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Jeff Borzello, ESPN Staff Writer
The biggest question entering the 2022-23 college basketball centered around North Carolina. Were the 2022 NCAA tournament Tar Heels a sign of things to come that season? The answer was a definitive no — and it ended up being the top storyline for most of the year.
On the eve of a new campaign, there’s no single clear-cut season-defining question that will shape the 2024 national championship discussion. There are dozens of intriguing title-related storylines, though, from Duke and Kansas at the top of the rankings to Big East supremacy to Zach Edey to Florida Atlantic running it back to the Final Four.
Right now, everything is on paper, where it’s much easier to boil down a team’s potential fatal flaws to one or two specific things. That will change over the next six months, of course, but it’s still worth trying to address them now.
So, here are the 10 biggest questions that will determine that national championship conversation for the 2023-24 college basketball season.
0:23
Baylor’s Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua drops in and-1 through a double team
Baylor’s Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua muscles in a tough and-1 bucket while being defended by two people.
Jon Scheyer has the players to win it all. Can he piece everything together and win a title?
In the first year of the post-Mike Krzyzewski era, it took some time for Duke to put it all together. The Blue Devils suffered some surprising losses in ACC play: at Wake Forest, a 24-point defeat to NC State, at Virginia Tech. But they then went on a six-game winning streak to end the regular season and rolled through the ACC tournament, looking like a potential Final Four sleeper. That came to an abrupt halt via their loss to Tennessee in the second round of the NCAA tournament. But now, Scheyer has reloaded and national championship expectations have been placed on his team.
Four starters are back, led by All-American Kyle Filipowski and potential lottery pick Tyrese Proctor. The Blue Devils are also bringing in the No. 2 recruiting class in the country, a group that features three five-star prospects. Most notably, Caleb Foster is generating a considerable amount of preseason hype from NBA scouts. If all the pieces fit — and Filipowski stays healthy — Duke could very well be in the title hunt all season.
Is Zach Edey a shoo-in to repeat as Wooden Award winner, and can Purdue forget about its first-round loss to help the Big Ten end its decades-long national championship drought?
This is a loaded question with a three-part answer. There’s only been one two-time Wooden Award winner, Ralph Sampson, back in the early 1980s — but Edey has as strong a chance as anyone has had since then. Of course, we said something similar about Oscar Tshiebwe before last season, and that didn’t quite work out. The difference with Edey is his floor is so high. He didn’t play particularly well against Arkansas in last weekend’s exhibition game, but still finished with 15 points and nine boards. If Purdue lives up to expectations and Edey is Edey, it will be hard to see him not being the favorite.
0:21
Alijah Martin flies in for two-handed flush as FAU win C-USA
Florida Atlantic defeat UAB to win the C-USA conference title and advance to the NCAA tournament.
As for the Big Ten title drought, there are two prime candidates this season: The Boilermakers and Michigan State. Both are ranked in the top four in most preseason polls. Purdue’s upset loss to Fairleigh Dickinson shouldn’t be much of a factor; this is a team that won 22 of its first 23 games and won the Big Ten tournament title mere days before the historic defeat. The guards have returned and are a year older, and they should have more surrounding Edey with the addition of Lance Jones and a bigger role for Trey Kaufman-Renn.
Meanwhile, Michigan State’s strength is its backcourt, which bodes well for March. The Spartans hit their stride in the NCAA tournament last season and were an overtime loss away from the Elite Eight. Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins form one of the elite perimeter groups in the country, so the key will come down to the interior. Can Mady Sissoko find some consistency? Is freshman Xavier Booker ready?
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Jamal Shead’s 3 cuts Houston’s deficit to 6
Jamal Shead’s 3 cuts Houston’s deficit to 6
Bill Self still has two key players left over from his 2022 national championship team in starting point guard Dajuan Harris Jr. and K.J. Adams Jr. — the latter of whom was a role player on that title-winning side. Kevin McCullar Jr. is a Big 12 veteran who is the perfect glue guy for this group. But it is the addition of Dickinson that propelled the Jayhawks to the No. 1 spot in the preseason polls. The Michigan transfer has been dubbed the greatest transfer in the portal era and is coming off a season in which he averaged 18.5 points and 9.0 rebounds. If Dickinson is as dominant as he was for three years in Ann Arbor, the No. 1 ranking will be warranted.
