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Eric Moody, ESPN
The rivalry between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren surpassed all expectations last season, giving NBA fans another classic big-man showdown that might just carry the torch from Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic. NBA history is loaded with iconic matchups like these, from Bill Russell vs. Wilt Chamberlain to Tim Duncan vs. Kevin Garnett. Now, it looks like Wembanyama and Holmgren are ready to add their names to that list.
Last season, they went head-to-head three times, with the Thunder winning two of those games. Wembanyama averaged 20.0 PPG, 13.0 RPG and 3.7 BPG, while Holmgren put up 16.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG and 1.7 BPG in their matchups. They finished first and second in Rookie of the Year voting, and Wembanyama landed second in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
What makes this rivalry even more interesting? These two have known each other’s game since before they got to the NBA. Holmgren represented Team USA’s Under-19 squad at the FIBA World Cup in Latvia in July 2021, playing with other future NBA stars. The gold-medal game saw USA face France, where Holmgren and Wembanyama squared off for the first time. Although they entered the NBA in different draft classes — Holmgren missing his first year with a foot injury — their paths are already intertwined.
Wembanyama and Holmgren meet again for the first time this season on Wednesday night in Oklahoma City. Here are some futures bets to make on both players this season.
Two futures bets to make on Chet Holmgren
Holmgren to win Defensive Player of the Year (+350)
Now, while Victor Wembanyama got a lot of attention last season for his defensive talent, don’t sleep on Holmgren. The Thunder selected him No. 2 overall in 2022 for his defensive impact. Last season, Holmgren averaged 8.0 RPG and 2.3 BPG in just under 30 minutes per game, and he played all 82 games.
This season, he’s taken it up a notch: 13.0 RPG and 4.0 BPG in about 33 minutes per game over three games. But here’s what’s key for voters-narratives matter. Oklahoma City won 57 games last season, finished top-four in defensive rating, and went deep in the playoffs. The Thunder’s success and strong defensive identity could play a major role in Holmgren’s case, especially since teams that excel defensively helps their player’s chance for winning the award. The last Defensive Player of the Year winner from outside a top-10 defensive team since 2001? That was Marcus Camby back in 2007. The Thunder’s success story could be a big part of Holmgren’s DPOY push.
Holmgren to win Most Improved Player (+1800)
The Most Improved Player market is one of the hardest to predict. But, as Sun Tzu said, “In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.” Since the 2019-20 season, every winner of this award also made their first All-Star appearance that same year. Over the past two decades, most winners showed significant increases in points, rebounds and assists per game. More than half were primary starters both the year they won and the year before.
Holmgren is on track for that type of jump, potentially making All-Star noise in the Western Conference, especially if the Thunder can make a push for the No. 1 seed. Last season, he averaged 16.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and 2.3 BPG. This season, he’s up to 23.7 PPG, 13.0 RPG, and 4.0 BPG. It’s only three games, but this is a prime spot to add a few units to this bet.
Two futures bets to make on Victor Wembanyama
Wembanyama rebounds per game leader (+850)
Wembanyama made history Monday night against the Houston Rockets, becoming the fourth Spur ever to record 20 rebounds and five assists in multiple games. He joins legends Tim Duncan, David Robinson and Dennis Rodman in that exclusive club. However, Wembanyama has only had one game with double-digit rebounds so far this season, which makes this a great time to consider this bet.
So far this season, Wembanyama has averaged 12.0 RPG in 31.0 MPG. The only players ahead of him are Rudy Gobert (12.3), Alperen Sengun (12.5), Chet Holmgren (13.0), Andre Drummond (13.0) and Ivica Zubac (14.0).
His offseason strength training is already paying off, but it’s his mental growth that stands out, particularly his hustle and competitiveness. This is important because Wembanyama will be leaned on heavily in the rebounding department with Zach Collins as his only support on the roster.
Wembanyama top points scorer on Christmas Day (+2200)
The Knicks will host the reigning Rookie of the Year and the Spurs on Dec. 25. Wembanyama had his best rookie performance against the Knicks last season, dropping 40 points and stockpiling 20 boards in San Antonio. Now he’s back at Madison Square Garden for Christmas, looking for redemption after a tough first outing there.
Last season, Mitchell Robinson held Wembanyama to an inefficient 14 points on 4-of-14 shooting. But Robinson is sidelined with an ankle injury and will be out for the rest of the calendar year, per ESPN’s Shams Charania. Wembanyama will instead face Knicks offseason addition Karl-Anthony Towns, who doesn’t have the same defensive reputation as Robinson. Bettors should consider a play on Wembanyama here, as visiting stars often put on a show at Madison Square Garden.