Fall is officially here, and the UFC’s calendar is jam-packed with big events and intriguing matchups set for the next few months.
On Saturday, lightweights Renato Moicano and Benoît Saint Denis will headline UFC Fight Night as the promotion returns to Paris after last hosting a card in France in September 2023. The following week, the UFC heads to Salt Lake City as Alex Pereira will fight in his fourth title fight in just 329 days (tied for the fourth-shortest span in UFC history with Deiveson Figueiredo) in a matchup with ESPN’s No. 7 ranked light heavyweight, Khalil Rountree Jr.
With that in mind, let’s analyze the two cards in another edition of Real or Not. We’ll look at the prospects for the winners of marquee fights coming up, who could be possible title contenders and project the Hall of Fame candidacy of a few longtime stars.
Andreas Hale, Brett Okamoto and Jeff Wagenheim will decipher it all as they start with the main event of UFC Fight Night in Paris.
The winner of Renato Moicano-Benoît Saint Denis will get a top-5 opponent next
Not real. But these guys shouldn’t feel dismayed by that. It’s nearly impossible to get a matchup against a top-5 lightweight right now, because they only fight each other. Saint Denis got his chance against Dustin Poirier and lost. Rafael Fiziev lost to Justin Gaethje. Arman Tsarukyan got his against Charles Oliveira and turned it into a title shot.
It’s so difficult to crack the top 5 at lightweight, but the good news for these guys is that Poirier, Gaethje, Oliveira and even Michael Chandler probably only have a few fights left. In the meantime, Beneil Dariush‘s manager, Ali Abdelaziz, told me the UFC is waiting to see what happens in this fight before it books Dariush, which probably means the winner will get ESPN’s No. 7-ranked lightweight. — Okamoto
The winner of Alex Pereira-Khalil Rountree will fight Magomed Ankalaev next
Maybe? This one is complex because of multiple variables. First, Ankalaev needs to beat Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 308 on Oct. 26; otherwise, this entire question will be thrown out.
Let’s say Ankalaev wins that fight — well, then it depends. If Rountree wins, we’re probably looking at an immediate rematch between him and Pereira.
If Pereira wins, then I believe Pereira vs. Ankalaev will be next. The UFC doesn’t love that matchup for obvious reasons — a red-hot star going against a widely unknown No. 1 contender — but it wouldn’t really have any other choice. The only wrench in him facing Ankalaev would be if Pereira moved up in weight, but I don’t see that happening yet. The UFC doesn’t encourage active champions to move up. If Jon Jones beats Stipe Miocic at UFC 309 and doesn’t retire, he needs to face Tom Aspinall next. As much as I look forward to Pereira potentially moving up someday, I don’t think it’s in his immediate future. — Okamoto
A win for José Aldo puts him on the short list of men’s bantamweight title contenders
Not real. It would have been real if Sean O’Malley still held the title. However, considering that Merab Dvalishvili dominated Aldo just two fights ago and sent him into a short-lived retirement, beating the UFC’s No. 11-ranked bantamweight won’t put Aldo close to a title opportunity.
It’s also important to consider how the division currently stacks up, which is very different with Dvalishvili as champion than with O’Malley. The current shortlist of contenders for Dvalishvili includes Umar Nurmagomedov and Deiveson Figueiredo. Aldo has not factored into that equation yet. — Hale
The winner of Raquel Pennington-Juliana Peña is the best women’s bantamweight
Not real. Some might say it’s obvious that Kayla Harrison rates above both the champion, Raquel Pennington, and her challenger, Julianna Peña. Harrison has irrefutable star power and carries herself as a champion-in-waiting, even with just one fight in the UFC. I have reservations based on her past level of competition, but I feel like I’ve seen enough to put Harrison at the top of the current crop of 135-pounders.
Pennington is tough and on a solid run, but I suspect Harrison would be too much for her to handle. Peña’s strength, wrestling, would not be a strength against Harrison. So if Harrison takes another step forward in her UFC 307 matchup with Ketlen Vieira — and continues to win the battle with her most formidable opponent, the weigh-in scale — I don’t envision anyone stopping her. — Wagenheim
Pereira-Rountree is the most entertaining fight at UFC 307
Very real. This fight wasn’t made because Rountree necessarily earned it. This fight is all about Pereira making yet another quick turnaround against an opponent who will stand and bang with him.
The style these two bring into the Octagon is a recipe for fireworks and likely won’t require the judges to get involved in the outcome. There are some excellent fights at UFC 307 regarding potential action (Aldo-Mario Bautista, Stephen Thompson–Joaquin Buckley), but the level of violence that Pereira-Rountree could deliver is astronomically high. Fights like this aren’t made by accident, and the UFC’s social media team is probably already preparing to share the finish of that matchup. — Hale
There will be multiple retirements at UFC 307, but Carla Esparza will be the only future Hall of Famer
Both are real. Let me begin by making a HOF case for Esparza, who announced she would retire following her scrap with Tecia Pennington.
Esparza was the UFC’s first strawweight champion, and to earn that distinction, she had to dominate and finish Rose Namajunas in December 2014. Esparza’s reign was short, as Joanna Jedrzejczyk dethroned her three months later. But in 2022, the woman known as “Cookie Monster” won the title a second time, with another win over Namajunas, who was also a two-time champ. It culminated a six-fight winning streak during which Esparza also beat another former champion, flyweight Alexa Grasso. Esparza’s only loss in the past six years came against the current champ, Zhang Weili.
Esparza might not be alone in laying gloves at center cage during UFC 307. With three fighters in their 40s and over a dozen at least 35, this card offers plenty of retirement possibilities. No other fighter is a definite, but between Thompson and Ovince Saint Preux, both 41, or opponents Tim Means and Court McGee, whose combined age is 79, any of the above could join Esparza in walking away. — Wagenheim