Let the showdown commence!
The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, preseason favorites to claim the National League championship and current leaders in the East and West Divisions, match up for the first time in 2024 with a three-game, weekend series at Dodger Stadium.
Elsewhere, the improving Houston Astros get a big test with a three-game home series against the Seattle Mariners, and power righties George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller. And the Baltimore Orioles, who suddenly have an abundance of rotation depth with the returns of Kyle Bradish and John Means, visit the up-and-coming Cincinnati Reds in what will be a rematch of the 1970 World Series.
How do those series and others impact fantasy managers’ lineup planning? Our analysts, Tristan H. Cockcroft and Eric Karabell, tee up the weekend ahead.
Karabell: The Braves have won the NL East for six consecutive seasons, and the Dodgers have won the NL West in 10 of the past 11 years. Each franchise recently won a World Series, dispatching the other side along the way. This is a legitimate rivalry, and while the Phillies, Brewers, Cubs or another team may get in the way, these remain the top NL teams. Atlanta has some struggling hitters in the middle of their lineup (Austin Riley, Matt Olson) and the Dodgers lack rotation depth, but these are playoff teams.
We know Atlanta’s sluggers will be fine, as will OF Ronald Acuna Jr., so I continue to watch the Los Angeles starting pitchers not named Tyler Glasnow. RHP Gavin Stone goes on Friday night, and after ace Glasnow dominates on Saturday, it is LHP James Paxton against rejuvenated LHP Max Fried on Sunday afternoon. Can the Dodgers count on Stone and Paxton? Stone went a promising seven innings in his most recent outing, at Toronto, but he also fanned only two hitters. Paxton continues to pile on the walks, with 16 in his past three starts. Yuck.
I am also watching several Dodgers hitters for deeper leagues. OF James Outman and SS/2B Gavin Lux are struggling mightily against right-handed pitching, and the team platoons them versus lefties. Outman had a surprising rookie campaign, with 23 home runs, 70 RBI and 16 steals. He looks nothing like those numbers now. Andy Pages has been up a few weeks and may push him to the minors. Pages has drawn nary a walk, but he makes contact and hits right-handers. Lux looks worse than Outman. Miguel Vargas is again punishing Triple-A pitching. Hmm. Add Vargas in deep mixed and NL-only.
It is funny how you mention the 1970 World Series when you were still like two decades from being born. Or am I being overly kind? The 1970 Orioles — who won the series — were not a young team. The 2024 Orioles sure are. We have seen IF Jackson Holliday. OF Heston Kjerstad is up, but not really playing. I wonder when we will see right-handed batting prospects Connor Norby and Coby Mayo.
Cockcroft: Oh, didn’t I tell you? I found the fountain of youth last weekend. (There’s even photo evidence on Instagram.) Now I can tell you as much about Dave May as Coby Mayo!
I think Mayo now gets the next recall ahead of Jackson Holliday’s second chance, though it might take a Ryan Mountcastle injury or a Jorge Mateo slump for it to happen. Connor Norby could factor into a corner outfield spot, perhaps, if an injury clears space there. It’s a heck of a lot of prospect depth, some of which might be well-used to bolster the rotation, though this weekend could tell us something about how strong the need is.
Bradish pitches Thursday against the Yankees, Means probably on Saturday, in Grayson Rodriguez’s spot, at the Reds. Either could shuffle by a day in either direction, though those dates would have each on five days’ rest. Neither is a great matchup for fantasy, though both should be close to a regular pitch count after lengthy minor league rehabilitation stints. Keep both on the bench for evaluation to activate next week.
The Astros’ Cristian Javier, who was off to a hot start before neck discomfort landed him on the injured list in mid-April, has a good chance at being activated for Sunday’s game against the Mariners. That has been a plus matchup all year, as the Mariners grade the No. 1 offense for pitcher strikeouts, and they have been below-average for run production. A limited pitch count could be Javier’s biggest obstacle.
But if we’re talking about comeback starts, does any stand out more than Alek Manoah‘s? The 2022 top-10 overall performer-turned-2023 disaster by all rights is the favorite to rejoin the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday, in Yariel Rodriguez’s open rotation spot, after a dazzling Tuesday outing for Triple-A Buffalo (6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 12 K) going head-to-head with another super-prospect, Paul Skenes. I don’t know what to make of Manoah at this point and will stress that he has been up and down even in his five-start minor league rehab stint, so this is one to watch… but from the bench, bench, BENCH!
Karabell: I am going nowhere near Manoah for this weekend’s start. Hoping for the best, of course, because his first two seasons were so much fun, but I need to see consistency. I wish I had seen Manoah versus Skenes. Looking forward to Skenes in the majors, perhaps soon. Glad I didn’t see Manoah’s previous outing with Iowa, when he allowed six runs in three innings. Frankly, I am more interested in Nationals LHP MacKenzie Gore continuing his success against the Blue Jays on Sunday.
