For some teams, the make-or-break game on the schedule is pretty clear — a nonconference matchup against a big-name program or a showdown with a hated rival.
But sometimes the season-defining game sneaks up on a team. Maybe it’s an unexpected loss that sends a team into a tailspin, or a last-second win that sparks a hot streak.
Either way, there always are certain games that fans circle on the calendar with a heightened sense of anticipation. (We suspect players and coaches do too, but good luck getting them to admit it.)
With that in mind, we asked our college football reporters to predict what will be the season-defining game for each team in our Way-Too-Early Top 25 for the 2025 season.
2024 record: 14-2, 7-2 Big Ten
Season-defining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan
Is there a team in college football with a game more defining than Ohio State’s trip to Michigan on Nov. 29? Ohio State faces Texas in the opener in a rematch of this past season’s thrilling playoff semifinal — and what could be a showdown of No. 1 vs. No. 2. On Nov. 1, the Buckeyes will take on former defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and Penn State, ranked third in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 rankings. Yet neither of those scintillating matchups will trump “The Game” for the Buckeyes, who have lost four in a row in the series, including last season’s stunning 13-10 defeat at home. Ohio State rebounded from that devastating loss to roll through the playoff, capturing the program’s first national championship since 2014. Still, losing once to the Wolverines is unacceptable for Buckeye Nation, much less four straight. Ohio State can defeat Texas and Penn State. But if the Buckeyes lose yet again to Michigan, the season will seem like a disappointment for those in Columbus — short of it ending with another national championship. — Jake Trotter
2024 record: 13-3, 7-1 SEC
Season-defining game: Nov. 29 vs. Texas A&M
The Longhorns meet Ohio State in their season opener in one of the most intriguing nonconference games of 2025, and a rematch of the CFP semifinal at the Cotton Bowl. This one will look very different, with Ohio State losing a lot of proven star power and Texas beginning the Arch Manning era. But in the 12-team playoff era, the season opener doesn’t define your season any longer. For the Longhorns, that distinction could fall to their Nov. 29 home game against Texas A&M, the first time the Aggies head to Austin since 2010. The rivalry game will mark the end of a run in which Texas hosts Vanderbilt, which has Diego Pavia returning after the Longhorns escaped with a 27-24 win last season, followed by games against Georgia, which beat Texas twice last year; Arkansas; and then the Aggies in the final week of the regular season. With a schedule that also features unpredictable matchups against what should be improved Florida and Oklahoma teams and that Buckeyes game, the showdown with the Aggies could be a key final test. — Dave Wilson
2024 record: 13-3, 8-1 Big Ten
Season-defining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State
Get ready for all the narratives about James Franklin not being able to win the big one when the Nov. 1 trip to Ohio State rolls around, and that’s despite the Nittany Lions making it to the College Football Playoff semifinals last season before losing to Notre Dame. Franklin, for all his success in Happy Valley, is just 1-10 against Ohio State after losing 20-13 at home last season. And he’s just 4-20 against AP top-10 teams in his 11 seasons at Penn State. The numbers don’t lie, but his 2025 team has a chance to be his best yet, with several key veterans returning, including quarterback Drew Allar. With the playoff expanding to 12 teams, one loss — or even two — is no longer a killer. But given Penn State’s recent record against Ohio State, this is more than just a game. The drama is heightened by defensive coordinator Jim Knowles moving from Ohio State to Penn State in the aftermath of the Buckeyes’ national championship. Both teams will have bye weeks leading into the game, and for Penn State, it will be a chance to significantly strengthen its résumé after playing a soft nonconference schedule. The Nittany Lions open the season against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova, all at home. — Chris Low
2024 record: 14-2
Season-defining game: Sept. 13 vs. Texas A&M
A not-so bold prediction: Notre Dame will have a much tougher time surviving an early-season loss in 2025. Why? The Irish’s schedule is front-loaded with several tough opponents, and Notre Dame could fall out of the playoff race before things soften up during the second half. Notre Dame will have a good idea of its CFP position after its first two games, at Miami and the home opener against Texas A&M. I try to resist putting so much on a Week 1 game, so I’m going with the Texas A&M contest Sept. 13, which follows an open week. Notre Dame will have a sense of how its new quarterback performs at Miami, and how the defense is faring under new coordinator Chris Ash. The Irish will either enter the Texas A&M game in desperation mode or with a chance to establish the nation’s best two-week profile and validate themselves as CFP title contenders again. — Adam Rittenberg
