Wisconsin’s final home game of the 2020-21 season is scheduled for Saturday afternoon, a pivotal Big Ten contest against Illinois in which the Badgers’ six scholarship seniors are set to be honored as part of the traditional “Senior Day” festivities.
Senior Day always brings the feels, but this year’s event will add a new dimension to the tapestry of emotions: uncertainty. No one knows whether this is actually Senior Day at Wisconsin, or anywhere else.
Back in October, the NCAA announced it was granting an additional year of eligibility to winter athletes because of disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, meaning every senior in college basketball is eligible to return to play next season. In theory, coach Greg Gard and Wisconsin could have all of the players they’re honoring on Saturday back from a team that has been inside the AP Top 25 all season.
Gard addressed it with the team when the NCAA made the announcement, but left it at that.
“I didn’t want it to be a distraction and fast-forward their thinking,” Gard told ESPN. “Everybody’s in a different spot. I will wait until the end of the season, gauge where everybody is.”
This reality, which will play out in college basketball programs from coast to coast, is the biggest unknown in what will be an unprecedented offseason of roster-building for college coaches. In addition to the “free year,” there’s the chance of a one-time transfer waiver being passed; the possibility the NBA draft is pushed from its traditional June window to August; and the probability of a name, image and likeness bill granting new rights to players — with all of this happening during an extended recruiting “dead” period where coaches can’t watch prospects, and recruits can’t take campus visits until at least June.
“We’re all in uncharted territory,” said Georgia Tech head coach Josh Pastner, who has four senior starters. “There’s no manual on how all this is handled. Everyone’s trying to figure it out.”
ESPN talked to more than a dozen coaches throughout the game to get a read on how they’ll manage these issues — and their rosters — in what will be an offseason like no other.
‘We would take them back, but we wouldn’t be head over heels about it’
In the moments that followed Rhode Island’s win over Dayton in the Rams’ final home game last week, star guard Fatts Russell was asked about his 2021-22 plans.
“I just want to finish this,” Russell told reporters, confirming he didn’t plan on using the extra season of eligibility. “I’m just going to go out there for the rest of this year and give it all.”
While the comments didn’t come as a surprise to URI head coach David Cox — especially since Russell had written “One last time in the Ryan center” in his Instagram story the day before — the two hadn’t had a real conversation to discuss a final decision on next season. And that’s not unique to Cox and Russell. Several coaches told ESPN this week they don’t know with certainty which seniors are leaving and which are coming back.
“I almost think it’s disrespectful to those young men [to discuss it],” Cox told ESPN. “It’s like talking to another player about next season. I want to make sure he stayed focused and I stayed focused. We gotta roll with the punches [in the] postseason either way. There’s all sorts of movement anyway. It’s been a free-for-all the last few summers.”
On the flip side, Missouri State received a boost for 2021-22 when senior forward Gaige Prim, one of the best players in the Missouri Valley Conference, announced on a radio show earlier this month that he planned to use the extra year of eligibility.
“Gaige and his family initiated those conversations. We didn’t have to approach him. They approached us,” Missouri State head coach Dana Ford told ESPN. “Obviously, we welcomed him back with open arms. They understand there’s a lot of uncertainty out there. There’s nothing wrong with another year of education, another year of development. It’s only his second year of Division I, and he was hurt last year. It was his and his family’s decision, and obviously we’re good with that. It’s the right thing to do for him.”
Outside of Russell and Prim, though, very few seniors have made their intentions known.
There is only one senior currently projected as a first-round pick in this year’s NBA draft, Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert. Five more — Iowa’s Luka Garza, Seton Hall’s Sandro Mamukelashvili, Alabama’s Herbert Jones, Louisville’s Carlik Jones and Oregon’s Chris Duarte — are projected by ESPN in the back half of the top 60.
Most coaches are expecting players in that group, those with a chance of being drafted, to leave for the professional ranks. So, no, the Wooden Award favorite Garza is not likely to return to Iowa next season.
“If you’re one of those guys and you’ve already graduated, you’re first-team all-league, you’ve already maxed out what you’re able to do as a [college] player, why not go and start your professional career?” one Big 12 coach said. “What are you coming back for? Go play and make some money.”
