Men’s Power Rankings: Who gets the fourth 1-seed after this week’s performances?

After a short stretch that featured fewer top-10 upsets than we’ve become used to seeing this season, this past week upended the 1-seed discussion and left plenty at stake entering the week before Selection Sunday.

Tennessee had the inside track for the final 1-seed at the start of the week, but the Volunteers saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on their home floor against Kentucky on Saturday. Arizona then assumed pole position — but that was before the Wildcats suffered a surprising 13-point loss at USC late Saturday night. Earlier in the day, a potential sleeper for the final 1-seed, Iowa State, saw its hopes evaporate with a loss at Kansas State.

The one winner from all the chaos? North Carolina, which went into Duke and knocked off the Blue Devils, clinching the Tar Heels’ first outright ACC regular-season title since 2017.

Arizona’s loss likely takes it out of the mix, leaving a battle between Tennessee and North Carolina for the final spot. The Tar Heels hold the head-to-head edge, beating the Volunteers in Chapel Hill back in November. Tennessee has the slight metrics edge, especially from a predictive perspective. The Vols’ best wins have come against Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama (twice) and Illinois, while Carolina has two wins over Duke and the win over the Vols.

Will either team win its conference tournament? That could be the deciding factor.

On to this week’s awards and rankings …

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On Feb. 7, Longwood was 2-8 in the Big South with losses in 10 of its past 12 games.

On Sunday, the Lancers punched their ticket to the NCAA tournament, knocking off 4-seed Winthrop, 1-seed High Point and 2-seed UNC Asheville on consecutive days to win the conference tournament.

Against Winthrop, Longwood used a 13-2 run early in the second half to take control, getting 20 points from senior guard Walyn Napper to lead the way. For Saturday’s semifinal, the Lancers drew 1-seed High Point, which they had stunned the previous weekend in the regular-season finale, and came back from down 15 in the second half to win in overtime. There was no such drama in the title game, as Longwood jumped out to a 22-6 lead in the opening minutes and never let Asheville in the game.

Griff Aldrich has Longwood dancing for the second time in three years.

Given the stakes, Blackmon’s performance against Austin Peay in the ASUN championship game was one of the best individual efforts we’ve seen all season, if not the best. Blackmon, who entered the postseason as the league’s top scorer, saved his best for what would’ve otherwise been the final 20 minutes of his season. He finished with 43 points Sunday, including 34 after halftime, leading Stetson to its first NCAA tournament in program history.

Blackmon hit three 3s in the first half as Peay led by as many as nine points late in the period. But after halftime, Blackmon was simply unguardable. He had a couple of layups right after halftime and then really got going midway through the half and down the stretch. He scored 30 points in the final 12:30, hitting the go-ahead layup with 1:08 left and then icing the game with free throws in the final minute.

Earlier in the ASUN tournament, he scored 21 in a quarterfinal win over Queens and had 12 points and four dimes in the semis against Jacksonville.

This was arguably the must-see game of the weekend, between the two best teams in the Missouri Valley and two of the best mid-majors in the country. It featured two stars in Robbie Avila and Tucker DeVries, and two coaches — Josh Schertz and Darian DeVries — who will be mainstays on the coaching carousel until they take a bigger job. The biggest factor: Only the winner was guaranteed an NCAA tournament bid.

DeVries hit three early jumpers to stake Drake to an 11-point lead in the first six minutes, and the Bulldogs led Indiana State — with whom they split two regular-season meetings — by as many as 18 in the second half. But within five minutes, the Sycamores had come all the way back to take a two-point lead. Over the final 3:30, it was all Drake. The Bulldogs finished the game on a 10-4 run, with the biggest shot of the game coming from Conor Enright with two minutes left to break the tie and give Drake a three-point lead.

It has been a remarkable four-year run for Spradlin at Morehead State. After taking over for Sean Woods in 2016 and having mixed results for his first four seasons, he has been one of the most consistent mid-major coaches in the country. Since the beginning of the 2020-21 season, Morehead State has won 94 games, gone 58-16 in the Ohio Valley, won at least a share of two regular-season titles and will play in its second NCAA tournament next week.

This season might have been Spradlin’s most impressive job yet. He lost OVC Preseason Player of the Year Mark Freeman to a wrist injury just two weeks before the season began, but replaced his production with NAIA transfer Riley Minix — who ultimately won OVC Player of the Year and then averaged 24.0 points and 8.3 rebounds in three conference tournament wins. The last time the Eagles were in the dance, they hung with West Virginia for the better part of 30 minutes. Will they be a nuisance as a 14-seed once again?

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Three teams with questions

TCU Horned Frogs: Just a few weeks ago, the Horned Frogs seemed comfortably in the field, but they’re really struggling down the stretch — capped by Saturday’s home loss to UCF. They’ve now lost three of four and six of 10. Combined with a really poor nonconference strength of schedule and an underwhelming Quadrant 1 record, they need a win in the Big 12 tourney.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: A similar story to TCU. The Bulldogs have lost four in a row entering the SEC tournament, after their overtime defeat to South Carolina on Saturday. They’re below .500 in the SEC and just 2-8 in true road games, plus a dreadful Quad 4 loss to Southern. A loss to LSU in the SEC tournament and things could get dicey.

