-
Dick Vitale, College Basketball analyst
The parity in the men’s college basketball landscape has never been more evident, as mid-major programs — armed with talent, depth and a fearless mindset — have consistently challenged the status quo. These teams have not only secured impressive victories, but they have demonstrated a level of consistency and resilience that makes them dangerous adversaries as the 2023-24 season progresses.
I eagerly await the opportunity to witness these emerging mid-major powerhouses take on the established giants. The unpredictability of college basketball has been the defining narrative of the first few months of this season, setting the stage for an exhilarating second half and an NCAA tournament that promises to be filled with surprises, upsets and the potential for mid-major programs to make deep runs and etch their names into the annals of March Madness history.
Here are my picks to click on the road to the tournament.
It’s been an up-and-down pre-conference journey for the Owls, who enjoyed the success of knocking off the Arizona Wildcats in double overtime in Las Vegas and another neutral site win over a highly regarded Texas A&M Aggies squad — then had a couple of head-scratching Quadrant 4 losses to the Bryant Bulldogs, the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles and the Charlotte 49ers. With a solid top 30 NET ranking, FAU is favored in every game until the final four contests of the season when it faces off twice against the Memphis Tigers for what will likely be the regular-season AAC title.
The Tigers are sitting solidly in the top 30 NET rankings with a 12-1 nonconference record (and 1-0 in Ivy League play) and three Quad 2 wins. The Tigers, who made a Sweet 16 run last year, are looking to make back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances for the first time since doing three straight from 1996 to 1998. Princeton’s 9-0 start this season is also its best in more than 100 years.
The Sycamores are on pace to do something that hasn’t been done on the quiet Terre Haute, Indiana, campus in over 20 years — back-to-back 20-win seasons. They’re also on pace to return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2011. Last year’s 23-win record has given this team the confidence to compete, and it is the favorite to win its first MVC regular-season title since 2000. With a top 35 NET ranking, it is solidly in the field and will try to rise above the No. 12 line in Joe Lunardi’s projections.
The Rams captured their best wins over the Creighton Bluejays and the in-state rival Colorado Buffaloes and are 5-2 versus Quads 1 (1-1) and 2 (4-1) opponents. They also own a neutral site win against the Washington Huskies. Their only losses came to the Saint Mary’s Gaels and Utah State Aggies. Life on the road is tough, so look for CSU to be tested at Nevada, San Diego State and New Mexico. Projected a 5-seed by Joe Lunardi, the Rams need to keep winning to hold that line.
In his third season at New Mexico, Richard Pitino has brought the Lobos back to relevance on the national scene. Jamal Mashburn Jr., who came with Pitino from Minnesota, returned to the lineup after missing seven games due to injury. With a top 40 NET ranking, the Lobos could get off the bubble, as currently projected by Lunardi.
This is another team that rolled through its nonconference schedule and collected a pair of Quad 1 wins over the Washington Huskies and TCU Horned Frogs. The Wolf Pack, who find themselves solidly on the 8-line in tournament projections with a top 30 NET ranking, will have to hold serve at home and steal a road win or two.
By far the best team in the Sun Belt Conference, despite finally losing a game, followed its overtime season-opening win over Michigan State by putting on a scoring clinic, ranking fifth in the nation (88.8 points per game). With one Quad 1 win and a NET ranking of 56, JMU needs to run the rest of the table to rise into a single digit seed line for the NCAA tournament.
As the only WAC team with a top 50 NET ranking, the Lopes are poised to be the lone conference representative in the latest NCAA tournament projections. Thanks to a challenging nonconference schedule, GCU owns two Quad 1 wins and one Quad 2 victory. Bryce Drew enters the second half of the season on an 11-game win streak and is favored to complete a perfect league slate. Drew, who took the Lopes to the NCAA tournament in 2021 (No. 15 seed) and 2023 (No. 14 seed), could see this team boast its highest seed ever in March.