Ranking returning production for every FBS team: Who should improve, regress in 2025

The lengthy 2024 season has been over for more than a month, the transfer portal has settled down for now, and we’re waiting to find out if the sport’s powers-that-be are going to change the format of the College Football Playoff for 2025 and beyond.

It seems like as good a time as any to start talking about who might actually be good in 2025!

Early each offseason, I spit out initial SP+ projections, based on a forever-changing combination of returning production, recruiting and recent history. As always, those projections stem from three primary questions: How good has your team been recently? How well has it recruited? And who returns from last year’s roster?

SP+ projections are still a few days away, but let’s deal with that last question first. Who returns a majority of last year’s production? Who has done the best job of importing production from another team? Who is starting from scratch?

For a few years now, I’ve been attempting to expand how we measure returning production. The formula I created shifts with each new year of data and has had to shift a ton with the rising number of transfers. But the gist remains the same: High or low returning production percentages correlate well with improvement or regression. They might not guarantee a good or bad team, but they can tell us a lot. And in 2025, they tell us a lot about the state of college football.

Looking through the prism of returning production data of every FBS team, we’ll break down how the percentage of returning players is trending, what the numbers mean for your favorite team and which teams can expect to improve and which could regress in 2025.

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Percentages | Transfers
Returning trends | What numbers mean
Likely to improve | Likely to regress

Returning production percentages

Here are the returning production percentages and rankings for all 136 FBS teams for 2025. (Yes, we’re up to 136. Hello, Delaware and Missouri State!)

How SP+ accounts for transfers

With the explosion in use of the transfer portal in recent years, I’ve had to significantly change the way transfers are accounted for in the SP+ projections. They show up in both the returning production piece here and in the recruiting portions referenced above.

For returning production, I mash an incoming player’s production from his previous team into the numerator and denominator for his new team. (Because the translation in moving from the lower levels of the sport to the FBS is extremely inconsistent, I give only half-credit for players transferring up from lower divisions.) So if your quarterback leaves, and you bring in a transfer who was productive elsewhere — hello, Miami (Carson Beck) and Indiana (Fernando Mendoza) — that dampens the blow of your QB leaving.

For the recruiting aspect, I attempt to account for incoming transfers’ recruiting rankings in a given team’s overall recruiting averages. The initial impact of a given recruiting class (freshmen plus transfers) is skewed heavily toward transfers before shifting toward younger recruits in future seasons.

Here is the current weighting for determining the offensive percentages above:

• Percent of returning OL snaps: 40% of the overall number

• Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 35%

• Percent of returning QB passing yards: 22%

• Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 3%

Broken out by position/player, you’re looking at roughly 22% for the quarterback, 9% for each of four wide receivers and/or tight ends, 8% for each offensive lineman and 3% for the running back. Keep in mind: This is not based on my personal opinion of positional importance — it’s all about what impacts the numbers the most. On average, teams are able to overcome turnover at running back more easily than turnover at other positions. That’s how Arizona State and Boise State can both end up in the top 10 in returning production despite losing two running backs — Cam Skattebo and Ashton Jeanty, respectively — who combined for 4,312 rushing yards in 2024.

Breaking things out by position is a bit trickier on defense, where units aren’t as strictly defined and the percentage of returning production is derived both from position units and types of stats. I’ve also finally begun incorporating raw snap counts into the defensive production averages, and it seems to be a pretty strong predictor. Here’s the approximate layout:

• Percent of returning snaps: 66%

• Percent of returning tackles: 19%

• Percent of returning tackles for loss: 15%

By position, linebackers make up about 35% of the defensive formula, while the defensive line is at 33% and the defensive backs are at 32%.

(Note: Because Delaware and Missouri State played at the FCS level in 2024, I didn’t have full snap-count data for them. I used an estimated number of O-line snaps based on each player’s number of starts and game participation, and I used an estimated number of defensive snaps based on each player’s tackle totals.)

Returning production is lower than ever in 2025

I have been collecting returning production data since 2014, but between the rapid increase in transfers and the bonus eligibility year associated with the 2020 COVID season, the situation has consistently changed of late. So have the returning production averages. Since 2021, when returning production totals peaked due to the immediate effects of the bonus eligibility year, the national averages have sunk by 23 percentage points, starting with a significant drop in 2022 and, interestingly, another solid decline this offseason.

