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Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst
The 2024 college football season is right around the corner, which means a full schedule of games every weekend to evaluate the upcoming 2025 NFL draft class. Scouts are excited to see which players will play their way into higher draft stock over the course of the fall.
But some prospects have more on the line this upcoming season than others. Future success and millions of dollars are at stake, and game tape will be crucial for a handful of players with something to prove. How will standouts adjust to new schemes and positions, and can transfers transition seamlessly into new programs? Will talented prospects recover from injuries or slumps that plagued them in 2023? And who needs to show they can put up the production to match their talent?
Let’s pick out 10 draft prospects who have a lot at stake this season and what their performance could mean for their outlook next April.
Depending on who you ask, Allar is either a former top recruit with a ton of NFL talent or a frustratingly talented player who hasn’t quite figured it out.
Allar grew up an Ohio State fan in Medina, Ohio, but committed to Penn State and sat for a season behind Sean Clifford. He broke into the starting lineup as a sophomore in 2023, running up a 10-3 record in a stacked Big Ten while throwing 25 touchdown passes to only two interceptions.
That all sounds great, right? But those stats don’t tell the entire story.
Allar completed only 59.9% of his passes for an average of 6.8 yards per attempt. Those totals were ranked seventh and fifth in the Big Ten, respectively. That’s good production — especially for a first-year starter — but not great. Now the pressure is on Allar to take the next step.
From a tools perspective, he has it all — a big arm, an NFL-ready frame at 6-foot-5 and 241 pounds and good lower-body mobility. But his struggles to keep his eyes downfield and make throws vertically are notable; his 39.6 QBR on vertical routes ranked ninth in the conference. Allar’s tools excite NFL scouts — one AFC South area scout I spoke to thinks Allar has QB1 talent — but he must refine his game this season.
Penn State opens with six winnable games against below-average defenses before traveling to Wisconsin on Oct. 26 and hosting Ohio State on Nov. 2. Those games could go a long way in determining his NFL draft stock. In a class without a clear-cut QB1, several scouts I’ve talked to believe Allar can become that player.
How do you replace Xavier Worthy, the fastest player in the history of the NFL combine? Get a speedy transfer from Alabama.
The Texas offense lived on the deep ball last season, with Worthy and Adonai Mitchell as the beneficiaries. Both are gone to the NFL now, Worthy as a late first-rounder and Mitchell going in Round 2, and Bond is the first candidate to become Texas’ WR1 in 2024. Can he prove himself as a true go-to target who can take over an offense?
The 5-foot-11, 180-pound Bond has elite vertical stretch ability and speed. The junior led Alabama with 48 receptions for 668 yards and four scores last season and now he’ll get to work with Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback Quinn Ewers. Being tasked with living up to the standards set by Worthy and Mitchell will put early pressure and attention on Bond to excel right out of the gate. He has two more years of eligibility, but it’s not too early to get excited about him as the top deep threat in college football.
Edwards’ career has been a rollercoaster.
As a sophomore in 2022, he teamed up with Blake Corum to form a backfield duo that rushed for combined 2,454 yards. Edwards had 991 of those, averaging 7.1 yards per attempt with impressive quickness and burst. When Corum went down with a torn meniscus in his left knee late that season, Edwards was thrust into the lead back role and starred, rushing for 216 yards against Ohio State, 185 in the Big Ten title game against Purdue and another 119 in the team’s narrow loss to TCU in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
But Edwards didn’t carry that over to 2023. He was slower and stiffer, and he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry during the regular season, including five games in which he averaged fewer than 3 yards a pop. After struggling on limited touches against Alabama in the CFP semifinals (four carries, 11 yards), Edwards ended the season with a flourish by rushing for 104 yards and two long touchdowns against Washington in the national title game.
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Donovan Edwards goes untouched for his 2nd TD of the game
Donovan Edwards finds the hole and flies toward the end zone for a 46-yard Michigan touchdown.
So which Edwards will Michigan see in 2024? With Corum and quarterback J.J. McCarthy off to the NFL — along with the Wolverines’ entire starting offensive line — Edwards should be the team’s offensive backbone. The touches and opportunities will be there for him to emerge in a stacked running back class, but Edwards must shake the issues that plagued his junior season and restart the excitement scouts had about him after his sophomore campaign.
