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Kristen Shilton
Heading into the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament, many expected that the United States and Canada would be the teams to beat — and would meet in the championship game.
No one expected that the two countries’ opening round matchup would be so intense, or that the final game would be an instant classic, decided in overtime on the stick of Connor McDavid.
Here are grades for the United States and Canada, including the biggest takeaways, the key player to watch for the 2026 Olympics, and lingering questions for each nation in the buildup to the Winter Games.
Grading the teams
Canada: A
Canada had star power to spare in its lineup, but there was no way that relying on just the top lines to contribute was going to get them past an equally stacked American team. Kudos to head coach Jon Cooper for recognizing that and tapping into all Canada had to offer.
The addition of Cale Makar on the blue line — after he missed the round-robin matchup between these teams with an illness — was a significant improvement for Canada, but their other elite skaters were still stymied. By midway through the third period, there were no shots on goal from players like Mitch Marner and Sidney Crosby; beating an all-world goalie like Connor Hellebuyck isn’t easy at the best of times, and Canada could have made him more uncomfortable.
In such an evenly matched game, open ice was hard to find. Canada cracked the Vezina Trophy favorite with savvy play that other countries in the event couldn’t manage. That was a win in itself. McDavid producing the overtime game-winner was simply poetic.
United States: A-
The USA didn’t need a group chat to outline their strategy in this one. The final was no time for fisticuffs; it was more about finesse.
Fortunately, the Americans had that on display, too. Jake Guentzel might have been the most effective forward on both sides of this game, frustrating the Canadian defense with some flashy moves. And anyone who didn’t recognize how good Jaccob Slavin can be got a masterclass in the way he dominated from the back end, with Ray Ferraro referring to him as an “eraser” in the defensive zone.
While both players deserve praise, it was maybe leaning too much on individuals that kept the U.S. from taking over earlier in the game. The team let Canada bring the action to them for the first two periods before turning up the heat in those final 20 minutes. Would the U.S. have run away with a victory had it pressed earlier?
What we learned
Depth makes a difference
The stars showed up on both sides of the final, but depth skaters made their presence felt, too. Jake Sanderson and Sam Bennett pocketed second period goals, showing why certain skaters were targeted by their countries for this short-term opportunity — it’s because they can make an impact.
Bennett was the one who drew Canada’s second period penalty and while his countrymen didn’t capitalize, he gave them a chance. And Sanderson wouldn’t have been in the lineup if it weren’t for an injury to Charlie McAvoy, which just shows why roster construction is such a delicate task in these tournaments.
Given how quickly injuries can happen, teams have to trust whatever skaters are waiting in the wings — same with Thomas Harley stepping in for Josh Morrissey — and in an evenly fought matchup like this one, depth can move the needle.
Goaltending hardly a great divide
There were long discussions around how Jordan Binnington would stack up against Hellebuyck in a potential final game. And it turns out both netminders were equally excellent.
Most of the game was evenly played in shots on goal, and Binnington came through with just as many clutch stops as Hellebuyck to give his team a chance to win. Earlier concerns about Binnington’s ability to match Hellebuyck now seem silly, particularly as star players at both ends — Auston Matthews and McDavid — couldn’t find twine early on.
The key for Binnington especially was to make the stop that counted, like when he stoned Matthews and Brady Tkachuk in overtime. He was Canada’s OT MVP.
Hellebuyck exceptional too; one of the goalies had to give up a winner, and in the end it wasn’t a knock on either to see that puck cross the line.
Player to watch in the build to the Olympics
Crosby is, by all accounts, the heartbeat of every team he plays for — whether it’s the Pittsburgh Penguins or on the intentional front. Crosby will be 38 when the 2026 Olympic Games roll around. What can Canada reasonably expect from him in that tournament?
Crosby was Canada’s points leader at 4 Nations going into the final, with one goal and four assists, proving that he’s still incredibly effective even when he’s battling an injury (there’s a reason he kept that left hand in a hoodie during every media availability during the 4 Nations event). But will another year of NHL wear and tear allow Crosby to take on key responsibilities again in Italy?
There are a number of up-and-coming forwards in Canada’s system and while Crosby is guaranteed a spot on his country’s Olympic roster, where he slots in will be fascinating.
We did not see the best of Matthews in this 4 Nations tournament. He’s battled injuries throughout the NHL season, and didn’t register his first shot on goal in the event until the championship.
And yet, Matthews is a generational scoring talent who can be a wicked game-breaker unlike anyone in the USA program. He was named 4 Nations captain for a reason, and if that opportunity didn’t showcase all Matthews has to offer, then a healthy version at the Olympics could tell an entirely different story.
And if it does, what difference does that make for the USA in those Games? Matthews has excelled at every level at which he’s competed, and whatever he does in the offseason to guard against injury in the coming year will play into how he can perform in Italy. There’s no doubt what he’s capable of. It’s all about health and ensuring he’s primed to be at his best come next year.
Lingering questions for the Olympics
How will Canada approach it’s goaltending?
Canada came under heavy scrutiny for their goalie choices in this tournament. Logan Thompson wasn’t included among Canada’s trio, and frankly deserved to be. Will he emerge as a starter for Canada when it comes to the Games? Or is what Binnington provided as the only Canadian goalie used at 4 Nations enough to give him the inside track to be Canada’s No.1?
Or does another candidate emerge? Will Stuart Skinner Or Darcy Kuemper push their way into the conversation?
Canada’s top forwards and defensemen haven’t been in question. It comes down to who they think will give them the best chance in net, given that Jon Cooper didn’t give either Adin Hill or Sam Montembeault a sniff at 4 Nations.
What will a healthy USA blue line look like?
It looked for a moment like the USA might get Quinn Hughes in for the final, after he was originally sidelined by injury for the tournament. That roster addition didn’t come to fruition, but what difference might Hughes have made? Especially if he was on a back end that included a healthy McAvoy, forced out of the tournament by an upper-body ailment?
The U.S. showed time and again it can generate offense, and their goaltending group was arguably the event’s best. It’s not that they lacked defensive prowess without Hughes and McAvoy in the mix, but it’s hard not to wonder how much more dominant this team could be in Italy with all they top skaters available.
Because when they orchestrate a tight, shut-down game they can be as good or better than any opponent.