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Jeff Borzello, ESPN Staff Writer
We’re about 10 days into the 2023-24 men’s college basketball season, so it feels like the perfect time for sweeping narratives and overreactions across the sport, right?
The first week of the season featured two top-five teams losing at home and more than 15 power conference teams suffering losses to teams from outside power conferences, while the Champions Classic and Arizona‘s trip to Duke offered a look at some potential national championship contenders going head-to-head. We don’t have enough data or evidence to back up many opinions at this point, and it’s still too early to truly gauge teams and players, but narratives are certainly forming.
A year ago in this column, we correctly called Brandon Miller as the best freshman in the country and Villanova taking a step back in its first season post-Jay Wright, but hints of a breakout season for Mady Sissoko didn’t quite come to fruition.
Let’s see how we do this season.
Here are six major storylines to monitor after a week and a half of men’s college basketball action.
0:29
Keshad Johnson sinks impossible and-1 to give Arizona late lead
Keshad Johnson somehow drains an off-balance and-1 bucket to put Arizona on top over Duke.
Arizona is a national championship contender
What’s going on?
Arizona made arguably the biggest statement of the first 10 days of the season by going into Cameron Indoor Stadium and knocking off then-No. 2 Duke. The Wildcats looked like a dramatically different outfit than the last couple of years: Tougher, more physical, better defensively. That’s noteworthy because in those last couple of years they won 61 games and received a 1-seed and 2-seed in the NCAA tournament. San Diego State transfer Keshad Johnson has added a different dimension to the frontcourt, while Kylan Boswell and North Carolina transfer Caleb Love give Tommy Lloyd a pair of playmakers with size at the guard spots.
Will it last?
If Arizona continues to defend like it has through three games, it should be near the top of the rankings the entire season. Johnson was one of the best defensive players in the Mountain West before he transferred, while Boswell and Love have shown a different level of physicality on the defensive end compared to the departed Kerr Kriisa. Offensively, too, things are going to look different. Going from Azuolas Tubelis to Johnson is probably a net loss in a vacuum, but the latter provides more versatility. And, Boswell and Love are two guys who can go and get their own shot — something Arizona has struggled with in postseason play.
What they’re saying
“They’re better this year than last year,” said one coach who scouted them this season and last. “Specifically, they’re better defensively. Caleb Love is a big upgrade to Kriisa at the point, in terms of his physicality and his defense. On the perimeter they defend a lot better. Guarding the ball, staying in front. [Oumar] Ballo can overwhelm you. It’s a different look with Johnson at the 4, but they’re more physical and more athletic than they were last season.
“With Kriisa and Tubelis, you could drive them a little bit. With Johnson, Love and Boswell, they do a better job of guarding the ball — and with Johnson and Ballo, they’re very, very hard to deal with at both ends on the glass. Love is a huge upgrade at point guard on Kriisa. Their transition offense is better with Johnson. And Ballo is finishing around the basket better than I remember. His ability when the shot goes up, you have to face-guard him to physically keep him off the backboard. [Pelle] Larsson has taken a step up as well.”
0:25
Kylan Boswell’s acrobatic bucket adds to Arizona’s lead
Kylan Boswell’s unorthodox hook shot somehow goes in for Arizona
What’s going on?
This is a team that entered the season as a chic Final Four pick after its exhibition win at Michigan State — and the Volunteers haven’t disappointed thus far, scoring at least 80 points in all three of their regular-season wins over Tennessee Tech, Wisconsin and Wofford. Central to those wins has been Knecht. More specifically, the Northern Colorado transfer has been arguably the best player on the floor. The 6-foot-6 wing is averaging 19.7 points and 3.7 rebounds, with his best performance coming at Wisconsin, when he finished with 24 points and five rebounds. Rick Barnes has had an elite defense the last three years, but Tennessee has lacked offensive pop in March. Knecht helps fix that problem.
Will it last?
What’s interesting about Knecht’s production so far is he’s not shooting from the perimeter the way he did at Northern Colorado. After making better than 38% of his 3-pointers last season, he’s down to 28.6% this season. There should be some positive regression in that area, even if he’s not as effective off the bounce against stiffer competition. The next couple of weeks should be telling for how consistent Knecht will be all season; the Vols play in the Maui Invitational, where they will face Syracuse, then Purdue or Gonzaga, then potentially Kansas or Marquette. And then they return to the mainland and head to North Carolina.