But there’s another big question for Kansas: 3-point shooting. The Jayhawks were middle-of-the-pack from the perimeter last season and lost their two most prolific 3-point shooters in Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick. Can Elmarko Jackson or Johnny Furphy fill that void? Will it fall on Towson transfer Nicolas Timberlake?
0:24
UCLA’s Adem Bona gets up for sensational block
Oregon’s N’Faly Dante tries to go up for the layup, but UCLA’s Adem Bona comes out of nowhere for the phenomenal block.
Can John Calipari win with a freshman-heavy roster in 2023-24?
Calipari went back to his roots with this year’s roster at Kentucky, bringing in the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class and looking like he will start at least two freshmen from day one. It would have likely been three, but elite center Aaron Bradshaw is still out with a foot injury. Antonio Reeves and the well-traveled Tre Mitchell do provide some experience, but the key for Kentucky will come down to D.J. Wagner and how well he can run this team.
Early reports out of Lexington are positive on Wagner, but he’ll need to be a playmaker and distributor as much as a scorer. If he can be the next-level point guard Calipari needs, combined with immediate impacts from Justin Edwards and Rob Dillingham, there are very few teams with as much pure talent as the Wildcats.
1:54
How Armando Bacot’s return affects North Carolina next season
Mark Packer and Taylor Tannenbaum discuss Armando Bacot returning to North Carolina next season.
Can the Big East go back-to-back?
The Big East has three teams ranked inside the top eight of the AP preseason Top 25: Marquette (No. 5), defending champion UConn (No. 6) and Creighton (No. 8). No other conference comes close to having that many teams near the top of the rankings. So the short answer is, yes; when you have three teams with potential Final Four bona fides, a repeat title is certainly not out of the question.
UConn loses three starters, but Tristen Newton and Alex Karaban are back in the lineup, breakout candidate Donovan Clingan and freshman Stephon Castle are potential lottery picks and Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer brings experience and shooting. Marquette won the league last season and brings back four starters, including All-American Tyler Kolek. And Creighton has as good a quartet as there is in college basketball in Steven Ashworth, Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner.
1:25
Why Stephen A. expects a UConn repeat in 2024
Stephen A. Smith breaks down why the Huskies have what it takes to repeat as national champions in 2024.
Will North Carolina and Villanova bounce back after last season’s disappointments?
UNC had arguably the most disappointing season in the history of the sport last season, becoming the first preseason No. 1 team to miss the NCAA tournament. How does Hubert Davis respond? On paper, this is a second-weekend NCAA tournament team. Armando Bacot and RJ Davis form one of the best inside-outside duos in the country and Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram are high-major transfers. The key will be Elliot Cadeau at the point guard spot.
Villanova is likely grateful Carolina took all the attention away from its poor showing last season. The Wildcats finished just .500 on the season, missing the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2012. But Kyle Neptune went out and reloaded with transfers TJ Bamba, Hakim Hart and Tyler Burton to go with veteran returnees Justin Moore and Eric Dixon. There’s far too much talent here to miss the dance again.
1:18
Kentucky’s Bradshaw describes solid team chemistry
Freshman Aaron Bradshaw reflects on his decision to commit to being a Wildcat at last year’s Big Blue Madness, adding his aspirations for the upcoming season.
Is UCLA this season’s biggest mystery?
No one really knows what UCLA will be this season, but the Bruins may have the widest range of outcomes of any team in college basketball. There’s very little returning from last season for Mick Cronin, though there is talent. Adem Bona should be one of the best defensive bigs in the country and Dylan Andrews is a capable point guard. Lazar Stefanovic averaged double figures at Utah last season. International freshmen Aday Mara and Berke Buyuktuncel are potential one-and-done draft picks. Jan Vide is a proven player overseas. And American high school recruit Sebastian Mack has generated some preseason buzz.