Utah Utes: At the turn of the calendar year, Utah was 11-2 overall and 2-0 in the Pac-12, with wins over Wake Forest, Saint Mary’s, BYU and Washington State. Since then, the Utes are 7-11, including a 1-9 record away from home. They had an outside chance at an at-large bid entering last week, but those hopes ended with road losses at Oregon State and Oregon.

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Power Rankings

1. Purdue Boilermakers (28-3)
Previous ranking: 1
This week: Big Ten tournament

Purdue’s Final Four hopes flashed before its eyes in the first half of Sunday’s win over Wisconsin, when Braden Smith had to be helped off the floor and down the tunnel with what appeared to be an ankle injury. (Not to mention Zach Edey‘s brief injury scare.) Smith ultimately returned, finishing with 10 points (on 4-for-16 shooting) and 10 assists. But it did highlight the Boilermakers’ nightmare scenario. Smith routinely plays 36-40 minutes per game, dipping below that just once in the past 11 games. Lance Jones can run the show in spurts, but that’s not an ideal situation.

2. Houston Cougars (28-3)
Previous ranking: 2
This week: Big 12 tournament

While the 30-point margin of Houston’s win over Kansas is eye-opening, it also came completely within the Cougars’ typical game plan. They like to win on the offensive glass and on the defensive end — and they turned 13 offensive rebounds into 17 second-chance points and 18 turnovers into 30 points. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the 30 points off turnovers were the most by any team against Kansas since Long Beach State in 2011.

3. UConn Huskies (28-3)
Previous ranking: 3
This week: Big East tournament

It’s a great sign for the Huskies that Alex Karaban has seemingly shaken off his mini slump from the end of February. In three games against Marquette, Creighton and Villanova to end the month, Karaban averaged 5.7 points and shot 20.8% from the field and 18.8% from 3. In his two games last week, though, the redshirt sophomore seemed back to his best. He had 23 points and shot 5-for-9 from 3 against Marquette and then went for 16 points on 4-for-6 3-point shooting in the win at Providence.

4. North Carolina Tar Heels (25-6)
Previous ranking: 7
This week: ACC tournament

Cormac Ryan‘s experience and 3-point shooting are starting to shine through as the Tar Heels enter the postseason. In the first 24 games of the season, Ryan scored more than 15 points just twice. In his past seven games, he has scored more than 15 four times — including two games in which he made six 3s. Ryan went for 31 points and six 3s against Duke on Saturday, hitting three early 3s to set the tone and then making two 3s and four free throws in the final minutes to seal the game.

5. Tennessee Volunteers (24-7)
Previous ranking: 4
This week: SEC tournament

There seems to be a narrative forming around the Volunteers that they lean too much on All-American Dalton Knecht and are at their best when he’s not shouldering too much of the offensive load. Do the numbers back that narrative up? Let’s take a look. Knecht has scored at least 36 points five times. Tennessee is 3-2 in those games, with the losses coming to Kentucky and North Carolina. In 24 wins this season, he’s averaging 19.8 points. In seven losses, he’s putting up 26.7 points. The Vols did beat Alabama and Kentucky with Knecht being held below his season average, but they also struggled mightily against Kansas and Purdue early in the season when he wasn’t at his best.

6. Creighton Bluejays (23-8)
Previous ranking: 8
This week: Big East tournament

Baylor Scheierman has been the Bluejays’ catalyst over the final month of the season, and Ryan Kalkbrenner is their defensive anchor, but it’s worth shining a light on how Trey Alexander has been playing over the past several weeks. Alexander had never distributed more than nine assists in a game in his career; he had 10 against Seton Hall in late February and 11 against Marquette last weekend. He’s averaging 20.1 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.6 rebounds in his past 13 games. Oh, and he hit the game winner with less than a second left against Villanova on Saturday.

7. Arizona Wildcats (24-7)
Previous ranking: 5
This week: Pac-12 tournament

As mentioned earlier, the Wildcats’ shot at a 1-seed might have disappeared with their listless performance against USC on Saturday night. It’s their latest inexplicable defeat, joining a list that already included at Oregon State on Jan. 25 and the New Year’s Eve loss at Stanford, when they gave up 100 points. Unlike those games, which featured dreadful Arizona defense, Saturday was the Wildcats’ worst offensive performance of the season — and the first time all season they’ve been held to fewer than one point per possession.

8. Kentucky Wildcats (23-8)
Previous ranking: 11
This week: SEC tournament

With the way Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham have performed this season, it’s easy to forget it was Justin Edwards who was ranked No. 1 in the 2023 class coming out of high school. Edwards has struggled to prove his potential during most of his freshman season in Lexington, but the left-handed wing is coming on strong down the stretch and is a dynamic two-way player who can make shots from the perimeter. In his past five games, Edwards is averaging 13.2 points while shooting 69.7% from the field and 64.7% from 3. In his previous 17 games, he averaged 7.1 points on 46.1% shooting.

