Years ago, UFC events were not just numbered, but also titled. The promotion doesn’t do that anymore, but if the practice were still in place, Saturday’s fight card in Jacksonville, Florida — the promotion’s first since March 14 — might be called UFC 249: The Return of Fighting.
The story of UFC 249 isn’t just about the return of the sport, though. It’s a chance for the UFC to seize a moment at a time when people around the world are looking for entertainment. This card was built to provide just that.
“The card’s just so deep,” said Chael Sonnen, co-host of Ariel & The Bad Guy and a three-time UFC title challenger. “For a new fan that doesn’t know the stories behind the fights, they’re just going to enjoy a good night of action. But for the hardcore fans, this is an absolute treat. I gotta say: Do we even deserve this? As fight fans, have we done anything good enough to deserve a card this loaded?”
We’ve waited long enough, Chael. We do deserve it. Let’s talk about those stories.
In the main event, Tony Ferguson faces Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight title. Ferguson is an unpredictable action fighter on a 12-fight win streak. Gaethje is known as “The Highlight” because of his, well, highlight-reel finishes.
“You’re going to see two fighters in the main event. Two real fighters, not point fighters. Guaranteed to have fireworks,” said Gilbert Melendez, a UFC fighter and analyst. “We may not see a knockout right away, we may not even have a huge war, but we aren’t going to have two guys stalling and looking at each other and giving us a boring fight. If you want to see a real fight, you’re going to see one with Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje.”
Ben Askren, who retired from the UFC last year, says the style of this fight is what makes it can’t-miss.
“Ferguson vs. Gaethje is going to be outstanding,” Askren says. “They both come forward, they both do a lot of damage to their opponent, both have very little regard for defense.”
Much of the discourse leading up to this fight has been on the potential for action and thrills. There also have been some concerns expressed, though, especially with the fight being postponed last month. Sonnen is here to tell you not to worry.
“We’re all going, ‘Tony depleted his body; he shouldn’t have done that,'” Sonnen said of Ferguson’s determination to make weight on April 17. “But Tony was a collegiate wrestler, a national champion, and in wrestling you weigh in every single week through the course of a season. Tony’s just going back to his roots. So I totally disagree with the argument that him cutting weight three weeks ago was a mistake. I don’t know if it will factor into the fight at all, but I do disagree with the argument that he shouldn’t have done that. That’s just what he was used to doing. Weighing in three times a year is weird in Tony’s world. Weighing in 15 times a year is what he’s used to doing.”
The delay also gave Gaethje extra time to prepare. “Back when he took the fight on short notice, Justin’s own words were, ‘I have to stop this guy. If we go the distance, he’s winning. I’m just not going to be able to win those later rounds,'” recalled Sonnen. “Those were his own words. You give him an extra three weeks, that changes everything.”
The co-main event features “Triple C,” Henry Cejudo, defending the UFC’s bantamweight title against the man many consider to be GOAT of the division, Dominick Cruz. Cejudo has an Olympic gold medal in freestyle wrestling and became a two-division UFC champ last year. Cruz hasn’t fought in three and a half years, but he’s finally healthy and ready to become a bantamweight champion for the third time.
“Cejudo vs. Cruz has the makings of an upset written all over it,” Sonnen said. “Henry is the better wrestler, for sure, but when’s the last time you saw him use his wrestling in a fight? He always has had a hard time closing the distance, and Dominick is so good at keeping the distance, using that footwork, making you work. Henry’s got good hands, but the only time Dominick’s ever been hurt in a standup fight is against Cody Garbrandt. If you threw that fight out, you’d have no frame of reference of Dominick ever being beaten on his feet. “I don’t know if I’m ready to call for an upset. History says the younger guy that’s more active beats the older guy who’s been sitting out, but boy it’s very easy to see the fight going all 25 minutes and Dominick Cruz winning three or four of those rounds.”
The depth of this card extends far beyond the title fights.
“Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a heavyweight fight between two guys who pack a strong punch, a bunch of power. It has potential for fireworks,” Melendez says. “This is one of those ‘don’t blink’ fights. You’ll be on the edge of your seat. Maybe it’ll seem at first that not a lot of things are going on, but once things happen, it’s going to be explosive.”