We have another transfer window to come, so these averages aren’t set in stone. But the national average shifted only from 58.7% last February to 59.9% in August; it’s all but certain that we will end up with all-time lows in the returning production department this season.

I think there are two primary causes for this. First, most of the players with remaining years of bonus eligibility due to 2020 have officially cycled out of the system. Granted, if you were a true freshman in 2020, received the bonus year, then redshirted in 2021, you’ll still be a redshirt senior in 2025. But a healthy portion of the remaining bonus players are gone.

Second, use of the transfer portal is only speeding up. In 2023, FBS teams averaged 10.7 incoming transfers. In 2024, that rose to 13.9, and we’re already at 14.1 in 2025. Sure, a lot of the production from these transfers has just shifted from one school to another. But because of the way I calculate the numbers, a transfer is still a net negative.

Here’s an overly simple example: Team A loses its starting quarterback and therefore returns 0% of its passing production, while Team B returns its starting quarterback and is at 100%. Between the two, that’s a 50% average. But if Team A pulls in Team B’s QB via the portal, it boasts around 50% returning passing production, while Team B is at 0%. Between the two, they’re averaging around 25%. So an increase in transfers drags down the national average.

There’s also a clear drag on teams in the Group of 5, which are losing stars to higher-level schools and conferences at an increasing rate. As cool as it was that Jeanty stayed at Boise State and led his team to its first CFP bid, it was the exception, not the rule.

In all, power conference teams are averaging 58.6% returning production, while the Group of 5 is at a ghastly 49.0%.

2025 returning production averages by conference
1. Big 12 (60.0%)
2. SEC (59.3%)
3. ACC (59.1%)
4. Big Ten (56.2%)
5. Conference USA (54.0%)
6. Sun Belt (51.1%)
7. AAC (48.9%)
8. Mountain West (47.4%)
9. MAC (43.6%)

The challenges are mounting for G5 programs, and this should ring alarm bells for those, like me, who enjoy the big-tent aspect this sport has embraced through the years. There is nothing more fun than when “College GameDay” visits Appalachian State or Boise State or some other mid-major program that is knocking off the big boys. But we’re increasingly tilting the field against those stories, and we either care enough to do something about that or we don’t. I wish it were the former, but evidence certainly points to the latter.

Long story short: We’ve got less continuity than ever in 2025. This is especially noticeable at running back (in 2023, the national average for returning RB snaps was 63.7%, but it’s now down to 53.0%), wide receiver/tight end (down from 60.0% in 2023 to 51.6%) and, especially, defensive line (down from 64.3% to 51.4%).

What these numbers mean for your team

Over the past three years, we’ve seen 23 of 398 total FBS teams (5.8%) returning at least 78% of their production in a given season. For a 136-team FBS, that’s equivalent to about 7.9 teams per year. But right now only two teams clear that bar: Clemson and Arizona State.

If we lower the bar all the way to 70%, that ropes in six more teams for 2025: Illinois, Kennesaw State, Rutgers, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Vanderbilt. Over the past three years, teams at 70% returning production or higher have improved 70% of the time, which says good things for five or six of the eight teams above. Those that improved did so by an average of 7.1 points, and considering Clemson and ASU made the CFP in 2024 and Illinois and Texas A&M both ranked 31st or better in SP+, a touchdown’s worth of improvement from any of these teams would be significant for their playoff hopes.

Now let’s flip to the other end of the spectrum. From 2022 to 2024, 15% of teams returned less than 50% of production, equivalent to about 21 teams from a 136-team FBS. But right now, 46 teams are under 50%. If we look solely at the teams returning less than 40% — there are 19 in 2025, 18 at the G5 level — regression comes for 75% of those on average, and 50% fall by at least 10 points in SP+.

We’ll see if that remains the case this season with so many teams dealing with such turnover, but among the 19 teams under 40% are five that ranked 70th or better in SP+ last season: Memphis (32nd in SP+ in 2024), UNLV (36th), Marshall (59th), Washington State (68th) and Miami (Ohio) (69th). Consider this a red flag for those teams.

There are no guarantees here, of course. Returning 87% of its production didn’t keep BYU from underachieving in 2022 and returning 33% didn’t prevent Louisiana-Monroe from improving in 2024. And the transfer train brought improvement for teams such as Colorado and Texas State in 2023 even with minimal returning production. Still, there’s usually reason for pessimism for the teams at the very bottom of this list. (See: Air Force in 2024. The Falcons plummeted as expected after terribly low returning production.) The five teams under 30% — Jacksonville State, Nevada, New Mexico, Northern Illinois and Washington State — might not enjoy 2025 all that much.

