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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
The NHL All-Star break is practically a sabbatical, as the league’s 32 teams all have bye weeks scheduled around this weekend’s festivities in Toronto. It means a solid block of time to spend with loved ones, recharge weary bodies and reset mentally before the second half of the season begins.
That goes for the participants in NHL All-Star Weekend as well, even though their break involves glad-handing sponsors, playing Connor McDavid‘s skills competition reindeer games and trying not to suck wind during the 3-on-3 games on Saturday. It’s a bit more taxing than, say, swinging in a hammock on a Mexican beach. But it also isn’t the grind of the playoff race, either.
But the grind begins again soon, not only for those players chasing the Stanley Cup but the ones who are pursuing individual awards, statistical benchmarks, new contracts or simply a strong finish to a disappointing season — possibly with another team.
We’ve placed each player in one of the 2024 NHL All-Star tiers, taking into account how their season has been, where it might be headed and the roles they’ll play in shaping that future.
The MVP candidates
Nikita Kucherov, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche
Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers
David Pastrnak, RW, Boston Bruins
The next NHL Awards Watch will drop next week, but the early returns suggest that these players all have case for the Hart Trophy this season — although some cases are certainly more substantial than others.
MacKinnon has been on one of the most epic offensive tears of his NHL career, with 55 points in his past 27 games. There’s an 18-point difference between MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen (66) through 49 games. Again, no spoilers, but the Avalanche star is very much near the front of the pack for league MVP.
And yet through 49 games, MacKinnon didn’t lead the NHL in points or points per game. Kucherov did, with 85 points and a 1.73 points per game average. The Lightning star is 31 points clear of the team’s second-leading scorer, Brayden Point (54), and has dragged Tampa Bay through injury and adversity into a playoff seed. His points per 60 minutes average (4.7) is the same as when he won the Hart Trophy in 2018-19.
Pastrnak is also a country mile ahead of the next highest scorer on the Bruins, leading Brad Marchand by 25 points with his 72 points in 49 games.
Matthews is also having an outstanding season comparatively. His 40 goals are 17 clear of William Nylander, the Leafs’ second-leading scorer. Overall, Matthews is on a 70-goal pace, something that hasn’t been accomplished since Teemu Selanne and Alex Mogilny both hit 76 goals in 1992-93.
Then there’s McDavid, who started slow before doing Connor McDavid things for the rest of the first half: 57 points since Kris Knoblauch took over as head coach on Nov. 13, including 26 points during Edmonton’s recent winning streak.
These five players are well-positioned in the MVP race. But there is another …
The Vancouver Five
Brock Boeser, RW
Thatcher Demko, G
Quinn Hughes, D
J.T. Miller, C
Elias Pettersson, C
We grouped Hughes here because the five core All-Star players for the stunningly good Canucks deserve their own tier. But make no mistake that the 24-year-old is very much in the MVP race as well, trying to become the first defenseman to win the award since Chris Pronger of the St. Louis Blues in 1999-2000. Pronger was 49th in scoring that season. Hughes was ninth in points through 49 games, skating 24:30 per game and seeing time in all situations.
Vancouver has been nothing short of extraordinary under coach Rick Tocchet. Consider that the Oilers won 16 straight games but only gained six points on Pacific-leading Vancouver because the Canucks went 10-2-2 during that stretch. Their .724 points percentage would be the highest in franchise history if it holds through the end of the season.
There are a lot of impressive numbers for these five players: Miller’s 67 points, Pettersson’s 64 points and Hughes’s 64 points; Boeser’s 30 goals; and Demko’s .920 save percentage. But the most important numbers are 49 and 35: The former being the total games played by the four skaters, none of whom have missed a game this season, and the latter the number of starts for Demko, tied for fourth most in the league.
If the core stays healthy, there’s no telling what the Canucks can accomplish this season. Perhaps even something that no Canadian team has accomplished since 1993.
Players who will define the rest of the season
Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins
Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets
Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey Devils
Jake Oettinger, G, Dallas Stars
Four players with two different lots in life at the moment.