Then there are the undercard fights that are sure to make fans out of any viewer: Jeremy Stephens vs. Calvin Kattar and Niko Price vs. Vicente Luque.
“Anyone that’s willing to stand with Jeremy Stephens is OK in my book. Stephens is nasty,” Sonnen said. “And this Kattar, he’s so good and he’s so mean, he’s in great shape, he can fight the whole 15 minutes. You might think, well, yeah, everyone can. No, they can’t. A lot of guys are just hanging in; there’s a lot of guys faking it. I mean, to be on a sprint for 15 minutes, it takes a very rare athlete. This guy Kattar can go all night. That’s a great, great, great fight.”
“One fight not super-highlighted is Niko Price vs. Vicente Luque. I’m so excited for that one,” Melendez said. “Luque is a disciplined fighter — a tough fighter, but disciplined. And Price is a little bit reckless. Both are equally savage in the cage. I don’t know if it’s going to be “fight of the night,” but that’s one I’m going to buckle up for and go on the roller-coaster ride with.”
The fights start at 6 p.m. on ESPN. Grab your food and drinks early, buckle up and get comfy. It’s going to be a fun night.
Interim lightweight championship:
Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje
By the numbers
8.57: Significant strikes landed per minute in the UFC by Gaethje, the most ever in the promotion. However, he also absorbs a UFC-record 9.67 significant strikes per minute.
0: Gaethje fights in the UFC for which he was not awarded a postfight bonus. Between fight of the night and performance of the night, he has seven bonuses, the most in a fighter’s first six UFC appearances.
1: Takedown attempt in the UFC by Gaethje, despite being an All-American college wrestler. He lands 99.5% of his significant strikes while standing, and 93.2% of Ferguson’s come while he’s on his feet.
35: Percentage of Gaethje’s significant strikes that target the legs, the second-highest rate among active UFC fighters with at least 350 significant strike attempts. Joanne Calderwood is first (38%).
12: Consecutive victories for Ferguson, tying him with his original opponent, Khabib Nurmagomedov, for the longest active streak in the UFC. A win over Gaethje would tie Ferguson with Georges St-Pierre, Jon Jones, Demetrious Johnson and Max Holloway for the second-longest streak in UFC history, behind Anderson Silva (16).
Sources: ESPN Stats & Information and UFC Stats
Five vs. five
Tony Ferguson’s most recent results
Win: Donald Cerrone (TKO2, June 8, 2019; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Anthony Pettis (TKO2, Oct. 6, 2018; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Kevin Lee (SUB3, Oct. 7, 2017; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Rafael Dos Anjos (UD, Nov. 5, 2016)
Win: Lando Vannata (SUB2, July 13, 2016)
Justin Gaethje’s most recent results
Win: Donald Cerrone (TKO1, Sept. 14, 2019; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Edson Barboza (KO1, March 30, 2019; watch on ESPN+)
Win: James Vick (KO1, Aug. 25, 2018)
Loss: Dustin Poirier (TKO4, April 14, 2018; watch on ESPN+)
Loss: Eddie Alvarez (KO3, Dec. 2, 2017; watch on ESPN+)
Gil & Ben’s film study
Gilbert Melendez on how Ferguson threatens from his back:
Melendez on how Gaethje closes distance:
Brett Okamoto’s prediction
Man, certain fights are just impossible to predict, and for that this one takes the cake. How does one predict the outcome of a fight that should be nonstop action between two of the biggest risk-takers in the sport? I am split right down the middle on this fight, but if I have to make a pick, I guess I’m basically forced to go with Ferguson’s advantages of a full camp and the momentum of a 12-fight win streak. So, full disclaimer, I have no confidence in this prediction, but I’ll go Ferguson by TKO, fourth round.
Before we move on: Who has the best moves?
History will be made — no matter who wins.
If Cejudo wins … he will join Daniel Cormier (heavyweight, light heavyweight) as the only fighters in UFC history to successfully defend titles in multiple weight class. Cejudo is the former flyweight champion.
If Cruz wins … he will join Randy Couture (heavyweight) as the only fighters in UFC history to win a belt three times in the same weight class. Cruz won the newly created bantamweight title in 2010 but had to vacate due to injuries and inactivity. He won the belt again, beating TJ Dillashaw in January 2016, defended it once and then lost to Cody Garbrandt that December. He has not fought since.
