubble Watch last checked in on the Pirates, a forecast was made: “If up-and-coming teams elsewhere on the bubble keep winning, Seton Hall could be bumped out of the projected field entirely.” Silly Bubble Watch! That’s not what happened at all. Instead, the Pirates bumped themselves out of the projected field. Losing by 11 at home to UConn means that Seton Hall is now on the outside looking in. Kevin Willard’s team has a road date left at St. John’s and, win or lose, it’s safe to say that there will be work to be done for this team at the Big East tournament.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue
Should be in
Though the Terrapins’ remarkable late-season surge came to an end with a five-point loss at Northwestern, Mark Turgeon’s team has still dramatically improved its position in the span of just two weeks. Maryland wasn’t even in the projected field of 68, but then wins over Minnesota, Rutgers and Michigan State as well as two victories over Nebraska lifted the Terps all the way to a potential spot on the No. 9 line. Turgeon’s group has to take care of business at home against Penn State in the season finale, and then countless opportunities for seed-improving Quad 1 wins will await at the Big Ten tournament.
Work to do
You don’t often see a team being dismantled by Nebraska in 2020-21, but that’s what took place when Rutgers played a road date against the Cornhuskers. The 72-51 loss means the Scarlet Knights can say goodbye to the No. 8 seed they were carrying in bracket projections prior to the shellacking in Lincoln. Rutgers is now 9-10 in the Big Ten, and falling to Nebraska increases the likelihood that the Knights, with a game still to play at Minnesota, will finish the conference season at 9-11. That need not be a deal-breaker in terms of selection (see Oklahoma, Minnesota and Ohio State in 2019), but at a minimum, the Knights have made this a more interesting situation.
If you’re right on the edge between being in and out of the field, as Michigan State is, you could do worse than end the regular season with back-to-back games against a projected No. 1 seed. The Spartans dropped the first leg of their series against Michigan by 19 in Ann Arbor, and the rematch will occur in East Lansing on Sunday. A win would be self-evidently enormous for MSU, and, anyway, losses to an opponent as strong as the Wolverines aren’t going to harm one’s profile unduly. One more defeat would leave Michigan State at 14-12 and 8-12 in the Big Ten. That second mark, at least, was good enough for Ohio State to earn a No. 11 seed in 2019.
The Hoosiers have lost four straight, and this stretch has transformed Indiana’s season. Four games ago, IU was 7-7 in the Big Ten and shown in mock brackets as a No 10 seed. Now, Indiana is “first four out” material trending downward to “next four out.” The final game of the season for the Hoosiers will be at Purdue, and a win there is essential for IU to revive or even begin to revive any realistic hope of a bid. Archie Miller is winless against the Boilermakers as Indiana coach, and, from the Hoosiers’ perspective, it has never been more important for that streak to end.
Pac-12
Should be in
The Bruins played well for about 30 minutes at Oregon only to falter down the stretch and lose by eight. Jules Bernard was outstanding in a losing cause, ringing up a career-high 23 points on just 16 shots. Mick Cronin’s team entered the contest carrying a No. 9 seed in mock brackets and will now wrap up its regular season with a home game against USC. This is a team that could still capture a share of the Pac-12 title, but purveyors of mock brackets have yet to warm up to a profile that shows a victory at home over Colorado as the best win.
SEC
Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida
Should be in
The probability that LSU will face a top seed in the round of 32 (if the Tigers proceed that far) can now be termed high. Will Wade’s team has settled in comfortably as a No. 8 or No. 9 seed in mock brackets, and absent an SEC tournament win over Alabama or Arkansas, it’s probable LSU will stay right in that seeding neighborhood. Looking ahead, any No. 1 seed with an assistant coach who meets standards of due diligence in scouting is likely to be given pause by LSU. This has been the best offense in SEC play, one that makes its 2s and is incredibly careful with the ball despite playing at an accelerated pace.
Work to do
While the “last four in” and “first four out” claim the lion’s share of the attention, diligent students of the bubble know there’s precious knowledge to be gained among the “next four out” as well. This last category has been where you could find Ole Miss making occasional appearances these past few weeks. While losses over that time at home to Mississippi State and on the road to Vanderbilt weren’t necessarily terrible, they didn’t help boost the profile, either. Now, however, one home victory over Kentucky later, the Rebels are back, with a NET ranking in the 50s and stories to tell the committee about beating Tennessee and scoring a season sweep over Missouri. Ole Miss will wrap up the regular season at home against the Commodores.
American
Locks: Houston
Work to do
With a win at home over Houston to its credit, Wichita State entered mock brackets in the last week of February as one of the last teams in the field. The Shockers have maintained that position ever since, and, barring a bad loss at the American tournament, Isaac Brown’s group might not get an opportunity to improve its projected seed to any significant extent. Any rematch with the Cougars, for example, could take place in the American title game, in which case another “big” victory over Kelvin Samson’s team would also hand WSU the automatic bid.
