The Big Ten is now the big 18. In a watershed moment for the league, traditional West Coast powers Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA will make their debuts in the Big Ten after bolting from the Pac-12.
Their mettle will be put to the test.
Michigan defeated the Huskies to win the national championship last season. Penn State could field its most talented squad in years. Ohio State is as loaded as any team in college football.
Others, including Iowa, with a revamped offense; Nebraska, under second-year head coach Matt Rhule; and Rutgers, Wisconsin and Maryland; have reason for optimism.
Rhule said during Big Ten media days that the league deserves to get four invites to the College Football Playoff every year. This season especially, he could be right.
ESPN reporters Adam Rittenberg and Jake Trotter predict and preview what’s to come in 2024’s bigger Big Ten.
Jump to a section:
CFP outlook | Top transfers | Impact freshmen
Our favorite players | Must-see games
Numbers to know | On the hot seat
Teams on the rise | Power rankings
CFP outlook
Should be in
Ohio State: Anything short of a victory over Michigan, a deep playoff run and maybe even Ohio State’s first national title since 2014 would be considered disappointing for coach Ryan Day and the Buckeyes. Ohio State’s massive personnel push, both retaining key players and adding talented ones the portal, has given Day the strongest Ohio State roster in years.
Oregon: Coach Dan Lanning has done everything right during two seasons in Eugene, except winning the biggest games. Although the conference move will be challenging, Lanning has put together a balanced, talented and deep roster capable of ending the Ducks’ decade-long CFP drought.
In the running
Penn State: No program could benefit more from the expanded CFP field than Penn State, which has six top-12 finishes under coach James Franklin despite not making the top four. If new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki can maximize QB Drew Allar‘s talents, the Nittany Lions should have an excellent chance.
Michigan: The Wolverines lost a team-record 13 NFL draft picks, as well as coach Jim Harbaugh to the Los Angeles Chargers. But they also return several national awards candidates, including cornerback Will Johnson, defensive lineman Mason Graham and tight end Colston Loveland. Michigan’s winning philosophy shouldn’t change much under new coach Sherrone Moore. If the Wolverines find the right replacement for QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan could be right back in the playoff mix.
USC: Unable to win the Pac-12 in coach Lincoln Riley’s first two seasons, the Trojans join the Big Ten with measured external expectations. Riley last made the CFP in 2019 with Oklahoma but will need significant improvement on defense — a unit led by D’Anton Lynn and a star-studded staff — to contend in a new league.
Long shots
Wisconsin: The Badgers would have made a 12-team CFP in previous seasons. They hired coach Luke Fickell last year to get them over the hump. Fickell will need the Air Raid offense, which still generates skepticism around the league, to start clicking following a 7-6 debut season. A favorable road slate in 2024 — with no Ohio State or Michigan on the schedule — should help.
Iowa: Although a third trip to the Big Ten championship game in four years will be tough, Iowa could contend for the CFP with marginal upgrades on last year’s woeful offense. Linebacker Jay Higgins and safety Sebastian Castro lead an elite defense, and the schedule is manageable, save for an Oct. 5 visit to Ohio State.
Top transfers
1:35
Dan Lanning addresses Oregon’s NIL jabs with McAfee
Ducks coach Dan Lanning mentions Kirby Smart’s jab at Oregon’s NIL program while talking about recruiting with Pat McAfee.
Ohio State S Caleb Downs: The Buckeyes landed the best young star in the portal in Downs, who last season became the first true freshman to lead Alabama in tackles (107) since at least 1970. The reigning SEC Freshman of the Year gives Buckeyes defensive coordinator Jim Knowles another proven playmaker in the secondary, which also features Denzel Burke and Lathan Ransom.
Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel: The Ducks have replaced one record-setting passer with another in Gabriel, who takes over for first-round pick Bo Nix after transferring in from Oklahoma. Gabriel ranks in the top 8 in FBS history in total touchdowns (152), total yards (15,925), passing yards (14,865) and passing touchdowns (125). Gabriel, who earned all-league honors for both Oklahoma and UCF, was a Manning Award finalist last season with the Sooners, where he completed 69.3% of his passes for 3,660 yards and 30 touchdowns.
Ohio State RB Quinshon Judkins: A two-time first-team All-SEC selection at Ole Miss, Judkins was a surprising portal entry, especially with the Rebels poised to contend for the CFP. His destination also raised eyebrows, as he joins an Ohio State offense that returned top back TreVeyon Henderson. In 2022, Judkins posted the second-best rushing total by a freshman in SEC history (1,567), trailing only Herschel Walker. Then last fall, he led the league with 15 rushing touchdowns. Judkins and Henderson arguably form the nation’s best rushing tandem.
Impact freshmen
Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith: The legend of Smith has grown to epic proportions since he arrived on campus this past January. Despite an already loaded, star-studded receiver room, Smith is the guy who keeps generating buzz. We haven’t seen this type of incoming hype since AJ Green and Julio Jones in the 2006 class. His blend of size, agility, strength and acrobatic pass-catching ability make him a downfield nightmare.
Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola: It is rare to be such a definitive choice as QB1 as an incoming freshman before you’ve even taken a snap in training camp, but that seems to be the case with Raiola. He is uber talented and clearly more talented than the rest of the QB room, and many think he could lead Nebraska to a 7-0 start considering their schedule. We are going to tap the brakes a bit as there will be bright spots, but also bumps in the road. It’s a big jump from high school to Big Ten football.
Michigan State WR Nick Marsh: The Spartans need playmakers, and Marsh has arrived just in time having caught three passes for 105 yards and a touchdown in Michigan State’s spring game. He is a big, physical target who creates mismatch problems on the deep ball. New coach Jonathan Smith needs a go-to weapon for new transfer QB Aidan Chiles to help ignite what has been a stagnant offense. — Tom Luginbill
Our favorite players
USC WR/returner Zachariah Branch: The Trojans lose six NFL draft picks from their offense, including quarterback Caleb Williams (No. 1 overall) along with wide receivers Brenden Rice and Tahj Washington. But USC brings back an electrifying playmaker in Branch, who became USC’s first-ever true freshman All-American. Branch averaged 30.8 yards on punt returns with punt return and kick return touchdowns. He also had 31 receptions and averaged 7.8 yards per rush. He projects to be one of the nation’s top all-purpose players this fall.
Michigan DT Kenneth Grant: At 6-foot-3 and 339 pounds, Grant is hard to miss. Still, he was overshadowed by a loaded Michigan defense last season until the Penn State game, when he memorably chased down Nittany Lions running back Kaytron Allen from behind. Grant followed that up with a fumble recovery against Iowa in the Big Ten championship and a sack in the national title game. An excellent athlete for his size, Grant provides a strong complement to Mason Graham in Michigan’s interior line.
Iowa S Sebastian Castro: Iowa’s secondary has been the team’s biggest most exciting position group in recent years. Since the Big Ten started naming a defensive of the year in 2011, Iowa players have won it six times, including twice in the last three years with Cooper DeJean earning the nod last fall. Castro is the next in line, a natural ball hawk who had three interceptions and 11 pass breakups last season to go with three career forced fumbles.
Oregon WR Tez Johnson: Listed at 160 pounds, Johnson has the build and skill set reminiscent of the Chip Kelly wide receivers during Oregon’s heyday. He also set Oregon’s single-season receptions record with 86 in 2023, while putting up the school’s third-highest receiving yards (1,182) and the fourth-highest receiving touchdowns (10) in a season. Johnson also finished strong with 71 receptions for 979 yards and seven touchdowns in his final nine games. He should be quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s top target as Troy Franklin moves on to the NFL.
Penn State DE Abdul Carter: The Nittany Lions lost two defensive linemen and two cornerbacks to the NFL draft, but they return possibly their most dynamic player in Carter, who has earned All-Big Ten honors in his first two seasons. He moves from linebacker to defensive end, where Penn State should capitalize on his ability to enter the backfield. Carter has 11 career sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss and three forced fumbles. A strong season at a new position could also vault Carter into the top 10 of the 2025 draft.
Nebraska DT Nash Hutmacher: He has a superhero name and will play an important role for a Nebraska defense that returns almost completely intact after finishing 11th nationally last season. Hutmacher set career highs in tackles (40), tackles for loss (8) and sacks (4.5) in 2023, earning honorable mention All-Big Ten honors. The 330-pound Hutmacher also shed about 40 pounds in a little over a month to compete for Nebraska’s wrestling team in the winter, before getting back to football-playing weight for the spring.
Must-see games
0:40
Is Michigan entering a rebuilding year?
Paul Finebaum joins “Get Up” and breaks down Michigan’s potential path to the College Football Playoff this coming season.
Texas at Michigan, Sept. 7: The defending national champs will be tested early in one of the projected games of the year in college football. The Wolverines have yet to name a starting quarterback, but they’ll have to keep this Week 2 showdown in mind as they deliberate on who can handle such a big stage. With only five returning starters off last year’s team, this game will serve as a barometer for how Michigan’s first season under new head coach Sherrone Moore may go.
USC and Michigan, Sept. 21: Riley and the Trojans make their Big Ten debut in the Big House. How will USC and Riley’s Air Raid attack handle the week-to-week physicality of the Big Ten? This bout will provide a glimpse, as the Trojans attempt to rebound from their disappointing 2023 season. The Wolverines, meanwhile, will have a prime opportunity to get off to a winning start against this new conference rival. Michigan faces three of the four Pac-12 newcomers this season, along with Washington (Oct. 5) and Oregon (Nov. 2).
Ohio State at Oregon, Oct. 12: A rematch of the 2014 national championship game, this blockbuster matchup could carry major playoff and Big Ten title implications. Gabriel could propel his Heisman candidacy into overdrive with a sterling performance against Ohio State’s vaunted defense. The Buckeyes could send a message that they’re primed for a national championship run after missing the playoff last year. These Big Ten preseason co-favorites could also meet again in the conference title game.
