With the 2024 NBA draft less than a month away (June 26-27), the draft pool solidified more Wednesday with the passing of the NCAA’s deadline for men’s college basketball players to decide whether to forgo their college eligibility by staying in the draft or return to school.
NBA teams and college programs were given reasons to celebrate as notable players such as Bronny James, Alex Karaban, David Jones, Caleb Love and Mark Sears made decisions about their basketball futures. The feedback players received from the NBA draft combine and pro day workouts, as well as the effect of NIL deals from various programs, played major roles in whether prospects decided to go pro or return to schools that are primed for championship runs.
Also of note, the NBA’s final deadline for early entrants to withdraw their names from the draft pool is June 16, a date that most impacts international players, who aren’t under the same restrictions as college players.
So which schools benefited the most from players returning to their programs? Who is most likely to rise up the NBA draft board in 2025? Are the UConn Huskies in position to go for a three-peat? ESPN college basketball insider Jeff Borzello and ESPN draft insiders Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo share their answers to these lingering questions.
Jump to a question:
What to make of Bronny’s decision?
How does UConn benefit from Karaban’s return?
Early look at a 2025 first-rounder?
School hurt the most by prospect staying in the draft?
Which school is the biggest winner after the withdrawal deadline?
Borzello: It has to be Alabama. The Crimson Tide received two pieces of good news on deadline day, with All-American guard Mark Sears and promising forward Jarin Stevenson both announcing they were returning to Tuscaloosa. Sears will enter the season as the favorite to win SEC Player of the Year, and Stevenson showed flashes of his potential late in the season. Alabama is now clearly in the conversation for preseason No. 1. UConn (Alex Karaban, a 6-foot-9 forward who is returning) and Arizona (Caleb Love, a 6-4 guard who is returning) were two other big winners of deadline day.
Which school was most hurt by prospects who stayed in the draft?
Borzello: Of the 20 or so players worth monitoring on deadline day, only a handful stayed in the draft — and the only one who could remotely be classified as a surprise was David Jones opting to forgo his final year at Memphis and stay in the draft. After an NBA combine showing that didn’t improve his draft stock, things seemed to be trending in the direction of Jones going back to play for coach Penny Hardaway. And with him in the fold, the Tigers could have made an argument to be ranked in the preseason top 25. But without Jones, Hardaway will have to rely almost entirely on transfers — and has no focal point on the offensive end.
Which prospect who returned to school has the best chance to rise in the 2025 NBA draft?
Givony: Michael Ajayi was somewhat of a surprise invite to the combine after being tucked away at Pepperdine this season. But the 6-7 wing quickly showed he more than belonged in Chicago and gained quite a few fans among NBA teams the more he was seen in different stops throughout the pre-draft process with his 7-1 wingspan and the flashes he showed of passing, rebounding, shot-making and defensive versatility. Now that he has transferred to a much more visible platform at Gonzaga, Ajayi has a chance to help himself considerably in his final year of NCAA eligibility, especially if he can make strides with his skill level, feel for the game and perimeter shooting consistency — which is not a stretch considering how much of a late bloomer he is.
Woo: Alabama’s Stevenson has built up some fans around the league in the pre-draft process and played his entire freshman season as an 18-year-old after reclassifying to enter college early. He stands 6-10 in shoes with a 7-foot wingspan, and another year of college — and more time to get up to speed — might help him realize his potential as a two-way stretch forward. He still has a long way to go, but he’ll be on the short list of returners teams are keeping an eye on in the fall.
Who’s an under-the-radar prospect you like who went back to school and could be a first-round draft pick in 2025?
Givony: Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas never seriously looked at entering the 2024 draft after a freshman season in which he played 12 minutes per game. But there is certainly a reason the Arizona coaching staff nudged starting center and first-team All-Pac-12 player Oumar Ballo into the transfer portal to give Krivas the space he needs to explode next season. Krivas was still growing even after enrolling at the Tucson school; now pushing 7-3, he had some outstanding moments suggesting he could develop into one of the best big men in college basketball with a Donovan Clingan-type rise as a sophomore. He has outstanding hands, long arms, a high skill level, and impressive instincts on both ends of the floor. He’s all but guaranteed to be productive as a rebounder and interior scorer at Arizona next season, but we’ll see what type of strides he is able to make defensively and with his overall athleticism to get a better feel for where he fits into the draft equation in 2025.