It’s not as simple as assuming that players with professional possibilities will all leave though. Most players in that group are 22 or 23 years old, an age considered a red flag for many NBA evaluators. Spending one more year in college, one played in front of fans and not beset by pandemic-related issues, could be a tantalizing option. Given that most of the names in the aforementioned group aren’t locks to be drafted, another year in college and the quest to win a national championship might be more attractive than going overseas or playing in the G-League. Those options will still be there in 2022.
“Those fringe guys should give it another shot,” one ACC coach said. “Listen to feedback people are telling you. The foreign market isn’t paying what it used to anyway. That’s going to be there in a year. … It’s unique to everyone. If you need money, go. But everybody had a weird summer, didn’t have the full benefit of the offseason. When games come around next season, they can perform better.”
Then there’s a group that most of Wisconsin and Georgia Tech’s starters fall into, those who are unlikely to be selected in the NBA draft, but are consistent contributors for good high-major teams. Coaches expect this is where we will see a real split between players who take advantage of the extra season and those who decide to go and start their post-college life.
“If you’re a player entrenched in a program, why not come back? Play another year and get your master’s and still be eligible to play the game you love,” one high-major assistant coach said. “Especially if you’re a local kid at the local school, you value the education, you’ve established yourself as one of the better kids in program history and you’re probably not an NBA guy, that could be something of interest.”
“It’s the college thing,” an SEC assistant coach countered. “The guys that have been through it a bit, do I really want to go through another year of classwork, getting up and lifting weights? There’s a little bit of burnout effect.”
Student-athletes who return next season will need to take credits toward a graduate degree if they’ve already graduated, or take undergraduate classes if they haven’t graduated. One coach told ESPN he has a senior who has been in college for five years and is just a few credits short of graduating, but doesn’t plan on coming back.
“He told me, ‘I’m so tired of school,’ the coach said. “And that’s OK.”
Just as some seniors who are wanted back will end up leaving, there will be seniors who coaches are counting on to leave and will want to return. “We would take them back, but we wouldn’t be head over heels about it,” one SEC coach said.
“You paint a little bit of a gray picture that it’s going to be difficult,” one mid-major head coach said with respect to players that programs will want to “run off.” “It really might be hard next year, you’re not gonna have as big a bite at the apple as you’ve had the last couple years.“
A financial burden … and uncomfortable conversations with recruits
Taking every senior back won’t be a huge deal for power conference programs, at least from a roster management standpoint. The NCAA isn’t counting returning seniors against the 13-scholarship limit next year, so some teams could carry 16 or more scholarship players on their rosters. But the financial aspect of that reality is going to be a factor for smaller programs. If five seniors decide to come back and leave a program four scholarships over the usual limit, that could cost an extra $200,000.
“The problem is we have to pay for them out of our budget,” one mid-major assistant said. “That’s going to be an issue for a lot of low- and mid-majors. It’s hard on budgets.”
The NCAA announced the extra year in mid-October 2020. By that time, plenty of 2021 recruits were already committed to schools. But roster situations in two months could be markedly different than what recruits expected when they signed letters of intent last fall.
One mid-major coach told ESPN his school lost an expected commitment because of the questions surrounding seniors.
“He committed to us two or three times on the phone,” the coach said. “As we got closer to his decision date, people got in his ear about our seniors, told him to get assurances they’re definitely not coming back. We could anticipate they wouldn’t come back, but we couldn’t give an assurance.”
Though Wisconsin’s four-player recruiting class is one that could have questions given the presence of six seniors who are eligible to return, Gard said he’s not overly concerned with that dynamic.
“We had three guys commit way early, before the pandemic, in the ’21 class,” Gard said. “They fit in regardless. They’re looking big-picture. Part of it is who’s able to play right away, but they didn’t come to Wisconsin for instant gratification. It was a big-picture decision.”
Seniors could also take advantage of the extra year — at another school. While those student-athletes would count toward the 13-scholarship limit at a different school, there will still be a market for them. Multiple coaches said they expect back-end starters or sixth men from high-major programs to look for alternatives next season, especially if their playing time could diminish with the addition of incoming freshmen or transfers.
“You’re going to have to have difficult conversations one way or another,” one Big East assistant told ESPN before the season. “Either the guy coming back, you tell him you’ve got a high school kid coming in and you lay out these are the minutes available. Or you gotta call the kid that signed and say, ‘We showed you this depth chart when you committed, but this person wants to come back for another year.’ Coaches are going to have to have very difficult decisions.”
Coaches to NCAA: Tell us what’s happening with transfers
One power-conference assistant recalls watching a mid-major college game on TV in his office this winter when his head coach walked in. After a few minutes during which a particular player impressed, the head coach spoke up.
