In boxing, rematches usually reflect much of the first battle, with maybe a few added twists and turns. Dmitry Bivol, just four months removed from his controversial loss to Artur Beterbiev back in October for the undisputed light heavyweight title, will be looking for redemption when they meet again Saturday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (DAZN PPV, 11 a.m. ET). Beterbiev got the nod by majority decision in the first fight, even though Bivol had the numbers to prove he did enough to win. And chances are we will get another close fight.
Although the judges declared Beterbiev the winner the first time, many fans and analysts believe Bivol’s performance warranted a different outcome, and that storyline sets the stage for heightened anticipation.
One thing is clear: Bivol needs to be more vigilant in his approach the second time. And maybe better prepared. He lost the last three rounds on all three judges’ scorecards, and that cost him the fight.
Let’s look at what both Beterbiev and Bivol can and should do better in the rematch.
A look at the first fight
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How close was the first fight between Beterbiev and Bivol?
Take a look at the numbers behind Artur Beterbiev’s first fight against Dmitry Bivol ahead of their upcoming rematch.
Based on watching the first match, I believe both camps’ training regimens were nothing short of tremendous. I’m sure the fighters woke at sunrise, pounding the pavement and running extra miles deep in meditation, each rehearsing their approach to achieving the right outcome in the fight. Roadwork was more important than in any previous fight camps for both fighters, and they showed it in the ring.
Undoubtedly, both fighters hit the heavy bags inside the gym until their arms felt heavy and sore. Sparring helped them perfect their game plans, as they sharpened their timing and rhythm, with three or four sparring partners flown in to imitate the opponent’s formidable style. Both teams probably dissected countless hours of footage of their previous fights. I’m sure exhaustion weighed heavily on the fighters’ bodies and minds from the torturous workouts.
Both teams did their work. What set them apart came on fight night, when Beterbiev won and Bivol lost. I’m sure the taste of defeat still lingers in Bivol’s consciousness. He knows he must enter this rematch stronger and more prepared than he did the first fight. Bivol knows he gave it all, but it wasn’t enough. Beterbiev, in contrast, knows that luck was on his side the first time, and if he has any doubts ahead of the rematch, they concern whether he can do it again.
What both Beterbiev and Bivol need to fix
I’m sure both teams have rigorously analyzed the first fight, noting their fighters’ vulnerable moments and mistakes. Team Bivol and Team Beterbiev recognize that proper adjustments and a slightly different approach will be necessary, as I did while watching film of their first encounter.
Bivol neglected to tie up and fight back in critical spots. He also failed to bang to the body to break down the visibly robust Beterbiev and slow his momentum down the stretch. Beterbiev’s late-fight rally won him the championship rounds, ultimately winning him the fight.
Early in the fight, though, Beterbiev did not put forth nearly enough feints or move his head to avoid being countered by Bivol’s level-change attacks, stiff jabs and right crosses, all of which found a target over Beterbiev’s slow, lingering mid-range jabs.
Fatigue was an issue for both fighters, especially for Bivol down the stretch. But Beterbiev had also issues at the midway point of the match, as countering opportunities opened up for Bivol as he stood his ground. Bivol unleashed combinations and advanced, taking a lead after five rounds on two of the three judges’ scorecards. However, fatigue was noticeable in him toward the back end of the fight, as Bivol’s offense slowed.
How both Beterbiev and Bivol can adjust
One thing Bivol and his team would have been wise to do ahead of the rematch is more diverse strength training. Lifting more weights but incorporating light weights with high amounts of reps can build endurance. Also, using heavy weights with fewer reps can build overall strength and sustainable explosive power. Improved stamina could be crucial for victory in the rematch.
Aside from focusing on strength, Bivol needs to adjust technically and tactically, inserting more jabs to keep distance and left hooks to turn Beterbiev away from his most dominant positioning. That would help Bivol improve his chances in 50/50 exchanges, as would emphasizing endurance in his offense for more punch output. One way to build that endurance: supplementing long-distance training runs with high-intensity interval training.
I assume Beterbiev and his team have focused their training on some of the same things that Bivol needed to, since strength, punching power and endurance are staples of Beterbiev’s success. However, if I were training him for the rematch, I would have focused more on footwork, cutting off the ring and preparing Beterbiev for Bivol’s exits with a sustainable body attack to stunt his mobility and weaken him sooner. From a technical aspect, Bivol had trouble slowing down the pace of the fight with his technical abilities and lateral movement. Lo and behold, Beterbiev out-jabbed, outworked and swallowed up any space Bivol looked to overtake. Getting into a firefight sooner rather than later, and starting faster, may be Beterbiev’s best strategic approach for this rematch.
The X factor: Nutrition
One underlying element to training that’s often overlooked is nutrition, which has always been a building block for optimum performance. Being properly fueled for any competition can be the difference between winning, losing, fading or emerging. Gone are the days of comfort, especially for those embarking on battlegrounds far away from home and wrestling with unfamiliar cuisines. It’s essential to understand the direct connection between fuel and performance. Fighters should consume lean proteins such as eggs, chicken, fish and steak and high levels of complex carbohydrates such as fruit, vegetables, pasta, brown rice and oatmeal to ensure the body is well-equipped for the demands needed during the contest.
How the rematch could play out
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Bivol: Need for revenge vs. Beterbiev is burning inside me
Dmitry Bivol and Artur Beterbiev speak ahead of their rematch in Saudi Arabia.
Fatigue impacted Bivol’s first performance. He came into the fight well-prepared, but in the later rounds he struggled with his energy level and stamina. We’ve seen Bivol throw over 700 punches against Canelo Alvarez. But against Beterbiev, who kept up a steady pace and threw 600 punches himself, Bivol had difficulty keeping up with a little over 400 punches.
If Bivol wants to win in this rematch, he must find a way to break Beterbiev’s forward momentum and find a way to hurt him. Beterbiev’s determination to win makes his punching power even more daunting. The numbers tell the story. Together they threw approximately 1,000 punches, with Beterbiev far outpacing Bivol. Bivol, the skilled boxer, was up against a powerhouse in Beterbiev, whose combination of strength and smarts was hard to handle. With Beterbiev stepping into the ring injury-free and still showing impressive energy and the spirit to battle even at 40 years of age, Bivol has a tough mental and physical task ahead of him.
To dethrone Beterbiev, Bivol will need more than just skill. He’ll have to outposition Beterbiev (staying set to punch or orchestrate attacks from advantageous positions). Also, he must look to be first to strike and also last to do so during sequences, and he must withstand Beterbiev’s relentless offense with side exits (moving laterally) while staying close to his opponent’s shoulders and stepping around him instead of going straight back, to avoid getting countered.
If Bivol can’t adapt and take control early on and maintain it late, he might find himself in the same situation as before, running out of gas as the fight continues.
Who wins?
The path to victory for Bivol’s redemption will require a heavy dose of resiliency and output. However, like in the movies, the bogeyman always seems to catch up to the main character. And the bogeyman here happens to be Beterbiev. It’ll be a slightly different fight but the same outcome: Beterbiev for the win.