NBA betting: Four picks for Thursday

We’ve got an interesting slate of games tonight, including two rematches of games already played this season. The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Toronto Raptors by seven points in Toronto last week, and the San Antonio Spurs pulled off a 20-point comeback to snatch victory from the Phoenix Suns on the last possession of the game just days ago.

We also have four of the last five (and five of the last seven) No. 1 overall NBA draft picks on the court tonight.

Let’s dig deeper into these four games and find some bets for the night.

Snellings’ favorite bets for Thursday

Suns -8.0 over Spurs. The Suns and Spurs played one of the fascinating games of the early season on Tuesday, with the Spurs overcoming a 20-point deficit and outscoring Phoenix by 14 in the fourth quarter to hand the Suns a shocking defeat. But the feel of that game was that the Suns were on their way to a blowout and took their foot off the gas, a mistake against a feisty young Spurs team that coach Gregg Popovich has fighting until the end. The look on Kevin Durant‘s face when Keldon Johnson took the ball from him and initiated the game-winning score encapsulated his frustration and disbelief in the outcome. I don’t believe Durant or the Suns will make the same mistake on Thursday. I think they start hard and keep the hammer down to secure a double-digit win in an unexpected revenge game.

Scottie Barnes over 31.5 total points + assists + rebounds. As predicted, Barnes is getting all the responsibility he can handle — and he’s taking full advantage of the opportunity. In his last four games, Barnes has averaged 20.5 PPG, 10.0 RPG and 4.3 APG, with at least a 34 PAR in all four contests. This includes his game against this 76ers team last week, where he scored 24 points with 8 rebounds and 5 assists.

Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz over 221.5 points. In early action, the Jazz are averaging 114.6 PPG but allowing 118.6 PPG, sixth-most in the NBA. The Magic have been on the opposite extreme, allowing the second-fewest PPG and scoring the eighth-least. I’m expecting the Jazz’s style to dictate this matchup, with their team full of shooters who stretch the floor and will be difficult for the Magic’s defense to contain. ESPN analytics also like the over, with a prediction of a combined 230.3 points in this matchup.

Paolo Banchero over 16.5 points. I just think Banchero is due. After averaging 20.0 PPG in his Rookie of the Year campaign last season, Banchero is currently averaging only 12.5 PPG through the first four games of this season. Banchero scored his season-high 15 points in his last outing, and he’ll be facing a Jazz forward tandem of Lauri Markkanen and John Collins that aren’t strong defenders. I’ve already taken the over for this game, and I think Banchero having a bounce-back/breakout scoring effort will help drive the scoring in the game.

Tonight’s Lines and BPI Predictions

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics

Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
7 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia

Records (Against the Spread)
Raptors: 2-3 (3-2-0)
76ers: 2-1 (3-0-0)

Line: 76ers (-8.5) Total: 215.5
BPI Projection: 76ers (78.2%)
Money Line: Raptors (260), 76ers (-375)

Injury Report:
Raptors: Christian Koloko, (GTD – Illness); Precious Achiuwa, (GTD – Groin)
76ers: non reported
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Pelicans
8 p.m. ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Records (Against the Spread)
Pistons: 2-3 (3-2-0)
Pelicans: 3-1 (3-1-0)

Line: Pelicans (-7.5) Total: 218.5
BPI Projection: Pelicans (70.7%)
Money Line: Pistons (220), Pelicans (-285)

Injury Report:
Pistons: Alec Burks, (GTD – Forearm); Jalen Duren, (GTD – Ankle); Monte Morris, (OUT – Quadriceps); Isaiah Livers, (OUT – Ankle); Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT – Calf)
Pelicans: Brandon Ingram, (GTD – Knee); Jose Alvarado, (OUT – Ankle); Naji Marshall, (OUT – Knee); Trey Murphy III, (OUT – Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. ET, Delta Center, Salt Lake City

Records (Against the Spread)
Magic: 2-2 (3-1-0)
Jazz: 2-3 (3-2-0)

Line: Jazz (-1.5) Total: 221.5
BPI Projection: Jazz (56.8%)
Money Line: Magic (-105), Jazz (-115)

Injury Report:
Magic: None reported
Jazz: None reported
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
10 p.m. ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix

Records (Against the Spread)
Spurs: 2-2 (2-2-0)
Suns: 2-2 (3-1-0)

Line: Suns (-8.5) Total: 226.5
BPI Projection: Suns (77.0%)
Money Line: Spurs (260), Suns (-375)

Injury Report:
Spurs: None reported
Suns: Devin Booker, (GTD – Toe); Bradley Beal, (OUT – Back); Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play