“Hey, who’s his AAU coach? We have to get him.”
While seniors getting an extra year is unprecedented, it’s not the aspect of the offseason sparking the most conversation among coaches. Most industry sources expect the long-gestating one-time transfer waiver to be passed. The move would allow every player in college basketball to transfer one time without having to sit out a season, and could open the floodgates on transfer numbers. One coach guessed there could be at least 1,500 men’s college basketball players in the transfer portal, after 1,031 student-athletes entered in 2019-20.
“I’ve always had a potential grad transfer list, and this is the first time in five years I haven’t done one. With this one-time transfer thing, you’re wasting your time,” one power-conference assistant said. “There’s guys on teams that have known they’re gonna transfer for a while, then there’s others that are going to get a phone call at the end of the season.”
The one-time waiver legislation was originally expected to be passed last year, but the NCAA tabled the expected change because of the pandemic. To the frustration of coaches, the exact timetable for it to be reexamined is unknown.
“These are major life decisions, not only for coaching staffs but for student-athletes,” an ACC coach said. “We need to know now if guys have to sit out. Make a decision on this s—. Everybody’s in limbo. … It can’t be based on some waiver that’s going to go through sometime in August or September.”
The NCAA granted a blanket waiver in early December that allowed all remaining transfers to play immediately for 2020-21, an option that could be on the table for next season as well.
“Regardless if it doesn’t pass, I think it’ll revert back to the blanket waiver,” a Big Ten coach said. “My mindset is whoever’s incoming, they’re coming to play next year.”
Has the transfer market ended high school recruiting as we know it?
Assuming the one-time waiver legislation does pass, the landscape of recruiting could be substantially altered going forward. A number of coaches at both the high-major and mid-major levels told ESPN they’re putting far less emphasis on recruiting high schoolers and are instead focusing almost exclusively on the transfer portal — especially since coaches haven’t been able to watch high school prospects in person since last March because of the extended recruiting dead period.
“I have not talked to a high school kid in so long,” one Big 12 coach said. “I’m just waiting to see [which transfers are] entering the portal. It makes all the sense in the world to stay old. We’re looking at smaller conferences and finding guys that want to play at the high-major level.”
While power-conference coaches are rubbing their hands together in anticipation of the bloated transfer portal, mid-major coaches are dreading it — their programs are likely to suffer the most if a one-time transfer waiver passes.
One mid-major coach said he thinks most schools at his level are going to be less inclined in this environment to try and sneak a high school recruit from under the nose of a high-major program.
“Using a lot of resources to recruit kids that might go to Georgia? He’ll average 15 a game for us and then he’s leaving anyway,” he said. “Take the kid [transferring from] Georgia playing 10 minutes a game [instead]. If you take too many high school kids, you’re going to be building your team every year.”
But for some coaches, traditional program-building is getting thrown out the window.
“The days of thinking you have guys for two or three years are over,” one mid-major head coach said. “I love getting kids into our program and building them. But we don’t get the benefit, the reward for developing a kid and seeing his progress.”
Not everybody feels that way, however.
“I tell my staff, ‘Bring me all the guys the Power 5s want, I’ll deal with [the potential that they’ll transfer] later,'” a mid-major head coach said. “I’d rather have a roster full of guys that other guys want. Bring me every freshman of the year you can bring me, bring me every sophomore that averages 20 a game.”
The NCAA announced last week an extension to the recruiting dead period that’s been in place since the start of the pandemic, yet another wrinkle for this spring. The high school class of 2021 has not been seen in person for the final year-plus of their high school careers — not all high schools are even playing this winter — and most recruits haven’t stepped foot on the campus of the school to which they’re committed. For now, the dead period has been extended through the end of May, but the Division I Council said it will have an update on a potential return to in-person recruiting no later than April 15.
That could mean some uncommitted high school prospects and transfers ultimately decide to wait until June to make a decision, with the hope they can take campus visits before then. But as one mid-major head coach pointed out, it’s not going to be a level playing field. Just because the NCAA is allowing in-person recruiting doesn’t mean individual states or universities will allow visits.
“Even if they open that for us, I’m not sure our school will allow outside visitors,” he said. “We can’t have anyone from the outside come watch practice. Hopefully things keep improving by May 1 and June 1, or maybe they’ll extend [the dead period] further. But if it was an open period right now, we wouldn’t be allowed to have high school kids on campus. Would they have to get the vaccine? Would they have to test three times a week before coming? They’re not going to just let us bring someone else in from the outside and risk exposure.”
