A cloud of uncertainty accompanies the return of the southern hemisphere’s premier rugby competition.
What is the future of the Rugby Championship? At this point, no one really knows.
This year’s tournament – as with the vast majority of the previous 12 editions – appears a straight shootout between the world champion Springboks and Scott Robertson’s All Blacks.
The Wallabies are in a familiar rebuild mode under Joe Schmidt and the Pumas, while capable of springing the odd upset such as their maiden triumph in New Zealand two years ago, aren’t expected to seriously challenge for the title in Felipe Contepomi’s maiden year at the helm.
The largely settled Springboks, having added former All Blacks first five-eighth Tony Brown as their attack coach, deserve their favourtism.
Two home Tests against the All Blacks in Cape Town and Johannesburg tip the balance firmly Rassie Erasmus’ way – although the new laws that usher in 30 second shot clocks for scrums and lineout are sure to test the anaerobic fitness capacity of South Africa’s hulking forward pack.
The All Blacks lay claim to seven of the last eight tournaments – 10 overall – and will be determined to do so again in Robertson’s first Test season.
Beyond this year, though, the Rugby Championship faces multiple major challenges. The format, which switched to alternate year hosting rights to save money on travel costs, is flawed.
This year, for instance, the All Blacks confront the difficult task of selling two home Tests against the Pumas. Neither Tests in Wellington this weekend nor Auckland the following week are sold out which underlines the lack of genuine lure the Argentinians generate, despite their recent success on New Zealand shores.
Selling two home Tests against the Springboks is meat and drink but the current format essentially leaves home fans shortchanged every two years.
A similar climate exists in Australia. The Wallabies successfully sold out their Saturday afternoon Test with the Springboks at Suncorp Stadium this weekend but, historically, such a turnout is the exception to the rule. Outside of a Lions tour or home World Cup, Australia values hosting the All Blacks for Bledisloe Cup encounters above anything else. Tickets fly out the door compared to other Rugby Championship opponents.
Last year the All Blacks and Wallabies drew 83,944 to the Melbourne Cricket Ground for the largest rugby attendance in Australia since the turn of the century.
Significantly improved competitiveness from the Wallabies and Pumas would undoubtedly enhance the tournament’s status but that is unlikely to happen this year.
Jeopardy and demand, or lack of, is partly why expansion talks to include Japan and Fiji in the Rugby Championship have gone cold amid suggestions feasibility studies didn’t deliver the desired numbers.
Japan and Fiji, for now at least, are left on the outer looking in while awaiting confirmation of their inclusion in the 12 team Nations Championship slated to start in 2026.
That same year poses the greatest looming threat to the Rugby Championship in its current form, with New Zealand and South Africa planning to kickoff reciprocal tours once every four years.
The first tour will involve the All Blacks playing three, possibly four, Tests and mid-week matches in South Africa in 2026. The Springboks will then return the favour to tour New Zealand for the same duration in 2030.
While reviving these tours presents a highly desirable proposition for New Zealand and South African fans, and their respective unions from a financial perspective, the Rugby Championship will be rendered dormant in those years to spark questions around its long-term viability and relevance.
The Wallabies are attempting to negotiate with New Zealand Rugby for at least one Bledisloe Cup Test to be staged in Australia in 2026 and 2030 to ensure they effectively receive some form of compensation for canning the Rugby Championship.
There is no word yet, though, on how the Wallabies and Argentina will fill their August-September Test windows in those years.
They would never admit as much publicly but New Zealand and South Africa, by way of prioritising their tours, are severely undermining the Rugby Championship’s future.
Reviving tours has also sparked discussions around the possibility of sticking with the concept for all the competing Rugby Championship nations. But, as is evident with the Pumas lure in New Zealand, pitching a month-long Argentina tour would be a hard sell.
The reality is that in two of the next four editions the Rugby Championship will be compromised. It won’t take place in 2026 and the following year, when Australia hosts the men’s World Cup, it will take place in a truncated format.
Needs must for rugby’s four southern hemisphere powers.
For all South Africa’s posturing the Six Nations door remains closed to the Springboks. South Africa values their deep historical connection to New Zealand rugby, too.
Proximity – if you could call it that compared to the northern nations – dictates New Zealand, South Africa, Australia and Argentina need each other to stage some form of consistent Test competition.
How that looks long term, though, is anyone’s guess.
The risk is the constant tinkering and format shifts create a level of confusion or, worse, apathy that markedly devalues the Rugby Championship. At this point, that uncertain pathway is well underway.