Most likely to improve in 2025

Again, the percentages above correlate to improvement and regression, not pure quality. That’s important to reinforce. But plenty of this year’s top teams from a returning production standpoint were also pretty good last year. Now they’ve got a chance to get even better.

Here are the nine teams that (A) ranked in the SP+ top 40 in 2024 and (B) currently rank in the top 25 in returning production:

Texas A&M (13th in SP+ in 2024, sixth in returning production in 2025). Mike Elko’s first season at A&M was solid. The Aggies improved from 7-6 to 8-5 and from 16th to 13th in SP+. They head into 2025 having handed the QB reins to sophomore-to-be Marcel Reed, and they currently return running backs Amari Daniels and Le’Veon Moss — who combined for 1,627 yards from scrimmage — and players who accounted for 60 of 65 starts on the offensive line. The receiving corps and defensive line took solid hits of attrition (that’s where Elko spent most of his transfer capital), but everyone’s dealing with attrition of some sort. It’s hard to move up in the SEC, but the Aggies will have a chance to do so if Reed can keep improving.

Florida (20th in SP+ in 2024, 18th in returning production in 2025). Despite a brutal schedule and the handing of the QB reins to freshman DJ Lagway midseason, Billy Napier’s Gators saw significant improvement in 2024, jumping from 5-7 to 8-5 and from 41st in SP+ to 20th. Lagway has some all-or-nothing tendencies to smooth out, and four of last year’s top six targets are gone, but he’ll have running back Jadan Baugh and four offensive line starters back, and perhaps most importantly, a defense that was dominated by sophomores and juniors last year (but still improved from 60th to 23rd in defensive SP+) returns a solid 12 of 20 players with 200-plus snaps. Napier is somehow pulling off a patient building job at a very impatient school (in a very impatient conference).

Clemson (22nd in SP+ in 2024, first in returning production in 2025). The only current members of the 80% club, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are awfully tantalizing at the moment. The defense returns 13 of 18 players with 200-plus snaps and adds a star pass rusher in Purdue’s Will Heldt. The offense, meanwhile, returns eight starters, including quarterback Cade Klubnik and a delightful trio of receivers in senior Antonio Williams and sophomores Bryant Wesco Jr. and CFP star T.J. Moore. (They should also get a full-strength Tyler Brown back; the 2023 freshman All-American was injured for much of 2024.) After ranking sixth or better in SP+ for six straight seasons from 2015 to 2020, Clemson has averaged a ranking of only 18.5 since. This should be its highest-upside team in five years.

Boise State (29th in SP+ in 2024, ninth in returning production in 2025). As mentioned above, rushing figures tend to be more replaceable on average, so losing Jeanty doesn’t prevent Boise State from grading out well in returning production. The Broncos return quarterback Maddux Madsen, two of three primary pass catchers, four starting offensive linemen and most of the linebacking corps and secondary. The defensive line is taking on a rebuild — four of last year’s top five are gone, with four transfers incoming — but while the G5 is getting hit hard by attrition, 2024’s best G5 team really isn’t. If some combination of Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod and youngsters Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley can provide capable production in the run game, BSU will be an obvious favorite for the G5’s playoff spot once again.

Illinois (31st in SP+ in 2024, third in returning production in 2025). Illinois went 5-1 in one-score finishes, with two overtime wins and one of the most shocking last-second victories of the season, and while that will be hard to replicate, the Illini could offset close-game regression with pure improvement. Quarterback Luke Altmyer returns, as do five of his six primary offensive linemen. The skill corps took a hit but welcomes solid transfer receivers Hudson Clement (West Virginia) and Justin Bowick (Ball State), and the defense, which improved from 45th to 26th in SP+, returns 10 of 15 players with 200-plus snaps, including all of a strong secondary. I’m not sure the Illini will match last year’s 10-win total, but this is going to be a strong team.