What they’re saying
“He’s a pro,” said one coach who scouted Tennessee this season. “He’s not going to be in as many ball-handling situations as he was at Northern Colorado. He’ll get more catch-and-shoot opportunities, he’ll play off other guys. He’s still finding opportunities — and the ball-handling and the athleticism comes into play in transition for him. He’s more efficient with better players around him. You’ve got a guy who can play off the ball and catch-and-shoot or be a ball-handler in pick-and-roll and rise up over you because of his size. Last year with Tennessee, you could go under everything, get them to bump back and shoot 3s and they would throw the ball inside. I don’t think [Jonas] Aidoo is that guy and so I think Rick went out and got guys like Knecht and [Jordan] Gainey, who could catch-and-shoot and spread the floor. We can’t have the same game plan [against them] this year as last year.”
Michigan State was overrated as a preseason top-five team
What’s going on?
The No. 4 team in the preseason AP poll has now lost two of its first three games to open the campaign — including an overtime loss at home to James Madison and a Champions Classic defeat to Duke Tuesday night. The most noteworthy stat from the Spartans’ opening three games: They’re shooting 8-for-50 from 3-point range on the season. It’s not just the perimeter shooting. A.J. Hoggard, who was playing like one of the best guards in the country down the stretch of 2022-23, is averaging 5.0 points on 19.2% shooting in the past ten days. Tom Izzo needs him to be a catalyst offensively. And starting center Mady Sissoko averaged 3.0 points and 3.5 rebounds in the two losses, fouling out against JMU.
Will it last?
The 3-point shooting numbers can’t continue to be this bad — and we’re already seeing improvement in that area, as the Spartans were 6-for-19 from behind the arc against the Blue Devils. Also keep in mind that MSU ranked third nationally last season in 3-point shooting, making better than 39% of its perimeter attempts. But, Izzo will need to find a way to replace Joey Hauser, who was a key part of the elite shooting, making 46.1% of his 3s. The spacing he allowed on the offensive end also opened up driving lanes for Tyson Walker, Hoggard and Jaden Akins.
What they’re saying
“They are not very confident right now,” one coach who scouted Michigan State said. “To be fair, Izzo teams really get a lot better in January once he knows his team — or at least historically they do. They run a play every time, like usual, the same stuff they usually run. But there’s no Hauser and a lack of confidence shooting the ball. And Walker is the only one who can create shots for them.”
“They can’t shoot the ball,” another coach said. “Their offense and execution was great against Duke. They were getting wide-open shots. But they just can’t make open perimeter shots. Tyson Walker is a good player. But he can’t be the only guy. He needs one or two other players around him that can help shoulder the load. I like Coen Carr, though. I think he’s a problem in a year or two.”
Michigan could be this season’s Marquette
What’s going on?
Michigan was picked 11th in the preseason Big Ten media poll following the departures of Hunter Dickinson, Kobe Bufkin and Jett Howard, and on the heels of a disappointing 2022-23 season in which the Wolverines missed the NCAA tournament. But the Wolverines are steamrolling their competition right now, beating UNC Asheville, Youngstown State and St. John’s by an average of nearly 24 points and scoring at least 89 in each. It wouldn’t be unprecedented for a team picked that low in a major conference to go on and be a championship contender; Marquette after all was picked ninth in the Big East last season and won the league.
Will it last?
The team is still being coached by Phil Martelli, as head coach Juwan Howard is recovering from heart surgery he underwent in September. But there are some noticeable changes regardless of who is on the sideline. This Wolverines team is playing faster, shooting more 3s and sharing the ball much better than last season, and a big part of that is the emergence of 5-11 sophomore point guard Dug McDaniel. He’s averaging 21.3 points and 6.3 assists through three games, putting an incredible amount of pressure on defenses with the ball in his hands. Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua also looks like he’ll remain a constant; the skilled power forward is averaging 17.0 points and 8.0 boards. The upcoming Battle 4 Atlantis will be a good barometer for whether UM will be in the conversation behind Purdue at the top of the Big Ten standings. The Wolverines open with Memphis.
What they’re saying
“I think they’re pretty good. That St. John’s game proved it,” one coach who scouted Michigan said. “They’re shooting the s–t out of it. That was a question coming into the season and you can say it’s a fluke, but it’s three games now — plus the scrimmage against Marquette. Olivier Nkamhoua is criminally underrated. He’s gotta be one of the top 10 transfers in the country. He’s been huge for them. And it doesn’t all necessarily show up in the box score. He crashes the glass, puts pressure on the defense, not heavy volume but super efficient. And he’s brought some toughness, which they needed.
“Dug McDaniel is one of the best point guards in the country. He’s been really, really good. Making the sophomore jump. Making good decisions, when to score, when to get others involved. I worry about their ball-handling depth a little until [Jaelin] Llewellyn comes back. But all these guys know their role. [Will] Tschetter is young, but he knows who he is. Tarris Reed Jr. is going to continue to get better. [Terrance] Williams II is that junkyard dog type of guy you need. Makes winning plays. He’s a battle-tested, tough guy. He’s played a lot of games at this point. He’s probably better as a 4 than a 3, though.
