In a week that brought much chaos, with five Top 25 programs losing to unranked teams, it’s time to realize that our College Football Playoff 12-team field will include teams with one, two, maybe even three losses this season. If a team with multiple losses can win its conference, it’s still in the CFP race.
Indiana is having its best start to the season, holding a 6-0 record for the first time in 57 years under first-year coach Curt Cignetti. As it becomes the first team to become bowl-eligible, what are the Hoosiers doing right this season?
The Big 12 has proved to be the conference most up in the air at the moment. With five teams still undefeated in conference play, no program stands out as the favorite to take the Big 12 title and CFP first-round bye.
Our college football experts break down key takeaways from what was an unforgettable Week 6.
Get ready for two-loss CFP contenders
Everyone in and around college football has to retrain their brains to accept losses in the era of the 12-team College Football Playoff. Blueblood programs USC and Michigan already have two losses (including USC’s loss to Michigan), but in the new, expanded format, there are going to be two-loss teams included in the field on Selection Day. Maybe even a three-loss team.
(The selection committee has never ranked a four-loss team in its top 12.)
So while some teams have bad losses (Alabama and Notre Dame), and others have multiple losses (hey, Tulane!) any team that can still win its conference is technically still in the race. What hasn’t changed in the committee meeting room, though, is the standard. Even teams with multiple losses need statement wins and have to look like a team capable of winning the national title. — Heather Dinich
Cignetti, Indiana a model for programs seeking turnarounds
Indiana‘s first 6-0 start since 1967, under a first-year coach in Curt Cignetti, carries a natural element of shock. The Hoosiers simply don’t do this, regardless of who is leading their program. But what stood out to me in watching Indiana become the nation’s first — and, amazingly, only — bowl-eligible team is how unfazed the team looks. Indiana is exceptionally well-coached by Cignetti and his staff. The offense is undeniably legitimate, from quarterback Kurtis Rourke to wide receiver Elijah Sarratt to a barrage of backs to an offensive line that doesn’t get nearly enough credit. Indiana is a machine right now, built by Cignetti, through mostly veteran transfers who understand their roles, the schemes and don’t flinch.
Programs that are trying to flip their fortunes in the transfer portal/NIL era should model themselves after Indiana, which found a veteran, proven coach in Cignetti and armed him with the resources to completely change the roster in one offseason. Indiana might not be a true CFP contender — its second-half schedule includes Ohio State, Nebraska, Washington and Michigan — but the team is not a fluke and is likely the envy of many. — Adam Rittenberg
The O has left Oklahoma State
With 10 returning starters on an offense that produced the Doak Walker Award winner last year, the Cowboys entered this season with hopes of contending for a spot in the playoff.
Instead, Oklahoma State’s offense has inexplicably collapsed during a three-game losing streak.
Ollie Gordon II led the nation with 1,732 rushing yards last year, as the Pokes advanced to the Big 12 title game. This season, he ranks 209th, averaging just 3.8 yards on his 101 carries. The offensive line has been incapable of opening up running lanes for Gordon, while a dreadful passing attack behind seventh-year quarterback Alan Bowman has failed to capitalize on loaded boxes.
Mike Gundy has a bye week to shake things up and try to salvage the season. Otherwise, Oklahoma State could finish with its first losing record since Gundy’s first season as head coach 19 years ago. — Jake Trotter
Good luck making Big 12 predictions
Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham has coached in only two Big 12 games, but he has seen enough to arrive at perhaps the best description yet for his new conference.
“It’s the ultimate league of, ‘Did you see that score?'” Dillingham said recently.
If you want to appreciate the unpredictable nature of this new 16-team edition of the Big 12, just check the conference standings. There are five teams that have yet to lose a conference game. Those teams were picked to finish 6th, 7th, 9th, 11th and 13th in the league’s preseason media poll.
Iowa State and BYU are still undefeated and among the biggest beneficiaries of all the Saturday chaos at the top of the polls, rising to No. 11 and No. 14 respectively in the new AP Top 25. Texas Tech is off to a 3-0 start in conference play after a late-night road win at Arizona. West Virginia started the year 1-2, but just dominated Oklahoma State in Stillwater. And Dillingham’s Sun Devils pulled off one of the best wins of his tenure, a last-minute comeback to defeat Kansas.
The struggles of the Jayhawks (1-5) and Cowboys (3-3) have been genuinely surprising given all the talent they returned for 2024, and TCU (3-3) is heading in the wrong direction. But that’s the nature of this conference: Evenly matched teams, close games and upsets aplenty.
As we approach the midpoint of the first Big 12 season without Texas and Oklahoma, you can’t point to one program and confidently say it’s going to run the league going forward. Seven weeks in, it sure seems like anybody can make it to Arlington and grab the CFP bid. — Max Olson
Not too early to start thinking about Aggies-Longhorns
Picture it: One-loss Texas A&M hosting a top-five Texas team at Kyle Field on the final weekend of the regular season, resuming a 130-year-old rivalry on Nov. 30 with College Football Playoff stakes attached.
We’ve still got a long way to go. But there could be a classic brewing when the Aggies and Longhorns meet for the first time since 2011 in Week 14.
Texas A&M pulled itself back into the playoff conversation with its 41-10 beatdown of Missouri on Saturday, the Aggies’ largest margin of victory over a top-10 team in program history. Texas A&M led 17-0 after three possessions and outgained the Tigers 510 to 254. Quarterback Conner Weigman returned from injury to go 18-of-22 for 276 yards. And the Aggies defense, powered by Purdue transfer Nic Scourton, tallied six sacks and eight tackles for loss, looking very much like a CFP-caliber unit in Year 1 under Mike Elko.
Texas, meanwhile, spent its bye week at No. 2 in the AP Top 25. Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers looks set to return in Week 7 against Oklahoma. Texas ranks third in total defense through six weeks with a résumé win over Michigan already under its belt.
Texas A&M has its work cut out for it between now and Nov. 30, hosting LSU on Oct. 26 before trips to South Carolina (Nov. 2) and Auburn (Nov. 23). Texas still has to get through Oklahoma next Saturday and a visit from the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs on the following weekend, too.
But the end-of-season meeting between Texas A&M and Texas that already has plenty of energy behind it could be even juicier by the time Week 14 rolls around. — Eli Lederman