Oklahoma (33rd in SP+ in 2024, 10th in returning production in 2025). OU’s first season in the SEC was a trial. Per SP+, the Sooners fielded their best defense since 2013, but their worst offense since 1998 doomed the campaign, and they went 6-7 for the second time in Brent Venables’ three seasons in charge. Their 2025 defense could be outstanding, returning 11 of 19 guys with 200-plus snaps and adding among the brightest talents from disappointing Florida State (DE Marvin Jones Jr.) and Oklahoma State (LB Kendal Daniels) defenses. The offense, meanwhile, made two huge imports from Washington State: coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer. If Mateer and seven new receiving corps transfers can click — something that will be far more likely if a vastly more experienced offensive line gets better — the Sooners could make solid overall improvement. They’ll still face a brutal schedule, though.

Auburn (34th in SP+ in 2024, 22nd in returning production in 2025). Hugh Freeze’s Tigers were both more efficient and more explosive than their opponents in 2024, but they self-destructed via red zone miscues and turnovers, and finished 5-7. The Auburn defense must replace 10 of 19 players with 200-plus snaps, but should get help from the addition of two G5 stars: Raion Strader, a cornerback from Miami (Ohio); and Chris Murray, a defensive end from Sam Houston. The main question, however, comes at quarterback, where two flawed transfers — Stanford’s Ashton Daniels and Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold — will compete for the job of throwing to a potentially dynamite receiving corps led by sophomores Cam Coleman and Malcolm Simmons and Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. The upside is massive, but we’ll have to see if last year’s implosions have been curbed.

Arizona State (35th in SP+ in 2024, second in returning production in 2025). Like Illinois, Arizona State was perhaps a bit fortunate, going 6-1 in one-score finishes in the regular season. The Sun Devils were legitimately awesome late in the season but finished only 35th in SP+ because of struggles against teams such as Texas State and Cincinnati. But outside of Cam Skattebo, this was an awfully young team, one that has a chance to offset a potential reversal in close-game fortune by being good enough to avoid close games altogether. Quarterback Sam Leavitt, receiver Jordyn Tyson and four offensive line starters return, as do a whopping 14 of 17 defenders with 200-plus snaps. And though coach Kenny Dillingham didn’t have to be as aggressive in the portal this time around, he still brought in players who combined for 61 FBS starts last season.

Baylor (38th in SP+ in 2024, 11th in returning production in 2025). It appeared the Dave Aranda era might be coming to an end as Baylor began last season 2-4. But the Bears ended the regular season with six straight wins, and they return quarterback Sawyer Robertson, his leading rusher (Bryson Washington) and receiver (Josh Cameron) and difference-makers on both lines (all-conference guard Omar Aigbedion and defensive tackle Jackie Marshall). Aranda used the portal to bring in proven mid-major players such as Florida International linebacker Travion Barnes and former blue-chippers like Alabama receiver Kobe Prentice. It will be a surprise if the Bears aren’t part of what should again be a crowded Big 12 race.

Most likely to regress in 2025

The best teams in the country in a given season tend to lose quite a bit of their production to the NFL in a given offseason, but it might be noteworthy that five of last year’s top seven teams, per SP+, rank 101st or worse in returning production. They’re all at 46% or lower. Considering the number of teams that were ranked in last year’s teens and 20s and look to be more experienced this season, that could make things awfully crowded near the top of the rankings.

Ohio State (first in SP+ in 2024, 101st in returning production in 2025). The defending national champion is probably going to start next season ranked No. 1 or 2 in the preseason polls, and that makes plenty of sense. When you have receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs and other teams don’t, that’s going to make you awfully appealing. But the Buckeyes did lose a 4,000-yard passer (Will Howard), two 1,000-yard rushers (Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson), a 1,000-yard receiver (Emeka Egbuka), an All-American left tackle (Donovan Jackson), their top four defensive linemen (who combined for 49 tackles for loss) and four other defensive starters. And although this doesn’t count in the returning production formula, they lost both coordinators too. Blue-chippers abound, but that’s a particularly impressive batch of contributors to replace.

Ole Miss (second in SP+ in 2024, 113th in returning production in 2025). One of the most prevalent complaints about playoff expansion was ostensibly about mulligans — we’d be handing out too many of them, and the impact of particularly devastating regular-season losses would be dampened too much. Granted, Ohio State’s loss to Michigan (and the national title that followed) backed that point up to some degree, but Ole Miss is proof that you can still finish a season with epic regret in the playoff era.

Lane Kiffin’s Rebels finished the year second in SP+ and constantly flashed massive upside, but losses to Kentucky (by three points), LSU (in OT) and Florida (by seven) featured terrible breaks and regrettable mistakes, and Ole Miss narrowly missed out on a playoff bid with which it could have done major damage. And now, even with plenty of incoming transfers, the Rebels have to replace their leading passer, rusher and receiver, 67% of their DB snaps, 62% of their O-line snaps and 61% of their D-line snaps. Regret regarding 2024 might rise in Oxford only if there’s a setback season in 2025.

