Two weeks ago was the 50th anniversary of The Rumble in the Jungle, and all of the bouquets being laid at the feet of that classic heavyweight championship boxing match between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman got me thinking about — of all things — this weekend’s heavyweight championship fight at UFC 309.
What’s the connection? It has to do with how diminished expectations don’t always foreshadow reality.
Ali’s upset of Foreman is remembered today as one of the fight game’s greatest moments. Still, going into the 1974 bout, it was almost universally expected to be a massacre by “Big George,” the brawny, destructive, undefeated 25-year-old champion. Ali was 3½ years removed from his championship run and was 32. If he was still floating like a butterfly, it was a sluggish, less elusive float that seemed destined to be swatted down by one of Foreman’s sledgehammer fists.
The Hall of Fame boxing public relations man Bill Caplan, who worked the event, famously said, “People were praying before the fight that Ali doesn’t get killed.”
And then Ali went out and shocked every one of those people.
Now, no one is suggesting that Saturday’s UFC 309 main event between champion Jon Jones and former champ Stipe Miocic (ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET) is comparable in magnitude to one of the most iconic sporting events of the past half-century. Where the two fights do align, though, is that the one this weekend at Madison Square Garden in New York also has its doubters, lots of them.
Miocic is 42 years old and has not fought since March 2021, when Francis Ngannou knocked him out to take away the UFC title. And in the years since then, the heavyweight division has been in flux. Ngannou left in 2022 to pursue his dream of pro boxing, and when he returned to MMA this year, it was in the PFL. To fill the void in the UFC, Jones moved up from light heavyweight, where he had dominated for a decade, and in March 2023, he won the vacant title in his heavyweight debut against Ciryl Gane. But that was over a year and a half ago, and the champ has been idle — partially due to injury — ever since.
The heavyweight to watch during all this time has been Tom Aspinall. Since the last time we saw Miocic, Aspinall has won five fights, all by finish, all in the first round. And yet, on Saturday, the Brit will be just sitting and watching. In his possession will be a UFC interim title belt, a trinket whose sole purpose is to set up a champ-vs.-champ unification bout. That’s the fight that’ll truly settle matters in the heavyweight division, but for now, the focus is on a legacy.
What the UFC 309 main event will deliver is a monumental dose of history. Jones is the consensus greatest MMA fighter of all time in any weight class. Miocic is the most accomplished UFC heavyweight ever, an indisputable status he earned by making a record three consecutive title defenses. Three might not seem like a big number, but none of the belt-wearing heavyweight luminaries of the past reached it — not Ngannou or Cain Velasquez, Brock Lesnar or Randy Couture.
So, the ingredients are there for a Rumble-like shocker. Can Miocic dust off his old form and reclaim the title that once was his? Or will this be yet another show of supremacy to add to the glorious Jones résumé? That is the weekend’s headlining storyline, but there are others. Here are five questions for UFC 309 to answer.
1. Does it matter that this main event didn’t occur five years ago?
Heavyweight championship: Jon Jones (c) vs. Stipe Miocic
Imagine if Jones and Miocic met in, say, the summer of 2019. Miocic had just secured his second heavyweight reign by knocking out Daniel Cormier. Jones was in the midst of his second run as light heavyweight champ, having already made 10 title defenses. Both men were active and at the top of their game. It would have been a true superfight.
That is not the reality of today, of course, but the heavyweight division is one that enables aging fighters to discover a fountain of youth. Couture won the UFC title at age 44, and Cormier held it at 40. Miocic was just a few months shy of age 39 the night he lost the strap to Ngannou. So while a title matchup like Saturday’s, between a 37-year-old champion and 42-year-old challenger, wouldn’t fly at flyweight, it can work at heavyweight. This division is ruled by the sustainable attributes of power and sturdiness, where speed matters, but one can compensate for its diminishment.
2. Shall we waltz again since your dance partner stood you up?
Lightweight: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2
This rematch of a 2021 bout that ended with an Oliveira knockout is the only other fight that pits star versus star. The appeal might be diminished because we’ve already seen this matchup play out decisively. Still, if you saw Oliveira-Chandler 1, you witnessed a captivating back-and-forth tussle for the vacant lightweight title.
What are the stakes this time? That’s unclear, especially for Oliveira, as champ Islam Makhachev appears to be lined up to defend next against Arman Tsarukyan, who was last seen defeating Oliveira in April.
At stake for Chandler? Money, lots of it. If he loses to Oliveira, he can say goodbye to the fight he spent two idle years holding out for. If Conor McGregor returns, he isn’t going to want to do so against an opponent coming off four defeats in his past five fights. That makes this a high-risk roll of the dice for Chandler.
3. Are there grounds for optimism that we’ll see a real fight?
Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
This fight will probably be a blowout — the ESPN BET oddsmakers certainly expect it to be, installing Nickal as a -1300 betting favorite. But there is one area of intrigue, and that area is on the mat. Just six fights into his MMA career, Nickal is working on rounding out his game, but his go-to remains the smothering wrestling that made him a three-time NCAA Division I national champion. Going to the canvas has been a problem for Nickal’s past opponents, but a grappling match would play right into Craig’s strength, as the Scotsman has 13 submissions among his 17 victories.
Then again, victories of any kind have been hard to come by lately for Craig, who has lost four of his past five. Can he put up a fight even if this one goes to his wheelhouse, or will he be just one more steppingstone in Nickal’s ascent in the sport?
4. Will anyone ever feel as much at home in the Octagon?
Lightweight: Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson
Saturday’s contest versus Jackson will be Miller’s 45th fight in the UFC, extending a record he will own for many years to come. The closest to him among active fighters are Clay Guida and Rafael dos Anjos, with 36 fights apiece, and Guida is 42 years old, Dos Anjos is 40. They’re not catching up. Miller, whose 26 wins also are a UFC record, has been fighting inside the Octagon since 2008, and he’s never been anything less than entertaining. Why stop watching now?
5. Do all roads end in New York?
Middleweight: Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
Those who don’t know New York might think of UFC 309 as a homecoming for Jon Jones. It is not. He is from the upstate village of Endicott, a drive of three hours-plus from Madison Square Garden. However, this event is a homecoming for Weidman, who was born, bred and until recently lived in Baldwin, a short ride from midtown Manhattan on the Long Island Railroad. Weidman is a true local hero, a two-time NCAA Division I All-America wrestler at nearby Hofstra.
Weidman produced one of the most stunning dethronings in UFC history, knocking out Anderson Silva to end a starry seven-year reign. But that was in 2013, and the 40-year-old has struggled in the past decade, losing seven of his past 10 bouts. Weidman hasn’t said he’s retiring, but with this being a hometown fight, is there a more fitting end?