ARLINGTON, Texas — By the time the Dallas Cowboys got home from Baltimore early in the morning on Dec. 9, they were a broken team.
They were emotionally spent from the sudden death of strength and conditioning coordinator Markus Paul on Nov. 25 and physically beaten down after the 34-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, their sixth defeat in seven games.
At 3-9, their season looked over from any angle possible. Tanking became a topic. A high first-round 2021 NFL draft pick seemed like a sure thing.
Their defense could not stop anyone. Their offense scored more than 17 points once in that seven-game span. Their special teams were making too many mistakes with some ill-timed decisions.
Now?
“We look totally different than we did two months ago,” Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said.
Close to two months ago — Nov. 1, actually — the Cowboys lost 23-9 to the Philadelphia Eagles, with rookie Ben DiNucci at quarterback, unable to score a touchdown.
On Sunday, they beat the Eagles 37-17 at AT&T Stadium with Andy Dalton throwing three touchdown passes. It was their third consecutive victory, putting them in position to make the playoffs with a 6-9 record entering the season finale at the New York Giants (5-10).
Playoffs? Are you talking about the playoffs?
After their Week 13 loss to the Ravens, the Cowboys had a 0.9% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football power Index (FPI).
After their win against the Cincinnati Bengals on Dec. 13, their percentage dipped to 0.8%.
The victory against the San Francisco 49ers upped those chances to 4%, and even now, ESPN forecasts their chances of qualifying at 16%.
To do what was unthinkable, the Cowboys need to beat the Giants and have the Eagles (4-10-1) beat the Washington Football Team (6-9) next week. If that happens, a 7-9 record would win the NFC East for the Cowboys and they would host a wild-card playoff game in McCarthy’s first season.
“It’s back there in the back of your mind, but it’s still you just never really know,” Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup said. “It was a tough go there for a little bit. A lot of folks weren’t really thinking [playoffs]. We weren’t exactly thinking it. You’re still going to practice and play for it, but you weren’t exactly thinking it. So, I guess that’s the best way to put it.”
But how did the Cowboys get here and what does it mean for Sunday’s game against the Giants?
They followed two tenets of winning football.
Protecting the ball
As frustrated as McCarthy was about his first season with the Cowboys, what angered him most was the Cowboys’ turnovers. In Green Bay, his teams rarely gave games away with interceptions and lost fumbles. In 11 of the first 12 games, the Cowboys had at least one turnover. Running back Ezekiel Elliott lost five fumbles. Dalton had at least one interception in each of his first five starts.
In the three-game winning streak, the Cowboys have one turnover, a Dalton interception when he forced a pass down the seam to Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb against the Eagles.
“It’s huge,” McCarthy said of turnover margin. “It’s the No. 1 statistical component of our success. I’ve always felt that way. It’s going the way it’s supposed to go.”
Taking the ball away
Let’s not pretend the Cowboys have fixed their defensive issues. They have allowed more points (450) this season than any other in franchise history. They entered the Philadelphia game having allowed the second-most rushing yards (2,265) in a season and allowed the Eagles to rush for 151 yards.
They would need a complete collapse against the Giants to allow the most rushing yards in team history. In 2000, they allowed 2,636 yards.
But what the Cowboys have done a better job of is creating turnovers. In their past three games, the Cowboys have 10 takeaways, recovering six fumbles and intercepting four passes. The most recent time a Dallas defense forced at least three turnovers in three straight games was in 2014.
“Guys are making plays,” said defensive end Randy Gregory, who had 1.5 sacks, six tackles, three forced fumbles, two quarterback hurries and a pass deflection Sunday. “Guys are stepping up. It’s not like we don’t have that ability. It’s always been there.”
As the defeats piled up throughout the season, the Cowboys continuously said they had everything in front of them. It never felt more hollow than after the Baltimore loss, but it remained true because of the pitiful shape of the rest of the division.
They clung to that hope.
“If you gave up five, six weeks ago, you shouldn’t even … we wouldn’t want you on our sideline,” Elliott said. “We’re competitors. We’re a team of competitors. I mean we weren’t out of it.”
And now they’re almost in it. Almost.
To do all of this work and lose to the Giants would be crushing. It would be even worse if Washington were to lose to the Eagles and still win the division despite a 6-10 record.
“It’s a long season and for sure we just had to push through some tough stretches we had this season,” Dalton said. “At the end of the day, you want to be playing your best ball in December, going into January. For us, it seems like we’re doing that right now.”