On 4th-and-4 at the start of the second-quarter the Chiefs committed an error by punting, according to ESPN’s win probability model.
The Chiefs had a 39% chance to win by going for it, but a 38% by punting.
They needed a 40% chance of converting to justify going for it, and league average conversion rate is 46%. The Chiefs are also better than an average offense!
This article was originally published by Espn.com. Read the original article here.