2024 record: 11-3, 6-2 SEC
Season-defining game: Sept. 27 vs. Alabama
With Georgia playing one of the most difficult schedules in the FBS again in 2025, there are plenty of contests that might define what the Bulldogs hope will be a bounce-back campaign. SEC road trips to Tennessee on Sept. 13 and Auburn on Oct. 11 will be early tests for new quarterback Gunner Stockton (if he wins the starting job) and a rebuilt offensive line and defensive front seven. Home games against Ole Miss and Texas will be among the most important matchups in the SEC this season, along with Georgia’s annual contest against rival Florida in Jacksonville on Nov. 1. But no Saturday figures to be as important as Georgia’s Sept. 27 game against Alabama at Sanford Stadium, given the Bulldogs’ 1-6 record against the Crimson Tide under coach Kirby Smart. Last season, Georgia nearly rallied from a 30-7 deficit at the half in a 41-34 loss at Alabama. The Bulldogs held a 34-33 lead, but then watched it disappear on Jalen Milroe‘s 75-yard touchdown pass to Ryan Williams with 2:18 to play. Another loss to the Tide wouldn’t knock the Bulldogs out of the SEC title game or the CFP, as we saw last season, but it would put them in an early hole. — Mark Schlabach
2024 record: 13-1, 9-0 Big Ten
Season-defining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State
If Oregon starts the year 4-0, all eyes will be on its trip to Happy Valley to face Penn State on Sept. 27 for what could be one of the marquee games of the season. The teams didn’t play in the regular season last year, but Oregon comfortably beat the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten title game 45-37. The Ducks don’t play Ohio State or Michigan in the regular season, which adds to the importance of their trip to Penn State. The result could shape the Big Ten title race just as conference play begins. — Kyle Bonagura
2024 record: 10-4, 7-1 ACC
Season-defining game: Nov. 14 at Louisville
It’s tempting to suggest the opener against LSU will tell the story of the 2025 season for Clemson, but that wouldn’t be true. Look no further than last season, when the Tigers stumbled badly against Georgia in Week 1 but still won the ACC. It’s true, too, that there are other potential pitfalls along the way, including a home date with Syracuse in September and a trip to Chapel Hill to take on Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels in his first ACC game. But we’ll circle the Nov. 14 date at Louisville as the real make-or-break moment. The game comes on the heels of Clemson’s annual rivalry matchup against Florida State, and no visit to Louisville is easy. This Cards team might be Jeff Brohm’s best, and after Louisville whooped Clemson in Death Valley a year ago, it makes sense to think this is the showdown that will tell us how far the Tigers have come in their quest to get back to a national title game. — David Hale
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Season-defining game: Aug. 30 at Clemson
The winds of restlessness are blowing swiftly in Baton Rouge as Brian Kelly opens his fourth season as coach. The key word here is “opens” because LSU has opened every season under Kelly with a loss, which makes the Aug. 30 opener at Clemson all the more important. LSU needs to make a major push for the playoff this season, and more specifically, probably needs to make the CFP to take the heat off Kelly and get the program headed in the right direction. LSU’s past three openers were a 27-20 defeat last season to USC (which lost six games) and two losses to Florida State. The SEC schedule is daunting enough, and although winning at Clemson is never an easy task, LSU has Florida at home two weeks later and then a trip to Ole Miss to close out a challenging September. — Low
2024 record: 11-2, 7-2 Big 12
Season-defining game: Oct. 18 vs. Utah
Pretty much any time BYU and Utah get together it’s must-watch TV. And after a tight contest that ended with the Cougars getting the better of the Utes by a single point in Salt Lake City last year, the game moves to Provo this season and sits right in the middle of BYU’s schedule. With tough games at Arizona before and at Iowa State after the Utah matchup, the rivalry game could set the tone for how the rest of the season goes for the Cougars. With both teams likely to compete for what looks like a wide-open Big 12, an already-charged game should have more than just interstate bragging rights on the line. — Paolo Uggetti
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Season-defining game: Oct. 25 vs. Alabama