As for other starting pitchers I am watching closely this weekend, Friday it is Guardians RHP Tanner Bibee (vs. Angels) and Diamondbacks RHP Slade Cecconi (vs. Padres). Bibee finally got things going last week, tossing seven innings of two-hit, shutout ball at Atlanta, striking out nine. I expect SP2 performance from now on, especially against an underwhelming Angels’ offense sans Mike Trout. Cecconi has gone six innings in each of his two starts, and he looks great. Cecconi should stick around this rotation, as we await further clarity on Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.
For Saturday, what more does Mets RHP Luis Severino need to do to attract fantasy attention? He is rostered in fewer than 30% of ESPN standard leagues, despite a 2.31 ERA, and he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning in his most recent start. He faces the Rays and RHP Zack Littell, who is available in more than 80% of leagues, but when his .389 BABIP normalizes, more will notice. Littell has a 2.64 FIP and has not walked anyone in his past three starts. Forget about his relieving days. Littell may be a top-50 fantasy starter.
Boston’s rotation entered Thursday leading baseball with a 2.03 ERA, yet only two Red Sox starters are rostered in more than 30% of leagues. RHP Cooper Criswell goes Sunday at Minnesota. Criswell has not permitted a run in his past two starts, covering 10 innings. Perhaps the strikeout upside is muted, but it is tough to find a better streamer this weekend. Which pitchers are you watching more closely this weekend?
Hitters to watch this weekend? The Rockies promoted OF prospect Jordan Beck. The Rockies are on the road, but it doesn’t mean Beck cannot make an impression. The Astros should play OF/2B Joey Loperfido this weekend versus the Mariners. Loperfido isn’t a top prospect, but an intriguing one. The Brewers just promoted 3B Tyler Black. It sure looks like he can hit, even against left-handed pitching. Let the kids play! And for those needing stolen bases must look at Nationals OF Jacob Young. He has 12 of them!
Cockcroft: Sevvy, Seth Lugo (55.6% rostered, 6-of-7 quality starts), Erick Fedde (31.6%, 20 K’s his past 2 GS) and Jack Flaherty (23.0%, 50 K’s so far!) are the four most ridiculously under-rostered pitchers in ESPN leagues. Sevvy and Fedde (Saturday, at St. Louis) are the only two scheduled for this weekend, though. Fedde threw 108 pitches, leading to the extra day’s rest this time around, so I’m hopeful that’ll help keep him fantasy-relevant for that outing.
Among the less obvious for streaming, JP Sears (6.1%) has a pair of 20-point outings in his past four and gets the Miami Marlins, one of the worst offenses around, at home on Friday. In a monstrous streak of homer-dom, Clarke Schmidt (15.3%) gets the Detroit Tigers, still a weaker offense against righties than lefties (albeit with a narrower gap this year than last), at home on Saturday. And I can’t believe I’m suggesting him, but Kyle Gibson (11.3%) is riding a streak of three quality starts and gets the automatic-in-fantasy home matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday.
Speaking of homer-dom, Spencer Turnbull? Can we please get a call on his long-term role? Is this a six-man rotation, or is it not? He has looked mighty good as a starter thus far, and he has three pitches getting better-than-33.3% whiff rates (curveball, slider and his new sweeper). He’s not pitching this weekend, I know, but looking at that Taijuan Walker Sunday matchup, I wish the Phillies had just kept Turnbull there and given us another streaming chance then.
Karabell: I’m just happy the Phillies are pitching well and winning games. Ranger Suarez for Cy Young! Walker faces Logan Webb in the Sunday night game on ESPN, and if Walker pitches poorly, there will be rotation controversy! I just want wins. What more can we ask from our favorite baseball team, anyway?
Cockcroft: In a surefire sign of my young age, I missed your question on hitters! The layup is the Pittsburgh Pirates, drawing the Colorado Rockies’ rotation as their opponent, though we’d all be much, much happier if those games were played at Coors Field rather than PNC Park. Oneil Cruz needs to get his season back on track — 17 straight games without a homer and six without an extra-base hit — but this is a good opportunity for it.
The Forecaster projections like the San Diego Padres in a big way. I won’t go so far as to say Jackson Merrill, remarkably hitless in 19 straight at-bats, breaks through against a trio of Arizona Diamondbacks right-handers, but it could happen. More relevant to our purposes, that’s a weekend stack, beginning with 45.7% rostered Jurickson Profar, 10-for-16 since the team moved him into the leadoff spot, and Xander Bogaerts down to fifth, last Sunday.