DUNEDIN, Fla. — First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays failed to come to terms on a contract extension prior to his Monday night deadline, paving the way for the 25-year-old star to hit free agency in November.
Guerrero, a four-time All-Star and son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, had set the deadline to reach an extension. Without a deal in place, Guerrero plans to cut off talks and play out the season as an impending free agent, according to sources.
“They had their numbers; I had my numbers,” Guerrero said Tuesday.
The inability to strike a deal is the latest blow for the Blue Jays, whose pursuit of franchise-caliber talent in recent years was a black mark for the franchise. Toronto’s heavy recruitment of two-way star Shohei Ohtani and outfielder Juan Soto wound up in disappointment, as they signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets, respectively, and the potential departure of their best homegrown talent since Hall of Famer Roy Halladay is even more acute.
Toronto could explore a trade for Guerrero, who would warrant one of the biggest returns in recent memory. The Blue Jays, sources said, are more inclined to start the season with Guerrero in their lineup and reassess the possibility of a trade as the July deadline approaches.
Over his six seasons in Toronto, Guerrero has developed into one of the game’s most fearsome hitters. Last season, he hit .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs and 103 RBIs. And come November, big-market suitors are expected lavish him with some of the largest contract offers in baseball history.
In the wake of the 15-year, $765 million contract the Mets this winter gave to Soto — who, along with Guerrero and Fernando Tatis Jr., were part of the all-time-great international signing class in 2015 — the potential free agent jackpot for Guerrero exceeds what the Blue Jays were willing to offer.
They had tried to lock Guerrero up long-term for years to no avail. With the deadline looming, negotiations that had been sporadic over the winter picked up this week with hopes of striking a deal.
Without one in place, Guerrero will report to the Blue Jays’ first full workout Tuesday with the specter of his free agency bound to loom over Toronto’s season after a last-place finish in the American League East last year.
Since he debuted shortly after his 20th birthday in 2019 and homered 15 times as a rookie, Guerrero has been one of baseball’s most-recognized players. His breakout season came in 2021, when Guerrero finished second to Aaron Judge in American League MVP voting, hitting .311/.401/.601 with 48 home runs and 111 RBIs.
Guerrero followed with a pair of solid-but-below-expectations seasons in 2022 and 2023, and in mid-May of last season, he sported an OPS under .750 as the Blue Jays struggled en route to an eventual last-place finish. Over his last 116 games, the Guerrero of 2021 re-emerged, as he hit .343/.407/.604 with 26 home runs and 84 RBIs.
Between Guerrero and shortstop Bo Bichette‘s free agency after the 2025 season, the Blue Jays faced a potential reckoning. While Bichette will play out the season and is widely expected not to re-sign with the Blue Jays, the team had hoped an extension for Guerrero would give them a franchise player around whom they could build.
With a payroll expected to exceed the luxury-tax threshold of $241 million, the Blue Jays will field a team with playoff aspirations — and one that just as easily could find itself toward the bottom of the standings, with the defending AL champion New York Yankees, much-improved Boston Red Sox, always-solid Tampa Bay Rays and young-and-talented Baltimore Orioles in the same division.
Already this winter, Toronto shook off the signings of Soto and first baseman Pete Alonso with the Mets, left-hander Max Fried with the Yankees and infielder Alex Bregman with the Red Sox to retool their roster. Toronto gave outfielder Anthony Santander a heavily deferred five-year, $92.5 million contract, brought in future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer on a one-year, $15.5 million deal, bolstered their bullpen with right-handers Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia, and traded for Platinum Glove-winning second baseman Andres Gimenez.
Toronto’s long-term commitments will allow for significant financial flexibility going forward — particularly if they re-allocate the hundreds of millions they offered Guerrero. In addition to Guerrero, Bichette and Scherzer, right-hander Chris Bassitt and relievers Chad Green and Erik Swanson are free agents following this season. Following 2026, the nine-figure deals of outfielder George Springer and right-hander Kevin Gausman come off the books as well.
Building around Guerrero would have been a good place to start. One of only a dozen players in MLB with at least two seasons of six or more Wins Above Replacement since 2021, Guerrero consistently finds himself near the top of MLB leaderboards in hardest-hit balls, a metric that typically translates to great success.
Like his father, who hit 449 home runs and batted .318 over a 16-year career, Guerrero has rare bat-to-ball skills, particularly for a player with top-of-the-scale power. In his six MLB seasons, Guerrero has hit .288/.363/.500 with 160 home runs, 507 RBIs and 551 strikeouts against 349 walks over 3,540 plate appearances.
Originally a third baseman, Guerrero shifted to first base during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Had the Blue Jays signed Alonso, they signaled the possibility of Guerrero returning full-time to third, where he played a dozen games last year.
Without an extension in place, the 6-foot-2, 245-pound Guerrero will have to wait to reset a market that previously had been topped by the eight-year, $248 million extension Miguel Cabrera signed just shy of his 31st birthday in 2014.
Teams without long-term first-base solutions beyond 2025 that could target Guerrero, who turns 26 in March, include the Yankees (Paul Goldschmidt is on a one-year deal) and Mets (Alonso can opt out of his two-year contract following the season).