Ohio State at Penn State, Nov. 2: The Nittany Lions are 0-6 vs. Ohio State and Michigan over the past three years. Could this be the year Penn State finally breaks through? Quarterback play could be the difference. The Nittany Lions boast the top returning QB in the Big Ten who actually played in the Big Ten in Allar, who completed 25 touchdowns with only two interceptions. But Ohio State is banking that Kansas State transfer Will Howard — assuming he wins the job during the preseason — can provide the Buckeyes with the dual-threat presence they sorely missed last year.
Nebraska at Iowa, Nov. 29: If the Big Ten title race is to be upended, it might be because of one of these two programs. The Cornhuskers figure to be stout again defensively. If Raiola lives up to the hype, Nebraska could become a factor. The Hawkeyes are always stout on defense. If new offensive coordinator Tim Lester can drum up more big plays — the Hawkeyes were last among Power 5 offenses last year in plays of 20 yards or more — Iowa won’t be an easy out, either. Could this regular-season finale hold Big Ten title game implications? It’s not completely unthinkable.
Washington at Oregon, Nov. 30: Last year, this game decided the Pac-12 title, which the Huskies won on the way to making the national championship game. Washington is retooling under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch, who has only two returning starters to build around from last year’s team. The Ducks, however, are stacked, and even though Gabriel is new to Eugene, he brings 49 career starts with him. The Ducks couldn’t get past Washington last year. The Huskies would love to keep it that way.
Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 30: The Wolverines have won three straight games over the Buckeyes on the way to three straight Big Ten titles, culminating with last season’s national championship. To answer, Ohio State loaded up in the transfer portal, landing Downs, Howard and Judkins, while several key players from last year like Emeka Egbuka opted to come back for another season. This will be as must-win as it gets for Day and the Buckeyes. The Wolverines will be gunning for four straight wins in the rivalry for the first time since the early 1990s.
Numbers to know
7: Straight seasons that either Michigan or Ohio State has won the conference.
13: Starts needed from Dillon Gabriel to surpass his successor — Bo Nix — for most starts by a QB in FBS history (Gabriel is at 49, Nix at 61).
3-17: James Franklin’s record vs. AP Top 10 teams while at Penn State. — ESPN Stats & Information
On the hot seat
Rittenberg: Nobody
Recent coaching turnover, secure contracts and realignment leave the Big Ten with no obvious hot-seat candidate for 2024. The expanded CFP might be the biggest factor, especially if coaches such as Day and Penn State’s James Franklin don’t make the field of 12. Purdue might struggle again but Ryan Walters deserves at least three years there. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz turned 69 last week and will be an annual retirement candidate until he decides to step down.
Trotter: Ohio State
Howard declared during the Manning Passing Academy recently that this season is “natty or bust” for the Buckeyes. Anything short of a win over Michigan, a Big Ten title and the school’s first national championship in a decade would feel like a disappointment. That might seem unreasonable. But those will be the expectations Ohio State faces. Defensive end Jack Sawyer admitted as much during Big Ten media days: “We know what’s at stake.”
Teams on the rise
Rittenberg: Rutgers
Greg Schiano has been building toward this season, as Rutgers boasts its deepest and most talented roster since joining the Big Ten. Rutgers returns starters at all three levels of its defense, including disruptive linebacker Mohamed Toure, as well as 2023 Big Ten rushing leader Kyle Monangai. “We’ve got a bunch of guys that have come of age,” Schiano told me last month. The Scarlet Knights also finally catch a schedule break: They don’t play Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State, as well as top West Coast addition Oregon.
Trotter: Nebraska
The Cornhuskers haven’t had a winning season since 2016, when Mike Riley went 9-3 before losing to Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. But Nebraska showed signs of life in Rhule’s first season last year despite the 5-7 finish, as four of those defeats came by just a field goal. The defensive front should be formidable again, led by Hutmacher. If Dylan Raiola proves to be for real, the Huskers could be back in a bowl for the first time in eight years.
Power Rankings
1. Ohio State: Loaded Buckeyes seek to end Michigan, CFP title droughts
2. Oregon: Ducks enter Big Ten with championship-ready roster
3. Penn State: Offensive reboot could shape Lions’ quest for first CFP appearance
4. Michigan: QB question looms for Moore in title defense
5. Iowa: New playcaller Lester hopes to revive dormant offense
6. USC: Will revamped defensive staff make the difference for Riley?
7. Wisconsin: Fickell seeks Year 2 breakthrough as home showdowns loom
8. Nebraska: The Huskers are playing defense again
9. Rutgers: Favorable schedule and returning stars send expectations soaring
10. Washington: National runner-up begins total reboot under Fisch
11. Minnesota: Quarterback transfer Max Brosmer arrives to complement veteran Gopher defense
12: Maryland: Favorable early schedule could help Terrapins generate confidence
13. Illinois: Illini must improve turnover margin (-8) after ranking 123rd in 2023
14. Northwestern: Popup stadium off Lake Michigan could be a unique home-field advantage
15. UCLA: Bruins must travel 22,062 miles, second most of any FBS team
16. Indiana: Coach Curt Cignetti brings brash attitude to Bloomington
17: Michigan State: Much rests on Oregon State transfer QB Aidan Chiles
18. Purdue: Boilermakers face unforgiving schedule, which includes Notre Dame