The Jets hit a little bump before the break, losing four of six games, but the combination of their team defense and Hellebuyck has solidified them as a playoff contender. There’s no more important player on the Jets than Hellebuyck, who leads the NHL in goals saved above expected (22.1) through 35 games in what could be another Vezina Trophy-winning season.
Oettinger has had a very uncharacteristic season, rife with injury and ineffectiveness. He has a .900 save percentage in 28 games. That the Stars have a .673 points percentage is a testament to the team that’s in front of Oettinger this season — one that could challenge for a championship if their All-Star goalie finds his groove.
Those players are in postseason slots right now. Crosby and Hughes are desperately trying to push their teams into one.
Sid’s been incredible, again: 50 points in 46 games, trying to will the Penguins to the playoffs. He might have to be even better in the second half given the team’s inconsistency … and it might not matter if GM Kyle Dubas decides they’re deadline dealers with players such as pending free agent Jake Guentzel headed out the door.
Hughes will attend the All-Star Weekend in street clothes, joining brother Quinn in drafting a team but being unable to perform on the ice due to an upper-body injury that’s kept him out since Jan. 5. There’s one path to the playoffs for the Devils, and it’s on Hughes’ back: They’re 3-6-1 since his injury, looking benign offensively. He’s fifth in the NHL in points per game average (1.41). They need him back and fast, or else New Jersey might have to write off this season as an injury-riddled growing pain for a burgeoning contender.
Pivotal to the playoff push
Sebastian Aho, C, Carolina Hurricanes
Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Florida Panthers
Kyle Connor, LW, Winnipeg Jets
Leon Draisaitl, C, Edmonton Oilers
Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche
Vincent Trocheck, C, New York Rangers
All of these players are on teams in playoff seeds at the moment, each playing a vital role in keeping them there.
Entering Tuesday, Makar was actually the highest scoring player in his group (58 points in 44 games) right head of Draisaitl (57). Both of them are playing in the shadows of teammates in the MVP conversation, but they are absolutely critical to the Stanley Cup aspirations of the Avalanche and Oilers.
When Connor plays, Connor scores goals. His 0.58 goals per game average is 10th in the NHL this season, a fraction behind Crosby. Trocheck has only 15 goals, but his 0.94 points per game average would be the highest of his 11-year NHL career.
Aho is leading the Hurricanes up the standings to challenge the Rangers in the Metro Division, as the man they call Sea Bass has 34 points in his past 16 games.
Finally, there’s Bobrovsky, who is having a solid season in traditional and advanced stats, and will inevitably morph into Playoff Bob again for the Stanley Cup-aspiring Panthers.
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Second half bounce-backs
Alexandar Georgiev, G, Colorado Avalanche
Boone Jenner, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Minnesota Wild
Igor Shesterkin, G, New York Rangers
Shesterkin has never finished a season with a save percentage lower than .916. He arrives at the All-Star Weekend with a save percentage of .899 through 32 games for the Rangers, who have inexplicably gotten much stronger goaltending from 38-year-old Jonathan Quick than their established starter.
No goalie has appeared in more games than Georgiev (41), which is also why no goalie has more wins (27) than the primary beneficiary of MacKinnon’s dominance either. That said, Colorado would probably like something a little stronger than 29th in goals saved above expected from their netminder in the second half.
After two solid seasons in Columbus, Jenner’s scoring averages have plummeted in 2023-24, as he’s on pace for fewer than 40 points this season. He missed a good chunk of the season with a fractured jaw, however, so a solid second half should be on the menu now that he can eat solid foods again.
Kaprizov also had some injury trouble this season. His output is slightly down from the past two seasons, but he still has 45 points in 42 games. The Wild currently have only a 2% chance of making the playoffs, per Money Puck. How would a torrid scoring streak from Kaprizov change them for the better?
Playing for pay
Elias Lindholm, C, Calgary Flames
Sam Reinhart, RW, Florida Panthers
Jeremy Swayman, G, Boston Bruins
Cam Talbot, G, Los Angeles Kings
Four fascinating pending free agents populate the NHL All-Star Game. In the short-term, Lindholm is the one to watch. The Flames center has been the focus of trade deadline attention for the entire season, given his contract status with Calgary and as the “last piece of a championship puzzle” for potential teams like Colorado before reaching unrestricted free agency.
