While it is just one individual result that puts England in the precarious position of needing to win tomorrow to keep elimination at bay, England’s collective performances under Buttler’s full-time captaincy makes England’s situation unsurprising. The defeat to Australia was England’s 21st ODI reversal under Buttler’s leadership against just 12 wins.
Since the start of the 2023 World Cup, their form has been even more dismal, with seven wins against 17 losses. Defeat to Afghanistan tomorrow would guarantee first-round elimination in two consecutive ODI events after England were the format’s best side between 2015 and 2019, making official that title when they lifted the 2019 World Cup on home soil. With the 2027 World Cup on the horizon, it is unlikely to strengthen Buttler’s case to lead England into one more ODI ICC event.
Buttler acknowledged the result tomorrow could come with wider implications for his future. “I think any time as an England captain, you want to perform, you want to perform well and you want to lead your team to winning games of cricket. We haven’t been doing that enough in the recent past. But as soon as you catch yourself thinking about any negative things, you just try and completely forget that and focus on all of the positive things that could go right and where you can take the team.”
Shortly after Duckett was done, the England captain took his place in the nets. This was altogether a more circumspect performance: the confident stride out followed by tentative pushes down the ground, more defensive blocks than the nonchalant pickups over midwicket. And though he had a bit of a hit against the spinners, Jamie Overton lined to have a bowl against his captain, while the coach threw several down at pace.
For, despite Afghanistan’s prodigious spin ability, they may find targeting Buttler with pace the cannier move. While Buttler has enjoyed pace outside Asia, the slower conditions through the middle overs in the subcontinent have seen his performances degrade sharply. He averages 22.75 in Asia in ODI cricket since 2017 at just under 98, his average and strike rate 40 and 11 points down respectively. No batter since 2023 has been dismissed against pace in the first ten balls as frequently; it has happened to him in five of his last 13 innings, with a particular susceptibility against hard lengths.
Shahidi put it down to the Karachi wicket offering “no support” for spinners and said “even one ball didn’t turn”. Should conditions in Lahore be similar on an overcast day tomorrow, facing up to spin in Asia isn’t one of Buttler’s problems. The England captain has struck at 107.46 against spin in Asia since 2023 at an average of 36. Given Afghanistan’s proclivity for using spin to asphyxiate sides in the middle overs, this could prove an opportunity for Buttler to turn the tables on them, and the tide around for his side.
As his stint in the nets drew its conclusion, he was facing spin once more. He picked length early, transferring weight back every time it dropped shot and launching it into the netting that prevented it from flying to cow corner. Some of the fuller deliveries were met with reverse sweeps – a few out of the middle, a handful that flew up. In these circumstances and in his form, it is a brave shot, but from the player that perhaps epitomises this England white-ball generation, you would expect little else.
“From the start of the tournament, we knew pretty much every game is a must win,” Buttler said. “We’ve got two games left and to progress further, we know we have to win those games. So that’s a very clear situation for us to be in. There’s little areas we want to improve and chase that perfect game.”
England’s confidence under Brendon McCullum means they always keep the faith they will find the lock to such perfection. Buttler, however, has been around long enough to know if they are to find it under his stewardship, it probably has to be tomorrow.
Danyal Rasool is ESPNcricinfo’s Pakistan correspondent. @Danny61000