Are the Colts and Jonathan Taylor at the point of no return? Here’s everything we know

INDIANAPOLIS — The monthlong saga between Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts may be headed toward a resolution, with sources telling ESPN on Monday that Taylor has been granted permission to seek a trade partner.

The Colts are looking for significant draft-pick compensation – a first-round choice or a comparable package of picks – but the decision to allow Taylor to seek the trade marks a significant milestone in the ongoing drama between the team and the 2021 NFL rushing champion.

Taylor has been seeking a contract extension while the Colts have been adamant in their position that the timing is not right to extend Taylor. The resulting back-and-forth has led to this point, and a resolution could be close. NFL teams must finalize their roster by Aug. 29, creating something of a deadline for the Taylor talks to play out.

What’s next? What does the market for Taylor look like and is there any recent precedent for a situation like this? ESPN Colts reporter Stephen Holder and NFL insider Jeremy Fowler answer the biggest questions.

Are the Colts serious about possibly trading him?

Holder: Yes. Even though Colts owner Jim Irsay issued an adamant rejection of Taylor’s earlier trade request — “we will not trade Jonathan Taylor” – the organization always kept that option on the table. Taking the step of allowing Taylor to engage with other teams is a major shift. It could also be a recognition that a trade offers a viable solution to a problem that has lingered for nearly a month.

But the Colts aren’t going to give Taylor away, sources said. Whether they get the first-round pick (or similar package of picks) they are seeking remains to be seen, but the team still regards Taylor as an elite player and wants compensation commensurate with that assessment.

What’s the market for Taylor?

Fowler: Several league execs believe Taylor, as a talent, has a strong market. He’s a 24-year-old former rushing champion with home-run ability. Those are pretty rare credentials. One exec figured Taylor will be worth a Day 2 pick. And multiple teams recently have inquired.

But the contract will be the bigger hurdle. Teams that want to sign Taylor to a long deal – such as five years – in the $11 million or $12 million range annually could be a non-starter for Taylor. Yes, the 49ers gave up multiple high picks last season for Christian McCaffrey, who is the standard-bearer for backs at $16 million per year. But the 49ers paid McCaffrey $690,000 for the prorated portion of his salary last season, plus the $11.8 million he was due in 2023 (which eventually got reworked).

Meanwhile, trading for Taylor likely requires paying a big signing bonus right now as part of the new deal. That could be a problem for some interested teams. Miami has been identified as a potential spot for Taylor, due to GM Chris Grier’s penchant for targeting star players and the Dolphins’ previous interest in Dalvin Cook. But teams aren’t quite sold yet on Miami going all-in here.

What are the comparisons to this situation?

Holder: With running backs lamenting how their position is undervalued, it’s not the best environment in which to try to land a huge haul for Taylor. But as Jeremy mentions, the most recent comparison might be the deal sending McCaffrey from the Panthers to the 49ers on Oct. 21, 2022. The circumstances were different — McCaffrey had already been given a lucrative extension by Carolina and was not requesting a trade — but the parallel is that both players are elite running backs. San Francisco gave up 2023 second-, third- and fourth-round picks and a 2024 fifth-round selection. That’s a significant package for a Panthers team that is rebuilding around rookie quarterback Bryce Young.

In another similar scenario, Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler tried to find a trade destination because of his unhappiness with his current contract. But a lack of suitors willing to meet the Chargers’ compensation demands led to a dead end. Ekeler ultimately was given an additional $1.75 million in incentives on top of his expiring four-year, $24.5 million deal. A key difference: Ekeler is 28 while Taylor is 24.

For the record, the last time a running back was traded for a first-round pick was 2013, when the Cleveland Browns traded Trent Richardson to … the Colts. That trade did not yield the intended results as Richardson lasted just two seasons in Indianapolis, averaging 3.1 yards per carry. The Colts waived him in 2015.

If there is a trade, how is Indy’s depth at running back?

Holder: Not great. In two preseason games, Colts running backs have not produced a run of 10 yards or longer. There is an obvious lack of explosiveness without Taylor, especially considering Taylor’s breakaway speed and long runs are the trademark of his game.

The Colts are also without Taylor’s top backup, Zack Moss, who sustained a broken right arm and could miss the start of the regular season. That’s left Deon Jackson on top of the depth chart, a third-year player who has averaged 3.3 yards in his career. Evan Hull has some promise as a pass-catching/third-down back, but the Colts don’t currently have anyone in the backfield who defenses truly fear.

If there’s no trade, can the Colts salvage the relationship or will this loom all season?

Holder: There’s been little indication that fences can be mended, but Taylor has considerable incentive to have a productive season. He could become an unrestricted free agent in the spring, and he’ll want to enter free agency following a strong performance. He will need to be activated from the physically unable to perform list by Aug. 29 or face the possibility of missing the first four weeks of the regular season. He’s also scheduled to earn $4.304 million this season, provided he complies with his contract.

But there’s another reality: If no trade materializes, rumors will continue to swirl until the trade deadline passes on Oct. 31. The standoff between Taylor and the team has already overshadowed the team’s training camp, and the attention isn’t likely to abate anytime soon. If the Colts decide to move forward with Taylor, they do so knowing the situation could be messy.

Owner Jim Irsay, in an on-air appearance during the team’s preseason broadcast Saturday night, acknowledged as much, saying, “I know [general manager] Chris Ballard is going to work hard and get the waters as calm as they can and go forward.”