Ohio State has claimed the title of WRU, having four wide receivers drafted in the first round of the past three drafts, and a year ago it looked like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Egbuka would be the next dynamic Buckeyes duo a la Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.
Harrison lived up to expectations and was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 draft, but Egbuka battled an ankle injury that limited his availability and effectiveness. He, and the rest of the offense, also felt the loss of quarterback C.J. Stroud to the NFL, as replacement Kyle McCord struggled to generate explosive plays in the passing game. With 41 catches for 515 yards and four scores, Egbuka saw his production almost cut in half from his breakout 2022 season (74 receptions, 1,151 yards and 10 TDs).
Egbuka’s toughness and savvy presence as an underneath route runner are starter-level traits. He doesn’t possess game-changing speed or size (6-1, 203), but he is a great downfield blocker and a valuable punt returner. His feel for soft zones and expertise as a slant route runner are what you want in a WR2.
Ohio State’s quarterback situation isn’t completely settled as the season approaches, which could threaten Egbuka’s numbers. But the most important thing for him is a healthy showing in 2024. A return to his sophomore production could get him back into the first-round discussion.
Nolen was the No. 1 recruit in the ESPN 300 in 2022, signing with Texas A&M, but hit the portal after two seasons with the Aggies and signed with Ole Miss. Nolen performed well at A&M, posting four sacks and nine pressures in 12 games (10 starts) last season, but not to the level expected from a top recruit. Now, as a junior, he’ll anchor the Rebels’ defensive line.
The 6-foot-4, 290-pound Nolen is a handful for offensive linemen, with trademark quickness and a body type that resembles Quinnen Williams coming out of Alabama. At only 20 years old, Nolen has strength and natural leverage that you rarely see in a college defensive tackle. But he has turned those skills into only five sacks in two seasons. Expectations for Nolen are high in 2024, as Ole Miss looks to make the expanded College Football Playoff for the first time.
The 2025 draft class is loaded at defensive tackle, with players like Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant and Deone Walker at the top of the board. But Nolen has the talent to make his way to the top of that list if he builds on his tremendous potential.
Unlike some other players on this list, Perkins hasn’t struggled to live up to expectations. But he is settling in at a new position and has a new defensive coordinator in Blake Baker, who came over from Missouri. And this season is big for Perkins because he’s trying to show the NFL what he can be as an off-ball linebacker, where he projects better than at edge due to his 6-foot-1, 220-pound frame.
Perkins flashed onto the scene in 2022, posting 7.5 sacks as a true freshman. He was deployed all over as a defensive chess piece, adding three forced fumbles and an interception in a role similar to how the Dallas Cowboys use Micah Parsons. Unfortunately for Perkins, an offseason injury slowed his progress in 2023. He also played more of a true linebacker role. While he rushed the passer on three more snaps (144) than he did in 2022, his usage — especially early in the season — hid his talents.
There’s an expectation that Perkins will see more pass-rush reps now, even if it means blitzing more from weakside linebacker position. In a conversation at the Senior Bowl, Baker assured me we’d see Perkins getting back to his roots as a rusher. But is that what NFL scouts want to see?
Winning games in the SEC might mean rushing Perkins early and often, but that could work against his NFL stock given his lack of traditional size for the edge position. Perkins has a first-round grade from every scout I’ve talked to this summer. But there is a difference in how the NFL perceives edge rushers vs. off-ball linebackers, and Perkins’ draft stock could be affected.
Sanders enters the season with Heisman hopes and buzz as a potential QB1 for the class. No college quarterback will get more attention than the son of Pro Football Hall of Famer Deion Sanders.
Shedeur Sanders wowed in his first season at Colorado following his transfer from FCS Jackson State. He threw for 3,230 yards and 27 touchdown passes with just three interceptions on 529 attempts. He completed 69.3% of his throws and hung tough in the pocket despite dubious protection from a patchwork offensive line that contributed to Sanders being sacked an FBS-high 52 times. “Surgical” was the best word to describe Sanders’ play.
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Can Shedeur Sanders carry Colorado despite O-line issues?