A disclaimer: South Carolina’s annual contest against instate rival Clemson in the regular-season finale is always going to be the measuring stick for whether the year went well. But if the Gamecocks are going to surpass last season’s 9-4 campaign, they’ll probably have to take care of business in their Aug. 31 opener against Virginia Tech in Atlanta and hold serve in their seven home games. South Carolina’s four SEC road contests aren’t going to be easy: at Missouri on Sept. 20, LSU on Oct. 11, Ole Miss on Nov. 1 and Texas A&M on Nov. 15. The most difficult home game figures to come against Alabama on Oct. 25. The Gamecocks nearly knocked off the Crimson Tide last season, falling 27-25 in Tuscaloosa. After LaNorris Sellers hooked up with Nyck Harbor for a 31-yard touchdown with 43 seconds left, South Carolina recovered an onside kick. Sellers’ long pass toward the goal line was intercepted with 13 seconds to go. With games at Ole Miss and Texas A&M coming after the Alabama matchup, the Gamecocks need to figure out a way to finish this one. — Schlabach
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Season-defining game: Nov. 1 vs. Arizona State
The Week 0 opener in Ireland against Kansas State promises to be compelling, and the Cy-Hawk rivalry home game against Iowa always matters. But the most challenging stretch of Iowa State’s schedule is back-to-back home games against BYU on Oct. 25 and Arizona State on Nov. 1. Both opponents return a lot of talent after finishing tied with Iowa State and Colorado atop the Big 12 conference standings in 2024, and the Sun Devils trounced the Cyclones 45-19 in the Big 12 title game last December with a CFP bid on the line. Quarterback Rocco Becht and Iowa State have an off week right before this run and need to be ready to play their best football by the time BYU and Arizona State visit Ames. The Cyclones went 5-1 in games decided by one-score margins last season. That’s what it takes to get to the Big 12 championship game, and they’ll have to do it all over again this fall. — Max Olson
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Season-defining game: Oct. 18 vs. Tennessee
Alabama faces some key games the first half of the season, including a trip to Georgia on Sept. 27, but the so-called must-win game in 2025 is the Oct. 18 home matchup against Tennessee, aka the Third Saturday in October. The last thing Kalen DeBoer wants in his second season at Alabama is to lose back-to-back games to a rival the Crimson Tide have dominated for much of the past two decades. The Vols have won two of the past three games in the series. But that’s after Alabama won 15 in a row under Nick Saban. Tennessee last won back-to-back games in this rivalry in 2003-04. The game also comes at a point in the season when Alabama needs to be playing its best football. It is sandwiched between trips to Missouri on Oct. 11 and South Carolina on Oct. 25, and following the game against the Gamecocks, Alabama gets a bye before taking on LSU at home. In short, it’s difficult to see the Crimson Tide making the playoff if they lose at home to the Vols. — Low
2024 record: 10-3, 6-3 Big Ten
Season-defining game: Sept. 20 at Indiana
The Illini have big expectations for 2025 following a breakthrough 10-win season, and their schedule features a bunch of challenging early tests, including Duke, Indiana, USC and Ohio State. We’re going to find out a lot about Bret Bielema’s squad Sept. 20 when it opens Big Ten play on the road against Indiana. This is a veteran team that needs to replace only six starters this offseason and is built to win nail-biters after going 5-1 in games decided by one score last season. The Hoosiers have reloaded their roster via the transfer portal yet again entering Year 2 under Curt Cignetti and should be 3-0 heading into this showdown. For the Illini to take that next big step and get into the CFP the way Indiana did in 2024, winning this one sure would send a message. — Olson
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Season-defining game: Sept. 20 at Baylor
After last season’s run to the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff and a near win against Texas in the quarterfinals, Arizona State is clearly trending upward. But with a program of its track record, it’s fair to wonder what level is sustainable. Kenny Dillingham is one of the sport’s best young coaches — maybe the best — so the guess here is the Sun Devils will be a Big 12 power for the foreseeable future. It’s hard to identify any Big 12 game as a potentially season-defining one because of the parity in the conference, but the trip to Baylor on Sept. 20 should, at least, serve as an early barometer of what type of team ASU will be. — Bonagura
2024 record: 11-3, 8-0 ACC
Season-defining game: Oct. 18 at Clemson
Before last season, no school had ever started 2-0 in its first year in a power conference after moving up from the Group of 5. In its first season in the ACC, SMU was picked to finish seventh in the league’s preseason poll, then went 9-0 in conference games, making history as well as the College Football Playoff. But the Mustangs had to sweat that playoff spot after a comeback bid in the ACC title game against Clemson fell just short in a 34-31 loss. This year, the Mustangs travel to Clemson on Oct. 18, right in the heart of their schedule. SMU faces tests in the first four games against old rivals Baylor and TCU — both of whom were improved as last season went on — then plays a 10-win Syracuse team Oct. 4. After Clemson, the Mustangs face Miami on Nov. 1 and Louisville on Nov. 22. How SMU fares in that midseason game against the reigning ACC champ will go a long way toward proving whether the Mustangs are a threat to stick at the top of the ACC. — Wilson