Oregon (third in SP+ in 2024, 109th in returning production in 2025). Oregon enjoyed an unbeaten regular season before a playoff loss to Ohio State, and Dan Lanning has recruited well enough of late for us to assume the Ducks will remain a top-level program moving forward. But it might take them a little while to establish firm footing in 2025. That’s what happens when you lose your top quarterback and running back, four of your top five receiving targets, four starting offensive linemen and every defensive lineman and defensive back who saw more than 100 snaps. Lanning added dynamite transfers — safety Dillon Thieneman (Purdue), running back Makhi Hughes (Tulane), offensive tackle Isaiah World (Nevada), offensive guard Emmanuel Pregnon (USC) — but a new team will be wearing Oregon’s fluorescent jerseys this fall.

Georgia (sixth in SP+ in 2024, 105th in returning production in 2025). Per SP+, Georgia fielded its worst offense in four years and its worst defense in seven. That sounds worse than it actually was — the Dawgs were still in the top 10 in offensive, defensive and special teams SP+ — but this was Kirby Smart’s least scary Georgia team in quite a while, and now it will be replacing starting quarterback Carson Beck, three of his top four targets, four of the top six offensive linemen and 12 of 18 defenders with 200-plus snaps. Quarterback Gunner Stockton was solid in Georgia’s playoff loss to Notre Dame, and Smart still recruits freshmen better than almost anyone on the planet. But losing a ton of production from your first three-loss team in six years doesn’t signify an immediate rebound is coming.

Texas (seventh in SP+ in 2024, 103rd in returning production in 2025). If you aren’t leaning toward ranking Ohio State No. 1 to start the year, you’re probably looking at Texas instead. Considering the Longhorns are officially handing the reins to quarterback Arch Manning — and giving him a loaded RB stable and the best linebacking corps in the country — it makes sense. But SP+ isn’t automatically giving the Horns the benefit of the doubt. They were only seventh in SP+ last season and must replace quarterback Quinn Ewers, four of his top six targets, the top four offensive and defensive linemen and dynamite DBs Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba. Steve Sarkisian recruits well and spruced up the defensive line with three transfers, but that’s still a lot. If Manning is anything less than otherworldly, Texas could have some ups and downs.

Three other potential top teams should have twinges of concern heading into 2025: Miami, SMU and South Carolina all ranked in the SP+ top 15 but are currently worse than 70th in returning production.

Miami (10th in SP+ in 2024, 75th in returning production in 2025). Despite a defense that had ceased making stops by the end of September, Miami finished a solid 10th in SP+ thanks to the best offense in the country. That offense will now replace quarterback Cam Ward, leading rusher Damien Martinez, the top three receivers and two starting linemen. Even with the addition of Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, the Canes rank in the 80s in offensive returning production. New defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman will have to generate improvement on that side, not only because the defense stunk but also because the offense will probably regress.

SMU (12th in SP+ in 2024, 78th in returning production in 2025). No one in the country wants another shot at the CFP more than SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings, who suffered the worst game of his life against Penn State in the first round in December. If he can lead the Mustangs back to the promised land in 2025, he’ll do so without his leading rusher and five of his top six receiving targets and with two new starting linemen. Even more worrisome: A rock-solid defensive front six lost all six starters plus the top three backups at tackle. Few have worked the transfer portal better than Rhett Lashlee, but a lot of last year’s difference-makers are gone.

South Carolina (14th in SP+ in 2024, 71st in returning production in 2025). It’s not hard to end up with similar thoughts about South Carolina, though perhaps to a lesser degree, as about Ohio State: Sure, the Gamecocks will have holes to fill, but they’re going to have quarterback LaNorris Sellers and defensive end Dylan Stewart, who were two of 2024’s best freshmen, and that will fill quite a bit, right? Maybe. But there’s still a lot to replace, namely three offensive line starters and nearly every member of the front six not named Stewart. Only six of 15 defenders with 200-plus snaps are back, and while Shane Beamer is liberal with his portal usage, he’ll need quite a few hits to replicate 2024’s No. 13 finish in defensive SP+. (He’ll need a bit more consistency from Sellers too.)