9. Iowa State Cyclones (24-7)
Previous ranking: 6
This week: Big 12 tournament

The Cyclones had been playing with fire in some recent games, needing a late 11-0 run to close out UCF last weekend and then having to erase a 14-point deficit in the second half against BYU. Things finally caught up to them against Kansas State on Saturday, though. The Wildcats jumped out to a 17-point lead early in the second half, and Iowa State couldn’t get closer than five the rest of the way. Perhaps the more concerning trend: The Cyclones have now scored fewer than one point per possession in four straight games to end the regular season.

10. Marquette Golden Eagles (23-8)
Previous ranking: 9
This week: Big East tournament

Since returning from an ankle injury that limited him to just five minutes against Seton Hall and miss the following game against Villanova at the end of January, Kam Jones has been operating at an incredibly high level offensively. He scored 31 points in his first game back on Feb. 3 and has hit the 30-point mark four times in his past 10 games, including a 30 and nine effort in Saturday’s win over Xavier. Over that span, Jones is putting up 22.3 points while shooting 60.1% from the field and 52.9% from 3-point range.

11. Duke Blue Devils (24-7)
Previous ranking: 10
This week: ACC tournament

Two of Duke’s three worst defensive performances this season have come against North Carolina, with the third coming at Wake Forest a couple of weeks ago. In the Wake Forest and first Carolina games, Duke’s opponent found it far too easy to finish around the rim, and hardly ever turned the ball over. In all three games, one opposing player got hot from behind the arc: Harrison Ingram for the Tar Heels the first time, Hunter Sallis for the Deacons and on Cormac Ryan in UNC’s most recent win.

12. Auburn Tigers (24-7)
Previous ranking: 14
This week: SEC tournament

Denver Jones arrived at Auburn last spring with the reputation of a scorer after averaging 20.1 points at FIU in 2022-23. But he hadn’t been asked to produce at that level for most of this season, recording just five double-figure scoring efforts in his first 20 games. In his past 11 games, though, he has hit double figures eight times, including his past four games. On Saturday, he scored a season-high 21 points and made seven 3-pointers.

13. Baylor Bears (22-9)
Previous ranking: 12
This week: Big 12 tournament

Baylor faced big deficits in both games this past week. The Bears were able to overcome a 14-point margin against Texas on Monday, but after erasing Texas Tech‘s 16-point second-half lead on Saturday, the Red Raiders retook the lead and ran away with a 10-point win. One plus entering the postseason is Ja’Kobe Walter is averaging 15.9 points over his past nine games — which came after a nine-game stretch in which he averaged 11.7 points on 29.7% shooting.

14. Illinois Fighting Illini (23-8)
Previous ranking: 13
This week: Big Ten tournament

After hitting double figures in 10 of 11 games back in December and January, Quincy Guerrier hit that mark in only three of his next 10, as Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask emerged as one of the Big Ten’s best duos and Coleman Hawkins was fantastic as a third option. But this past week, Guerrier had his best back-to-back performances in six weeks, going for 12 points and three 3s against Purdue and then finishing with 14 points and 13 boards against Iowa.

15. Utah State Aggies (26-5)
Previous ranking: Unranked
This week: Mountain West tournament

The Aggies clinched their first outright Mountain West regular-season title with Saturday’s last-second win over New Mexico. It caps an incredible first season under Danny Sprinkle, as the Aggies didn’t return a single point from last season. But Sprinkle brought a couple of stars with him from Montana State — Great Osobor, Darius Brown II — and it has been the perfect combination. Osobor and Brown together recorded 40 points, 18 rebounds and 12 assists in the win over the Lobos.

16. South Carolina Gamecocks (25-6)
Previous ranking: In the waiting room
This week: SEC tournament

South Carolina dropped one at home to Tennessee on Wednesday but bounced back with a road victory at Mississippi State in overtime. B.J. Mack broke out of his three-game slump with 25 points against the Bulldogs, including two late free throws in regulation and eight straight points in overtime to carry the Gamecocks to the win. Mack had totaled just 16 points in that three-game stretch. Another bright spot is Collin Murray-Boyles, who has this statline from his past 10 games: 16.0 points, 8.2 rebounds, 69.8% from the field.

Dropped out: Kansas Jayhawks (No. 15), Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 16)

In the waiting room

Kansas Jayhawks: The 30-point drubbing at the hands of Houston was the Jayhawks’ first 30-point Big 12 loss since 2000, and the first time they have ever scored fewer than 50 points against a Big 12 opponent. Combined with the injuries to Kevin McCullar Jr. (who didn’t play in the second half) and Hunter Dickinson (who sustained a dislocated shoulder on Saturday), there are concerns about Kansas.

Alabama Crimson Tide: Things could have been much worse for Alabama had it not pulled the overtime win over Arkansas to end the season, as things seemed to be unraveling prior to the late surge. The Tide had lost three of four entering Saturday, allowing more than 100 points in two of those games. They’ve still allowed at least 88 points in seven of their past nine.

BYU Cougars: It could have been a banner week for the Cougars, who led Iowa State on the road by 14 points early in the second before the Cyclones came back to win. They did bounce back with a win over Oklahoma State to keep their hopes of a top-four seed alive. A run to the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament — including a win over Texas Tech — could get that done.