2024 record: 9-4, 5-4 Big 12
Season-defining game: Nov. 1 vs. Texas Tech
Week 0 Farmageddon with Iowa State — in Dublin, no less — might be the juiciest date on Kansas State’s fall calendar. However, given the Wildcats’ status as co-Big 12 favorites with serious playoff aspirations in 2025, the timing of Texas Tech’s Nov. 1 visit to Bill Snyder Family Stadium feels especially consequential. Kansas State has won its past eight games against the Red Raiders dating to 2016. But this is a Texas Tech program that spent big on its offseason retool with an eye on postseason contention after elbowing into the conference title race this past fall. On the same day Arizona State visits Iowa State, this Week 10 matchup will almost certainly carry late-season Big 12 and playoff implications. For the Wildcats, an early November win over the Red Raiders could go a long way toward stamping the program’s ticket to a first conference title game appearance since 2022. And as Kansas State chases its first playoff berth under seventh-year coach Chris Klieman, the Nov. 1 date with Texas Tech should hold significant bearing on the Wildcats’ CFP résumé too. — Eli Lederman
2024 record: 11-2, 8-1 Big Ten
Season-defining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon
Coach Curt Cignetti’s encore from a record-setting Indiana debut will include more first-half tests, including a Sept. 20 visit from an Illinois team that could become the 2025 version of the Hoosiers, followed by a trip to Iowa. But if Indiana is to show it can compete with nationally elite programs, it must perform well Oct. 11 when it visits defending Big Ten champion Oregon. The trip comes following an open week and continues a road schedule that will be much tougher this season with the Iowa game and a Nov. 8 visit to Penn State. How Indiana plays in Eugene likely will determine whether the team is viewed as a true Big Ten/CFP contender. The Hoosiers’ only two losses in 2024 came against the teams that played for the national title, but they weren’t very competitive in either game. — Rittenberg
2024 record: 8-5, 4-4 SEC
Season-defining game: Sept. 13 at LSU
Prior to last season’s victory, Florida had lost five consecutive games against LSU. Florida finished the 2024 season strong, in part because of momentum gained after its win over then-No. 22 LSU in mid-November. The Gators went on to post four consecutive wins, showing a great measure of improvement from the team they were earlier in the season. In 2025, the Gators open their SEC slate on the road in Baton Rouge, and a win in that game against what will be one of the better quarterbacks they see all season in Garrett Nussmeier would go a long way in setting the table for the rest of their season. A loss in this game wouldn’t ruin their season by any stretch with the 12-team playoff format, but there could be tons to gain with a solid victory in one of the toughest places to play in college football with quarterback DJ Lagway in his first full season as the starter. — Harry Lyles Jr.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 SEC
Season-defining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama
The Third Saturday in October is officially back. After Alabama ripped off 15 consecutive wins over Tennessee from 2007 to 2021, the streak was snapped in 2022. In 2025, the Volunteers will make the trip to Tuscaloosa in what could be the toughest game on their schedule all season. (A strong argument could also be made for the home contest vs. Georgia, but we’re giving weight to this game being on the road.) Nico Iamaleava has some of the greatest potential of any player in the country, and showing a leap in his second year as the starting quarterback is important for the success of coach Josh Heupel’s team. Iamaleava and the Volunteers could make a huge statement with a second straight win, and third in four years, over Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium. — Lyles
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 ACC
Season-defining game: Oct. 17 at Miami
All due respect to what could be a solid Pitt team, but the early schedule sets up nicely for Louisville to enter its Oct. 17 showdown with Miami at a sterling 5-0. Last year’s game against the Canes was a shootout, with the teams combining for 97 points and nearly 1,000 yards of offense. Miami escaped that one with a seven-point win, and this year’s game is in Miami, making the job that much tougher for Louisville. But Jeff Brohm’s team looks poised to contend at a high level, and if the Cards can pull off the win over the Canes, it’ll signal that Louisville is for real in 2025. — Hale
2024 record: 8-5, 5-4 Big Ten