There are certainly players on the roster. But there are also questions. Can Bona stay healthy and take the next step? Is Andrews ready to run the show? Freshmen always take time to adapt to the college game — and international freshmen generally take even longer. We might not have answers for several weeks.
0:25
K.J. Adams Jr. soars to throw down huge alley-oop
K.J. Adams Jr. catches the lob and jams home the alley-oop for Kansas.
How does Houston adapt to its move from the AAC to the Big 12?
Outside of Gonzaga and its annual 30-win teams, there may not be a more consistent program in college basketball right now than Kelvin Sampson and the Houston Cougars. They’ve won at least 27 games in five of the past six seasons and one NCAA tournament game in each of the past five NCAA tournaments and have been to the second weekend in four straight NCAA tournaments, including a Final Four run in 2021. And it’s likely none of those teams were as talented as this season’s is projected to be.
That said, the Cougars are moving up from the AAC to the Big 12, so getting 32 or 33 wins again is going to be much more difficult. A fanbase — and a program — accustomed to losing just once a month will have to adjust to brutal tests twice a week in a new league. However, Houston has the firepower to hit the ground running. Jamal Shead and J’Wan Roberts are back, while transfers LJ Cryer and Damian Dunn provide immediate offense. Sampson will need a breakout campaign from either Terrance Arceneaux or Emanuel Sharp, but there’s depth, size, experience and shooting all over the roster.
0:19
Tyson Walker increases Spartans’ lead with another trey
Tyson Walker increases Michigan State’s lead over Indiana with his 3-pointer.
Can Florida Atlantic carry over the momentum from last season’s Final Four run?
The computer models don’t like FAU nearly as much as human polls do entering the season. That’s understandable, given the Owls were a 9-seed in the NCAA tournament and nearly (and perhaps should have) lost to Memphis in the first round before going on a run to the Final Four. Now Dusty May’s team has a target on its back entering the season — and is also moving up from Conference USA to the AAC.
But they also bring back all five starters from a team that, despite being a 9-seed, was 31-3 entering the NCAA tournament. Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin are two stars, Vladislav Goldin gives them legitimate 7-foot-1 size on the interior and there are a slew of capable guards on the perimeter. Even if FAU doesn’t win 30-plus games again because of a much more difficult schedule, there’s enough talent out of Boca Raton to position them as a second-weekend NCAA tournament team.
2:17
The best of Duke during Jon Scheyer’s first season at the helm
Check out some of the best moments from Duke’s first season under coach Jon Scheyer as he agrees to a six-year contract extension.
Who is this season’s UConn or Purdue?
The AP preseason Top 25 does usually have some predictive value, but last year’s version doesn’t look great in retrospect. The eventual national champions weren’t in the preseason Top 25. Neither were the Boilermakers, who were ranked No. 1 for much of the season and earned a 1-seed. The overall 1-seed in the NCAA tournament, Alabama, was only No. 20 in the preseason poll.
Last year in this column, I targeted Xavier (genius!), Florida and Oklahoma (not as genius) as three teams that could exceed expectations. Let’s see if I can hit on at least one again this season.
Baylor is my Final Four underdog for this season, coming in at No. 20 in the preseason AP poll. The Bears bring in a slew of talented newcomers, and could start three on the perimeter in RayJ Dennis, Jayden Nunn and Ja’Kobe Walter. Walter, in particular, looks like one of the truly elite freshmen in the country. And then up front, Yves Missi is generating buzz as a potential one-and-done sleeper, and Jalen Bridges, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and Josh Ojianwuna are all back. It could take some time, but Scott Drew has all the ingredients for a deep run.
Outside the Top 25, I like Maryland and Mississippi State. The Terrapins bring back three veteran anchors in Jahmir Young, Donta Scott and Julian Reese and are adding two freshmen generating plenty of buzz in DeShawn Harris-Smith and Jamie Kaiser Jr. Harris-Smith could make a huge impact from day one.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State brings back all five starters from an NCAA tournament team and adds high-scoring Marshall transfer Andrew Taylor. What am I missing? Yes, Tolu Smith is injured and will miss the first half of the season, but a fully healthy Bulldogs team should be able to compete with anyone in the SEC.