By the numbers
1,226: Days it will have been, on fight night, since Cruz last competed. It is the second-longest layoff for a title fight challenger in UFC history, behind only the 1,449 days Georges St-Pierre was out before becoming middleweight champ in 2017.
1: Successful takedowns (in 11 career attempts) against Cejudo, a 2008 Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling. He has spent just 13 seconds in bottom position in his career — 0.06% of his total Octagon time, second-lowest percentage in UFC history (min. five fights).
70.9: Percentage of strike attempts evaded by Cruz, the ninth-best striking defense all time among qualified UFC fighters.
4: Fighters who have held UFC title belts in multiple weight classes simultaneously: Conor McGregor, Daniel Cormier, Amanda Nunes and Cejudo.
21:00: Average fight time in the UFC for Cruz, in minutes and seconds, the longest in promotion history.
Sources: ESPN Stats & Information and UFC Stats
Five vs. five
Henry Cejudo’s most recent results
Win: Marlon Moraes (TKO3, June 8, 2019; watch on ESPN+)
Win: TJ Dillashaw (TKO1, Jan. 19, 2019; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Demetrious Johnson (SD, Aug. 4, 2018; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Sergio Pettis (UD, Dec. 2, 2017)
Win: Wilson Reis (TKO2, Sept. 9, 2017)
Dominick Cruz’s most recent results
Loss: Cody Garbrandt (UD, Dec. 30, 2016; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Urijah Faber (UD, June 4, 2016; watch on ESPN+)
Win: TJ Dillashaw (SD, Jan. 17, 2016; watch on ESPN+ )
Win: Takeya Mizugaki (KO1, Sept. 27, 2014; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Demetrious Johnson (UD, Oct. 1, 2011)
Gil & Ben’s film study
Ben Askren on Cejudo’s wresting:
Melendez on Cruz’s unique movement:
Brett Okamoto’s prediction
Cruz could be a real problem for Cejudo. I know he’s had trouble staying healthy over the course of his career, but in a fight, actually, he’s very durable and difficult to hurt. He’s hard to prepare for, in that he’s big for the division but not worried about conserving energy. He can go all day. I don’t see Cejudo’s wrestling being an X factor in this fight. I think it’s a standup matchup, and Cruz’s length, unorthodox style, cardio, fight IQ — all of that makes him a tough challenger here. But all that said, I’m still picking the defending champ to find a way. Cejudo by decision.
Bits ‘n’ pieces
-
Fabricio Werdum is a former UFC heavyweight champion and among the most decorated grapplers to transition into MMA: He has six world championships, between the grappling world and Abu Dhabi Combat Club World Championships, and 13 total medals from those elite competitions. And look who Werdum is facing in the prelims: Aleksei Oleinik, a fellow master of the tapout game. Oleinik has 42 submissions among his 58 career victories. There have been only two Ezekiel choke submissions in UFC history — both by Oleinik.
-
Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is truly a heavyweight clash. Ngannou (14-3) has won three straight fights, all by first-round knockout. Overall, he has six career KOs in the first round, tying him with Derek Brunson for the most in the UFC since 2015. Meanwhile, Rozenstruik (10-0) is 4-0 in the UFC with four KO/TKO wins. He is looking to become just the fourth fighter in promotion history with knockout wins in his first five UFC fights (Don Frye 6, Junior Dos Santos 5, Ricco Rodriguez 5).
-
The welterweight prelim between Vicente Luque and Niko Price has the potential for early fireworks. Luque is 10-4 in the UFC, with nine finishes — six in the first round. Price has fought 10 times in the UFC and has never seen a third round. That makes him one of just two fighters in the modern UFC era to see each of his first 10 fights end in the first two rounds. (The other is James Irvin.)
-
Yorgan De Castro, who faces Greg Hardy in a heavyweight bout, is 6-0 (5 KOs) in his pro MMA career — after going 2-4 as an amateur.
-
When Jeremy Stephens steps in to face featherweight Calvin Kattar, it will be his 33rd UFC fight, one shy of the record shared by Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller. Stephens does own one record: His 15-16-1 UFC mark gives him three more losses than any other fighter in the promotion. He is on a 0-3-1 slide.