Woo: Kentucky forward Adou Thiero (6-8, 222 pounds) opted to stay in school and will follow coach John Calipari to Arkansas, a program where he should have an opportunity to vault up next year’s draft board. Thiero’s defensive prowess as a shot-blocker and bouncy rebounder caught attention from NBA scouts last season, but it manifested mostly in flashes. If he can find some consistency and carve out a bigger role, Thiero (who just turned 20 on May 8) could be ticketed for an NBA-friendly campaign.
How can Karaban benefit from another year in Storrs, and what does it mean for the Huskies’ chances of a three-peat?
Borzello: Karaban now becomes the go-to guy on what will likely be a preseason top-five team going for its third straight national championship. He’ll be able to showcase his all-around game more than he did the past two seasons. With his starting forward back in the fold, coach Dan Hurley now will have the players to make a realistic run at another title; Karaban and top-10 recruit Liam McNeeley should form one of the most potent shooting duos in the country.
Woo: NBA teams are familiar with what Karaban provides on a nightly basis, but with UConn losing several key players, there’s an opportunity for him to demonstrate he can handle a greater offensive role for the Huskies. While most of his value will always be as a floor spacer and cutter, it will be up to UConn to figure out how to use him even more creatively as the program turns over most of its key rotation players. Three consecutive titles is a tall task, but the Huskies will certainly be quite solid with Karaban back in the fold.
In what ways are NIL deals most impacting the draft landscape?
Borzello: Before NIL, players essentially had to choose between making money and trying to improve their draft stock with another year in college. That’s no longer the case, and as a result we’re seeing far more borderline draft picks — or players who simply aren’t happy with their projected draft range — return to college. Great college players who don’t necessarily have an immediate role in the NBA (Hunter Dickinson, RJ Davis, Sears, Love all come to mind) also have monetary incentive to stick around until the end of their careers.
Givony: We’re seeing many of the top international prospects — for example, Khaman Maluach (Duke), Egor Demin (BYU), Kasparas Jakucionis (Illinois), Ismaila Diagne (Gonzaga) — come to college now, which was rarely the case in the past, thanks to significant NIL packages schools are putting together that allow some players to pay off huge buyouts to European clubs. That will allow NBA scouts to evaluate the top Americans and the best international players in head-to-head matchups. NIL might even allow for 21- and 22-year old European professionals to join in on the fun this summer if college coaches can get creative enough brainstorming waiver requests that exhausted NCAA enforcement officials might just rubber-stamp to avoid additional litigation.
Woo: College programs ultimately have more sway right now in bringing players back using their NIL allotment — in some instances, encouraging players to return to school and stay out of the pre-draft process entirely. Some NBA teams I spoke with felt this year’s combine and G League Elite Camp were somewhat watered down as a result. That dynamic has served to thin out the middle of the pool a bit, which affects the market for two-way contracts and undrafted free agents, although not as much as in the draft’s first round.
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Hahn: Bronny is biggest name in draft, despite not being best player
Alan Hahn reacts to Bronny James staying in the NBA draft and breaks down the teams that could select him.
What do you make of Bronny James’ decision to turn pro?
Woo: There was an opportunity to better showcase himself by going back to college, but I also think there’s impetus to turn pro now, since James has been medically cleared from a health standpoint. Expectations for his pro career seem to be pretty realistic all around, and I thought Bronny did enough at the combine to at least enhance his case.
Borzello: His decision made sense for a few reasons. One, as Jeremy mentioned, being cleared from a health standpoint was important. And, while James’ freshman season was underwhelming because of the aforementioned health issues as well as USC’s on-court struggles, his performance at the combine along with what scouts saw from him at the high school level just over a year ago makes leaving college a viable option.