Reinhart isn’t going anywhere at the trade deadline, but he will be diving into a pile of money this summer as the second-leading goal scorer in the NHL through 49 games. He’s 11th in the NHL in goals scored over the past three seasons (101).
Talbot signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Kings last summer as a low cost way to help address their goaltending. Suffice to say that it worked until it didn’t, and Talbot has just 2.5 goals saved above expected in 32 games this season. The All-Star Weekend might be like a bell ringing for a staggering fighter, as Talbot went 0-6-2 in eight January appearances (.873 save percentage).
Swayman, meanwhile, is a pending restricted free agent who is arbitration eligible. By any statistical measurement, he’s been the Bruins’ best goaltender. As Teddy KGB said in “Rounders,” “Pay dat man his money.”
What about the Leafs?
Mitch Marner, RW, Toronto Maple Leafs
William Nylander, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
Morgan Rielly, D Toronto Maple Leafs
With the All-Star Game being held in the centre of the hockey universe, of course the Maple Leafs get their own tier. Thanks to a recent 8-2-0 run by the Lightning, the Leafs entered the All-Star break in the first wild-card spot based on points if not points percentage and riding a three-game winning streak.
The break comes at the right time for Nylander. He signed a $92 million contract extension on Jan. 8 and then went scoreless in seven of his next 10 games.
By now, we know what the Leafs are: a team that soars on the backs of its core four players, including Matthews, which has to overcome goaltending that’s in the bottom third of the league to thrive. They rise, they fall, but always remain in a playoff seed. They’re a team that will be judged not on their place in the standings at season’s end but how many games they play beyond it.
Trapped in the bubble
Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders
Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW, Seattle Kraken
Jesper Bratt, LW, New Jersey Devils
Alex DeBrincat, RW, Detroit Red Wings
Filip Forsberg, C, Nashville Predators
Clayton Keller, C Arizona Coyotes
Travis Konecny, LW/RW, Philadelphia Flyers
Robert Thomas, C, St. Louis Blues
The rapid decline of the Kings suddenly had Western Conference bubble teams thinking two wild-card spots could be in play instead of one — which was not the thinking at the beginning of January. Thomas’ Blues managed to move ahead of Forsberg’s Predators for the last wild-card spot before the break, with Bjorkstrand’s Kraken right behind them. Keller and the Coyotes remain in striking distance, but they need to capture some of that Mullett Magic (15-9-0) on the road, where they’re 8-13-3.
Konecny and the Flyers have been one of the best stories in the East this season, but some of the air has leaked out of the balloon. They followed a five-game winning streak with a five-game losing streak before the All-Star break. Overall, they’ve won seven of their past 19 games.
That leaves the door open for teams like Bratt’s Devils, who still have a 20% chance of making the cut, and Barzal’s Islanders, who have about an 11% chance of making the playoffs. New coach Patrick Roy has yet to light a fire under them, but if anyone can …
Then there are DeBrincat and the Red Wings, who have over a 50% chance of making the playoffs after a recent surge. It’s a team that’s hung tough through some hiccups — including a 2-8-1 plummet that would have derailed other clubs — to remain in the hunt for its first playoff berth since 2016.
Macklin Celebrini’s new friends?
Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres
Tomas Hertl, C, San Jose Sharks
Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal Canadiens
Brady Tkachuk, LW, Ottawa Senators
Frank Vatrano, RW, Anaheim Ducks
Tom Wilson, LW, Washington Capitals
According to Money Puck, all of these teams have less than an 8% chance of making the playoffs, with the Sabres having the greatest potential to qualify at just 7.8%.
The good news is that all of the teams still own their first-round draft picks to maximize the potential to draft Macklin Celebrini, the Boston University center expected to go first overall.
The bad news? So does another team that isn’t represented in the 2024 NHL All-Star Game: The Chicago Blackhawks, who have had their share of lottery luck lately, to the chagrin of the rest of the league.