Heather Dinich discusses whether Shedeur Sanders can overcome roster shortcomings to lead the Buffaloes to a solid Big 12 season.
So why is he under pressure? Sanders must overcome the struggles he showed against top defenses. His effectiveness and production suffered against Oregon, UCLA and Arizona last season, as he was sacked 17 times in those games. He failed to throw for 200 yards against the Ducks, his lowest total when playing a full game. Good defenses forced Sanders to hold the ball in the pocket and often took away his primary read. When that happened, he wasn’t the same passer, and his numbers dropped.
The attention generated by “Coach Prime” and the Buffs’ early success last season put Sanders in the spotlight and validated the flashes Sanders showed at Jackson State. Year 2 will be his opportunity to prove his ability against better competition, improve his draft stock and potentially be the top overall player in the 2025 class.
Stewart is the second highly recruited Texas A&M transfer to be on this list, joining Nolen. Immediate explosive offensive production was expected from the five-star recruit, but Stewart produced just six touchdowns in two seasons before hitting the transfer portal and signing with Oregon. Scouts are now excited about how he will be used at Oregon, where he’ll join prolific quarterback Dillon Gabriel and have highly productive Tez Johnson opposite him at the other wideout spot.
The 6-foot, 175-pound Stewart can play out wide — he did so on 83.5% of his snaps at A&M — and has the speed to push defenses vertically. He possesses great acceleration, with the juice to threaten defenses at every level and punish cornerbacks on breaking routes but has dropped 5.5% percent of passes thrown to him the past two seasons (nine total). Stewart’s speed and overall movement ability make him an exciting prospect, but right now he’s more known for his recruiting stars than college exploits.
The high-octane Oregon offense could flip that narrative, and Stewart’s draft stock could soar if the production catches up to the hype.
Weigman played in only four games last season before being shut down with a fracture in his left foot, but there’s a lot of excitement about what the junior can do in 2024.
Weigman, a 6-foot-3, 215-pound righty, threw eight touchdown passes last season to just two interceptions while completing 68.9% of his passes. He also showed some running ability with two touchdowns on the ground. Weigman flashes arm strength that’ll reach every level of the field and the quick feet needed to reset in the pocket and on the move.
What’s at stake? He’s tasked with returning A&M to prominence in the SEC and beating in-state rival Texas, who the Aggies will play for the first time since 2011. If he does those things while duplicating last season’s small-sample-size output on a bigger scale, Heisman candidacy and QB1 status in the draft are possible, especially in a quarterback class without a set No. 1 player.
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Aggies have a chance to light it up if Weigman stays healthy
The SEC Now crew believes in Texas A&M if they can stay healthy and quarterback Conner Weigman continues to grow.
It won’t be without challenges. As mentioned above, Stewart left for Oregon and Weigman will have a new offensive coordinator in Collin Klein, who favored an offense featuring more quarterback runs and fewer downfield passes in his previous stops. Weigman has the mobility to execute in the ground game, but scouts want to see him airing the ball out and making full-field throws. Will Klein’s offense allow him to do that?
Weigman won’t get a chance to ease into the season, as the Aggies host No. 7 Notre Dame in the season opener on Aug. 31.
Williams has been one of the hottest topics in draft circles this summer. The 6-foot-5, 265-pound junior is 19 years old, has experience at defensive tackle and defensive end, and will make the move to a full-time outside linebacker role in 2024 that should accentuate his natural pass-rush tools.
From talking to scouts this summer, Williams is viewed as a Travon Walker-like player: a physically talented pass rusher with length, power and speed but whose game needs polish. The flashes are there, as he has posted 4.5 sacks in each of the past two seasons in a reserve role.
Williams won’t be a reserve this season, though. In Week 1, he’ll face Clemson right tackle Blake Miller in a highly anticipated battle between top prospects. Three weeks later, Williams will encounter a strong Alabama offensive line. The new SEC prevents a player from hiding behind a soft schedule, and Williams will get tested in his new role weekly against top competition.
Some — including my colleague Jordan Reid — believe Williams is good enough to potentially be the No. 1 overall pick. Williams will get a chance to redeem that belief, starting with No. 14 Clemson on Aug. 31.