Maybe someday in the far off future the committee will be replaced entirely by a metric that measures how difficult it would be to duplicate any team’s wins and losses given the opponents and venues where that record was compiled. When that happens and “strength of record” (SOR), “wins above bubble” (WAB) or something similar is in the driver’s seat, it will be good news for SMU. In a SOR world, the 11-4 Mustangs would be a No. 10 seed. In the real world, however, Tim Jankovich’s men rank in the high 50s on the NET and inhabit the far outer fringes of the bubble. Keep winning, SMU.
Careful observers of mock brackets have watched with mounting interest these past few weeks as Memphis has climbed steadily closer to the cut line. The Tigers aren’t in the field yet, but they’re close enough to the last at-large bid to merit consideration here at Bubble Watch. With a NET ranking right around No. 60, Penny Hardaway’s team has one beautiful opportunity remaining at Houston. Needless to say, a road win against the Cougars is the richest prize, by far, the American has to offer. Capturing that prize could well lift Memphis up into the “last four in” or “first four out” territories.
Others
Locks: Gonzaga, BYU, Loyola Chicago, San Diego State
Work to do
Head coach Mark Schmidt is being “mentioned consistently” for the opening at Boston College, but before he considers or rejects any feelers his Bonnies have a shot at a single-digit seed. St. Bonaventure is shown in projected brackets on the No. 10 line, and Osun Osunniyi and company have reached the A-10 semifinals as the top seed in the conference tournament. The next opponent will be Saint Louis, and a win over the Billikens on a neutral floor would qualify as a Quad 1 victory. On the other hand, a loss would most likely land the Bonnies in the NCAA field as a double-digit seed.
Bones Hyland sat out two games with a foot injury and then returned for the Rams’ A-10 quarterfinal against Dayton. The sophomore was outstanding, recording a 30-10 double-double to go along with three steals. Having Hyland back and at full-speed is great news for a VCU team that was already playing conference tournament basketball in its home arena as a projected NCAA No. 11 seed. The Rams may need that home-court advantage. Their next opponent, would-be bid thief Davidson, looked pretty tough in rolling over George Mason 99-67.
The Bulldogs were scheduled to face Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament quarterfinals, but the game was canceled as an apparent result of COVID issues within the UNI program. Drake has been advanced to the semifinals at a time when Darian DeVries’ group is appearing in mock brackets as one of the last one or two teams in the field of 68. Other things being equal, a loss to any MVC opponent other than Loyola Chicago would likely knock DU out of the projected bracket. As for a loss to the Ramblers in the title game, that would occasion a long wait for a Selection Sunday decision that could go either way.
The Rams ended their regular season with an 85-82 loss at Nevada after the Wolf Pack’s Grant Sherfield hit a 3-pointer in the final seconds. The outcome qualifies as a Quad 2 defeat, and it capped off an intense stretch run where CSU played four games within seven days. Wins at home over Air Force (twice) and New Mexico were followed by the setback in Reno. Niko Medved’s team was projected as a No. 11 seed prior to the loss, and it’s probable Colorado State will now enter the Mountain West tournament forecast as one of the last teams in or first teams out of the field of 68.
After Craig Smith’s men lost two games at Boise State by a total of 13 points, the bubble outlook looked grim indeed. Then a funny thing happened. Projected Nos. 11 and 12 seeds started falling out of the bracket, while a few “first four out” and “next four out” programs also encountered difficulties in winning games. Meanwhile, USU was quietly taking care of business with three wins at home, two against Nevada and one against Wyoming. This combination of faltering competitors and steady performance on Utah State’s part has lifted the Aggies back into the picture. The 50-something NET ranking still looks adequate, and the “sweep” of San Diego State (both games were played in Logan, Utah) is still impressive. USU has a chance.
The “Quad 4 loss on the second day of March” thing is not a good look. Boise State was being projected as a No. 11 seed before losing at home by three points to Fresno State. Now BSU’s tournament fate is very much open to question. Prior to the loss, the Broncos seemed as “safe” as a team on the No. 11 line can be, meaning Boise State had appeared in the consensus projected field every day over the course of the past month. That streak in the “fake” bracket will likely end, and the previously top-35 NET ranking will take a hit. BSU is very much in need of a strong showing at the Mountain West tournament.
Since losing back-to-back road games at Dayton and VCU last month, SLU has reeled off three straight victories and reached the semifinals of the A-10 tournament. As the No. 4 seed in this bracket, Travis Ford’s men will now face top seed St. Bonaventure. Should the Billikens prevail there, they could move off the “first four out” list and into the projected field. No, moving into the projected field eight days out from Selection Sunday is not at all the same thing as being a lock. It does, however, beat the alternative, which would be a loss at the hands of the Bonnies and a substantial though not certain probability of not receiving an at-large bid.