This has exacerbated the gap between transfers and high school recruits. There’s a risk in recruiting both, but there’s more information when it comes to transfers.
“We can’t go out and see kids face to face. I don’t want to watch him on film, I want to see him in person, want to talk to him in person,” a Big 12 coach said. “But when I look at a kid that played at the best [college] team in the league and had 29 points in a road win, that translates. Worst-case, they’re a role player for you. At the end of day, you’re going to take someone that’s more experienced. That’s the bottom line.”
One mid-major head coach said he’s received more emails than ever from high school prospects promoting themselves and hoping to earn a scholarship offer.
“There’s a little desperation,” he said. “I feel for the 2021 class. They’ve lost so much opportunity for exposure. There’s going to be a lot of players without opportunities.”
Late NBA draft decisions: ‘It’s a disaster’
On Aug. 17, 2020, just 16 days after announcing he would return to Arkansas, Razorbacks guard Isaiah Joe revealed he’d changed his mind and was leaving school to enter the NBA draft. Weeks earlier, Stanford went from a potential Pac-12 title contender to a borderline NCAA tournament team when Tyrell Terry kept his name in the draft. Michigan State took a massive hit when Xavier Tillman opted to remain in the draft. Delaware, Washington State and Mississippi State were similarly crushed by summer decisions that were largely a byproduct of a shifted NBA draft calendar.
It might not be much different this summer. With the NBA Finals scheduled to end in late July, the expectation is that we won’t see the NBA draft until sometime in August. That could mean a similar NCAA withdrawal deadline, and decisions made that impact programs with nobody left to pursue to replace the departing players.
“It’s a disaster,” one high-major coach said of the disadvantages schools have when losing a player that late in the offseason. “When you go into the middle of July or August, you’re counting on one hand guys that [are available to transfer] to other schools.”
“It’s always a concern,” a Big Ten coach said. “But you have to be realistic about kids staying in or not. And there’s variables we have no control of, but you have to go out and get a player that can help you. And if the kid in the draft comes back, you have to figure it out. I’m shocked at [other programs] not having that mindset. Always be prepared.”
There’s another elephant in the room: name, image and likeness legislation. It was originally expected to pass in January, but the NCAA Division I Council decided last month not to meet its own deadline, saying it needed more information before voting. There are high-level politics at stake; the leader of the U.S. Justice Department’s antitrust division sent a letter to Mark Emmert days before the scheduled vote on both name, image and likeness and transfer rules, expressing concerns about antitrust laws.
As ESPN’s Dan Murphy and Adam Rittenberg reported last month, though, there’s still an expectation both rules will change, and that college basketball players will ultimately be able to profit in some way from their names, images and likenesses.
But the delay makes it less likely it will become a real factor this offseason. There is little chance that NLI changes will provide any kind of meaningful counterpoint to stay-or-go pro decisions.
“I don’t think those conversations will happen the first time we go through it,” one high-major coach said of players opting to stay in school to make money in endorsements rather than go overseas for a year. “There’s so many unknowns. In three years, that’s going to be a hell of an option. But early on, there’s going to be way too many unknowns. Compliance departments are going to go into this a little bit conservative. I think it could hurt the kids experiencing it the first time.”
Postscript: This isn’t just a 2021 issue
Nobody knows what the landscape of college basketball is going to look like six months from now. Nobody knows if the one-time transfer waiver will pass this offseason, or whether the number of transfers lives up to the predictions. Maybe most seniors end up leaving college anyway, not taking advantage of the extra year of eligibility.
But the confluence of seniors returning, transfers being immediately eligible, a prolonged recruiting dead period, a delayed NBA draft and the potential of a name, image and likeness change has coaches anxiously entering the offseason.
And while seniors getting an extra year is a one-time thing for 2021 only, it will have an impact that will be felt for several years. Every player in college basketball this season will have an additional year of eligibility, meaning this season’s freshmen have four more seasons to play, through the 2024-25 season.
It’s hard enough for schools to keep 10 or 11 players happy, but with a full allotment of 13 or more scholarship players and nobody required to sit out and redshirt, there could be another record-setting number of transfers next season.
“It’s going to have a huge trickle-down effect,” one coach said. “Somewhere the market is going to get squeezed.”