Season-defining game: Nov. 29 vs. Ohio State
The Wolverines have an intriguing nonconference Week 2 tilt at Oklahoma. But Michigan’s resurgence over the past four years has been defined by its dominance over rival Ohio State. The Wolverines will have an opportunity to win their fifth in a row in the series Nov. 29 at the Big House, a feat Michigan hasn’t achieved since the 1920s. (The Wolverines tied the Buckeyes in 1992, buttressing four straight prior wins and another victory in 1993; a 1949 tie interrupted four- and two-game winning streaks from 1945 to 1951.) On the heels of the 2023 national championship campaign, Michigan had to retool last season under first-year head coach Sherrone Moore with several new starters on both sides of the ball. But the Wolverines salvaged the season with the shocking 13-10 upset of Ohio State in Columbus (followed by a bowl victory over Alabama). Maintaining their stranglehold in the rivalry could very well propel the Wolverines to the Big Ten title game and, potentially, the playoff in Moore’s second season. — Trotter
2024 record: 8-5, 5-3 SEC
Season-defining game: Nov. 15 vs. South Carolina
It’s a tricky schedule for Texas A&M in Year 2 under coach Mike Elko. The Aggies’ trips to Notre Dame (Sept. 13), LSU (Oct. 25) and Texas (Nov. 29) are daunting, and early conference visits from Auburn and Florida should give us at least some sense by mid-October of Texas A&M’s legitimacy as a playoff contender. But if the Aggies are still hanging around the postseason conversation come the final month of the regular season, their date with South Carolina at Kyle Field on Nov. 15 could be pivotal. Texas A&M posed briefly as a CFP contender last fall before a Nov. 2 walloping from the Gamecocks kicked off four Aggies losses in their final five games. Sandwiched between a trip to Missouri and a Nov. 22 nonconference matchup with Samford, the visit from South Carolina could be the swing game on Texas A&M’s 2025 calendar and a crucial résumé-padder before the regular-season finale at Texas, especially if the Aggies can score a key win at Notre Dame or LSU earlier in the fall. — Lederman
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 ACC
Season-defining game: Nov. 22 at Virginia Tech
It is hard to choose games early in the year as “season-defining,” though Notre Dame to open the schedule and Florida three weeks later certainly qualify. The truth is, the Hurricanes could drop both of those, endure backlash from their fan base, and go on a run to win the ACC and still make the College Football Playoff. That is why I am picking the game at Virginia Tech on Nov. 22. Miami had every opportunity to make the ACC championship game in 2024, but dropped two road matchups in November that ultimately cost it a spot in Charlotte. Lo and behold in 2025, Miami finishes the season with two road games — at the Hokies, their longtime rival from the Big East; and at Pitt. For the Hurricanes to once again put themselves in position to make it to Charlotte, they likely will need a victory in what is sure to be a hostile (and cold) environment against a team that will want to make up for what it perceives to be a win over Miami that was taken away in 2024 when officials overturned what was initially called the winning touchdown catch. — Andrea Adelson
2024 record: 12-2, 7-0 Mountain West
Season-defining game: Oct. 4 at Notre Dame
Even though the relaunched Pac-12 has yet to release its full schedule, there’s no doubt which game the Broncos will have circled on their calendar. On Oct. 4, the Broncos will head to South Bend to face Notre Dame in what will likely be their toughest matchup of the season. With no Ashton Jeanty in tow, this game will be a proving ground for how coach Spencer Danielson, quarterback Maddux Madsen and the rest of the Broncos will be able to maintain their momentum following a playoff berth last year. Boise will certainly enter as underdogs to what should be another title-contending Notre Dame squad, but if there’s any position the Broncos are comfortable in, it is that one. — Uggetti
2024 record: 10-3, 5-3 SEC
Season-defining game: Nov. 15 vs. Florida
Once again, Ole Miss has what appears to be a manageable schedule, as it plays the same conference opponents it did in 2024 only in reverse — home games last season are road games this year. The easy one to choose here is the game at Georgia on Oct. 18. But remember, the Rebels easily beat the Bulldogs 28-10 last season. Where they tripped up was against teams they should have beaten, and that ultimately cost them a spot in the CFP. That is why I am going with a bit of a wild card — vs. Florida on Nov. 15. That third loss in 2024 to the Gators is what did in the Rebels. Based on the way the 12-team playoff went in Year 1, it stands to reason that getting at least 10 wins will either lead to an SEC championship game appearance or possible at-large playoff spot. Ole Miss does get LSU and South Carolina at home this year. So I am going to project that Ole Miss will be in position for another playoff run by the time it plays the Gators. — Adelson