“They’re one guard or wing away from being really dangerous. I don’t know if anyone on their roster, as it’s currently constructed, is dynamic enough. Other than McDaniel, there’s [Nimari] Burnett — if he plays every game like he did against St. John’s, which is not something I’d bet on, they’ve got a chance to really do some damage. I just don’t know if he can sustain that.”
0:17
Dalton Knecht scores late to seal win for Tennessee
Dalton Knecht scores late to seal win for Tennessee
Ja’Kobe Walter is this season’s best freshman
What’s going on?
There might not be a freshman with the dominance of Brandon Miller this season, but Walter’s debut for Baylor against Auburn earlier this month gave the impression he won’t be too far behind. Walter finished with 28 points on just 13 shots from the field, making four 3s and grabbing six rebounds. It wasn’t an anomaly, either. Against Kansas City on Tuesday, Walter went for 23 points and another four 3s. Through four games, he’s averaging 18.0 points and making better than 39% of his 3s. Walter was a five-star prospect coming out of high school and is a projected top-10 pick by ESPN in the 2024 NBA draft.
Will it last?
In the preseason, it was impossible to ignore the buzz coming out of Waco surrounding Walter. He was a top-10 recruit in the 2023 class, so an immediate impact was also expected, but NBA scouts that had been through Baylor’s gym in October were blown away. So Walter’s start to the season hasn’t exactly been a surprise. Whether he keeps it up all season will depend on his perimeter shot. In his two big games against the Tigers and the Roos, Walter shot 8-for-13 from 3. In the other two games, against John Brown and Gardner-Webb, Walter averaged 10.5 points and shot 1-for-10 from behind the arc.
What they’re saying
“You can’t give him any open looks,” one coach who scouted Baylor said. “He’s a deadly 3-point shooter, he’s got size, he’s got NBA potential. He stretches the defense, so just him being on the court opens up driving lanes for the other guys because you can’t help off him. Even when it’s not his night, he still does the little things. He defends, he moves the ball, he rebounds. That’s what the next-level guys are looking for. There’s not much letdown in that area. His perimeter shooting makes them a premier team in the country. The other guards, [Jayden] Nunn and [RayJ] Dennis, it’s well-documented what they can do with the ball in their hands. If Walter gets going, it turns into one-on-one for Nunn and Dennis because he stretches the defense from NBA range. He’s the key.”
0:13
Ja’Kobe Walter drains 3-pointer vs. UM Kansas City Roos
Ja’Kobe Walter drains 3-pointer vs. UM Kansas City Roos
What’s going on?
On what initially looked like a fairly underwhelming opening night slate, JMU stole headlines and picked up a win that should have staying power all season: A 79-76 overtime victory at then-No. 4 Michigan State. The Dukes followed that up with a double-overtime win at Kent State, which made the NCAA tournament last season and hadn’t lost a home game since January of the 2021-22 season. There was no letdown performance against Howard — another NCAA tournament team from last season — either. The Dukes were ranked in Monday’s AP poll for the first time in program history.
Will it last?
Comparing anyone to last season’s Owls team is setting impossibly high expectations, to be fair. That team was 31-3 entering the NCAA tournament, and then went to the Final Four. And, James Madison was seconds from losing to Kent State. If the Dukes don’t have the miracle comeback to force overtime, we might not even be talking about them right now. But it did happen, so here we are. And, this team isn’t a fluke. They were picked in the preseason to win the Sun Belt. They play fast (10th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric), they shoot — and make — a lot of 3s (20th nationally in 3-point percentage), they’re old (seventh in KenPom’s experience metric) and they have a legitimate go-to guy in Terrence Edwards.
What they’re saying
“[Mark] Byington is a really good, underrated coach. He gets them to play loose. They run some good s–t and they have some high IQ basketball players,” one coach who scouted JMU this season and last season said. “They’ve identified mid-major transfers really well, they do a good job of finding the right guys. This kid Michael Green is really good. He’s not big, but he understands how to play. You go under a ball screen, he’s going to shoot it. Terrence Edwards has made himself into a top-level player. That guy can drive it, he can shoot it, guards different positions. [T.J.] Bickerstaff was OK at Boston College, but he fits great in this system, rolls to the basket, makes good decisions. And they can go to the bench. Quincy Allen played at Colorado. They’ve got threats all over the place and Byington gives them confidence.
“You try to take some of their 3s away, but they pass it so well and it’s hard to keep up with their pace. That trip to Italy helped get all the transfers on the same page. I thought they were good last year, but I think they’re a lot better this year. [Vado] Morse was good, but he’s not the passer that Green is. And then [Xavier] Brown comes off the bench and gets after you full-court. They’ve got something going there.”